What if the crypto craze never ends?

youghmama said:
Just saw a new eVGA 3080 Ti sell for $1,925 on ebay.

Link for now: https://www.ebay.com/itm/184899707661?_trksid=p2471758.m4703&autorefresh=true
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It's a $1400 card, Ebay takes 13%, which leaves a profit margin of $275. This doesn't include taxes/shipping from the EVGA store and/or Ebay. The break-even price for these cards (no profit) is somewhere around $1700. The FE, which is non-LHR, selling for $2000.

3080 Ti prices are tanking faster than any other card, because it's a terrible value. I guess that's a good thing for people who actually want to buy a 3080 Ti.
 
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Krenum said:
In a perfect world gamers wouldn't buy them. I agree.
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Unfortunately, they usually have the fastest hardware and do have the better drivers. That's why since they bought 3dfx I've exclusively had nVIDIA with two exceptions, the 9800 Pro I bought and the HD 4890 1GB I got from RMAing a GTX 260 Black Edition. It's just the last 3 cards I've bought since the mining craze have started have been used, so they haven't seen a cent from me. With them jacking up prices to absurd levels, they won't and I'll continue to buy used.
 
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TaintedSquirrel said:
It's a $1400 card, Ebay takes 13%, which leaves a profit margin of $275. This doesn't include taxes/shipping from the EVGA store and/or Ebay. The break-even price for these cards (no profit) is somewhere around $1700. The FE, which is non-LHR, selling for $2000.

3080 Ti prices are tanking faster than any other card, because it's a terrible value. I guess that's a good thing for people who actually want to buy a 3080 Ti.
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The 3080 ti FE is LHR as well, there are no full hash rate 3080 ti or 3070 ti.
 
funkydmunky said:
You are being a goof. We are talking BILLIONS of people here and the massive server infrastucture to support them. How about YT vs. Mining alone? Stop being so simple and think of reality.
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Link to your data please

if the only way you can make your case is to compare power consumption of various different types of computing combined with mining alone, you’ve already lost the argument. My GPU/cpu usage is virtually idle during YT.
 
Here's some rough numbers I was able to dig up:

Youtube (viewing & hosting) - Estimated at around 241 Terawatt hours
https://thefactsource.com/how-much-electricity-does-youtube-use/

Datacenters - Estimated at 190 Terawatt hours - 300 Terawatt hours
https://www.statista.com/statistics...ity-consumption-in-data-centers-and-telecoms/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003019

Bitcoin - Estimated max at around 141 Terawatt hours at its peak (there's a ton of other mining going on as well)
https://cbeci.org/

The numbers I'm seeing are all very much all over the place. Personally I don't really care.
 
Power use is not going to go down even if we limit human population significantly in coming decades (only real solution to the environmental crisis), solution is to use our nearest star (aka the Sun) as much as we can, humanity's energy needs are not even a drop in the ocean in comparison to what can be harnessed from that source.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Power use is not going to go down even if we limit human population significantly in coming decades (only real solution to the environmental crisis), solution is to use our nearest star (aka the Sun) as much as we can, humanity's energy needs are not even a drop in the ocean in comparison to what can be harnessed from that source.
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You do know, coal, oil, natural gas, trees is all solar energy :D
 
viscountalpha said:
https://www.pcgamer.com/cryptocurrency-miners-in-china-are-beginning-to-sell-off-gpus-for-cheap/

it sounds like the craze is coming to an end quickly. China stopped bitcoin and I hear rumors this? sounds like the market is about to get flooded with worn out cards.
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To me, the real issue is whether or not bots buy up all available stock from retailers, online and offline, and consequently resale value of new cards drops on EBay. Also, I hope that the LHR cards will dampen demand from miners.

I hope that the crypto miners' used cards sell for pennies on the dollar on EBay due to high volumes of cards listed for sale and declining demand for used cards. Of course, I know as well as anyone that "hope is not a strategy."
 
The China crackdown wont, at least immediately, cause a big crash as it actually becomes easier for everybody else to mine.

Once the China stock of cards get redistributed around the world things will get interesting. I am sure people will start sucking them up to mine more but it will be similar to an agonal breath.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Yes but I was talking about ones that don't cause global warming...😒
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You do know during the Jurassic period CO2 was 3x-5x higher then it is today, right? Earth did not melt, nor did the oceans dry up, nor was there that many deserts (more like zero deserts), temperature was way more even from North to South pole then it is today and Antarctic Continent was not a barren frozen wasteland but populated with plants, animals (Dinosaurs) while not exactly in the same place as now it was close.
 
noko said:
You do know during the Jurassic period CO2 was 3x-5x higher then it is today, right? Earth did not melt, nor did the oceans dry up, nor was there that many deserts (more like zero deserts), temperature was way more even from North to South pole then it is today and Antarctic Continent was not a barren frozen wasteland but populated with plants, animals (Dinosaurs) while not exactly in the same place as now it was close.
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Yea good luck living in those conditions...the amount of alternative science in circulation is astounding. Those conditions you mention would have been largely inhospitable for most current species on earth unless you are arguing for natural selection to pick something other than apes next time as the apex species....in which case we may be on the same track.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Yea good luck living in those conditions...the amount of alternative science in circulation is astounding. Those conditions you mention would have been largely inhospitable for most current species on earth unless you are arguing for natural selection to pick something other than apes next time as the apex species....in which case we may be on the same track.
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As like today, that would depend where you lived, Siberia would probably still be cool but not frozen, Antarctica would also be cool but not frozen. Those areas would probably not have much issue supporting today species. The temperature difference would be much less then it is today from equator to poles. Alternative science? How about real science. You can say exactly what you said, good luck living in those conditions in Siberia and South Pole for most species on Earth today.
 
Krenum said:
Sure you can, its called the U.S. Federal Reserve. One of these days they'll figure out how to print their way out of debt. :LOL:
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Except that is absolutely not in "everyone's homes". It's the federal government that benefits one thing, and one thing only - the ruling class.
 
matt167 said:
Everything with the topic... Boats, motorcycles and RV's are on fire right now. I guarantee that enthusiast PC's are not on fire right now... Markets will shift/ have shifted. It might not even be because of coin mining, but markets have shifted. This will happen if gaming stays expensive
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Uh, sure. RVs, sure. They have intrinsic value. Boats are an absolute money pit. Every single person I know that owns one regrets is 80% of the time and spends far more time and money keeping it working than using it. Nothing that loses 20% of it's value the minute to buy it is an "investment".
 
flegg said:
Right but one would think if crypto persists they would eventually attempt to reach demand. I shouldve said until 2023 though
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Indeed. That is the very definition of the law of supply. As price goes up, supply will go up. As long as GPU cards are going for 4-5 times original MSRP, AMD and Nvidia are going to do everything in their power to make as many as they can, as fast as they can.
 
JSHamlet234 said:
I don't do mining, and I have a bunch of builds for myself and others that are on hold because of the GPU situation, but I don't want to see crypto tank. It would hurt people I don't want to see get hurt, and the banksters would enjoy it too much.
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LOL. This assumes that "banksters" are not benefitting as much from crypto as anyone else and I'm going to let you in on a tip - yes, the absolutely are. In the end, the point of crypto will be to decentralize and screw central governments and "banksters", but right now crypto is nothing but another form of commodity and the "banksters" are in on it as much, if not moreso, than anyone else.
 
WilyKit said:
Link to your data please

if the only way you can make your case is to compare power consumption of various different types of computing combined with mining alone, you’ve already lost the argument. My GPU/cpu usage is virtually idle during YT.
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Indeed. You're point is absolutely correct. When considering the electricity usage of a single GPU card being used once in a while for gaming, versus a card running at full capacity 24/7 for mining, there is no comparison - crypto mining is using more electricity. Even IF you were a hardcore gamer that spent all day playing games, you still have to sleep. Crypto mining GPU card does not. Also, the gaming "infrastructure" being dragged into this runs regardless of whether any individual person is using their PC to play games.
 
Andrew_Carr said:
Here's some rough numbers I was able to dig up:

Youtube (viewing & hosting) - Estimated at around 241 Terawatt hours
https://thefactsource.com/how-much-electricity-does-youtube-use/

Datacenters - Estimated at 190 Terawatt hours - 300 Terawatt hours
https://www.statista.com/statistics...ity-consumption-in-data-centers-and-telecoms/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003019

Bitcoin - Estimated max at around 141 Terawatt hours at its peak (there's a ton of other mining going on as well)
https://cbeci.org/

The numbers I'm seeing are all very much all over the place. Personally I don't really care.
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Again, this is not the point of the question. It isn't "which activity is most electricity usage heavy?". The question is, how much electricity is being used PER CARD for playing video games or crypto mining ?
 
noko said:
You do know during the Jurassic period CO2 was 3x-5x higher then it is today, right? Earth did not melt, nor did the oceans dry up, nor was there that many deserts (more like zero deserts), temperature was way more even from North to South pole then it is today and Antarctic Continent was not a barren frozen wasteland but populated with plants, animals (Dinosaurs) while not exactly in the same place as now it was close.
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Meanwhile, the wavelengths of energy absorbed by CO2 greenhouse warming is already completely gone. Raising atmospheric CO2 levels beyond ~250 ppm contributes ZIPPO to greenhouse gas warming. Nevermind that water vapor is a more effective and VASTLY more prevalent greenhouse gas than trace amounts of CO2. The single greatest pseudo science ever conceived.
 
deadrody said:
LOL. This assumes that "banksters" are not benefitting as much from crypto as anyone else and I'm going to let you in on a tip - yes, the absolutely are. In the end, the point of crypto will be to decentralize and screw central governments and "banksters", but right now crypto is nothing but another form of commodity and the "banksters" are in on it as much, if not moreso, than anyone else.
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I always thought it was the opposite: that crypto would initially be pushed and pursued by those who would like to wrestle control away from the ruling class, but that eventually it would become a way for those same powers to increase their control, increase their surveillance, and increase their ability to implement things like social credit systems. I guess time will tell on that.
 
JSHamlet234 said:
I always thought it was the opposite: that crypto would initially be pushed and pursued by those who would like to wrestle control away from the ruling class, but that eventually it would become a way for those same powers to increase their control, increase their surveillance, and increase their ability to implement things like social credit systems. I guess time will tell on that.
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Yeah, I'm sure they will attempt to either ban crypto, or try and take control of it, but with so many different iterations of crypto, it will likely be impossible to do so.
 
deadrody said:
Yeah, I'm sure they will attempt to either ban crypto, or try and take control of it, but with so many different iterations of crypto, it will likely be impossible to do so.
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I'm going to guess that crypto is too decentralized for any democratic government to successfully control or ban it. I say that despite not being a crypto supporter.
 
blackmomba said:
Son, if the crypto craze never ends, you need to stick your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.
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Are you saying that as long as the crypto craze continues, there will be GPU shortages and super-high prices?

I'm assuming (optimistically ?) that if China, and some other authoritarian states limit or ban crypto, then all that no longer useful hardware will flood the market, and the remaining miners can get all the GPUs they want at bargain prices. Of course, Russia will never ban or limit crypto, since they are probably the country with the most "earned" from crypto activities.

Or did I totally mis-understand you?
 
The crypto craze will only end when crypto is outlawed or so tightly regulated in enough countries that matter, that only criminals and wealthy people can really use it. So, until then, GPU's will be used to mine. Sure, GPU use will taper off soon for Eth, same as it did for bitcoin, but a new crypto commodity will come out sooner or later that is cost effective to mine with GPU's, and the cycle will continue. (I am not advocating regulating or outlawing crypto. Just putting to words what I believe to be the prerequisites to it's demise, or irrelevancy.)

As an aside, why are we getting off track talking about power usage? If the crypto high priests and whiteknights want to pretend 24/7 crypto is somehow greener and uses less power than a few hours a day of gaming, or regular YT/Netflix/Etc usage, or claim gamers are somehow underutilizing their cards, let them. Those assertions are as irrelevant as they are laughable. Give it the consideration it deserves, none.
 
deadrody said:
Uh, sure. RVs, sure. They have intrinsic value. Boats are an absolute money pit. Every single person I know that owns one regrets is 80% of the time and spends far more time and money keeping it working than using it. Nothing that loses 20% of it's value the minute to buy it is an "investment".
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who said investment, I sure did not.. Rv's loose as much as a boat over time. Actually once the crypto craze ends, any card you spend thousands on now will be worth hundreds then.
 
Not sure how relevant or sensationalist it is:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/thousands-of-used-gpus-are-flooding-chinas-second-hand-market
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/110638/chinese-crypto-miners-dump-gpu
For instance, one owner tried selling a batch of RTX 3060 GPUs from various brands with an initial price range between 2,200 and 2,899 yuan ($336 to $450) for each. But the owner has further lowered it down to 1,760 yuan ($270) after over 60 potential buyers posted bids at much cheaper quotes.

But apparently there is bulk of card rtx 3070 sold under the initial MSRP of $500 in China.
 
LukeTbk said:
Not sure how relevant or sensationalist it is:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/thousands-of-used-gpus-are-flooding-chinas-second-hand-market
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/110638/chinese-crypto-miners-dump-gpu
For instance, one owner tried selling a batch of RTX 3060 GPUs from various brands with an initial price range between 2,200 and 2,899 yuan ($336 to $450) for each. But the owner has further lowered it down to 1,760 yuan ($270) after over 60 potential buyers posted bids at much cheaper quotes.

But apparently there is bulk of card rtx 3070 sold under the initial MSRP of $500 in China.
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Well, mining is now illegal in china so there's probably a lot on the market.
 
Nobu said:
Well, mining is now illegal in china so there's probably a lot on the market.
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I've been talking to suppliers in China about this thinking it could be a golden opportunity to buy cards in bulk at reasonable prices. Went absolutely nowhere, prices are the same as they are here except you have to ship things across the world and you're buying from people you can't trust through websites that aren't even as good as ebay.
 
Andrew_Carr said:
I've been talking to suppliers in China about this thinking it could be a golden opportunity to buy cards in bulk at reasonable prices. Went absolutely nowhere, prices are the same as they are here except you have to ship things across the world and you're buying from people you can't trust through websites that aren't even as good as ebay.
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They probably are aware that the market is still strong for crypto cards outside of china, so anyone who knows they're dealing with someone outside china will probably charge a premium.
 
Andrew_Carr said:
I've been talking to suppliers in China about this thinking it could be a golden opportunity to buy cards in bulk at reasonable prices. Went absolutely nowhere, prices are the same as they are here except you have to ship things across the world and you're buying from people you can't trust through websites that aren't even as good as ebay.
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Out of curiosity, do you own/adminster a mining farm?
 
techie81 said:
Crypto isn't going anywhere but its reliance on GPUs will likely change.
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Agreed. But there are always new cryptocurrencies, and in the beginning to medium term CPU/GPU mining will work on them, it's only once you exhaust the low hanging fruit you need to resort to more extreme measures. Bitcoin - for instance - has been there for years.

I don't think what the GPU market needs is for Crypto to crash (I mean, that would help, but it would be unlikely I think, can't stick that genie back in the bottle) but rather for it to become more stable.

Right now Crypto is driving demand, but we also have a supply issue, on two fronts.

1.) GPU manufacturers remember how they got stuck with a ton of 10 series GPU inventory the last time they increased production to meed crypto demands, and then crypto demands suddenly dropped. They are reluctant to over-compensate. They lose much more by over-producing and having excess inventory than they do by making conservative estimates and going into backorder. It's the same reason you can't buy window AC units during a heat wave, or snow blowers during a snowstorm.

2.) Fab capacity. Demand is increasing from all corners of the market. Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Mobile, Desktop, Mining, you name it. At the same time there are really only two latest gen node manufacturers left. TSMC and Samsung, and Samsung seems to be struggling a little by comparison. GlobalFoundries just decided modern process nodes were too had and dropped out. Intel was starting to open up their fabs to third party manufacturing and then they just totally failed at their 10nm process. Intel will likely come back eventually, and TSMC is building more capacity, but these things will take time.

Eventually we should get to a point where supply and demand are more balanced, which should help with the GPU situation, but I'm thinking probably no sooner than 2023.

philb2 said:
Well, for us as GPU buyers, that would be important. What would replace GPUs for crypto mining?
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Usually FPGA's (programmable logic chips) and ASIC's (custom single purpose silcion specifically designed and optimized for the task of mining just one or a couple of cryptocurrenices)

FPGA's are more flexible but ASIC's are faster. Both are faster than GPU's for th epurposes of special purpose computation, generally.
 
Nobu said:
Well, mining is now illegal in china so there's probably a lot on the market.
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I don't think it is going to have that effect. The Chinese mining ban will only impact the market short term. The demand is still there, the mining will just occur elsewhere. The owners of the cards in china know this, and they are not about to sell cheaply.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
Eventually we should get to a point where supply and demand are more balanced, which should help with the GPU situation, but I'm thinking probably no sooner than 2023.
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Yeah, some of the issues may resolve by then, but Fab capacity I expect will be a problem for years to come. Having only two in the space is a problem since Intel started struggling, and GloFo just gave up, that's definitely problematic. Any expansion of capacity in terms of new fabs, or new players, or Intel fixing their stuff, etc. doesn't happen over night and will be a multi year affair.
 
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