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$2500 5090 I’m out

DooKey said:
The R&D is tremendous for new GPUs. Just look at the NV balance sheets to see how much they spend on new products. It goes up more and more every year.

More transistors mean more engineering and design work. That isn't static generation to generation
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Jensen is a true "field of dreams" ceo. He doesn't know what people will do with his gpus next year, he just builds them on faith that the market will find a use.
 
Ehhhh at this point it doesnt matter if its 2500 or 5k, its not like they make the majority of their money off of gaming gpus anymore. Sooner or later cloud gaming will take over and they wont even sell gpus to us anymore, Just shield consoles that have subscription packages to 7090 or 7090 Time share systems LOL
 
it seem much better to sales one gpu per gamers with giant margin, have them pay for electricity, than sales only 1 per 5-6-10 gamers via cloud gaming, as long as people pay that much for gpu I imagine they will continue to make them.

Think about movie studio with their DvD+cable tv versus OTT streaming, they need for the people to force them for years for them to let go and were forced into the less profitable streaming model (or CD vs streaming in music before that), maybe consumer will force them into cloud gaming, but thats the only way that it would happen I imagine.
 
LukeTbk said:
it seem much better to sales one gpu per gamers with giant margin, have them pay for electricity, than sales only 1 per 5-6-10 gamers via cloud gaming, as long as people pay that much for gpu I imagine they will continue to make them.
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If everyone is buying all of your highest margin products, then make those the most. I don't know how much excess capacity TSMC has?
 
There is a lot of advanced node capacity being built from covid shortage reaction (when Arizona come in play ?) and selling everything faster at those super high margin is almost a capitalist law that it will be short-lived (a competition will occur, capacity will ramp up, etc...), extraordinary could always occur, but you cannot plan as if it will happen.
 
LOL the 90 series cards only sell to a very small niche of rich nerds on rare forums like this. But by far the vast majority of sales by a HUGE margin are the 50 and 60 series cards, absolutely not a 90 card.
 

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Zorachus said:
LOL the 90 series cards only sell to a very small niche of rich nerds on rare forums like this.
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depend what you mean by niche, each 1% on a steam survey is around 1.3 millions people if we are to believe them.

1.03% of 132 millions is still 1.3/1.4 millions people and the gap between the 3.83% of 4060 vs 1.03% 4090 while massive is not some 10 for 1 ratio either.
 
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LukeTbk said:
depend what you mean by niche, each 1% on a steam survey is around 1.3 millions people if we are to believe them.

1.03% of 132 millions is still 1.3, 1.4 millions people and the gap between the 3.83% of 4060 vs 1.03% 4090 while massive is not some 10 for 1 ratio either.
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This is absolutely correct. The 4060 is sitting at 3.83% on steam while the 4090 is at 1% so it's more like for every 1 4090 owner, there are only 4 4060 owners. Very small niche my ass.
 

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LukeTbk said:
There is a lot of advanced node capacity being built from covid shortage reaction (when Arizona come in play ?) and selling everything faster at those super high margin is almost a capitalist law that it will be short-lived (a competition will occur, capacity will ramp up, etc...), extraordinary could always occur, but you cannot plan as if it will happen.
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I agree that's a natural market reaction and basic economics. Not sure you're disagreeing with me?
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
I agree that's a natural market reaction and basic economics. Not sure you're disagreeing with me?
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I thought you meant by highest margin compute (that is now more 60% instead of 40% for gpus) and by make those the most potentially stopping making gpus.
 
MistaSparkul said:
This is absolutely correct. The 4060 is sitting at 3.83% on steam while the 4090 is at 1% so it's more like for every 1 4090 owner, there are only 4 4060 owners. Very small niche my ass.
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4090s are way more popular than I would have thought.
 
LukeTbk said:
I thought you meant by highest margin compute (that is now more 60% instead of 40% for gpus) and by make those the most potentially stopping making gpus.
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I do mean that and I agree that eventually that gravy train will end.

Jensen will do what he's gonna do. I am simply suggesting the optimum strategy is to focus mainly on higher margin sales while you can. A smart strategy includes risk analysis and projections that ensures you have other markets to invest in if/when the gravy train ends.

Not entirely sure we disagree?
 
zerogg said:
4090s are way more popular than I would have thought.
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There were literal line of people camping outside store trying to get them, even if they had shipped over 100,000 of them for the launch according to rumors and they were not easy to get.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/y1trff/rtx_4090_tustin_california_micro_center_launch_9/

I think people look at a single physical location numbers and can conclude niche from there, but say a 100,000 launch, even if the United States receive a giant disproportional amount, 4.5% of the world/45% of the gpu, that physical store receive a large proportion of them versus the oem, amazon, newegg, and online service part of physical store chain, AIB that sales direct to consumer, etc..., 40%. That would be 18,000 card in physical store in the US at launch, 1,000+ best buy, 1,000 non best buy store getting them, you end up with an average of ~9 GPU per store.

After that people will look at worldwide ebay volume, see 200 cards and think that scalper have a giant proportion of them, even if it is virtually none (0.2%), because they will compare that number to the physical location they saw of ~10 cards.

And those number are just gamers that install steam on that machine, those card can end up around the world in workstation, cheaper datacenter, AI machine, etc...
 
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1.1.2.3.5... said:
I do mean that and I agree that eventually that gravy train will end.

Jensen will do what he's gonna do. I am simply suggesting the optimum strategy is to focus mainly on higher margin sales while you can. A smart strategy includes risk analysis and projections that ensures you have other markets to invest in if/when the gravy train ends.

Not entirely sure we disagree?
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Nope we probably 100% agree, they need to do just enough to keep a massively leading position in the gaming/general user market

1) As we say, 60-80% margin on hardware that sales faster you can make them in a big market, that impossible to keep up, either the market stop to be big or the margin goes down because of competitive pressure.
2) There is value at being the video cards college students have in their machine, like microsoft that always make sure kids could use windows-office for "free", having people that arrive on the workforce with an habit help company buying your stuff and once they become the generation that make decision they continue with what they used too.
3) We are talking about a multibillion, superbe high margin (gaming gpu) market by itself, with the Laptop portion booming, can be made for now on L40-RTX6000 shared design core, why would they even entertaining stopping that, they are not even forced to make them on the latest TSMC 3N to be able to sales them....
 
Maybe i can get nvidia to give me tickets to gtc25 and ill enter all the gpu giveaways. Cause no chance im buying one even if i wanted to.
 
zerogg said:
4090s are way more popular than I would have thought.
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Not only that, but the assumption that only scalpers are able to get a 4090 is also ridiculous non sense. There are over 100 million steam users, there's no way a million people paid scalpers to get a 4090. They were obviously able to just buy it themselves. I expect the same thing with the 5090, yes there will be a few hundred or thousand people who will buy from scalpers, but the vast majority of owners will be those who bought it themselves just like with the 4090.
 
Dreamerbydesign said:
Even if it did the consumer won’t see a lower price.
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you need a competitor doing it as well and using it to force the price down for sure, otherwise die shrink is just higher margin.

Like the 2 or 3 die shrink the PS5 had during its lifetime, why would they cut cost after them ? It opens the option to do so, but does not translate automatically into them, same for Nvidia Lovelace massive die shrink, made it possible to sell them much lower if they were forced too, no competition made that happen.
 
Once global warming starts to really set in & the price of electric doubles, maybe then power efficient GPU's will be back in the mainstream. Until then, let the rich have their caviar.... My 1660S is just fine for me at 1080p thank you very much.
 
djstarfox said:
maybe then power efficient GPU's will be back in the mainstream.
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Isn't today gpu way more efficient than a 1660s ?

power-vsync.png
watt-per-frame.png


Lovelace seem about twice as efficient as your 1660s.

It would be surprising if Blackwell does not feature in its lineup the most efficient gpu ever made...

If the tend in the cost and efficacy of solar and battery continue, combined with how much GPU do for people in their day to day life in term of total gpu like chips power (while obviously way more efficient) used daily, it could easily go the total opposite direction
 
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MistaSparkul said:
Sure but the reality of the 4090 is that scalpers did not make up the majority of sales lol. So if someone "expects" that only scalpers will be able to get the 5090 then I can say the same shit to that.
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for the first 3-6 months, that was reality.
 
pendragon1 said:
for the first 3-6 months, that was reality.
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I'm not so sure about that, definitely was not the reality for me, all my friends who got 4090s, and a lot of people on this very forum. But I'm not gonna try to crunch numbers on ebay with official sales data. The 5090 is just around the corner so we won't be waiting much longer to see what the actual reality of that will be.
 
LukeTbk said:
Isn't today gpu way more efficient than a 1660s ?

View attachment 698986View attachment 698987

Lovelace seem about twice as efficient as your 1660s.

It would be surprising if Blackwell does not feature in its lineup the most efficient gpu ever made...

If the tend in the cost and efficacy of solar and battery continue, combined with how much GPU do for people in their day to day life in term of total gpu like chips power (while obviously way more efficient) used daily, it could easily go the total opposite direction
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You make some good points. And clearly I need an upgrade soon. :) However, I mentioned it to illustrate that someone (e.g., me) shopping for a mid-range card won't pay top price like the OP mentioned... I'll be looking at price/frame and watts/frame as metrics for my target resolution (1080p @ 120Hz). Why over-pay for performance that I don't need?
 
pendragon1 said:
for the first 3-6 months, that was reality.
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How many were sold and how many transited via a scalper, how would we know ?

100,000+ at launch, around 310 were sold on ebay by October 20 (if we can ... facebook marketplace is maybe bigger than ebay for this now too... and some were openbox sold at msrp, for the $2000 usd or more seem to about 40-45 in the first week.

Unlike the very profitable previous crypto bubble, I am not sure if it was worth it to go to the trouble to buy a full computer with a 4090 in it, sales it and sales the rest after, we can imagine that most oem gaming build went directly to end user which could be a big floor to start with.
 
The difference in both performance and price from a xx80 to xx90 is just ridiculous. Nothing realistic in between. Greedy indeed. Crazy when comparing to CPUs, where "almost top of the line" is really not that far off from "top of the line" (in either price or performance)
 
zerogg said:
4090s are way more popular than I would have thought.
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Maybe for gaming, but consider the 4090 is also satisfying the previous Titan market. The 5090 is only going to do so even more if its moving to 32GB which I think will be plenty to woo 3090 prosumers into upgrading and maybe even 4090 owners. And as prosumers, they will be using the cards either specifically for work purposes or personal work + gaming purposes so whatever the card costs, it won't be entirely a sunk cost situation as you're using it to make money. And we have had $2500-$3000 Titans before, so price will not phase that market at all, and remains considerably cheaper than Quadro or other offerings. As for gamers who want to spring for a 5090, its simply going to be those with deep pockets who want nothing but the best, and clearly there are plenty of those.

There will be quite a large market for the 5090. Maybe even larger than the market was for the 4090 simply due to the jump to 32GB, something you really do not at all need for gaming at this point in time, unless I don't know something.
 
Zorachus said:
Exactly.

Now that nVidia is a trillion dollar A.I. corporation they don't give a F about us PC Gamers, we're the 0.00001% to them. Watch the RTX-6090 launch @ $2,999 and require a 2,000 watt PSU needing new circuit breakers in your room.
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I don't know why you people keep saying this. You can drop the 4090 down to 70% power and lose 1 frame per second. You get the idea. we all know cpu and gpu are pushed hard for the last few fps and that in the real world you can lower the power of these by a lot and get zero performance loss.
 
People that complain about stuff that is in fact a non issue in the real world maybe?
 
I work with a guy who bought a 4090 last year he said he got the card for Free. How? He said he did online surveys for months. The online survey people must know every secret about him.
 
Comixbooks said:
I work with a guy who bought a 4090 last year he said he got the card for Free. How? He said he did online surveys for months. The online survey people must know every secret about him.
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So take the average wage. $20-$50 per hr? Then compare that to how many hrs he might have spent on researching/doing/managing those surveys.
 
Epyon said:
I don't know why you people keep saying this. You can drop the 4090 down to 70% power and lose 1 frame per second. You get the idea. we all know cpu and gpu are pushed hard for the last few fps and that in the real world you can lower the power of these by a lot and get zero performance loss.
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It's just people being salty.
 
Sir Beregond said:
Maybe for gaming, but consider the 4090 is also satisfying the previous Titan market. The 5090 is only going to do so even more if its moving to 32GB which I think will be plenty to woo 3090 prosumers into upgrading and maybe even 4090 owners. And as prosumers, they will be using the cards either specifically for work purposes or personal work + gaming purposes so whatever the card costs, it won't be entirely a sunk cost situation as you're using it to make money. And we have had $2500-$3000 Titans before, so price will not phase that market at all, and remains considerably cheaper than Quadro or other offerings. As for gamers who want to spring for a 5090, its simply going to be those with deep pockets who want nothing but the best, and clearly there are plenty of those.

There will be quite a large market for the 5090. Maybe even larger than the market was for the 4090 simply due to the jump to 32GB, something you really do not at all need for gaming at this point in time, unless I don't know something.
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The 5090 is definitely going to be a popular choice for the prosumer market. My roommate does 3D modeling and his render rig currently has a pair of 3090s. Next step up in VRAM currently would be an RTX 5000 Ada (IDK why they dropped the Quadro name...) Even if the 5090 is $2499, he could still get a pair of them vs spending close to that for just one of the RTX 5000 Ada's.

I would love to upgrade my 3090 for 4K gaming, but the cost isn't worth it to me since I don't use my PC for work anymore. Maybe if we get a 24GB 5080 Super/Ti/whatever next refresh that isn't so cut down from the 5090, I'd consider upgrading.
 
Fluxmaven said:
The 5090 is definitely going to be a popular choice for the prosumer market. My roommate does 3D modeling and his render rig currently has a pair of 3090s. Next step up in VRAM currently would be an RTX 5000 Ada (IDK why they dropped the Quadro name...) Even if the 5090 is $2499, he could still get a pair of them vs spending close to that for just one of the RTX 5000 Ada's.

I would love to upgrade my 3090 for 4K gaming, but the cost isn't worth it to me since I don't use my PC for work anymore. Maybe if we get a 24GB 5080 Super/Ti/whatever next refresh that isn't so cut down from the 5090, I'd consider upgrading.
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Agree on all points. Im in similar boat with 3090s.
 
So who here on hardforum is going to be the first one to drop their pants and take the green nv 5090 schlong up their hiney?

Any takers? Want me to grease up your bumhole with some butter for the nv penis shaft?

Whose gonna be hawking them sites and call out of work.........to get a video card? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.
 
jarablue said:
So who here on hardforum is going to be the first one to drop their pants and take the green nv 5090 schlong up their hiney?

Any takers? Want me to grease up your bumhole with some butter for the nv penis shaft?

Whose gonna be hawking them sites and call out of work.........to get a video card? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.
Click to expand...
Troll, troll, troll your boat
Gently down the stream
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily
Life is just a troll in a boat
 
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