When will Video Card prices come down lower?

KazeoHin said:
I wish I shared your optimism.
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It's not optimism, it's expectation. I expect Intel to do this because it's how they do business.

serpretetsky said:
If they sell out at MSRP, above MSRP, or below MSRP its all the same marketshare.
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What market share? Intel doesn't have any discrete video card market share. They need this if they expect to move forward in the discrete GPU market, and if they don't succeed with this launch, Intel will sell off the whole department to someone else and go back to integrated graphics only.

This is the end of the line; they're already trying to salvage their failed attempt to create a datacenter division. If this doesn't work I don't see a second generation afterward.
 
Axman said:
What market share? Intel doesn't have any discrete video card market share.
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The market share in that sentence is the theorical market share Intel end up with if they release video card and cut the market price.

The point being if they sell out (if being important in that sentence) they end up with the same market share regardless on the price point, which is true, you can disagree that without a significant rebate that they would find buyer without a significant price cut.
 
Axman said:
What market share? Intel doesn't have any discrete video card market share. They need this if they expect to move forward in the discrete GPU market, and if they don't succeed with this launch, Intel will sell off the whole department to someone else and go back to integrated graphics only.

This is the end of the line; they're already trying to salvage their failed attempt to create a datacenter division. If this doesn't work I don't see a second generation afterward.
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You originally replied to this:
Unfortunately, Intel being in the game changes VERY little. If Intel sells GPUs at low prices, scalpers will buy them up and sell for more market-matching prices.
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With this:
This is way less likely with Intel. Nvidia is a velvet glove when it comes to mining and scalping. Intel is an iron fist, and they're got lots of experience setting prices and controlling markets. They are masters of all the dirty tricks, we've seen them fix markets before, and we've seen them take fines from governments like it's nothing to them -- because they're nothing to them.
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Your argument (as I understand it anyway) is that Intel would go out of their way to make sure prices are low to the end user so that they can increase their market share.

My question is: If they sell out of their stock ( selling at low prices directly to end-users or to scalpers wont really change this), why would this change how much market share they get? They're going to sell the same number of GPUs in either scenario right?
 
JSHamlet234 said:
I'm hoping for a dip in prices after Christmas. If the 3070 (or 6700XT) drops to $800, I'll grab one before the price goes back up. Otherwise, I'll wait for Intel. I'd rather give them my money anyway.
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I jumped on a RGB 3070 @ $879 in late Oct because it was in stock for a few mins .. my other video card made it a free upgraded (RX5700) so I did not mind paying that price as the AMD card only cost $359 new in 2019 and I got my money when I sold it , guy was building a rig for his son and going back to gaming with it and facebook local worked out ..

Also , I was talking with a friend and asked why is the Cartel killing it's buyers ? Nvidia could learn from this same question.
 
LukeTbk said:
The point being if they sell out (if being important in that sentence) they end up with the same market share regardless on the price point
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I don't mean market share in terms of units sold. By that standard, I agree they could sell all their product and the price doesn't really matter at all. But that's not the only aspect of market share. A part of market share is mind share.

Nvidia is clearly king at this in GPUs. They have a total lock on consumer mind share, and have for years. Most gamers assume AMD is a second-class product.

Which brings us to...

serpretetsky said:
If they sell out of their stock ( selling at low prices directly to end-users or to scalpers wont really change this), why would this change how much market share they get? They're going to sell the same number of GPUs in either scenario right?
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If Intel wants to make their product not seem like a third-tier GPU, they need to come in like a big damn hero. Sure, not the best product, but a solid all-around performer, priced right -- even if you have to buy a whole new Dell to get one -- if they have something good enough and get it into consumer hands, they win.

We'll be a year and a half into shortages by the time Intel is expected to launch. It's more important for Intel to cut everyone some slack and deliver gamers some pretty good stuff at decent prices. They know if they do that they'll easily be the brand mainstream PC gamers go to in the future when they just want a computer and not a hassle.

...

Intel has a history of using borderline illegal to blatantly illegal practices to control the market. Intel has a history of selling parts at a near-loss or at a loss in order to control the market.

I don't see this changing because Intel sees a chance to sell hardware to miners.
 
serpretetsky said:
This is not a sandwich shop, this is a multi billion dollar GPU company. If I can't get my shipment of 10k GPU's from them this year doesn't mean I'm not going to try again next year and next year (assuming the performance/cost is good for the market).
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What's a year anyway? You can live without the revenue for a bit. Or are all smaller distributors just supposed to close shop? Do you consider that a "win"?
 
cjcox said:
What's a year anyway? You can live without the revenue for a bit. Or are all smaller distributors just supposed to close shop? Do you consider that a "win"?
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I wasn't judging if this is good or bad, so I'm not sure what you mean by me considering it a win? You mean from nvidia's point of view? I suppose as long as nvidia has large customers still alive next year they probably wont mind too much. The Amazonss, microsofts, facebooks, HPs, Dells, and googles of the world. Research institutions, Defense contracts, etc etc.
Axman said:
I don't mean market share in terms of units sold. By that standard, I agree they could sell all their product and the price doesn't really matter at all. But that's not the only aspect of market share. A part of market share is mind share.
...

If Intel wants to make their product not seem like a third-tier GPU, they need to come in like a big damn hero. Sure, not the best product, but a solid all-around performer, priced right -- even if you have to buy a whole new Dell to get one -- if they have something good enough and get it into consumer hands, they win.
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Yeah I'm not sure I agree that it would help them much, but I dont have much to backup that opinion. So I suppose it might be better for them to try to keep prices low. I mean, if supply is low that will mean a lot people wont be able to get their hands on them anyways, but... shrug... dont know.
 
I think stock is actually peaking now because of xmas. I have no inside info but there would be no reason for manufacturers to hold stock for later when they can sell it all immediately.

Yet another covid wave (labor/supply chain limitations) plus strong demand by miners is going to keep prices high until next gen cards hit. And next gen cards will give manufacturers and AIBs another chance to raise prices (just like we saw this year with TI cards). Unless inflation takes a hit from a market correction or demand disappears prices gonna keep going up up up.
 
Intel has good relations with OEMs like Dell, so I expect them to price and market the cards aggressively versus nvidia and AMD in pre-builts.

As far as buying a standalone GPU is concerned, I don't see big chances in prices or availability. Intel already signalled they won't limit mining on their cards, and they see miners as just another consumer. They are most likely taking hash rate into consideration when designing the cards, not just gaming performance.
 
serpretetsky said:
If they sell out at MSRP, above MSRP, or below MSRP its all the same marketshare.
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and another thing to add to that: there's nothing Intel can do to stop scalpers and dodgy resellers from inflating the price. Yes, Intel can sell these at a loss, and they'll sell out in 10 milliseconds. How many of them go to honest gamers, versus how many go to people who will hold them ransom on Ebay? Or Intel can sell them for a great profit, and they'll still sell out in 10 milliseconds.

Intel has a choice:
Sell out their stock at a loss and piss off gamers who couldn't get their cards,
Or...
Sell out their stock at a great profit and piss off gamers who couldn't get their cards.

Corporate greed will dictate their choice.

Intel is manufacturing these cards on TSMC because their own fabs are at absolute maximum capacity. TSMC is also at maximum capacity. Intel could have bought out every wafer TSMC has planned for four years and these cards will STILL sell out in 10 milliseconds.
 
KazeoHin said:
I'm sorry to be the barer of bad news, but this is the new normal. GPU prices aren't going to be going down any time soon, likely ever. Nvidia is absolutely rolling in cash, they are selling every GPU they make and at 3x the profit they were making two years ago.

I also believe the stories I hear about them ramping DOWN production in order to keep supply low in proportion to demand. This would indicate that Nvidia wants to keep the prices at this level. Its a matter of maximizing the profit curve: see below.

You have the option of selling 100 things at $10 each, or you can sell 40 things at $30. What should you do? well, each thing takes $5 to manufacture and ship:
so selling 100 @ $10 is (100x10=$1,000) - (100x5=$500) = $500.
Selling 40 @ $30 is (40x30=$1,200) - (40x5=$200) = $1000

So selling 100 things at $10 each nets $500
and selling 40 things at $30 each nets $1000

So in THIS situation, you can DOUBLE your profit by restricting supply and selling for a higher price.

Now please understand this: Nvidia is selling more cards per day right now than they ever have before. If you had the option to sell that same 100 things only at that $30 price point? its the best of both worlds.

So if demand dies down, Nvidia would rather restrict the supply to keep the prices high.



Once again I'm telling you: This is the new normal.
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I like to think that NVidia is trying to be like OPEC. When the price of oil gets too low, they agree on cutbacks in production.

And NVidia and AMD don't have to meet in some hotel room to "fix" prices. They don't have to. They just watch either other's behavior, just like the US airlines.

Si=i KazeoHin is right on all point in this post. These new prices may put a crimp on gamers' ability to upgrade, but the game software companies would have to pressure NVidia (and AMD) to reduce prices. In other words, hahahahaha.
 
Actually I think what this will do long term is push the viability of the streaming services. They didn't make much sense when your average guy has his own gaming rig, but when the world turns inside out like it has and now it's a fraction of the gamers who own a high performance gaming GPU, suddenly paying for a service to play a game at high settings sounds more enticing.

Like some have already stated. The actual supply is mostly irrelevant. AMD and Nvidia could increase their output 10 fold and we would be In the exact same position. Even Intel entering the market won't matter much if at all. Why? Because the miners that have hundreds of GPUs already are wishing they had thousands instead. And they're waiting for the next chance to continue buying them in bulk. All while your average gamer can't buy 1.
 
Shoganai said:
They're not coming down and worldwide chip shortages aren't going away anytime soon.
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Unfortunately, have to agree with this. Cards can’t be kept in stock = scarcity (real or created). Limited supply (chip shortage) + seemingly infinite demand (crypto) = high prices.
 
I'm gonna fall down from laughing soo hard when Intel gpu's match Nvidia's hash rates like for like at lower power. I may just get a 3080Ti yet.
 
Erebus said:
Unfortunately, have to agree with this. Cards can’t be kept in stock = scarcity (real or created). Limited supply (chip shortage) + seemingly infinite demand (crypto) = high prices.
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You want cards, here you go https://www.alternate.be/Grafische-kaarten/GeForce-RTX-Gaming

Granted the 3080 I bought last year for 849€ is now 1.699€ but sure prices will stay this high or go up still, not sure how many gamers have this much cash to burn, and even if the buy these, they won't buy the next gen at these or higher prices, they will wait it out until their cards die at those prices, seeing there has been stock over here for more then 6 months now I doubt these sell very well.

Unlike last year when cards sold out is minutes or seconds when they were priced at around the MSRP
 
learners permit said:
I'm gonna fall down from laughing soo hard when Intel gpu's match Nvidia's hash rates like for like at lower power. I may just get a 3080Ti yet.
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Even if the Intel cards are superior, what makes you think that helps availability any?
 
FlawleZ said:
Even if the Intel cards are superior, what makes you think that helps availability any?
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While true, if there's a "fab" that can produce and a player to take on the "existing" establishment, you have to admit, this would be a great time to be the new "spoiler". Just not sure if anyone is ready to jump on this golden opportunity. And, if it did happen, there would be a lot of shock and awe. It would take everyone by surprise. Would be long remembered...
 
cjcox said:
While true, if there's a "fab" that can produce and a player to take on the "existing" establishment, you have to admit, this would be a great time to be the new "spoiler". Just not sure if anyone is ready to jump on this golden opportunity. And, if it did happen, there would be a lot of shock and awe. It would take everyone by surprise. Would be long remembered...
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The only way Intel could be a "spoiler" to anyone is if they either suck at mining or are intentionally limited. The miners will be disappointed. They will not impact Nvidia or AMD in the current market.
 
KazeoHin said:
and another thing to add to that: there's nothing Intel can do to stop scalpers and dodgy resellers from inflating the price.
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That's not true, they can order all of their OEMs to limit sales to individuals and approved partners only, they can tell their resellers that they can't set their prices above MSRP, and more.

Even in places where these kinds of controls are illegal Intel can still contract with these companies in such a way that it's not illegal in all markets and the companies are in fact volunteering to conform to Intel's requirements.

The only reason AMD and Nvidia haven't been doing the exact same thing is that they don't have to. They and their partners can enjoy these profits because pretty soon they know Intel will disrupt the market. Both companies are lining their coffers in advance of a total balls-to-the-wall fight with Intel, a company with much deeper pockets.

FlawleZ said:
The only way Intel could be a "spoiler" to anyone is if they either suck at mining or are intentionally limited.
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They're going to tell all their vendors and distributors that if they sell even one of these to miners they'll have pay through their dicks if they ever want to see another Intel product again.
 
Axman said:
They're going to tell all their vendors and distributors that if they sell even one of these to miners they'll have pay through their dicks if they ever want to see another Intel product again.
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:joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful::joyful:
 
KazeoHin said:
and another thing to add to that: there's nothing Intel can do to stop scalpers and dodgy resellers from inflating the price
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Scalper that obviously very limited, but they can refuse to sell to dodgy resellers (do you need them to sell everything ?), look how common it is when sold in a reseller for a ps5 or xbox to be at the regular announced price, I do not know if Intel has in place the same pull to do the same, but I am not sure why it would be impossible.

FlawleZ said:
Like some have already stated. The actual supply is mostly irrelevant. AMD and Nvidia could increase their output 10 fold and we would be In the exact same position. Even Intel entering the market won't matter much if at all. Why? Because the miners that have hundreds of GPUs already are wishing they had thousands instead. And they're waiting for the next chance to continue buying them in bulk. All while your average gamer can't buy 1.
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That seem a strong statement, it would be really easy to get a Dell/Hp machine with the GPU you want (if that is not already fully the case) if the AMD/Nvidia output would increase 10 folds and even for floating one, isn't for many type of mining a diminishing return the more people mine the less it pays to do so ?
 
FlawleZ said:
Like some have already stated. The actual supply is mostly irrelevant. AMD and Nvidia could increase their output 10 fold and we would be In the exact same position. Even Intel entering the market won't matter much if at all. Why? Because the miners that have hundreds of GPUs already are wishing they had thousands instead. And they're waiting for the next chance to continue buying them in bulk. All while your average gamer can't buy 1.
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I do not agree. If you increase supply 10 fold prices would definitely drop and it would be easier to get a gpu. Mining demand does not scale infinitely, if there are too many miners it becomes less profitable.
 
Axman said:
Intel used to fix AMD's sales, you don't think they can fix their own?
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The question is why? as stated before, they can sell out and piss off gamers at a loss, or sell out and piss off gamers at a profit.

What would a NYSE traded business choose?

Why would Intel voluntarily lose money? This isn't like 2004 when they had nearly infinite supply and market dominance, and a single AMD CPU sold was an Intel CPU not sold. They are entering a market they do not exist in, with a huge amount of sunken cost, and this market is RAVENOUS for more product. They are 101% guaranteed to sell every single chip they make because AMD and Nvidia combined cannot satisfy the demand. You could even go so far as to say that they don't even need to 'compete'. Competition requires there to be choice... and when everything is sold out, you basically have a pass.
 
serpretetsky said:
I do not agree. If you increase supply 10 fold prices would definitely drop and it would be easier to get a gpu. Mining demand does not scale infinitely, if there are too many miners it becomes less profitable.
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Also, the idea that someone with 20,000 servers can add 100,000 more instantly suggests a concept called "infinite real estate" and maybe "infinite resources". I'm not sure even Google or Amazon would make that claim.
 
KazeoHin said:
The question is why? as stated before, they can sell out and piss off gamers at a loss, or sell out and piss off gamers at a profit.

What would a NYSE traded business choose?
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Because they have competition. Intel doesn't want any competition. They don't want to have to innovate or do anything if they don't have to.

If losing money now means taking customers away from AMD and Nvidia, they'll do it. They're going to start with mobile with gaming laptops, where they're still strong, and take over mind share from there, with consumer desktops using I+I bundles.
 
Axman said:
Because they have competition. Intel doesn't want any competition. They don't want to have to innovate or do anything if they don't have to.

If losing money now means taking customers away from AMD and Nvidia, they'll do it. They're going to start with mobile with gaming laptops, where they're still strong, and take over mind share from there, with consumer desktops using I+I bundles.
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As I said earlier, the GPU market is one right now where everything is selling out. A sale for AMD or NVidia is NOT a lost sale for Intel, because the market is so ravenous that AMD Intel and Nvidia will ALL sell out completely. They could sell for $1000 or $10, no matter what, they aren't taking any sales away from Nvidia or AMD, because Nvidia and AMD are all selling as many cards as they can. The ONLY time I can see Intel competing on price is IF demand dies down.
 
KazeoHin said:
A sale for AMD or NVidia is NOT a lost sale for Intel, because the market is so ravenous that AMD Intel and Nvidia will ALL sell out completely.
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I'm sticking to my prediction. Intel's going to set prices low and control the market, and if AMD and Nvidia don't do the same thing, everyone will hate them for it.
 
Axman said:
I'm sticking to my prediction. Intel's going to set prices low and control the market, and if AMD and Nvidia don't do the same thing, everyone will hate them for it.
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Yep, they are coming out with cheaper motherboards for 12xxx CPU's. I think this will be Intel's plan for their GPU's too.

2022 is gonna be one hell of a year, for better or worse.
 
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FlawleZ said:
It's not the only reason, but it's hands down the biggest. By a landslide.
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It's a major reason.
Now that Eth mining is dying, the ball will be in the consumers court.
Do not buy used video cards. Let the miners eat them at a loss. Buy new or wait for next Gen.
If you buy used cards that will flood the market, you've supporting miners and new retail stock price will remain high. Just wait.
 
Axman said:
Intel has a long history of making deals and selling products at a loss in order to maintain, retain, and grow market share. They don't care about profits today, they want people to buy their stuff no matter what.

AMD and Nvidia know they can only keep these prices high as long as they're not competing against Intel, then all bets are off. Intel doesn't care if they don't make money; they're not making any money already right now. If AMD and Nvidia don't address the consumer market, Intel will make sure they're synonymous with gaming for 2022, and then all that hard work will evaporate.

AMD and Nvidia are putting away large profits right now, but that money is for a rainy day, and the clouds are rolling in.
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i'm very close to people who work at intel. Intel also has a bad habit of not seeing things through and dropping projects before they ever bear fruit and spend literally millions to only break even. Larrabee is a PERFECT example of what should have been continued to be invested into since they are doing alchemist now.

The money is there. And the ability to use gpus as a second processor is only more tempting now. I have hope. As long as intel doesn't pull the plug too soon.
 
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