Vega Rumors

[razor1]

Cannon lake is dead for Desktop 10nm. Ice lake will be the next desktop likely q4 2018 if it's not delayed as has been rumored, but no conformation, been discussed in the Intel forum. So Intel and AMD will both still be on 14nm on the desktop still well 12nm technically on AMD but little difference. Intel if they stick to their launch will have the advantage in q4 and q1 or q2 AMD will have 7nm Ryzen answer out. That will be the bigger showdown for AMD and Intel then the current battle as the smaller process fight will be pretty much dead as 5nm is the wall for now. Will see how it all pans out in a year or so.

Err don't believe rumors when Intel is showing off wafers of 10nm Cannon lake already

http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/intel-shows-off-10nm-cannon-lake-cpu-3294613

Its really nice that you have so much faith in AMD, where Intel which has been kicking AMD's ass for pretty much ever reason possible from Fab to Tech, you have no faith in Intel why?

In one end you say AMD won't gain much because of. Its because of Intel that is why they won't grow much. AMD by itself has nothing to do with their marketshare or growth. Intel has full control over the market even with Ryzen out there. It all depends on what Intel does or does not do or if they screw up.

 

[Gideon]

Err don't believe rumors when Intel is showing off wafers of 10nm Cannon lake already

http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/intel-shows-off-10nm-cannon-lake-cpu-3294613

Its really nice that you have so much faith in AMD, where Intel which has been kicking AMD's ass for pretty much ever reason possible from Fab to Tech, you have no faith in Intel why?

In one end you say AMD won't gain much because of. Its because of Intel that is why they won't grow much. AMD by itself has nothing to do with their marketshare or growth. Intel has full control over the market even with Ryzen out there. It all depends on what Intel does or does not do or if they screw up.

You will be dissapointed when there is no desktop Cannon lake, just notebooks. https://hardforum.com/threads/intel...ke-icelake-tigerlake-sapphire-rapids.1945886/
Not a matter of faith in why I think Intel is having issues, have read quite a bit about their issues on 10nm and the delays tell the rest of the story. AMD on the other hand has been doing well with their new architecture and so far the move to 7nm has been going smooth, perhaps due to several companies working together on that node. That is all based on news and rumors cause obviously I cant walk around their fabs and check it out myself. AMD will gain ground slowly as it will take time for business to trust that they can deliver, that will take time and flawless delivery by AMD. While Intel talks a big game they have not been delivering as well as Coffee Lake is nothing more then a piece of paper right now. It's pretty clear they did a paper launch in hopes of hurting Ryzen sales, but that always ends up irritating people that want the product. Intel does in fact think its in total control of the market thus the high prices we shall see if they are right or not. Were never going to agree tho, we just see it differently.

 

[razor1]

You will be dissapointed when there is no desktop Cannon lake, just notebooks. https://hardforum.com/threads/intel...ke-icelake-tigerlake-sapphire-rapids.1945886/
Not a matter of faith in why I think Intel is having issues, have read quite a bit about their issues on 10nm and the delays tell the rest of the story. AMD on the other hand has been doing well with their new architecture and so far the move to 7nm has been going smooth, perhaps due to several companies working together on that node. That is all based on news and rumors cause obviously I cant walk around their fabs and check it out myself. AMD will gain ground slowly as it will take time for business to trust that they can deliver, that will take time and flawless delivery by AMD. While Intel talks a big game they have not been delivering as well as Coffee Lake is nothing more then a piece of paper right now. It's pretty clear they did a paper launch in hopes of hurting Ryzen sales, but that always ends up irritating people that want the product. Intel does in fact think its in total control of the market thus the high prices we shall see if they are right or not. Were never going to agree tho, we just see it differently.

Hmm I don't see anywhere from officially Intel saying any of these things do you? Even if they go with an 8 core CFL, they are still getting 5ghz out of CFL, do you see GF 14nm doing that? Do you think their 12nm with do that? their 12nm is just a modified 14nm, 500mhz is still nothing, that is taking a 3.7 ghz chip to 4.2. (boost clocks).

Remember when I said Zen will not go over 4.0 ghz on air? So many people had issues with me saying that? You know why I said that, I knew GF 14nm process wasn't made for high clock speed (at least not like Intel's later versions so the most they can get if they are lucky was Skylake level clocks which they didn't get). Do you know why I'm saying 12nm process from GF will not give them clock speed? Its because its a LP node. That means it wasn't made for clock speed, its made for power savings. When was the last time you saw high performance silicon coming on LP/LLP nodes that had high clocks? NEVER, even AMD's chips on 14LLP, have issues with clock speed right? Reason being the node wasn't made for it. Density vs Clock speeds its that simple. If Density goes up, clocks speeds drop on these types of nodes because the inter transistor heat gives way to increased leakage, and voltage can't be increased on these nodes to compensate. Hence why Zen hits a clock wall fairly quickly without exotic cooling. Vega too.....

You are an engineer, aren't there certain products made to do certain things? And only those things?

I don't see what you are saying because it has nothing based on reality of what these companies are doing, its based on marketing and BS feelings.

Its like boring out a cylinder too much sure you might get more performance but the cost is well those cylinder walls are getting mighty thin, you can't do those things with LP nodes. So end of the day all performance for Zen+ will have to come from architectural tweaks. Node will not give them anything. How much will they get from architecture, I'm not expecting too much. There is a reason why Zen's architecture looks so much like Intel's now and why Intel hasn't been able to get much IPC out of their architectures as of late. And if Zen is behind 35% due to architecture in IPC, well its probably not going to change much.

So behind with IPC will still be there, clock speed increases, with 12nm LP not going to happen. Stuck in the same position. What you get with 12nm LP chips are better mobile chips that's it and well rumors wise that is all Intel needs then, 10 nm CFL.

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ew-globalfoundries-12nm-node-future-cpus-gpus

AMD themselves said this about the new node

Foundry roadmaps are the closest thing the industry has to being set in stone, because deploying new nodes costs huge amounts of money. The nodes themselves take a substantial amount of time to build and complete, particularly when equipment changes are needed, and we already know that GF’s 7nm lines will be designed for EUV integration when available. Whether this is a purely marketing-driven maneuver or a necessary stopgap due to 7nm problems isn’t clear. But anyone expecting anything but the most modest of performance or power improvements is probably overselling the boost.

but if you read the article pretty much what I'm stating here

That’s not to say AMD won’t get any utility out of the new node — Vega could use a power consumption drop, while a few hundred MHz of additional CPU performance would give Ryzen a bit of a kick in lightly threaded or single-threaded scenarios, where it tends to be weakest against Intel. But absent any glaring chip design issues that have limited clocks or prevented lower power consumption, we can’t reasonably expect a 10 to 15 percent improvement in either metric to reinvent the wheel.

You are not going to see much change with this new node unless AMD changes architecture, did they have enough time to do that with Zen to Zen +? Not only that AMD pretty much stated Zen + is going to be Zen for the most part. No major changes even for Zen 3. All based on the same architecture right?

So I doubt any changes to architecture that will give it any more IPC or clocks. I would gander 10% clocks at most if we are lucky. So 200-300 mhz, not too much.

Also risk production in 1st half 2018, what does that mean? Mass production won't happen till mid to late 2018.

Products probably late 2018.

Well that just blew a hole through yours and mine Zen + going up against Coffee Lake anyways. Looks like Intel has nothing to worry about.

 

[Anarchist4000]

The worse thing they said was that Raven Ridge will miss Q4 for higher end laptops.

Was there a high, or even mid, tier RR planned? Those parts would need HBM to be plausible. Perhaps a Threadripper or Epyc platform with many memory channels to get the bandwidth. While there are undoubtedly sales to be had, I've never associated Christmas with high demand for laptops. That's more a back to school or business upgrade cycle which already passed.

 

[Anarchist4000]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20171023PD201.html

Tbh I totally forgot AMD is sourcing Vega for Apple. Might this explain the lack of supply? If AMD is having difficulties with yields I think they would ensure Apple gets their cut first before resupplying standalone cards.

I doubt it's a coincidence that coins are getting regulated and supply and price cuts arrive. Going off the financials, cards have been selling. Just not into the retail or OEM market.

 

[Gideon]

Was there a high, or even mid, tier RR planned? Those parts would need HBM to be plausible. Perhaps a Threadripper or Epyc platform with many memory channels to get the bandwidth. While there are undoubtedly sales to be had, I've never associated Christmas with high demand for laptops. That's more a back to school or business upgrade cycle which already passed.

I dont disagree with you, but Christmas is a important one to have product for as well. Will see so many things have been in flux lately, makes you think both companies are reacting to what the other is doing lately. Zen 2 was supposed to be the 7nm and now it's a refresh on 12nm and Zen 3 is now 7nm, bit hard to predict these days but at least hardware is interesting again.

 

[razor1]

Was there a high, or even mid, tier RR planned? Those parts would need HBM to be plausible. Perhaps a Threadripper or Epyc platform with many memory channels to get the bandwidth. While there are undoubtedly sales to be had, I've never associated Christmas with high demand for laptops. That's more a back to school or business upgrade cycle which already passed.

No Black Friday, Cyber Monday? Pretty big sales days for laptops and computer components. Granted still not as high as Back to School sales volume but Q4 is still a strong seasonal quarter.

And also that isn't the worst thing that Wall Street is worried about, Q3 should have been an outstanding quarter for AMD, they had new products, new businesses, IP licensing, and everything else they have been talking about for many quarters now, which looked like some of those things really didn't materialize in their bottom line, cause well outside of margins there doesn't seem like there really was growth, what is it 5% margins for AMD is around 100-150 million bucks, well they got 2% margins, 50-75 million, so they gained very little else where. AMD's guidance for margins in Q4 is also 35%, where console sales tend to get hit more then the other computer components, so why isn't margins budging, Console margins are way lower then the other components AMD sells. Those other factors AMD has been talking about also look like they won't materialize in Q4 either.

There is something there that isn't being told clearly, and Wall Street picked up on it pretty fast because well what isn't said is always more important than what is said. In this case they didn't really give good reasons why they would be dropping 15% total sales, usually sales volume drops around 10% form Q3 to Q4 (outside of launch quarters). So in this case, for AMD Q3 wasn't really a launch quarter, yeah Vega lunched but sales don't seem to be great on that.

Simple put its tough competition from their competitors that probably stopped those other things AMD has been saying to not materialize on their bottom line. And next quarter short comings also probably due to competition. With Intel's report coming tomorrow I think, we will get a better look at why that 15% drop is there. if Intel also gives guidance of 15% drop Q to Q in sales, then its seasonal, if its less than that and around the norm 10% drop, then its due to competition AMD wasn't able to penetrate into any market that they are going against Intel or nV.

 

[Algrim]

I dont disagree with you, but Christmas is a important one to have product for as well. Will see so many things have been in flux lately, makes you think both companies are reacting to what the other is doing lately. Zen 2 was supposed to be the 7nm and now it's a refresh on 12nm and Zen 3 is now 7nm, bit hard to predict these days but at least hardware is interesting again.

The iMac Pros are supposed to be available in December but if the Mac Pro 2013 release (what I call the Darth Pro), available systems won't happen into February or March. Not that that's AMD's fault; just a reality that we tend to have to accept with Apple's more ambitious designs. We don't even know (as far as I know) whether or not it's going to be a special variation of the Skylake-X or the Xeon W... I would have loved to see a Threadripper version though.

 

[SighTurtle]

Hoping Raven Ridge info. Probably just a sale.

 

[NKD]

for fuck sakes for the first time they actually made some profit! Rest I could give a fuck less about. Stop cooking conspiracy theories. Ryzen is just fine for the processor it is and in time it will only getting better. Yea I have intel, but people really need to get of intels nuts. They are not really doing anything better to keep me intrigued. Yes they have the mindshare now but if they keep sitting on their ass they will eventually lose market share! AMD doesn't seem to be sitting on their ass on the processor side atleast. I have no doubt Ryzen will only keep getting better. Shit for the first time they are positive that should be a decent news!

Yes intel still have advantage! But they are doing shady marketing, not disclosing turbo speed now and what not. Needing new boards when Asus actually came out and said that z270 could have supported the new processor but intel literally handcuffed them.

I respect intel but I wont let them always rape me for my money!

 

[SighTurtle]

for fuck sakes for the first time they actually made some profit! Rest I could give a fuck less about. Stop cooking conspiracy theories. Ryzen is just fine for the processor it is and in time it will only getting better. Yea I have intel, but people really need to get of intels nuts. They are not really doing anything better to keep me intrigued. Yes they have the mindshare now but if they keep sitting on their ass they will eventually lose market share! AMD doesn't seem to be sitting on their ass on the processor side atleast. I have no doubt Ryzen will only keep getting better. Shit for the first time they are positive that should be a decent news!

Yes, decent news! Except the stock is falling and if I was a investor, I would be asking myself why it's falling amid this "decent" news.

 

[NKD]

Yes, decent news! Except the stock is falling and if I was a investor, I would be asking myself why it's falling amid this "decent" news.

May be because epic and raven ridge still not being out and high end laptops coming out in 2018? Investors usually don't like any sort of delays, may be thats what triggered it. But I think they should be in decent shape in 2018. This may be due to them focusing on threadripper and trying to get those out the door first!

 

[ChosenUno]

May be because epic and raven ridge still not being out and high end desktops coming out in 2018? Investors usually don't like any sort of delays, may be thats what triggered it. But I think they should be in decent shape in 2018. This may be due to them focusing on threadripper and trying to get those out the door first!

They may be in for a big PR disaster with Ryzen. Seems like they outsourced the retention mechanisms to 2 suppliers, and Foxconn's ones are killing people's Threadripper.

Not sure if isolated incident, but judging from the comments, probably not. Seems like a known issue.

 

[razor1]

for fuck sakes for the first time they actually made some profit! Rest I could give a fuck less about. Stop cooking conspiracy theories. Ryzen is just fine for the processor it is and in time it will only getting better. Yea I have intel, but people really need to get of intels nuts. They are not really doing anything better to keep me intrigued. Yes they have the mindshare now but if they keep sitting on their ass they will eventually lose market share! AMD doesn't seem to be sitting on their ass on the processor side atleast. I have no doubt Ryzen will only keep getting better. Shit for the first time they are positive that should be a decent news!

Yes intel still have advantage! But they are doing shady marketing, not disclosing turbo speed now and what not. Needing new boards when Asus actually came out and said that z270 could have supported the new processor but intel literally handcuffed them.

I respect intel but I wont let them always rape me for my money!

That's the problem that is positive news for AMD, and still Wall Street isn't happy. Why? AMD's stock is well above what it should be, and AMD's Q results are not reflecting what Wall Street was hoping for. AMD expected to have closer to 40% margins (high 30%, 37% to be more precise) by now, that didn't happen. Wall Street didn't expect them to have 15% less sales next quarter nor did they expect margins to stay flat next quarter, usually Q4 margins increase for computer products. Higher end products sell in the holiday season. There should be more potentially increasing markers for AMD than negative markers in Q4, so its exactly opposite of what AMD is expecting. Seasonal shifts hurt companies that aren't growing more than companies that are growing another positive for AMD (AMD is a growing company, they have products that spurred that growth) and its not showing this either. That is not a good sign for a company that tends to be overly optimistic. Cryptomining dropping, is not really even a cornerstone of AMD GPU sales, this has been proven many times, not only that, Cryptomining is going no where, Bitcoin Gold is a GPU mineable coin, and with Eth not going to POS till end of 2018, Then you have all the Equihash based coins that are doing damn well (Bitcoin Gold is part of this too) its still going to be going strong for the foreseeable future.

There is a consensus among traders that the problems AMD is facing in Q4 is only their problems not the market problems. What those problems are AMD deflected in their financial call.

BTW 15% drop in sales is around 200 million bucks, so by AMD's forecast, they will be in the red by 100 million or so next quarter.

 

[NKD]

They may be in for a big PR disaster with Ryzen. Seems like they outsourced the retention mechanisms to 2 suppliers, and Foxconn's ones are killing people's Threadripper.

Not sure if isolated incident, but judging from the comments, probably not. Seems like a known issue.

not surprised foxconn will fuck something up lol!

 

[Gideon]

Well also keep in mind where a good chunk of their profit has gone https://overclock3d.net/news/cpu_ma...ir_r_d_budget_by_almost_22_in_the_past_year/1

 

[Hameeeedo]

Wolfenstien 2 benchmarks:

PCGH: Vega 64 equals GTX 1080
ComputerBase: Sometimes GTX 1080 is 20% ahead of Vega 64, other times Vega 64 is 10% ahead

http://www.pcgameshardware.de/Wolfe...us-im-Technik-Test-Benchmarks-Vulkan-1242138/
https://www.computerbase.de/2017-10...olfenstein-2-1920-1080-worst-case-testsequenz

 

[razor1]

Well also keep in mind where a good chunk of their profit has gone https://overclock3d.net/news/cpu_ma...ir_r_d_budget_by_almost_22_in_the_past_year/1

R&D is not part of profits, R&D is a fixed cost......

You need to go based on operating costs which is where it its part of. Now its good they increased that, but that doesn't show up in gross profits at all. So ya gotta look at total cash equivalents, and that is why that didn't change much and from last year Q4 its much lower. Also total debt went up from last quarter, another words they spent more then they took in.

Remember that one time charge from last Q4? That is what is still making this Q4 look good.

 

[sabrewolf732]

Wolfenstien 2 benchmarks:

PCGH: Vega 64 equals GTX 1080
ComputerBase: Sometimes GTX 1080 is 20% ahead of Vega 64, other times Vega 64 is 10% ahead

http://www.pcgameshardware.de/Wolfe...us-im-Technik-Test-Benchmarks-Vulkan-1242138/
https://www.computerbase.de/2017-10...olfenstein-2-1920-1080-worst-case-testsequenz

rpm is obviously not fully enabled yet.

 

[razor1]

rpm is obviously not fully enabled yet.

translation on the head line of pcgamers, computerbase also mentions it too.

Its active

The demo they used is Vulkan only too, no OGL path.

 

[sabrewolf732]

translation on the head line of pcgamers

Its active

The demo they used is Vulkan only too, no OGL path.

haha kidding, I just feel the need to defend my vega purchase.

FINE WINE!

 

[razor1]

haha kidding, I just feel the need to defend my vega purchase.

FINE WINE!

Looks like it depends on the scene, not sure till I get the game lol.

 

[sabrewolf732]

https://www.gamersnexus.net/game-bench/3096-destiny-2-gpu-benchmark-launch-performance-uplift

Destiny 2 benchmarked with new AMD drivers. Results look very good at 1440p and 4k with highest settings vs. 1080/1080ti.

 

[Chimpee]

https://www.gamersnexus.net/game-bench/3096-destiny-2-gpu-benchmark-launch-performance-uplift

Destiny 2 benchmarked with new AMD drivers. Results look very good at 1440p and 4k with highest settings vs. 1080/1080ti.

Yup, felt like Bungie borked AMD cards but glad AMD got that fixed.

Edit, hmm looks like NVidia need to get their driver team to fixed 1440p or 4k performance, that seems way off.

 

[Gideon]

R&D is not part of profits, R&D is a fixed cost......

You need to go based on operating costs which is where it its part of. Now its good they increased that, but that doesn't show up in gross profits at all. So ya gotta look at total cash equivalents, and that is why that didn't change much and from last year Q4 its much lower. Also total debt went up from last quarter, another words they spent more then they took in.

Remember that one time charge from last Q4? That is what is still making this Q4 look good.

Your being a bit obtuse, obviously a cost is not part of profits, but without profits you cant increase the R&D budget. If they had not increased the R&D budget then their profit would have been higher and while it's a fixed cost it can be raised and lowered as needed. Total debt is not a good way to look at a big company as payments to vendors can be part of it, lets say a large order of wafers they made and that cost is immediate while they make it back over the next quarter and then pay the vendor. Car companies do this all the time in how they pay vendors, its listed as a debt but no money has changed hands yet just a debt owed to the vendor who has actually spent the money but knows they have to wait a quarter to be paid for it.

 

[razor1]

Your being a bit obtuse, obviously a cost is not part of profits, but without profits you cant increase the R&D budget. If they had not increased the R&D budget then their profit would have been higher and while it's a fixed cost it can be raised and lowered as needed. Total debt is not a good way to look at a big company as payments to vendors can be part of it, lets say a large order of wafers they made and that cost is immediate while they make it back over the next quarter and then pay the vendor. Car companies do this all the time in how they pay vendors, its listed as a debt but no money has changed hands yet just a debt owed to the vendor who has actually spent the money but knows they have to wait a quarter to be paid for it.

Total debt has to be looked into in AMD's case, when their debt is worth 30% of the company its a big no no when you spend more then you take in.

Their debt was one of the things that got them into the position they are in now. They have 900 million cash in hand, they need to ensure they have 600 million cash in hand by 2019 . That means they have 300 million, with next quarter drop, what does that mean, down to 200 million cash in hand? Yeah. See debt is important here.

When a company that is making money and covering their debt that is fine. When a company is not making enough money to cover their debt that is bad.

yes i'm being obtuse to bring this up? Did I even have to bring this up? pretty obtuse right? What did I say its going to take years for AMD to do anything meaningful to help themselves, yeah years, like around 4 to 5 years. And in the mean time if Intel and nV keep going as they are, AMD won't make ground, they just sit in the waiting pool.

Oh yeah lets not forget, Wall street is not happy with AMD either. Said it before the results were coming out, that Intel pretty predicted it will do well in Q3, that means either Intel or AMD covering up things, and AMD results show us they aren't telling us everything. This is the same sentiment Wall Street is saying. So you can try to sit here and say AMD is fine, but I think we will see a mark able down fall on their stock.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-selloff-advanced-micro-devices-182143627.html

When you’re trading at more than 40 times next year’s earnings estimates, you need to have an accelerating growth story to support a higher share price. But AMD’s growth story isn’t accelerating anymore. Revenue growth next quarter is projected to be the same as this quarter, and that actually represents a significant sequential decline in revenues. Next year, revenue growth is expected to come down meaningfully.

This is what I've been saying there is no more growth potential in AMD, if it had growth potential, AMD would not expect a 15% drop in sales next quarter, its the simple, doesn't matter about R&D, this R&D is for what? Zen 3, cause Zen 2 is almost done or is done taped out. So using that money now, don't even know they need to cause all the Zen architectures should be fairly similar. And if AMD is starting to focus elsewhere on R&D, oh boy cause Intel isn't done yet, Coffee Lake is just the first response to Ryzen. Really hope they have more on something they can compete against vs going over and trying to do something on the graphics side, cause that is even a harder mountain to climb because of the release schedules.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...ll-street-2017-10-25?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Remember everyone was praising Ryzen's price/performance ratio

This was one of the causes of this

Analyst Kevin Cassidy at Stifel Nicolaus said that while the company turned in a “solid” third-quarter beat and fourth-quarter outlook, the gross margin expansion was “meh,” as it was in-line with his projection but should be higher given the better outlook and increased mix of new products.

Didn't I say this yesterday, margins weren't impressive.

Susquehanna Financial’s Christopher Rolland said he was “disappointed” that AMD’s gross margin outlook of “just” 35.0% was below his outlook of about 35.5%, as it made him wonder if AMD is underpricing its graphics processing unit (GPU) products.

Again margins

He said that even though the fourth-quarter revenue outlook was above consensus expectations, the pace of the sequential decline indicates “a deceleration in the core business,” and suggests “a marked slowdown” in sales to cryptocurrency miners.

Yes what did I say, Wall Street is getting over the over hype AMD has done with its products and now AMD has to deliver on the bottom line and they are not able to do it.

AMD can't be playing a price war to sell products and that is exactly what they have been doing. Taking a chip that should sell for 500 and putting it in the 350 bracket cause it can't perform in games as well. They have no choice. The simpletons thought Ryzen must be cheaper to make than Intel CPU's because of its smaller dies act as one BS. That only works if yields of Intel chips are crap. Which they aren't lol. So at the end Ryzen costs the same per mm2.

On top of gross margin concerns, Analyst Ambrish Srivastava at BMO Capital picked on AMD’s free cash flow (FCF), which he said was “disappointingly” below his estimate. “The question of earnings power and FCF continue to linger in our mind,” Srivastava wrote, as he kept his rating at market perform.

Cash flow, debt, serious issues coming up for AMD, guess I was obtuse for mentioning that......

 

[NKD]

Total debt has to be looked into in AMD's case, when their debt is worth 30% of the company its a big no no when you spend more then you take in.

Their debt was one of the things that got them into the position they are in now. They have 900 million cash in hand, they need to ensure they have 600 million cash in hand by 2019 . That means they have 300 million, with next quarter drop, what does that mean, down to 200 million cash in hand? Yeah. See debt is important here.

When a company that is making money and covering their debt that is fine. When a company is not making enough money to cover their debt that is bad.

yes i'm being obtuse to bring this up? Did I even have to bring this up? pretty obtuse right? What did I say its going to take years for AMD to do anything meaningful to help themselves, yeah years, like around 4 to 5 years. And in the mean time if Intel and nV keep going as they are, AMD won't make ground, they just sit in the waiting pool.

Oh yeah lets not forget, Wall street is not happy with AMD either. Said it before the results were coming out, that Intel pretty predicted it will do well in Q3, that means either Intel or AMD covering up things, and AMD results show us they aren't telling us everything. This is the same sentiment Wall Street is saying. So you can try to sit here and say AMD is fine, but I think we will see a mark able down fall on their stock.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-selloff-advanced-micro-devices-182143627.html



This is what I've been saying there is no more growth potential in AMD, if it had growth potential, AMD would not expect a 15% drop in sales next quarter, its the simple, doesn't matter about R&D, this R&D is for what? Zen 3, cause Zen 2 is almost done or is done taped out. So using that money now, don't even know they need to cause all the Zen architectures should be fairly similar. And if AMD is starting to focus elsewhere on R&D, oh boy cause Intel isn't done yet, Coffee Lake is just the first response to Ryzen. Really hope they have more on something they can compete against vs going over and trying to do something on the graphics side, cause that is even a harder mountain to climb because of the release schedules.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...ll-street-2017-10-25?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Remember everyone was praising Ryzen's price/performance ratio

This was one of the causes of this




Didn't I say this yesterday, margins weren't impressive.



Again margins



Yes what did I say, Wall Street is getting over the over hype AMD has done with its products and now AMD has to deliver on the bottom line and they are not able to do it.

AMD can't be playing a price war to sell products and that is exactly what they have been doing. Taking a chip that should sell for 500 and putting it in the 350 bracket cause it can't perform in games as well. They have no choice. The simpletons thought Ryzen must be cheaper to make than Intel CPU's because of its smaller dies act as one BS. That only works if yields of Intel chips are crap. Which they aren't lol. So at the end Ryzen costs the same per mm2.



Cash flow, debt, serious issues coming up for AMD, guess I was obtuse for mentioning that......

I don't understand. What is that AMD not doing on the CPU side? With ryzen they pulled off an ace with their budget. The new Ryzen APU with 4 core 8 threads, 15w with Vega based gpu inside is hands down nuts! I am not saying its a gaming powerhouse but for ultra portable that is a decent horsepower. I am already looking to get a ultrathin based on this chip! Are you saying ryzen is another bulldozer and amd has lost another 4 to 5 years to intel? I understand they got shit load of work to do on the GPU side, but they are on the right track on the CPU side. To assume otherwise is really being too critical given that ryzen is pretty dang competitive for what it is and it can only get better.

I think you are already said zen 2 zen 3 are all the same and no point. What has intel done other than clock speeds and locking people out of their motherboards? forcing them to upgrade mobos when they don't need to all for what? another 500 mhz? More people are starting to notice that as well. They are not doing anything to take my money either. I am rocking intel but I have totally lost interest in upgrading the cpu because of minimal gains and force motherboard upgrades.

 

[razor1]

I don't understand. What is that AMD not doing on the CPU side? With ryzen they pulled off an ace with their budget. The new Ryzen APU with 4 core 8 threads, 15w with Vega based gpu inside is hands down nuts! I am not saying its a gaming powerhouse but for ultra portable that is a decent horsepower. I am already looking to get a ultrathin based on this chip! Are you saying ryzen is another bulldozer and amd has lost another 4 to 5 years to intel? I understand they got shit load of work to do on the GPU side, but they are on the right track on the CPU side. To assume otherwise is really being too critical given that ryzen is pretty dang competitive for what it is and it can only get better.

Coffee Lake 4 core laptop parts are 5 watts You mean what its not doing, its not doing that. With an nV discrete chip it uses the same wattage and delivers better CPU performance same GPU performance (with a Maxwell part to boot). Since AMD stopped competing with Intel 10 years back on the CPU side, Intel was focusing on power savings on their CPU's on low end CPU's, and we have seen this play out when they go back to the high end we don't see those savings anymore and overclocking Intel's latest chips tend to draw quite a bit more power too. So their power envelope range for their architectures is more suited for the lower end chips.

If AMD doesn't do something drastic to get their IPC and Core Clocks up, with architectural changes, yes it will end up looking like BD for what ever is after CFL. Ryzen looks like Phenom vs Nehlam against Coffee Lake, with its current IPC and core clocks. GPU's are a lost cause right now, they won't be able to close the game for another generation at least because what is in the works is already been there. If they could only reach Maxwell's perf/watt and its been oh 2 generations almost. I don't see them competing in graphics till after Navi. Navi is taped out, what else can they do, well time to focus on CPU cause that is going to be their next launch. Zen +

They don't have the resources to do both.

I think you are already said zen 2 zen 3 are all the same and no point. What has intel done other than clock speeds and locking people out of their motherboards? forcing them to upgrade mobos when they don't need to all for what? another 500 mhz? More people are starting to notice that as well. They are not doing anything to take my money either. I am rocking intel but I have totally lost interest in upgrading the cpu because of minimal gains and force motherboard upgrades.

The new mobo was actually a normal upgrade cycle for Intel products, although you might not like it that is the way Intel has always done it. Now that aside, Coffee Lake does provide better threading performance over its counterparts too. multi threaded performance for the 6 core parts are damn close to AMD's 8 core parts, its probably a combination of both cores and IPC with the cache structure. This is a problem, AMD wasn't expecting a response from Intel this quickly, CFL was never supposed to be on 14 nm, was CFL even on the road map prior to 2 quarters ago? Only Intel knew about it and they weren't going to use it unless they had to. Their first goal was to get 10nm Cannon lake out but its taking longer then expected for 10nm so their back up plan of CFL was going in tandem with their primary plan, and they sped that up by Q or so.

CFL, yeah you can say its in short supply and what not, but doesn't really matter, Intel just showed what it can do with more then 4 cores at 380 bucks, and its better than what AMD can do in the same bracket with an 8 core chip. Wall Street sees this, we all see this. Prior to CFL launch this is what Wall Street was banking on and what AMD presented to Wall Street with Ryzen when it was first released. The whole marketing spiel, Lisa Su stating who plays games with top end CPU's at 1080p? Ryzen is multihreaded monster..... Yeah it is, but now when you look at it, why the hell does a 6 core chip keep up with an 8 core chip in multi threaded applications, and still kick its ass in games. Streaming and playing games you say, well Coffee lake does just as well too! There were no miracles should anyone expect Intel not being able to do with AMD does and more with their current architecture? Shit they didn't even need a node drop to do it. AMD to remain competitive somewhat with CFL 14nm has to drop a node or half node? Same situation AMD is in with GPU's. IF pascal wasn't there on 16nm, and nV just said oh we will wait with Maxwell, AMD would finally catch up with Maxwell's perf/watt lol. So both CPU's and GPU's currently are one gen behind still architecturally wise. IPC on a CPU is based on architecture right? 35% difference from Ryzen to CFL, KL, SL! Huge difference! Clock speed you can compare that to GPU's too, what nV gets out of 14nm and 16nm parts are more at less power than AMD can get out of 14nm for their chips. Same thing with Intel, Intel can get so much more out of their 14nm processes with their architectures its crazy. Its not a Sunday school thing where AMD needs to spend a weekend to learn these things. Its damn hard work lol. Is GF going to be able to provide everything to AMD to match up, nope, most of the work in on AMD's side, will they be able to do it? I doubt it not to anything reasonable to keep things close anyways.

Also why AMD started to give vague forecasts or no forecasts at all because they didn't know how Intel was going to respond and how it was going to affect them. If Intel didn't respond it would be all fine, I'm sure their margins would be going up now and next quarter.

 

[Digital Viper-X-]

Coffee Lake 4 core laptop parts are 5 watts You mean what its not doing, its not doing that. With an nV discrete chip it uses the same wattage and delivers better CPU performance same GPU performance (with a Maxwell part to boot). Since AMD stopped competing with Intel 10 years back on the CPU side, Intel was focusing on power savings on their CPU's on low end CPU's, and we have seen this play out when they go back to the high end we don't see those savings anymore and overclocking Intel's latest chips tend to draw quite a bit more power too. So their power envelope range for their architectures is more suited for the lower end chips.

If AMD doesn't do something drastic to get their IPC and Core Clocks up, with architectural changes, yes it will end up looking like BD for what ever is after CFL. Ryzen looks like Phenom vs Nehlam against Coffee Lake, with its current IPC and core clocks. GPU's are a lost cause right now, they won't be able to close the game for another generation at least because what is in the works is already been there. If they could only reach Maxwell's perf/watt and its been oh 2 generations almost. I don't see them competing in graphics till after Navi. Navi is taped out, what else can they do, well time to focus on CPU cause that is going to be their next launch. Zen +

They don't have the resources to do both.



The new mobo was actually a normal upgrade cycle for Intel products, although you might not like it that is the way Intel has always done it. Now that aside, Coffee Lake does provide better threading performance over its counterparts too. multi threaded performance for the 6 core parts are damn close to AMD's 8 core parts, its probably a combination of both cores and IPC with the cache structure. This is a problem, AMD wasn't expecting a response from Intel this quickly, CFL was never supposed to be on 14 nm, was CFL even on the road map prior to 2 quarters ago? Only Intel knew about it and they weren't going to use it unless they had to. Their first goal was to get 10nm Cannon lake out but its taking longer then expected for 10nm so their back up plan of CFL was going in tandem with their primary plan, and they sped that up by Q or so.

CFL, yeah you can say its in short supply and what not, but doesn't really matter, Intel just showed what it can do with more then 4 cores at 380 bucks, and its better than what AMD can do in the same bracket with an 8 core chip. Wall Street sees this, we all see this. Prior to CFL launch this is what Wall Street was banking on before CFL and what AMD presented to Wall Street with Ryzen when it was first released. The whole marketing spiel, Lisa Su stating who plays games with top end CPU's at 1080p? Ryzen is multihreaded monster..... Yeah it is, but now when you look at it, why the hell does a 6 core chip keep up with an 8 core chip in multi threaded applications, and still kick its ass in games. Streaming and playing games you say, well Coffee lake does just as well too!

Also why AMD started to give vague forecasts or no forecasts at all because they didn't know how Intel was going to respond and how it was going to affect them. If Intel didn't respond it would be all fine, I'm sure their margins would be going up now and next quarter.

But CFL brought 0 IPC improvements, so how would we end up looking like BD at all?

 

[NKD]

Coffee Lake 4 core laptop parts are 5 watts You mean what its not doing, its not doing that. With an nV discrete chip it uses the same wattage and delivers better CPU performance same GPU performance (with a Maxwell part to boot). Since AMD stopped competing with Intel 10 years back on the CPU side, Intel was focusing on power savings on their CPU's on low end CPU's, and we have seen this play out when they go back to the high end we don't see those savings anymore and overclocking Intel's latest chips tend to draw quite a bit more power too. So their power envelope range for their architectures is more suited for the lower end chips.

If AMD doesn't do something drastic to get their IPC and Core Clocks up, with architectural changes, yes it will end up looking like BD for what ever is after CFL. Ryzen looks like Phenom vs Nehlam against Coffee Lake, with its current IPC and core clocks. GPU's are a lost cause right now, they won't be able to close the game for another generation at least because what is in the works is already been there. If they could only reach Maxwell's perf/watt and its been oh 2 generations almost. I don't see them competing in graphics till after Navi. Navi is taped out, what else can they do, well time to focus on CPU cause that is going to be their next launch. Zen +

They don't have the resources to do both.



The new mobo was actually a normal upgrade cycle for Intel products, although you might not like it that is the way Intel has always done it. Now that aside, Coffee Lake does provide better threading performance over its counterparts too. multi threaded performance for the 6 core parts are damn close to AMD's 8 core parts, its probably a combination of both cores and IPC with the cache structure. This is a problem, AMD wasn't expecting a response from Intel this quickly, CFL was never supposed to be on 14 nm, was CFL even on the road map prior to 2 quarters ago? Only Intel knew about it and they weren't going to use it unless they had to. Their first goal was to get 10nm Cannon lake out but its taking longer then expected for 10nm so their back up plan of CFL was going in tandem with their primary plan, and they sped that up by Q or so.

CFL, yeah you can say its in short supply and what not, but doesn't really matter, Intel just showed what it can do with more then 4 cores at 380 bucks, and its better than what AMD can do in the same bracket with an 8 core chip. Wall Street sees this, we all see this. Prior to CFL launch this is what Wall Street was banking on before CFL and what AMD presented to Wall Street with Ryzen when it was first released. The whole marketing spiel, Lisa Su stating who plays games with top end CPU's at 1080p? Ryzen is multihreaded monster..... Yeah it is, but now when you look at it, why the hell does a 6 core chip keep up with an 8 core chip in multi threaded applications, and still kick its ass in games. Streaming and playing games you say, well Coffee lake does just as well too!

Also why AMD started to give vague forecasts or no forecasts at all because they didn't know how Intel was going to respond and how it was going to affect them. If Intel didn't respond it would be all fine, I'm sure their margins would be going up now and next quarter.

I was just talking about ultra books. I will also disagree with everyone who says Ryzen isn't competitive and anytime Its compared to bulldozer. Not even close. Its just going out of the way to justify intel, which I clearly don't understand. I agree with you on alot especially vega but here I have to disagree. What amd did with the budget they had was pretty spectacular. It may not have the clock speed, but IPC on ryzen is pretty dang good. yes intel has the clock speed advantage, like I always said if thats all AMD has to worry about then its not much of a worry. That will eventually come as well.

 

[razor1]

But CFL brought 0 IPC improvements, so how would we end up looking like BD at all?

When you have 6 core part matching an 8 core part in multi threaded and lays waste in single threaded application, with Intel, knowing they will come out with a 8 core CFL next year or Cannon lake what ever it is, you don't think its going to lay waste in all applications? Just have to look at Skylake X 8 core parts and see what it does to Ryzen 8 core parts. Shit Intel's 8 core parts keep up with Thread Ripper 12 core parts man (outside of heavily multithreaded) Which Thread ripper shouldn't be going up against an 8 core anyways, it should be going up against 10 core or 12 core or 16 core Intel's.

https://www.techspot.com/review/1465-amd-ryzen-threadripper-1950x-1920x/page2.html

Take this review, replace 7820x with CFL 8800 or what ever they want to call it and compare it to Ryzen 1800x, what do you have a complete ass kicking.

 

[razor1]

I was just talking about ultra books. I will also disagree with everyone who says Ryzen isn't competitive and anytime Its compared to bulldozer. Not even close. Its just going out of the way to justify intel, which I clearly don't understand. I agree with you on alot especially vega but here I have to disagree. What amd did with the budget they had was pretty spectacular. It may not have the clock speed, but IPC on ryzen is pretty dang good. yes intel has the clock speed advantage, like I always said if thats all AMD has to worry about then its not much of a worry. That will eventually come as well.

They will gain very little in ultrabooks, first off if people want gaming ultrabooks, its better to go discrete with a 1050 in there anyways. If they aren't gaming they well why would Vega's cores be useful? an extra 10 watt drain for no reason? 10 watts is a lot of power when you look at these ultrabooks. Kinda need battery life.

Saying that they will gain some, not much though.

 

[NKD]

They will gain very little in ultrabooks, first off if people want gaming ultrabooks, its better to go discrete with a 1050 in there anyways. If they aren't gaming they well why would Vega's cores be useful? an extra 10 watt drain for no reason? 10 watts is a lot of power when you look at these ultrabooks. Kinda need battery life.

Saying that they will gain some, not much though.

I really don't want ultrabook for gaming, but its nice to have little punch if you wanted to do stuff that is graphically intensive. If I could get quad core chip with lower power that has some power why not right? Thats all I am saying, don't need alot, but extra power then built in intel graphics is always handy.

 

[razor1]

I really don't want ultrabook for gaming, but its nice to have little punch if you wanted to do stuff that is graphically intensive. If I could get quad core chip with lower power that has some power why not right? Thats all I am saying, don't need alot, but extra power then built in intel graphics is always handy.

well how about the new surface? CLK with nV discrete, whole lot of punch but I'm sure its going to cost a butt load.

Ya gotta understand ultrabooks are premium products too.

 

[NKD]

When you have 6 core part matching an 8 core part in multi threaded and lays waste in single threaded application, with Intel, knowing they will come out with a 8 core CFL next year or Cannon lake what ever it is, you don't think its going to lay waste in all applications? Just have to look at Skylake X 8 core parts and see what it does to Ryzen 8 core parts. Shit Intel's 8 core parts keep up with Thread Ripper 12 core parts man (outside of heavily multithreaded) Which Thread ripper shouldn't be going up against an 8 core anyways, it should be going up against 10 core or 12 core or 16 core Intel's.

https://www.techspot.com/review/1465-amd-ryzen-threadripper-1950x-1920x/page2.html

Take this review, replace 7820x with CFL 8800 or what ever they want to call it and compare it to Ryzen 1800x, what do you have a complete ass kicking.

we all know its because of clock speed advantage. Why forget that. AMD wont be sitting on their asses when it comes to that. Also intel isn't really crushing the clock speeds, looks like 5ghz is the max still unless you are on liquid nitrogen. also they are not really crushing it in ipc either. Its all clock speeds and I have already admitted they have an advantage there.

 

[NKD]

well how about the new surface? CLK with nV discrete, whole lot of punch but I'm sure its going to cost a butt load.

Ya gotta understand ultrabooks are premium products too.

Yea I have hp spectre got it on sale for 1149f for my wife. 512gb ssd, i7 16gb of ram. Don't need to waste more money than I have to. I am not that premium I guess lol

 

[OutOfPhase]

we all know its because of clock speed advantage. Why forget that. AMD wont be sitting on their asses when it comes to that. Also intel isn't really crushing the clock speeds, looks like 5ghz is the max still unless you are on liquid nitrogen. also they are not really crushing it in ipc either. Its all clock speeds and I have already admitted they have an advantage there.

It it dangerous to assume Vendor A is making headway on their achilles heel and assuming Vendor B is not.

 

[razor1]

we all know its because of clock speed advantage. Why forget that. AMD wont be sitting on their asses when it comes to that. Also intel isn't really crushing the clock speeds, looks like 5ghz is the max still unless you are on liquid nitrogen. also they are not really crushing it in ipc either. Its all clock speeds and I have already admitted they have an advantage there.

its not clock speed only, IPC tests show that CFL has a 35% advantage outside of clock speed.

This is the first review out of a google search for CFL reviews

single core performance is higher by 20% right? So it looks like clock speed is giving them the advantage, but when we look at multi threaded performance, clock speed can't be the only thing that is helping Intel's 6 core part to keep up with AMD's 8 core parts. And we know AMD's SMT approach has advantages over Intel's multi threaded approach.

It just can't be.

And we just need to look back on reviews with equalized clocks of Skylake products vs Ryzen to see the IPC differences.

 

[Digital Viper-X-]

its not clock speed only, IPC tests show that CFL has a 35% advantage outside of clock speed.

This is the first review out of a google search for CFL reviews

single core performance is higher by 20% right? So it looks like clock speed is giving them the advantage, but when we look at multi threaded performance, clock speed can't be the only thing that is helping Intel's 6 core part to keep up with AMD's 8 core parts. And we know AMD's SMT approach has advantages over Intel's multi threaded approach.

It just can't be.

And we just need to look back on reviews with equalized clocks of Skylake products vs Ryzen to see the IPC differences.

That doesn't really answer his point about clock speed is the 8700k clocked the same as an 1800x in a single threaded load?

How far can intel push their core architecture ? we've been sitting at 4.5-5Ghz since Sandy Bridge, and they just now reliably pushed past 5hz.

Maybe it was lack of competition ,or maybe they need to move onto something different to achieve higher speeds.

 

[razor1]

That doesn't really answer his point about clock speed is the 8700k clocked the same as an 1800x in a single threaded load?

I agree it isn't that is is why I stated it looks like clock speed only lol but its not only clock speed, it is very hard to tell IPC from the benchmarks given..... really need to isolate by equalizing clock speed and core counts over various applications. But we have seen this though with Skylake vs Ryzen tests when Ryzen was launched, its around 35% difference in IPC. Even by AMD's own targets, they are just under Haswell level IPC.....

Any case, Intel stated they don't expect any drop in sales in Q4 not only that they expect an increase in revenue over this quarter, yes all problems that AMD is saying is coming from themselves. Added on top of this, Intel's revenue for computer products (client) remained flat year over year, AMD has made no ground or very little in market share overall.

About the core clocks and what not, Intel hasn't been focusing on anything other then lower power consumption for a long time now. And they have been doing it purely though node changes. So have to see what they can do with architectural changes. Even Coffee lake doesn't show much in this regard. Just more cores at the same power usage levels.