This happens every single launch. It means nothing.
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Anyone think this guy is right?
- Thread starter Kid744
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This happens every single launch. It means nothing.
I have listened to every episode of Broken Silicon (The MLID podcast), and I kick him $2/month on Patreon. I don't agree with every opinion of his, nor do I hold home on some kind of "YouTuber Pedestal". He's not better than me, or smarter than me, but he produces content that I find insightful, and that I do not have time to produce myself. If I never got married and never had kids, I would probably do something like what he does.
His content does have a slight AMD bias, but in no way is he some paid AMD schill or anything like that. He is a small-time guy who has his preferences, like anybody else. He seems to make as many AMD jokes as NVIDIA ones. (AMD... Always Massive Delays)
With that out of the way, I think he is pretty much on the money here. NVIDIA always pulls this bullshit. The mere existence of the Founder's Edition cards proves they don't need to rely on AIB partners to sell consumer GPUs. By pricing their first-party cards artificially low, and "choosing" to order fewer cards at launch, they can come off as being the "hero" for not raising prices while driving sales to AIB partners who purchase the silicon at a high markup, and are forced to mark up their cards above MSRP.
NVIDIA makes great products, but they are a publicly-traded corporation with an absurdly high stock price right now. Keeping shareholders happy means using whatever tactics necessary to pump up margins and mindshare as much as possible.
His content does have a slight AMD bias, but in no way is he some paid AMD schill or anything like that. He is a small-time guy who has his preferences, like anybody else. He seems to make as many AMD jokes as NVIDIA ones. (AMD... Always Massive Delays)
With that out of the way, I think he is pretty much on the money here. NVIDIA always pulls this bullshit. The mere existence of the Founder's Edition cards proves they don't need to rely on AIB partners to sell consumer GPUs. By pricing their first-party cards artificially low, and "choosing" to order fewer cards at launch, they can come off as being the "hero" for not raising prices while driving sales to AIB partners who purchase the silicon at a high markup, and are forced to mark up their cards above MSRP.
NVIDIA makes great products, but they are a publicly-traded corporation with an absurdly high stock price right now. Keeping shareholders happy means using whatever tactics necessary to pump up margins and mindshare as much as possible.
Even better if that’s not what he said that means all
You need to do is wait for FE cards to be in stock.
Not sure why you’re crushing so hard on this guy but I don’t really care either.
Yes, I agree. That’s why I’m saying this really only means anything is if nVidia doesn’t restock their FE cards. Otherwise you just wait until they’re back in stock and snag one @ MSRP. If you’re impatient and opt for an AIB you’ll likely pay more but again, that’s a pretty standard affair for those seeking instant gratification.
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Because when I see people talking trash on our forums that is based on opinion alone, I tend to push back and try to show some of the truth.
Sodapopjones
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How can you call the guys piece truth when its a rumor lol? Basically the whole conversation at this point is everyone's opinion on a launch that hasn't happened yet.
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20 years of sources in the video card channel that are my friends and I still talk to them.
Sodapopjones
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I'm not defending nVidia here, but unless I see some leaked company document, its still just hearsay.
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You can call analysis hearsay if you wish.
There's no "truth" here, it's all conjecture based on he said/she said. Maybe you need to go back and watch the video or read the article again.
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Roger that, heard you the first time you posted it.
Tell me about BOM costs to AIBs? Tell me about margins currently for NVIDA? Tell me about this will impact retail prices for AIBs? Tell me about the TAM and current quarter and how this will be filled? Tell me about him quoting sources and information he is getting from AIBs. The guy pointed to a lot of data points. You can call BS on it assuredly, but anyone here would be better off listening to him than just call BS on him for some reason. Vote with your wallet as always.
I never actually called BS. What I said was, if true, this really only matters for those who want an AIB cards, or who don't wait for an FE card and decide to go AIB and that unless nVidia does not re-stock their own store, you can simply wait until you're able to snag an FE directly from them @ MSRP
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And what I am saying is that the way your frame your argument is incorrect. Let me frame it as I see it from MLID is saying....
NVIDIA sells its BOM kits currently below 40% margin so that some AIB cards hit first reviews at MSRP. NVIDIA has FE cards for sale on its own site.
This gets launch reviews which will likely be glowing from a value perspective. All these glorious reviews which will be repeatedly linked, quoted, and read for years by consumers.
All that initial stock sells out.
NVIDIA now sells AIBs BOM kits at prices that will satisfy its >50% margin on kits that will reach the channel in mid to late October. AIBs have to raise prices to distributors which in turn raise etail and shelf prices.
NVIDIA puts up only minimal cards per hour on its own store. Card was still in stock multiple times a day. NVIDIA points to this as MSRP availability.
Shelf prices of actual cards are well above MSRP.
While MLID did not use this term, it is almost like a "bait and switch" tactic.
This is what MLID was pointing to, and all the data points squarely at this. Now I know it is all hearsay to you, because you do not have direct sources, but my sources that I asked said pretty much the same thing MLID is saying. And that quote I posted above is fairly damning as well.
NVIDIA is masterful when playing the market and these actions are going to assure, what I would guess would be a lot less than 20% of 2080/2070 AMPERE ASIC allocation, to ever be sold at MSRP worldwide.
Bottom line, MSRP cards will never have large enough supply to satiate the market and this will be by design.
legcramp
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It's not much different than Samsung/Hynix/Micron having "outages" at their factories is it?
I understand every word of everything you just said and have understood it for nearly the entity of this thread. None of this counters anything I said above.
Lets assume everything is verified and 100% accurate... Can you or can you not get a 3080/3090 @ MSRP from nVidia if you wait for stock to be available?
MavericK
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I guess that all depends on what AMD comes out with, and at what price...
There might suddenly be a bunch of cards at MSRP.
MavericK
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I think what he is saying is that stock will be low / controlled enough that no, you probably won't be able to get a card at MSRP from nVidia - at least, without waiting quite a long time.
Quoting the most relevant bits.
How could you ever possibly prove this? If I go to Nvidia's site in March 2021 and the cards are in stock all day long am I allowed to say he's full of crap then? Will anybody care?
KazeoHin
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Yes. No.
But Credibility is not one explosion, its multiple little bits of trust. Credibility is earned with consistent and frequent accuracy, but does not require 100% accuracy.
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I think this MSRP situation will happen. Not really anything else to be said by me about this. Vote with your wallet!
oldmanbal
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I think a lot of enthusiasts are going to be pretty sad if they can't score a FE on Thursday, I know I'd be one
Furious_Styles
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Just to be clear here, you're saying that the best deal one might get is to buy the first available FE card they can right?
He hasn’t sad much of anything except repeating himself time and again each time anyone doesn’t fully agree with MLID, thinking anyone who doesn’t fully agree must not understand what’s being said.
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If that is all you took away from a very well laid out explanation, I guess that really says something about your reading comprehension.
DooKey
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When all was said and done were there any 2080 Ti's widely available at MSRP of $999? IIRC, nope. Seems like a replay of what we've seen before. With that said there were AIB models for less than FE model cost and if what MLID says is correct we probably won't see that. As a matter of fact from what I've seen on pricing so far the AIB cards all cost more than the FE cards in this generation of cards. So appears the AIBs are already trying to make up for the cost difference of their VRAM/GPU bundle cost. Is what it is. Buy if you want or don't.
Master_shake_
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This is the part that's standing out here to me.
What would be the rationale for Nvidia raising the BOM kit price after release? How do they sell that? How do they prevent that fact from hitting the press? Are they resorting to Apple-level leak suppression, or Hillary Clinton level?
DooKey
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They don't have to explain it to anyone. BOM prices increase all the time and/or margins are adjusted at a whim. If an AIB complains and goes to the press they see themselves on the outside looking in, ala XFX.
As long as they are making money for their shareholders that keeps them happy then no problems.
So the AIBs essentially have no real bargaining position with respect to these GPUs?
Yes it is, because your well laid out post didn’t say anything more than what you’d been trying to say. A concept I grasped even before you said it. Not sure how you can claim a reading comprehension issue on my end when I get what you’re saying and you keep repeating What you’re saying.
I did notice however you aren’t answering the question I asked. Wonder why? Maybe it’ll go against the narrative you’re trying to spew?
Or perhaps you’re projecting and it’s you with the reading comprehension issue? I’ll repeat the question...
If one is willing to wait until nvidia.com has FE cards in stock, can they or can they not get one for MSRP?
DooKey
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Other than quantity discounts? Not really. They know Nvidia GPUs still sell like hotcakes and they don't want to miss out on the cash. They just raise their prices as well.
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Yes. You have relegated all the analysis moot...in your world.
And anyone else's who's willing to wait for one if they don't get one on launch day. Not everyone needs a detailed analysis to know that instant gratification often times costs you more.
There's more to it than that. I am not sure if you read all of the linked articles/videos, but they are also suggesting that
1) The FE models are receiving the best binned GPUs, and
2) The FE cooler is extremely good, most likely better than the AIB coolers that will be attached to the affordable models
So effectively the initial reviews - which are mostly based on FE models - will present a price/performance value proposition that doesn't really exist. Modern NVIDIA GPUs boost clock speed based on the quality of the silicon as well as the effectiveness of the cooler so there is a very real chance that people who purchase base model Ampere cards from an AIB based on initial reviews will pay more money for a worse-performing product.
That is, more or less, a scam.
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Brackle
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I am not sure he will even comprehend this. But you are spot on.
I get all that, but it doesn't change the point I'm making that if you want a card @ MSRP, waiting for nVidia to stock them is an option.
Beyond that, for the described scam to happen, a lot of things need to also happen.
-There has to be a perpetual shortage of FE cards at nVidia
-The AIB cooling solutions will have to be worse than the FE cooling solution
-The AIB GPU's will have to be worse than the FE GPU's
-The BOM will have to spike after the initial launch
I personally don't think day 0 glowing reviews are going to carry nVidia into everyones good gracious through an entire product cycle if everything that comes immediately after is shit by comparison.
Hasn't this been the case in the past?
I think that's inevitable if the cooler is actually as good as described so far, but reviews will tell. AIBs aren't putting $150 coolers on the entry-level models.
Didn't they bin them for FE models on Turing as well?
None of this seems that far fetched, honestly.
The only way they pull it off without either a deluge of bad press or just plain lower revenue due to not stocking for demand is if they ensure that all supply tracks extremely closely to demand.
On the other hand, let's say supply is actually tight, to the point of being outstripped by demand for the foreseeable future like it was for AMD during one of the mining crazes. If they keep BOM low, retailers can increase pricing, and if they don't, AIBs can.
No, maybe initially, but they haven't been that hard to find after the initial rush. This would need to be perpetual.
Again, maybe initially. I have no doubt AIB's will introduce better cooling solutions IF what they currently have ends up being inadequate
Did they? Hard to say since the FE cards didn't have the power delivery needed to really push it.
It's not that any one aspect is far fetched, it's that every one of them needs to happen and the Day 0 reviews would need to be SO GOOD that everyone just ignores that they can't replicate the same performance, temps and paid $500 more than they thought they would.
This isn't going to cause them bad press because there is nothing to prove. Cards regularly are hard to find and sold over MSRP at launch. This isn't news. Unless they release FE vs AIB sales numbers or documents that show the difference in profit margins the whole thing is speculation and mainly just click bait.