NVIDIA Claims That GPU Prices Will Continue Increasing through Q3 2018

[ManofGod]

What nVidia is saying is in order to procure more memory so they can make more GPUs, they will need to pay more for said memory and thus MSRPs will increase as a result.

HP just announced on Thursday night that their prices will be increasing to cover the cost of higher memory. This is a big development as it’s an acknowledgement that high memory prices are the new norm and not temporary or “cyclical”.


China won’t produce competitive lastest gen memory until the 2030s. They are not the markets saviors unless you’re looking for super cheap, low performance Chinese gadgets.

In other words, price fixing, the supposed legal way.

 

[triwolf]

Only the factory OC it came with. I got 2.4 years out of it. But like I said I figured to get a card two generations later...if it had lasted a full three years, and no mining craze, that would be great...but the current prices are just out of site for me right now. I think a 1070 would be about the same speed but those are about what I paid for this card, depressing.

The good news is turns out the original purchaser got it from Amazon (he couldn't remember so I had him check)...so armed with a receipt hopefully it will get repaired. It showed no signs of overheating. Literally smoked when it went out. But I'd been having some boot problems lately and though it's only been a few hours they seem to have gone away. The computer won't boot at all now with this card plugged in...so it's been on the way out for awhile I just didn't know what was causing the problem.

Just a month ago I was wondering if it would be worth selling my 770, but decided to keep it as a spare, glad I did...especially since x99 has no on board video.

Glad to hear you will probably get it repaired. Even a 770 is better than a lot of newer low end cards.

 

[triwolf]

In other words, price fixing, the supposed legal way.

There is a market demand driving it. I understand what you are saying, there are limits in the world though. As demand outpaces supply, it happens in markets, it's capitalism. She's a heartless one too, doesn't care how much you want to pay, you gotta beat the competition.

 

[Tyns]

In other words, price fixing, the supposed legal way.

No, not price fixing by any stretch of the imagination. See someone about your memory price anger.

 

[dgingeri]

So, this means top end video cards will never again be below $1000, maybe $1500.

 

[ManofGod]

There is a market demand driving it. I understand what you are saying, there are limits in the world though. As demand outpaces supply, it happens in markets, it's capitalism. She's a heartless one too, doesn't care how much you want to pay, you gotta beat the competition.

No, not price fixing by any stretch of the imagination. See someone about your memory price anger.

Ram is literally 3 times the price of what it was just 18 months ago. To Tyns, yeah, no price fixing there.

 

[dangerouseddy]

you don't need to fix ram prices just lower production so you don't go bankrupt, like some manufacturers nearly did in the past.

 

[triwolf]

Ram is literally 3 times the price of what it was just 18 months ago. To Tyns, yeah, no price fixing there.

Isn't there limited manufacturing? How can you price fix when you are making as much as you can and people are throwing money at you for it? There is one reason for constrained supply. If there actually is price fixing as a consumer I am for an investigation.

Here is some info from November 2017, it shows they increased production, hardly price fixing, it is demand! Then that still didn't help as prices are still high now:

https://www.pcgamer.com/samsung-to-increase-dram-output-as-ram-prices-continue-to-climb/

In a rare bit of good news in the memory sector, Samsung is planning to significantly ramp up its DRAM output, which hopefully means that better pricing is on the horizon.

It has not been a fun situation for anyone in need of new RAM or a memory upgrade. Prices have steadily climbed over the past year, and a report came out last month suggesting that memory pricing could jump by 40 percent or more by the end of the year, capping off what would be the largest annual increase ever.



"Just one year ago, DRAM buyers took full advantage of the oversupply (excess capacity) portion of the cycle and negotiated the lowest price possible with the DRAM manufacturers, regardless of whether the DRAM suppliers lost money on the deal. Now, with tight capacity in the market, DRAM suppliers are getting their 'payback' and charging whatever the market will bear, regardless of whether the price increases hurt the users’ electronic system sales or causes it to lose money," IC Insights said at the time.

Now a month and a half later, Korean IT news organization ETimes reports that Samsung is extending a DRAM production lines at a couple of its semiconductor plants. Apparently Samsung has been bolstering its operations with new equipment since early October, with mass production expected to take place in the first quarter of 2018.

"Internally, Samsung Electronics is not happy that SK Hynix and Micron, which lack technical skills, are making their biggest profits from their DRAM businesses," said a representative who is familiar with memory semiconductor markets, according to ETimes. "Some of Samsung Electronics’ personnel believes that this economic boom needs to be finished before China enters DRAM markets."

Samsung is one of the biggest DRAM producers in the world. If it goes through with its plan to increase production, it could drive down pricing, though this is not likely to occur until the second half of next year. In the meantime, prices are still headed upwards.

In September, we pointed to this Corsair Vengeance LPX 8GB DDR4-2400 memory module priced at $80, up from $27 in June 2016 on Amazon. Now six weeks later, it's gone up even more, settling at around $100.

If you are need of new memory, you may want to wait until the Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals start rolling into view.

 

[Tyns]

Ram is literally 3 times the price of what it was just 18 months ago. To Tyns, yeah, no price fixing there.

Read the definition of price fixing.

Capacity is expected to increase 20-25% this year.

 

[mesyn191]

China won’t produce competitive lastest gen memory until the 2030s.

They just started to produce standard DDR4 recently and the LPDDR4 is coming next year at the latest.

AnandTech just did a article on this recently so you can't claim to be informed on this subject at all if you think all the Chinese will be able to produce is "junk" memory.

Detailed information on the Chinese fabs is available on the professional semi news sites too if you want more detailed information about the processes and such BTW.

 

[Tyns]

They just started to produce standard DDR4 recently and the LPDDR4 is coming next year at the latest.

AnandTech just did a article on this recently so you can't claim to be informed on this subject at all if you think all the Chinese will be able to produce is "junk" memory.

Detailed information on the Chinese fabs is available on the professional semi news sites too if you want more detailed information about the processes and such BTW.

What density? Is it profitable? What's their capacity? What's their performance? Did you actually read the Anandtech article, slick?

 

[KedsDead]

So, this means top end video cards will never again be below $1000, maybe $1500.

I wouldnt say never.. but it could be 3 to 5 years..

 

[dgingeri]

Ram is literally 3 times the price of what it was just 18 months ago. To Tyns, yeah, no price fixing there.

Somebody doesn't know how free markets work.

When a product supply is lower than the demand at a certain price, the price goes up, one way or another, always. If the money price is capped through something like rent control, then the price becomes something else, such a reduced maintenance or service. In this case, the memory supply, or production capacity, is higher than the demand due to smartphones, video cards used in mining, and the demand for PCs suddenly rising due to the release of newer chips that brought competition for the first time in a decade. So, with these three trends hitting the market at nearly the same time, it caused a massive increase in the demand on a near fixed supply. This caused a rise in the price.

Now, I know what your type says about prices increasing due to increased demand: "It's profiteering by greedy manufacturers." Not so! The manufacturers rarely increase such prices in such situations. They are usually locked into a price range due to contracts with suppliers. It's the suppliers or retailers increasing prices. It's not wrong for them to increase prices, either, because if they didn't, they'd constantly be sold out. By raising the prices, they're able to keep a supply for the people who need it the most, and are willing and able to pay for it. Those prices directly reflect the value that the buyers put on the items. If you don't think it is worth that much, you don't have to buy it. Just keep going with what you have. If you are willing to pay that price for it, then it has that value to you. Plain and simple.

The current situation on video cards shows that they should likely be even higher priced, significantly higher, since the supply keeps drying up so quickly each time they're resupplied. Gamers obviously don't put the same value on those video cards, as it is fewer and fewer gamers buying them. They obviously have much higher value to the miners, as they keep buying them up even though the prices keep climbing. (Personally, I think the crypto craze is a huge bubble, and many are just doing it to profit, rather than to use the cryptocurrencies for any kind of commerce. This is all a huge game of poker. When the game ends, a lot of people are going to be hurting from it, and a lot fewer will be rich from it. Although, I will admit, I do not see a time when it will end at this time. It might take a decade to play out.) A significant increase in the price of video cards would show just how much the miners really value the cards. Will they continue to buy out the whole supply if the cards get up to $2500? $3000? $10,000? Who knows. Some might. The manufacturers won't see a dime of that, though. It will all be played by the suppliers, in the end.

There really is no way to get around this until it plays out. Perhaps the video card designers will make some version of the video cards that will not be as useful to miners but is great for games. Perhaps the difficulty of the calculations will reach so high that video cards can't contain them anymore, and it forces them up to ASICs. Perhaps the power requirements will reach so high that it will be better to use a hundred laptops instead of one video card to do the calculations. Perhaps the miners will simply ascend to godhood. In any case, it will play out, and we will be left with a crashing video card market.

It simply is the way it is with markets. Be patient.

 

[tetris42]

Somebody doesn't know how free markets work.

And someone doesn't remember history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing

Maybe it's price fixing, maybe it's supply and demand. But to just dismiss price fixing outright without hard evidence seems a little trusting to me.

Now, I know what your type says about prices increasing due to increased demand: "It's profiteering by greedy manufacturers." Not so! The manufacturers rarely increase such prices in such situations. They are usually locked into a price range due to contracts with suppliers. It's the suppliers or retailers increasing prices. It's not wrong for them to increase prices, either, because if they didn't, they'd constantly be sold out. By raising the prices, they're able to keep a supply for the people who need it the most, and are willing and able to pay for it. Those prices directly reflect the value that the buyers put on the items. If you don't think it is worth that much, you don't have to buy it. Just keep going with what you have. If you are willing to pay that price for it, then it has that value to you. Plain and simple.

What you're saying is all true, but you're leaving out one factor:

Gamers have been able to buy videocard prices at MSRB prices for over 20 years, usually at lower prices as time moves on. Occasionally you had paper launches where you couldn't buy a specific model, but not the videocard market as a whole. You keep framing this as what the customer wants v. how much they're willing to pay, but again, customers haven't had to do that for videocards for their entire history. If I buy tech stocks, I expect them to fluctuate a lot. If I buy a circular saw, I expect the price to be whatever the store is selling them at, and not have to move in or wait for the right times because they're fluctuating and rising so rapidly. Videocards as a whole have gone from a decades-long constant to Tickle Me Elmo status. Bring a 3x price increase to ANY market that's always had price stability and you'll have similar upsets.

Again, that doesn't change the reality of the situation, it's all true, but acting like this is all a wheeling and dealing game of calculation and movers when customers have ALWAYS been able to rely on price stability in the past ignores the historical framing of it. In other words, yes, it's now a game of poker that millions of people never had to play until now.

 

[c3k]

Prices at all-time high (relative to MSRP): manufacturer says, "Well, we see the prices just going up. You'd better by now to lock in while you can." I say...thanks for the "advice". I'll wait.

 

[RC-Heli-3D]

I just forked out $300 for a lightly used AMD R9 390x 8gb. I am not gonna wait around for prices to fall down.

I am back into gaming now!

 

[mesyn191]

What density? Is it profitable? What's their capacity? What's their performance? Did you actually read the Anandtech article, slick?

So good of you to admit you're in the wrong here by trying to so blatantly move the goal posts like that.

Even if density and performance are ho hum they're selling good enough DDR4 at volume which is a current gen product now and not in 2030 (IOW the exact opposite of what you were claiming) and with the crunch its a given they'll be profitable so you're going to have to suck it up and start dealing with a reality where you're going to be wrong about stuff from time to time.

 

[mesyn191]

Somebody doesn't know how free markets work.

The DRAM market is in no way or form a free market and probably never has been.

But then free markets don't really exist anyways outside of Intro to Economics classes that is.

 

[dgingeri]

The DRAM market is in no way or form a free market and probably never has been.

But then free markets don't really exist anyways outside of Intro to Economics classes that is.

Computer components are probably the least regulated market on the planet. They're closer to free markets than anything else we have.

 

[Tyns]

So good of you to admit you're in the wrong here by trying to so blatantly move the goal posts like that.

Even if density and performance are ho hum they're selling good enough DDR4 at volume which is a current gen product now and not in 2030 (IOW the exact opposite of what you were claiming) and with the crunch its a given they'll be profitable so you're going to have to suck it up and start dealing with a reality where you're going to be wrong about stuff from time to time.

Define “volume” when you don’t know their capacity. Not moving goal posts; these are the properties that define a successful mass production of memory. Your referenced article specifically states it’s “garbage” in nicer terms, but keep deluding yourself.

The DRAM market is in no way or form a free market and probably never has been.

But then free markets don't really exist anyways outside of Intro to Economics classes that is.

Lol what? Memory is sold to the highest bidder, the literal definition of a free market. You’re free to raise over $30B to start your own memory company with original tech and IP and if you complain about the high cost of entry, then you shouldn’t complain that existing producers can “only” increase capacity 20-25% this year.

 

[chrcoluk]

I'm still shocked that the crypto craze hasn't cooled a little bit. Those that are making true money off of it are the investors that pumped it up to astronomical valuation then dumped and those that mined early and often and had the wherewithal to hold on to the coin. Nowadays it just seems that everyone is on the bandwagon chasing the next big thing which almost always is a sunk cost.

kirby's point is extremely valid (fabbing for biggest profits), but remember these are corporate organizations and now realize that they can blame others for increasing end user costs. I've recommended similar action in meetings I've been a part of (different industry) and I'm sure similar meetings are happening at both Nvidia and AMD. There is this internet theory that they will release mining specific cards, but why? If they can bump up the MSRP, increase profits, meanwhile not reducing demand it makes no sense. On the other hand short term gains for long term pain because if they can't get their devices in the hands of actual users...

I only started mining in august last year, so a latecomer.

I have already almost made money back from selling mined coins to cover the cost of the hardware, yet I still own the hardware and crazy enough the hardware has gone up in value since I purchased it, so yep latecomers are still making money.

Now of course compared to early adopters it is small change, friend of mine made 30k GBP from mining.

 

[haste.]

I only started mining in august last year, so a latecomer.

I have already almost made money back from selling mined coins to cover the cost of the hardware, yet I still own the hardware and crazy enough the hardware has gone up in value since I purchased it, so yep latecomers are still making money.

Now of course compared to early adopters it is small change, friend of mine made 30k GBP from mining.

You hit breakeven after 3/4 Of a year and have paid off the fixed assets to get there. It's something absolutely but I was referring to much larger rates of return. A very good friend of my wife husband had well over 1mm worth of bitcoin at its peak. I haven't asked if he tried to sell or not... he started early and sat on it.

Edit: and ironically when I chatted with him about it he stated he was pretty certain some of it just "disappeared" from his wallets lol. He was holding it for a craze like this and wasn't often checking his coin balances!

Also have you taken into consideration additional electricity costs, degradation to hardware, etc. Those ancillary items start adding up as well.

 

[chrcoluk]

yeah I am talking profits not just revenue.

For some people, especially those too ill to work etc mining income can be a massive boon.

I would have made more money if I didnt sell immediatly when I had the coins but instead waited for growth spurts, as some coins were sold during dips.

Also I have only mostly been mining ETH and there is more profitable coins as well. Plus has probably been over a month of downtime.

e.g. right now my mining rig is down as its PSU is been used for testing my new coffee lake parts.

 

[~CS~]

If or when Etherium goes Proof of Stake, which may or may not happen this year, the demand for graphics card will drop sharply. Reality is, despite there being a ton of alts coins, only few are driving a real demand for hardware, Etherium being the main one, everything else is a drop in the bucket. Most people don't even realize what Etherium is, or what it is trying to accomplish.

 

[RC-Heli-3D]

From sitting here observing everything. I get the feeling that GPU's prices are gonna be dropping like flies soon. Ethereum is about to be done in my opinion. Zcash will be the next hot thing to take off.

 

[mesyn191]

Computer components are probably the least regulated market on the planet. They're closer to free markets than anything else we have.

Hahaha regulations having nothing to do with it. Its the market players themselves that manipulate the market. Click tetris42's link on DRAM price fixing and google the history on chaebols like Hynix while you're at it and learn a thing or 2. The DRAM market has been heavily manipulated in one form or another almost since it appeared decades ago.

Define “volume” when you don’t know their capacity.

They could only be producing 1 wafer a year and you'd still be in the wrong here since you're original claims didn't mention word one about volume or performance. But then its a multi billion dollar Chinese fab selling to other Chinese companies for the most part so its guaranteed they're producing good volumes. And the Anandtech article doesn't use the word "garbage" or call it "bad" either. CL15 DDR4 2133 isn't all that great but its far from garbage, its a common speed DRAM found in many PC's, which is what you're claiming they'd only be able to produce.

Lol what? Memory is sold to the highest bidder, the literal definition of a free market.

LOL nope. The DRAM fabs routinely restrict supply to pump the prices up and collude together to do it and many of the Korean fabs get money from their govt. to stay in business no matter what if they decide to try flood the market with cheaper DRAM to push smaller fabs out of business. this has happened over and over again. Read tetris42's link and google the history on the chaebol's yourself too. If you don't want to bother to put the effort in and just want to be a low effort/dishonest poster lemme know so I can add you to my ignore list and save us all some trouble.

 

[Deleted member 126051]

Oh well.

Then I don't really need a new GPU this year.

 

[chrcoluk]

People said ETH was done last summer and look what happened.

Historically over a long period of time bicoin and ETH have grown, but do have highly chaotic short term patterns.

With that said I do too struggle to see how ETH can be a long term investment (decades) without it having a purpose other than mining and trading. Right now its effectively a digital version of gold.

 

[dgingeri]

Hahaha regulations having nothing to do with it. Its the market players themselves that manipulate the market. Click tetris42's link on DRAM price fixing and google the history on chaebols like Hynix while you're at it and learn a thing or 2. The DRAM market has been heavily manipulated in one form or another almost since it appeared decades ago.


They could only be producing 1 wafer a year and you'd still be in the wrong here since you're original claims didn't mention word one about volume or performance. But then its a multi billion dollar Chinese fab selling to other Chinese companies for the most part so its guaranteed they're producing good volumes. And the Anandtech article doesn't use the word "garbage" or call it "bad" either. CL15 DDR4 2133 isn't all that great but its far from garbage, its a common speed DRAM found in many PC's, which is what you're claiming they'd only be able to produce.


LOL nope. The DRAM fabs routinely restrict supply to pump the prices up and collude together to do it and many of the Korean fabs get money from their govt. to stay in business no matter what if they decide to try flood the market with cheaper DRAM to push smaller fabs out of business. this has happened over and over again. Read tetris42's link and google the history on the chaebol's yourself too. If you don't want to bother to put the effort in and just want to be a low effort/dishonest poster lemme know so I can add you to my ignore list and save us all some trouble.

You really, really don't understand what a free market is.

A free market is where the government doesn't interfere with regulations. In a market without government interference, price fixing can't happen because some supplier will move in to undermine any price fixing.

That's the whole point. Most government regulations wind up supporting only the big players. In the case of the previous price fixing, it was the overly broad patent laws, allowing patent on things that are simply evolutionary changes. Get rid of the regulations, and the markets fix themselves.

 

[tetris42]

You really, really don't understand what a free market is.

A free market is where the government doesn't interfere with regulations. In a market without government interference, price fixing can't happen because some supplier will move in to undermine any price fixing.

You forgot the part about how it's powered by unicorns. Seriously, this is naive beyond belief. What you're describing only works if there is a highly competitive environment in the first place. Here's a few scenarios of how price fixing would work without government interference:

1. The product in question is highly specialized or difficult to produce so even if there is competition, they simply don't have enough resources to meet the same volume of demand. So if I need 100 units of a product from company A and it raises its prices, and the competition from Company B can only produce 25 for me and will take them years (if ever) to ramp up production to 100 units, guess who I buy from? Ever notice

2. The product or sevice has a de facto monopoly is so dominant in the ecosystem, it's unrealistic to not use it and function for your business. Say I'm opening an online store and wish to boycott Google for people searching to find me, or start an online web show and not use Youtube. How successful do you think I'll be?

3. There are only a few dominant players, so they get together and agree not to undercut each other, because they can all raise their prices collectively. This one happens all the time. While ISPs are an easy example, I'm sure you would blame that all on government, so maybe look to why printer cartridges are so expensive sometime. Shouldn't free market competition be taking care of that?

4. Through various predatory tactics, you end up with a de facto monopoly and can use your power of scale to retain your dominance. Ever wonder why Luxottica controls just about everything sold in all eyeglasses stores?

People who worship at the altar of the free market are blind to what its limitations are.

 

[BSmith]

People still want to upgrade from time to time. Say you decided over Christmas to purchase a HTC Vive, Oculus Rift, 4K monitor, just got a job professionally editing videos, etc. You still want a higher tier GPU to run those tasks regardless of what you previously owned.

That is where I am at. At this point, I have decided I will not be gaming at all in 2018. Maybe 2019 will see the video card prices fall back to a resonable level, along with RAM. If not, then I'll wait some more.

One thing for sure. I am not buying any games until I can get my card upgraded. Consoles are not an option for me. I hate the controllers, for one.

 

[Icy006]

Crypto will keep going nuts, but a lot of coins are moving to proof of stake instead of mining. I just bit the bullet and upgraded my video card for way too much money so I can game like I want, and I fired up mining to subsidize it. Ah well..

 

[dgingeri]

You forgot the part about how it's powered by unicorns. Seriously, this is naive beyond belief. What you're describing only works if there is a highly competitive environment in the first place. Here's a few scenarios of how price fixing would work without government interference:

1. The product in question is highly specialized or difficult to produce so even if there is competition, they simply don't have enough resources to meet the same volume of demand. So if I need 100 units of a product from company A and it raises its prices, and the competition from Company B can only produce 25 for me and will take them years (if ever) to ramp up production to 100 units, guess who I buy from? Ever notice

2. The product or sevice has a de facto monopoly is so dominant in the ecosystem, it's unrealistic to not use it and function for your business. Say I'm opening an online store and wish to boycott Google for people searching to find me, or start an online web show and not use Youtube. How successful do you think I'll be?

3. There are only a few dominant players, so they get together and agree not to undercut each other, because they can all raise their prices collectively. This one happens all the time. While ISPs are an easy example, I'm sure you would blame that all on government, so maybe look to why printer cartridges are so expensive sometime. Shouldn't free market competition be taking care of that?

4. Through various predatory tactics, you end up with a de facto monopoly and can use your power of scale to retain your dominance. Ever wonder why Luxottica controls just about everything sold in all eyeglasses stores?

People who worship at the altar of the free market are blind to what its limitations are.

You have no confidence in the regular people, do you? While there are a lot of stupid people in the world, people generally won't pay more than they feel a product is worth to them. They aren't so stupid they'll pay whatever for all the products they want. If something is selling for more that what they consider the value for the product, then they won't buy it. That's why the iPhone isn't dominating the market, and Android is. People aren't complete sheep. It's just like they aren't going to start paying $15 for a fast food lunch because fast food employees want $15/hour. They'll just stop buying fast food, and those fast food employees will be unemployed.

So, no, in computer memory, there can't be any such thing as a "de facto monopoly". People and companies will just wait later for upgrades rather than pay too much. Just like right now.

 

[mesyn191]

A free market is where the government doesn't interfere with regulations. In a market without government interference, price fixing can't happen because some supplier will move in to undermine any price fixing.

This is like a middle schooler's/libertarian's view of what a free market is.

And its wrong. Or at least grossly incomplete.

Free markets have inherently nothing to do with govt. regulation by itself. They're about all the players in the market having equal information about what is going on in that market and free from manipulation by ANY actors (ie. private and/or govt) in that market. And no preventing fraud isn't a form of manipulation either BTW (which is the role that govt. normally tries to perform). This is basically impossible to achieve because someone always tries to put one over on all the other players in order to benefit themselves. Its just too profitable and easy not to.

This is why historically the closest things that ever existed to actual free markets quickly became dominated by monopolies and cabals of a very few and well connected rich people. If you google and read up on the markets of the 1600's,1700's, and 1800's you'll find many examples of this.

Most government regulations wind up supporting only the big players.

Do you not know what lobbying is or how it works in modern day US??

You have no confidence in the regular people, do you?

Look at the recent buttcoin bubbles, the various recent stock bubbles, and the housing bubble and then factor in the high debt load and low/nonexistent savings that most have and then tell me how you can have any confidence in the avg. person's ability to manage their money properly?

people generally won't pay more than they feel a product is worth to them.

This is a worthless platitude. Doubly so when you consider that "feel" isn't really quantifiable or often based on anything factual. I mean people thought paying $400K for pool side cabanas felt right during the peak of the bubble in 2005, did that make them right or correct?

People aren't complete sheep.

They're not but they are easily manipulated into making the wrong choices by the market and are often ill prepared to deal with that market emotionally since the market can alter their judgement about products through advertising and/or lobbying.

because fast food employees want $15/hour. They'll just stop buying fast food, and those fast food employees will be unemployed.

*rolls eyes* You realize that labor costs of food service make a minority of the costs and that the overall effect on pricing of such a wage increase won't be 1:1 right? That is if you raise wages by 30-40% you won't see a 30-40% increase in costs?

So, no, in computer memory, there can't be any such thing as a "de facto monopoly".

You're not making any sense. Just because people can withhold buying doesn't mean there can't be a monopoly. De facto or otherwise. Competitors, especially effective ones, don't just magically appear in highly capital intensive industries from nowhere you know. That is magical thinking.

 

[harmattan]

Damn, mesyn. Someone went to B-school

How on earth do we get back in this situation every 10 years or so where people drink the Gordon Gekko cool-aid and think that unbridled free market without restraint is a good thing? At it's core, the 2008 (and 2001, and 1989, and 1981, and 1881) debacle was create by, on one side, a wild west unregulated atmosphere (MBSs in the case of 2008), and on the other side, masses of people who can't do, or are willing to disregard, 6-grade level math (signing up for incredibly risky mortgages).

 

[tetris42]

You have no confidence in the regular people, do you? While there are a lot of stupid people in the world, people generally won't pay more than they feel a product is worth to them. They aren't so stupid they'll pay whatever for all the products they want. If something is selling for more that what they consider the value for the product, then they won't buy it. That's why the iPhone isn't dominating the market, and Android is. People aren't complete sheep. It's just like they aren't going to start paying $15 for a fast food lunch because fast food employees want $15/hour. They'll just stop buying fast food, and those fast food employees will be unemployed.

So, no, in computer memory, there can't be any such thing as a "de facto monopoly". People and companies will just wait later for upgrades rather than pay too much. Just like right now.

You're talking about me not having faith in people, I'm talking about you being naive as to what corporations are capable of. Sometimes the two are related, a lot of times they're not. I see this sort of thing every frigging day. Right now DuPont is under investigation for dumping cancer causing chemicals into the Ohio River for over half a century. So they were poisoning people for 50 years, this isn't even theoretical. How did "faith in people" save us from that?

But let's get back to your original point. You said it's impossible for price fixing to occur without government interference. Is that what happened the first time with D-RAM? It was government interference that allowed us to FIND OUT about the price fixing. To the best of my knowledge, the government wasn't responsible at all for that price fixing, giant companies colluding were (example #3 on my list). Companies are always going to be more interested in making money than they are in competing. If they can make even MORE money without competing, then they'll do it. Price fixing has ALREADY HAPPENED before in computer memory without government interference. So the ball's in your court, are you still telling me something is impossible that's already happened? Isn't that like saying the sun can't exist when we saw it shining yesterday?

 

[Armenius]

It might be too late to point out here, but NVIDIA didn't claim shit. A spokesperson at Massdrop claiming to have spoken to an NVIDIA representative made the claim. DSOG should be banned as a news source here, in my opinion.

 

[Tyns]

So, no, in computer memory, there can't be any such thing as a "de facto monopoly". People and companies will just wait later for upgrades rather than pay too much. Just like right now.

For graphics cards, yes, but for many uses of DRAM, no. Main memory is inelastic - you need it or you don't need it. If you determine you need 16 GB of RAM, do you buy 64 GB just because it's cheap? If you need 16 GB of RAM, do you only buy 4 GB if it's expensive? The difference now is that PC's are not the main source of demand anymore (from 60% of revenue down to 20%) - servers, cloud infrastructure, AI, AV, mobile phones etc. are, and they can't just not buy RAM as they would sell less products/services themselves.

Look at the recent buttcoin bubbles, the various recent stock bubbles, and the housing bubble and then factor in the high debt load and low/nonexistent savings that most have and then tell me how you can have any confidence in the avg. person's ability to manage their money properly?

I agree that the majority of people aren't that good with finances, but our financial system is set up to devalue our currency to devalue debt and encourage spending. Then with record low interest rates for over a decade, borrowing is encouraged. Combine both, and you get a fiscal policy designed to force people to borrow and spend to prop up the economy. This is government policy in action.

Damn, mesyn. Someone went to B-school

Oh god, laughing too hard. No, no he didn't.

It might be too late to point out here, but NVIDIA didn't claim shit. A spokesperson at Massdrop claiming to have spoken to an NVIDIA representative made the claim. DSOG should be banned as a news source here, in my opinion.

It corroborates what AMD said and is a viable excuse for why both companies can't increase their own capacity for production.

Is that what happened the first time with D-RAM? It was government interference that allowed us to FIND OUT about the price fixing.

Price fixing requires there be ample supply of product that would push prices down and the companies collude by collectively refusing to sell at those lower prices, forcing customers to buy at the artificially inflated prices. EVERYONE says there's a memory shortage, this is not disputed. Until you can demonstrate that there is a surplus of product, you cannot claim price fixing. If you think there is a vast conspiracy to inflate DRAM prices, then the biggest customers are also in on it (e.g. HPE/HPQ).

 

[tetris42]

Price fixing requires there be ample supply of product that would push prices down and the companies collude by collectively refusing to sell at those lower prices, forcing customers to buy at the artificially inflated prices. EVERYONE says there's a memory shortage, this is not disputed. Until you can demonstrate that there is a surplus of product, you cannot claim price fixing. If you think there is a vast conspiracy to inflate DRAM prices, then the biggest customers are also in on it (e.g. HPE/HPQ).

I'm saying the two aren't necessarily exclusive. I honestly don't know for the current memory shortage. It could be a combination of both, where there is collective price raising due to perceived shortage, but there is ALSO a shortage that goes beyond what the company was originally trying to induce artificially. It could be completely benign, who knows. The point is price fixing of memory HAS happened before from major vendors being in on the collusion, so that shouldn't be forgotten. And my reply was to someone saying price fixing was impossible without government interference, a claim I find kind of ridiculous.

 

[Aireoth]

Just wanted to say, notice how the AMD fans have gotten silent since AMD said the exact same thing?

Also TIL that many [H] ocp'ers think that price fixing and too much demand are the same thing.