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$2500 5090 I’m out

KazeoHin said:
That would be lovely, but if scalpers couldn't sell their cards, (and we've seen bag-holding scalpers multiple times throughout history, even recently with post-mining cards) then they lower their prices, many times to the point of losing money overall.

What does that mean? That means Scalpers don't have some sort of evil magic ability to make things more expensive. they're merely a consequence of asking prices not reflecting the actual price of an item. I don't like them. I wouldn't be one myself, but I also don't try to blame them for Nvidia's purposeful supply constraints.
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Scalpers can create a false demand by buying everything in sight and then trying to sell it for a profit. Granted it only works if people are willing to pay more but odds are in their favor if they can create artificial demand. I have a feeling this time around scalping will be less likely as I feel demand will be quite a bit lower, way less people have free money to be throwing around.
 
Gideon said:
Scalpers can create a false demand by buying everything in site and then trying to sell it for a profit.
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You can't create artificial demand. You can further limit the supply of something that has limited supply, and literally everyone that buys something has that effect.

To see this more concretely, consider software sales (say for a video game). There is no limited supply, so buying 100 million copies has zero effect on supply and prices would not adjust. The there would still be sales, because there would still be demand. Therefore, buying things cannot create artificial demand. It can limit supply of something that has limited supply, and if you understand supply demand equilibrium, then it is easy to see why that makes for higher prices.
 
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Gideon said:
Scalpers can create a false demand by buying everything in sight and then trying to sell it for a profit. Granted it only works if people are willing to pay more but odds are in their favor if they can create artificial demand. I have a feeling this time around scalping will be less likely as I feel demand will be quite a bit lower, way less people have free money to be throwing around.
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Buying everything do not create demand (well maybe it activate some fomo into some... but it also turn a lot of people down, lot of people would never buy outside a store).

Would they have purchassing volume, storage, distribution and coordination power between them, they could limit supply, but they would literally become bestbuy here, they usually try to sell what they have and thus changing nothing on the supply amount, just the price point, it is loosing money every month.

Take an example, concert or popular in demand sport event, you will see every seat used during the event-game, so we know for a fact that the scalper did not change the supply, same amount of ticket were sold to actual event goer than if they did not get involve, price still went crazy high.
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
You can't create artificial demand. You can further limit the supply of something that has limited supply, and literally everyone that buys something has that effect.
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Actually you can, just by buying everything that someone can produce and restricting the amount you sell. Either the manufacturer has to make more of them to overcome what you are buying up or you as the scalper now control the price. The scalper just needs enough people willing to pay over MSRP and keep the supply low from the manufacturer. So to the manufacturer it looks like there is more demand then there is. If you over compensate and build more then you flood the market because of the false demand and the prices crater. A ton rides on how much demand vs supply there is to begin with. I just think it will be less likely to happen as Mining and government money are not creating excessive demand this time. Would just be the AI market and I feel that is cooling off.
 
Gideon said:
Actually you can, just by buying everything that someone can produce and restricting the amount you sell. Either the manufacturer has to make more of them to overcome what you are buying up or you as the scalper now control the price. The scalper just needs enough people willing to pay over MSRP and keep the supply low from the manufacturer. So to the manufacturer it looks like there is more demand then there is. If you over compensate and build more then you flood the market because of the false demand and the prices crater. A ton rides on how much demand vs supply there is to begin with. I just think it will be less likely to happen as Mining and government money are not creating excessive demand this time. Would just be the AI market and I feel that is cooling off.
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This is incorrect...see my edits above.
 
Gideon said:
Actually you can, just by buying everything that someone can produce and restricting the amount you sell. Either the manufacturer has to make more of them to overcome what you are buying up or you as the scalper now control the price.
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A single scalper as so little volume that he cannot make the price move of an article made by the millions like Nvidia gpus.

All of them together maybe (specially if they now in advance they have that power) but they would need to coordinate together and hold the line to trickle the inventoray a certain way, but they do not know each other, have no platform to organise, etc... and it is in everyone single interest to sell it as fast they can near the launch when the interest for them is at their peak, chance are, launch day is the highest amount you can have for your cards.

You do not usually have stock room (scalpers are often just filling their own appartement-van with irrelevant volumes by definitions) if you start renting commercial-industrial space for your scalping, then you have giant cost and at those level you probably need a team of resellers, accounting, i.e. you became bestbuy, you either not have any volume and not able to affect supply or you are a giant resellers operation....

Gideon said:
because of the false demand
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What false demand, scalper cannot touch demand (or if they do they will get keep overstock on their hands)
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
You can't create artificial demand. You can further limit the supply of something that has limited supply, and literally everyone that buys something has that effect.
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Sure you can. We saw it with toilet paper during the pandemic. No one needed that much TP but because a small group of people started to horde it, everyone else felt like they needed to stock up anytime the shelves were stocked.
 
WilyKit said:
Sure you can. We saw it with toilet paper during the pandemic. No one needed that much TP but because a small group of people started to horde it, everyone else felt like they needed to stock up anytime the shelves were stocked.
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residential Toilet paper boost in demand for a product for which it was very hard to increase supply was really real, (think banana, no one was scalping banana and it is hard to make large personal reserve, all the demand in restaurant-hotel size banana transferred to residential size banana, they were hard to find).

With all the office-restaurant-hostel-industry that bout commercial toilet paper (and people using them) that stopped, it all transferred into residential toilet paper demand, like banana this is an industry with such a stable demand that the supply chain was ultra optimized, I did live near a toilet paper factory at the time and that was running pretty much 24/24, 7 days a week before the pandemic, converting from commercial to residential is costly, take time and you must be sure the higher than usual demand will stay true for a long time.

If no one had horded it, we still would have had an issue.
 
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LukeTbk said:
A single scalper as so little volume that he cannot make the price move of an article made by the millions like Nvidia gpus.

All of them together maybe (specially if they now in advance they have that power) but they would need to coordinate together and hold the line to trickle the inventoray a certain way, but they do not know each other, have no platform to organise, etc... and it is in everyone single interest to sell it as fast they can near the launch when the interest for them is at their peak, chance are, launch day is the highest amount you can have for your cards.

You do not usually have stock room (scalpers are often just filling their own appartement-van with irrelevant volumes by definitions) if you start renting commercial-industrial space for your scalping, then you have giant cost and at those level you probably need a team of resellers, accounting, i.e. you became bestbuy, you either not have any volume and not able to affect supply or you are a giant resellers operation....


What false demand, scalper cannot touch demand (or if they do they will get keep overstock on their hands)
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Think more of the distribution channel as the main problem. Only a handful of them handle all the video cards and they learned they could make a ton more selling to miners and such direct and MSI, Gigabyte, Asus and others didn't care, long as their product moved. Most of the cards never saw the open market they were sold by the pallet load elsewhere and the channel made sure enough got through to retailers to keep them happy. I feel this is less likely to happen this time but who knows, maybe a bunch of people are wanting these for AI or whatever is the hot new fad other than gaming for a video card. Distribution channel is a lot more unregulated then people think.
 
Screenshot_20241217-055140-853.png

Lol 😅 easy for you to say when you're worth 100 billion 🤔
 
Comixbooks said:
Worst case scenario Ai buys all the Graphics cards before a Human can get to them.
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Realistic scenario.

That's what I'm saying, the only legit chance of getting a 5090 / 5080 is always stopping in at your local Microcenter, around lunchtime on delivery day. Doing so you will eventually be there when new stock is available. It might take several weeks to a couple months, but that works.
 
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Zorachus said:
Realistic scenario.

That's what I'm saying, the only legit chance of getting a 5090 / 5080 is always stopping in at your local Microcenter, around lunchtime on delivery day. Doing so you will eventually be there when new stock is available. It might take several weeks to a couple months, but that works.
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Unfortunately I live 50mins away and there's no way to contact them directly.

The Cambridge MA one is by all the big tech colleges, plus I'm disabled and can't line up the night before so I'm not expecting to be able to get one there.
 
Wag said:
Unfortunately I live 50mins away and there's no way to contact them directly.

The Cambridge MA one is by all the big tech colleges, plus I'm disabled and can't line up the night before so I'm not expecting to be able to get one there.
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Yeah that's tough, I'm sorry.

Another way that works, but takes longer, is Best Buy online, get auto notified when stock arrives, but with that option, sometimes you only have like 30 seconds to immediately click the purchase button, or then it's sold-out. And you can just surf the BB website daily, and just keep checking all the time.

I think with Microcenter you can reserve a card, most of the managers are cool, if you tell them your disabled can't make it in to wait in line, but ask if they can set one aside for you when stock replenished, I would think they would for you.
 
Zorachus said:
Yeah that's tough, I'm sorry.

Another way that works, but takes longer, is Best Buy online, get auto notified when stock arrives, but with that option, sometimes you only have like 30 seconds to immediately click the purchase button, or then it's sold-out. And you can just surf the BB website daily, and just keep checking all the time.

I think with Microcenter you can reserve a card, most of the managers are cool, if you tell them your disabled can't make it in to wait in line, but ask if they can set one aside for you when stock replenished, I would think they would for you.
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They don't allow you to reserve new GPUs, and even if they did there's no way to contact anyone there.
 
Another huge issue on top of everything is that I want a waterblocked card and those don't arrive for a while.

So buying a founders edition is going to be tough, then top it off by waiting for a good waterblock then install it after installing it initially without it.

That's triple pain in the ass because reconfiguring the loop to accommodate from water to air then back to water holy shit....

How long did it take for MSI ( I had their Seahawk X blocked versiona & it was sweet)or anyone else to make waterblocked versions for the 4090? Did they ever? I grabbed a EK (,yeah I know lol) and never looked back for over 2 years lol
 
Wag said:
They don't allow you to reserve new GPUs, and even if they did there's no way to contact anyone there.
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I've seen CPU's and Video cards on hold or reserve with people's name on them.
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
I want to work as a BB manager when i retire so i can have first crack at new inventory.
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4090 - $2000 fine. 5090 - $2500 fine. Could I please upgrade my 7 year old 1080ti to something significantly better that doesn't cost more than 1.5x the price of the entire rest of the PC?

If I want raw top power for the $, Id go team red but I'd also like my ancient games to still work.
 
hardware_failure said:
4090 - $2000 fine. 5090 - $2500 fine. Could I please upgrade my 7 year old 1080ti to something significantly better that doesn't cost more than 1.5x the price of the entire rest of the PC?
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sure, they sell igpus for cheap...haha
hardware_failure said:
If I want raw top power for the $, Id go team red but I'd also like my ancient games to still work.
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🫠
 
hardware_failure said:
4090 - $2000 fine. 5090 - $2500 fine. Could I please upgrade my 7 year old 1080ti to something significantly better that doesn't cost more than 1.5x the price of the entire rest of the PC?

If I want raw top power for the $, Id go team red but I'd also like my ancient games to still work.
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nvidia is regretting 1080ti so much that the price/performance curve steepens each year so that you will never get anything better than the 1080 ti for the same money :D
 
hardware_failure said:
4090 - $2000 fine. 5090 - $2500 fine. Could I please upgrade my 7 year old 1080ti to something significantly better that doesn't cost more than 1.5x the price of the entire rest of the PC?

If I want raw top power for the $, Id go team red but I'd also like my ancient games to still work.
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5% Sales Tax on a 2,500.00 GPU is 125.00
Tax alone is enough money for a GPU.
 
Lepardi said:
nvidia is regretting 1080ti so much that the price/performance curve steepens each year so that you will never get anything better than the 1080 ti for the same money :D
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They may be regretting it but as a consumer I almost feel like "hook line and sinker" :bored:
 
Zorachus said:
So the reality is this with the RTX-5090:

MSRP will start @ $2,000 for the FE version, and $2300+ for AIB, but the card won't actually be available anywhere, it will permanently be sold out, and almost never in stock anywhere.

The market will price them out @ $3,000+ if you want to do Craigslist or Marketplace purchases in person, I would imagine $3,500+ being the typical price on Facebook Marketplace.

My point, if you want to purchase an in-stock 5090 at MSRP of $1,999, that won't happen until mid 2026, until then expect to be paying $3,500 for a 5090.

For card os not meant for the PC Gaming peeps, this will be for the 00.01%.
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This is precisely my guess how things will go.

At this point, I've asked myself: "Do I really need a 5090 (or even a 4090)?"... The answer is almost invariably no, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Plus, I've had my eye on a new leg sled for my gym that would cost me less than the difference between a 5090 and a 5080.

I'm more interested at this point with RDNA 4 and 5070/ti, TBH, as the fight in the high-mid range is where we'll see some actual juice. I really do think nV may cannabilize some of their high-end sales with this malarky of putting high-mid range (5070 ti) within spitting distance of high range (5080)
 
Comixbooks said:
5% Sales Tax on a 2,500.00 GPU is 125.00
Tax alone is enough money for a GPU.
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Dude what state do you live in? I dont even pay attention to it here in CA, but I just looked at my last 2 amazon orders and it was ~8.8%, which means if I ordered a $2500 card that would be $220 in taxes. If my 1080ti burned out, DIA whatever today, I could replace it for that.
 
Zorachus said:
So the reality is this with the RTX-5090:

MSRP will start @ $2,000 for the FE version, and $2300+ for AIB, but the card won't actually be available anywhere, it will permanently be sold out, and almost never in stock anywhere.

The market will price them out @ $3,000+ if you want to do Craigslist or Marketplace purchases in person, I would imagine $3,500+ being the typical price on Facebook Marketplace.

My point, if you want to purchase an in-stock 5090 at MSRP of $1,999, that won't happen until mid 2026, until then expect to be paying $3,500 for a 5090.

For card os not meant for the PC Gaming peeps, this will be for the 00.01%.
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I agree with you 100%, this is exactly how things will play out. The only thing I would add is that even in 2026, I don't think you'll be able to buy one easily. The stock on these will be low throughout the entire life of the card. Similar to the RTX 4090, those were never really in stock to where you could easily buy one. Nvidia kept the stock levels right at or below market demand and they never really were on store shelves. Now at the end of life you can't currently purchase one at retail.

I think they might bump up the MSRP to $2499 to appease shareholders. it won't really matter as it will still stay out of stock. I think realistically you could price this at $3999 and it would still sell out. I'm not really sure why Nvidia doesn't price these at the scalper prices, I don't really see any downsides to them doing that. It would cut out the middle man (scalper), and help further maximize profit to shareholders. I'm blown away by the market's ability to gobble up and consume GPUs at a $4,000 price tag and still keep going. I guess we've got to give Nvidia's marketing team a big kudos.

Just as a final note for those that get caught up in the GPU hype. Your current GPU isn't suddently obsolete once these come out. It can still run games just fine. This isn't like the late 1990s or early 2000s were you truly couldn't play new games on older hardware. That's no longer true and has been for quite some time, see the GTX 1080Ti as an example. For everyone else who can burn money, I implore you not to purchase from a scalper.
 
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hardware_failure said:
Dude what state do you live in? I dont even pay attention to it here in CA, but I just looked at my last 2 amazon orders and it was ~8.8%, which means if I ordered a $2500 card that would be $220 in taxes. If my 1080ti burned out, DIA whatever today, I could replace it for that.
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I wish ours was that low, here in IL its 10.25% sales tax..... :-(
 
Starfalcon said:
I wish ours was that low, here in IL its 10.25% sales tax..... :-(
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JFC??? How far of a drive is it to IA (7%)? You would save 3.25% in sales tax, and on 2k that is 65 bucks. Probably not enough saving to make it worth it, but for me I would be happy to not give IL any more of my money.
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
JFC??? How far of a drive is it to IA (7%)? You would save 3.25% in sales tax, and on 2k that is 65 bucks. Probably not enough saving to make it worth it, but for me I would be happy to not give IL any more of my money.
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Its a long drive as I am in chicago south suburbs, plus IL also has very expensive gas. What I could save on sales tax would just get eaten up by gas costs.
 
Burke888 said:
I think they might bump up the MSRP to $2499 to appease shareholders.
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I feel like they have full confidence in Nvidia leadership/ceo and do not care much about gaming gpu skus pricing right now and needed to be appeased about those.

Burke888 said:
I'm not really sure why Nvidia doesn't price these at the scalper prices, I don't really see any downsides to them doing that.
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Nvidia will probably sell like for the 4090 more than 1 million of those, scalpers all together sales what 10,000 ?

The ask price that find more than 1 millions buyers over 18 months is really different that the one that will find a very small amount around launch day. There was what about 100,000 for the first batch of 4090, there was not even 200 of them on ebay during launch day.

Scalper can reduce the asked price at no cost, Nvidia cannot charge a fortune the first weeks and then pass a giant rebate the way our society see pricing (people get angry with incredibly valuable surchage like Uber during peak demand or generator during a natural disaster, imagine this)

Think the ps5 pro, I am sure the first fews days we could find $1,000+ transaction, but no one conclude from this that Sony could have sold their target volume of PS5 pro if they announced it over $1000.
 
Lets face is Jensen lost track of Reality when he declared his company an AI company instead of a Graphics Card Company.
Then Nvidia being a one Trillion dollar company the last thing they care about is giving the consumers a fair price.
 
Comixbooks said:
Jensen lost track of Reality when he declared his company an AI company instead of a Graphics Card Company.
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I would say Jensen got a grip on reality when he made that declaration. For as long as AI investment holds, Nvidia will do its damnedest to keep its grip. It's not even a choice, really. It's his fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.
 
Comixbooks said:
Lets face is Jensen lost track of Reality when he declared his company an AI company instead of a Graphics Card Company.
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Link? I don't recall reading that and a did a quick search and didn't find anything? Maybe my google-fu skills suck?

i read all the "ai factory" stories if that's what you're saying?
 
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