NVIDIA Claims That GPU Prices Will Continue Increasing through Q3 2018

Megalith

Megalith

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According to NVIDIA, graphics cards are only going to get more expensive: in a discussion at Massdrop, the company advises that prices will increase through Q3 2018. NVIDIA blames the mining craze and lack of vRAM for the situation.

Miners are currently purchasing every new high-end GPU they can get their hands on and as a result of that, all NVIDIA and AMD partners have a hard time replacing them. On the other hand, Apple and Samsung are willing to pay more for the memory that will be used in their smartphones.
 
Newer generation smartphones use LPDDR4 and Graphics cards use GDDR5/5X/HBM2

So it's not like Apple and Samsung are competing for the same memory types that graphics cards use. Unless they are manufacturing LPDDR4 instead of GDDR at their fabs because its more profitable.

(Unless I'm missing something which might well be the case).
 
Then make some cards on previous generation memory. Just make some damn cards and get them to market. Make and they will buy!
 
If the fabs can make more money with cellphones then they are going to make memory for cell phones. Seeing as how Samsung is a memory manufacture seems to me they aren't going to slit their own throats for the sake of graphics cards manufactures. Fabs aren't set up in a day, so even if AMD and Nvidia invested in memory fabs for their own stuff it would be years before they produced their first kilobyte of memory.
 
Nukester said:
Then make some cards on previous generation memory. Just make some damn cards and get them to market. Make and they will buy!
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Not an option. Do you really think any of the three memory companies are still making older versions of GDDR?

DukenukemX said:
Tesla has a battery problem, Elon Musk creates the Gigafactory.

Nvidia has a memory shortage. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ you're right fucked now in the down under. Good thing my graphic cards are going up in price. Nothing can compete against me now fuckers.
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Right. Because Nvidia can easily buy land, build a factory, aquire licenses to relevant patents, convince the big three memory companies to allow them to even make GDDR, develop their own tech, and get mass production going all before Q3 of this year. And that's all without going into the likely tens of billions of dollars needed to do all of that.
 
I'm still shocked that the crypto craze hasn't cooled a little bit. Those that are making true money off of it are the investors that pumped it up to astronomical valuation then dumped and those that mined early and often and had the wherewithal to hold on to the coin. Nowadays it just seems that everyone is on the bandwagon chasing the next big thing which almost always is a sunk cost.

kirby's point is extremely valid (fabbing for biggest profits), but remember these are corporate organizations and now realize that they can blame others for increasing end user costs. I've recommended similar action in meetings I've been a part of (different industry) and I'm sure similar meetings are happening at both Nvidia and AMD. There is this internet theory that they will release mining specific cards, but why? If they can bump up the MSRP, increase profits, meanwhile not reducing demand it makes no sense. On the other hand short term gains for long term pain because if they can't get their devices in the hands of actual users...
 
haste. said:
I'm still shocked that the crypto craze hasn't cooled a little bit. Those that are making true money off of it are the investors that pumped it up to astronomical valuation then dumped and those that mined early and often and had the wherewithal to hold on to the coin. Nowadays it just seems that everyone is on the bandwagon chasing the next big thing which almost always is a sunk cost.

kirby's point is extremely valid (fabbing for biggest profits), but remember these are corporate organizations and now realize that they can blame others for increasing end user costs. I've recommended similar action in meetings I've been a part of (different industry) and I'm sure similar meetings are happening at both Nvidia and AMD. There is this internet theory that they will release mining specific cards, but why? If they can bump up the MSRP, increase profits, meanwhile not reducing demand it makes no sense. On the other hand short term gains for long term pain because if they can't get their devices in the hands of actual users...
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What people miss is that this isn't just caused by the mining craze. There was always going to be a shortage as Samsung and co shut down HBM and GDDR lines to focus on more profitable avenues. The mining boom just made it worse along with scalpers jumping on board to make a quick buck due to the shortages.
 
haste. said:
I'm still shocked that the crypto craze hasn't cooled a little bit. Those that are making true money off of it are the investors that pumped it up to astronomical valuation then dumped and those that mined early and often and had the wherewithal to hold on to the coin. Nowadays it just seems that everyone is on the bandwagon chasing the next big thing which almost always is a sunk cost.

kirby's point is extremely valid (fabbing for biggest profits), but remember these are corporate organizations and now realize that they can blame others for increasing end user costs. I've recommended similar action in meetings I've been a part of (different industry) and I'm sure similar meetings are happening at both Nvidia and AMD. There is this internet theory that they will release mining specific cards, but why? If they can bump up the MSRP, increase profits, meanwhile not reducing demand it makes no sense. On the other hand short term gains for long term pain because if they can't get their devices in the hands of actual users...
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Here's the problem: Say the foundries increase production by creating new factories. Then the mining craze dies down. Now they have the reverse problem, where an oversupply leads to massive price drops. Good for us, but really bad for their bottom line. From their perspective, better a shortage then an oversupply.
 
Both Derangel and Gamerk2 are 100% correct, but at the same time increasing GPU prices are a result of a management decision... and right now they have a scapegoat.

Edit: I work in FI and our margins were constricting for a decade. When the fed finally starting moving, I moved at a faster pace trying to increase gap as profits became stagnant yoy. We "blamed" the fed. Nvidia and AMD are "blaming" the miners and cellphones. I also don't know enough about their fabbing processes to know if they are or are not producing memory for their cards or maximizing profits.

I don't really have a problem with it, but what they are attempting here is to prep consumers that the next generation is going to have a premium that is possibly not necessary...
 
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haste. said:
Both Derangel and Gamerk2 are 100% correct, but at the same time increasing GPU prices are a result of a management decision... and right now they have a scapegoat.
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The MSRP on cards Nvidia sells directly hasn't budged at all. AIBs have raised prices in reaction to memory costs being higher, but it seems like Nvidia is pretty content with their current direct-sales prices. Nvidia has no control over the cost of memory or the supplies of memory chips. They, and the AIBs, get what they get at whatever prices the memory companies demand that they pay.
 
Derangel said:
The MSRP on cards Nvidia sells directly hasn't budged at all. AIBs have raised prices in reaction to memory costs being higher, but it seems like Nvidia is pretty content with their current direct-sales prices. Nvidia has no control over the cost of memory or the supplies of memory chips. They, and the AIBs, get what they get at whatever prices the memory companies demand that they pay.
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Touche. But I would still be prepared for a price hike on MSRP of the next generation. Not sure what the date is, haven't had time to do a simple google ;) , but it sure seems like they are dropping Q3...
 
My guess:

GTX 2060 = $499
GTX 2070 = $699
GTX 2080 = $999
GTX 2080Ti = $1499

And expect street prices to be 30% higher. :wacky:
 
That's why I upgraded my 1080 sli to a single 1080ti and my son's 980sli to a 1080ti while I could cause of fear of w hst the prices will be tomorrow!
 
Yeah have 2 1080ti's not upgrading for awhile. Lucky in USA because in Canada total rip off even on Craigslist. Kind you just got Oculus for $450 with 3 sensors. Trying to gety son a PSU and Video Card been price headache.
 
MavericK said:
Video cards are already $700+ MSRP. If the base price continues to rise, I'll just play games on console or find a new hobby.
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But thats only the high end fringe of GPUs. Most gamers aren't on 1080Ti's if you look at Steam stats. Median GPU is far, far lower.

But to play devil's advocate, if PC gaming with a luxury class GPU was so important, why not already have one? Prices have only been higher since last month. 1080Ti came out early last year, and 1070/1080 came out mid 2016.

I get the sense that for some people complaining about the shortage and 20% higher pricing, it's a case of suddenly wanting it more simply because of it's new scarcity. Human nature, FTL.
 
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MavericK said:
Video cards are already $700+ MSRP. If the base price continues to rise, I'll just play games on console or find a new hobby.
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I foresee many people reacting like this. Neither Nvidia nor AMD are at risk in the current market, as crypto will probably keep going for many months and memory is still nowhere to be found: the problem is 1-2 years from now, when crypto gets complex enough that GPUs are not cost effective anymore and ASICS or other specialized hardware is needed. By then, if many of us become console gamers, it'll hurt Nvidia's and AMD's business unless the car industry takes gamers' place and keep bringing them money. Even then, as that market evolves, they'll need more specialized hardware, possibly sidestepping Nvidia/AMD. In either case, gamers seem to be fading from Nvidia/AMD as a valuable market.

Case in point: I bouthgt 8GB RAM and a GTX 1060 3GB last year expecting to upgrade more seriously this year. Instead, I haven't touched my PC hardware due to unreasonable pricing. I bought a PS4 on black friday and already own 5 games. The money I expected to put towards my PC is now going to Sony. If prices - likely - remain unreasonable, I'll keep gaming on a console. Fast forward 1-2 years: if my PC ends up relegated as a work machine, then I don't NEED that 1TB NVME SSD to hold games for fast loading. I don't NEED those 16GB RAM to load Office documents. I don't NEED that better GPU to render the desktop. That's a good $1000 no longer spent on my PC. And $1000 will get you a LOT of console games.
 
Do they really want to push us to the consoles / cloud gaming? Because fuck that.
 
Odd dint Nvidia just say there was no memory shortage and AMD was full of it and now they say there is a shortage.
 
odditory said:
No, thats only the most high end fringe of GPUs. Most gamers aren't on 1080Ti's if you look at Steam stats. Median GPU is far, far lower.

But to play devil's advocate, if PC gaming with a luxury class GPU was so important, why not already have one? Prices have only been higher since last month. 1080Ti came out early last year, and 1070/1080 came out mid 2016.

I get the real sense that for some people complaining about shortage and pricing, it's a case of suddenly wanting it more simply because it's become scarce.
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People still want to upgrade from time to time. Say you decided over Christmas to purchase a HTC Vive, Oculus Rift, 4K monitor, just got a job professionally editing videos, etc. You still want a higher tier GPU to run those tasks regardless of what you previously owned.
 
Verge said:
Last i checked, tesla was buying batteries from japan, because the gigafactory was a hot mess of poop.
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Yes but eventually that factory will be operational and pumping out batteries.

Derangel said:
Right. Because Nvidia can easily buy land, build a factory, aquire licenses to relevant patents, convince the big three memory companies to allow them to even make GDDR, develop their own tech, and get mass production going all before Q3 of this year. And that's all without going into the likely tens of billions of dollars needed to do all of that.
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If you think this hot mess can be fixed by Q3 of this year, you're an even bigger idiot than I thought. This mess is going to have long lasting ramifications for years. GPU prices will have permanently risen. It's not like Nvidia wasn't busy raising prices of GPUs with the Founders Edition. So this works out perfectly for them.

However long it takes, it makes sense for Nvidia to make their own factory. If making memory turns out to be not worth it, they can always sell the factory. ATI/AMD has been innovating memory for a long time, such as GDDR and HBM. So Nvidia can take time in their busy schedule of counting money to build a factory.

To be honest we need to innovate here to solve this issue. We can't just prey for things to get better, cause they won't without prices staying high. Maybe we should divorce the graphics card for a motherboard socket, with ram slots? Maybe we should put more emphasis on APU's with better graphics, rather than accepting the best we can get is the Ryzen 2400G? There's a lot of room for innovation, but this always requires an investment. Mining isn't going away, and GPU prices were rising even before the mining craze picked up.
 
Companies like bitmain need to make a competing product. Bitmain is great for mining btc. But maybe if they made miners for other coins and underprice videocards. They could make a killing.
 
odditory said:
No, thats only the most high end fringe of GPUs. Most gamers aren't on 1080Ti's if you look at Steam stats. Median GPU is far, far lower.

But to play devil's advocate, if PC gaming with a luxury class GPU was so important, why not already have one? Prices have only been higher since last month. 1080Ti came out early last year, and 1070/1080 came out mid 2016.

I get the real sense that for some people complaining about shortage and pricing, it's a case of suddenly wanting it more simply because it's become scarce.
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I already do have one, check my sig. My point is, even when bought this card at MSRP I felt the prices were getting crazy. If they continue to skyrocket, I won't be continuing to buy them.

If others want to, more power to them. It pains me to say it because I have been a PC gamer all my life, but between this and AAA developer bullshit that seems omnipresent these days, they are taking the industry in a direction I may not follow.
 
Get one of the new AMD APUs and build a HTPC instead. Those things can run emulators all the way up to a Wii U. Of course they can run PC games also, but at lower settings and resolutions.






Intel has that new hybrid chip that they collaborated with AMD on also. I guess what I'm saying is that there are more ways than one to skin a cat. I wouldn't worry about a discrete GPU unless you absolutely needed one for tasks like VR.

 
odditory said:
No, thats only the most high end fringe of GPUs. Most gamers aren't on 1080Ti's if you look at Steam stats. Median GPU is far, far lower.

But to play devil's advocate, if PC gaming with a luxury class GPU was so important, why not already have one? Prices have only been higher since last month. 1080Ti came out early last year, and 1070/1080 came out mid 2016.

I get the real sense that for some people complaining about shortage and pricing, it's a case of suddenly wanting it more simply because it's become scarce.
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Remember that steam stats are skewed terribly by people in countries that do not have access and/or resources to purchase high end hardware... this is a site dedicated to PC enthusiasm.
 
kirbyrj said:
Newer generation smartphones use LPDDR4 and Graphics cards use GDDR5/5X/HBM2

So it's not like Apple and Samsung are competing for the same memory types that graphics cards use. .
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Fab space is limited and the same fabs that are used to produce the memory for smartphones etc. are used to produce GDDR5/6/etc.

Since the demand for memory in smartphones is so high and more profitable they're going to prioritize that over GDDR5/6/etc.

This situation probably won't change until the Chinese nationally funded fabs (they're spending something insane like $24 billion USD to build them, estimated spending is supposed to be around $70 billion USD by 2021) come online to start producing modern (ie. high cap/seed LPDDR4/3) smartphone memory en masse in early-mid 2019 or so.

At least that is what is rumored anyways. If there are delays getting those fabs up and running, or their supply gets bought up Chinese companies for their own products (don't laugh its a real possibility), or if things go incredibly right and they get up and running sooner that time table will change of course.
 
Nukester said:
Then make some cards on previous generation memory. Just make some damn cards and get them to market. Make and they will buy!
Click to expand...
All the GDDR stuff is fab limited + they designed the cards with GDDR5x/6/HBM/HBM2 in mind so there is no easy switch possible most likely.

You can't just slap whatever memory you want on a PCB with these GPU's. The on die memory controllers have to be designed for the memory in question.

So changing the memory requires a fairly major die respin which takes months to do at a minimum and that is if there are no architectural changes that have to be made to the GPU elsewhere.
 
Darkswordz said:
My guess:

GTX 2060 = $499
GTX 2070 = $699
GTX 2080 = $999
GTX 2080Ti = $1499
Click to expand...
My WAG MSRP's would be: 2060= $299, 2070= $450, 2080= $550, and the 2080Ti= $799.

Those prices are all quite a bit over where the GTX10xx cards MSRP'd at. Price gougers and shortages could easily push the prices up to where you're expecting though.
 
cageymaru said:
Get one of the new AMD APUs and build a HTPC instead.
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Those APU's are fine low end/entry level gaming oriented devices but they don't really compete with dGPU's much less the new dGPU's NV is going to have out soon.

Price points are totally different too.

AMD really needed Vega to work properly and/or have Navi out now if they wanted to compete with the new high and mid end NV dGPU's that are coming.

As is they'll have to compete on price in the low and mid-ish range dGPU market with a revamped Vega. Too bad really. My R9 290 has been great for a long time for me and I'd like to buy them again since I dislike some of NV's business practices.
 
So much negativity. Maybe it will all work out in the end and everyone will be happy.

The shortage w/AMD has been much worse. At least you can get a 1080ti for 50-100 over MSRP if you use nowinstock and get the text alerts. I know this because It's worked well for me just recently. The Vega cards though? 100% markup and practically never in stock. AMD is flat out to lunch.
 
Riptide_NVN said:
So much negativity.

The shortage w/AMD has been much worse. The Vega cards though? 100% markup and practically never in stock. AMD is flat out to lunch.
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I don't think HBM2 availability can be pinned entirely on AMD.
 
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