RTX 3xxx performance speculation

[whateverer]

There was a report I saw a few days ago saying one worker at TSMC tested positive and that their response was to take extra strict precautionary measures to ensure it won't spread far. I haven't heard anything negative about TSMC's response, so I guess that's a good thing.

Right, this is why I laugh at rumors that Ampere will be delayed. The majority of chips are going to come from TSMC, so again there's no reason they can't ship it on-time (if both Xbox Series X and PS5 are being made on the exact same process node, in the same factory).

Why they would delay their launch to Q4 to get lost in the rest of the console launch noise is beyond me to comprehend? The WCCFTech article only quoted a stupid forum poster as the source for the leak, and pointed at these "trying economic times" as a reason to delay until Q4

Sales of properly designed consoles have mostly been recession-proof (see PS2 not getting stopped by the Dot-Com crash, or the Nintendo Wii not getting crushed by the Greet Recession). Microsoft and Sony are not about to delay.

And one of the greatest GPU competitions ever happened during the Great Recession: Nvidia's G92/GT200 versus AMD's R700. Lower costs of Ampere should be a welcome change on the edge of a recession, and encorage more sales for RTX parts. Why would ANYONE delay, when we alredy have so much momentum?

People will continue to upgrade their video cards during a recession., They just might wait 3 months, or compromise on a cheaper card. But the best encouragement to get buyers back out there is something new and cheaper to make!

 

[Viper87227]

We'll see. Both Sony and Microsoft said they're not delaying the launch of their new consoles. TSMC still has its foundries open and running at this time.

In the past few days, Microsoft seems to have gotten a little bit more vague. They aren't saying there will be a delay or not (it's far too long to predict that), but they are finally acknowledging that the situation is not as certain as it was a month ago. I don't believe the concern is manufacturing, the concern is the global economy. If we're in a worldwide recession this holiday, that's not a good time to launch an expensive game console.

We will see. Obviously they both hope to launch this holiday. Internally, i bet they are loosing confidence Evey day.

 

[Snowdog]

There may be delays, but they will probably be in the area of a few weeks unless a critical manufacturer like TSMC is hit badly, and it looks like Taiwan is mounting a good CV defense with lots of testing.

 

[Marees]

There may be delays, but they will probably be in the area of a few weeks unless a critical manufacturer like TSMC is hit badly, and it looks like Taiwan is mounting a good CV defense with lots of testing.

Microsoft is comfortable with the supply side as of now

But demand side is a totally different story altogether

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulta...he-potential-of-a-xbox-series-x-launch-delay/

 

[Snowdog]

Microsoft is comfortable with the supply side as of now

But demand side is a totally different story altogether

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulta...he-potential-of-a-xbox-series-x-launch-delay/

Lower Demand is not No Demand.

Demand impact really won't delay launch. Realize that they stockpile for launch. Not launching only makes that stockpile sit there longer, not making money. If Demand is lower, you may actually launch sooner with a smaller stockpile, as you don't need as large an amount to meet a bigger demand.

If the production is there. I expect them to launch more or less on time.

 

[Viper87227]

Lower Demand is not No Demand.

Demand impact really won't delay launch. Realize that they stockpile for launch. Not launching only makes that stockpile sit there longer, not making money. If Demand is lower, you may actually launch sooner with a smaller stockpile, as you don't need as large an amount to meet a bigger demand.

If the production is there. I expect them to launch more or less on time.

Except that someone from Microsoft is literally on record saying demand is their only concern right now. A strong launch can set the stage for years to come, and if Microsoft doesn't think they will be able to move the number of units they would like to this holiday, that's a problem. Launching an expensive consumer product where the goal is to sell as many units as possible in hopes to secure larger marker share in an industry that for many is limited to one console purchase per generation... that's a risky proposition. The state of the worlds economy is important for a successful launch. Both Microsoft and Sony are without a doubt paying close attention to this, regardless of how confident they may seem externally out their launch targets. Equally important is what the other does... Microsoft wont want to allow Sony to launch without competition, and vice versa. Either both delay, or neither delay, I think we can be certain of that.

I'm not sure why this is really even up for debate in a Nvidia thread though. Whether or not the consoles launch this year doesn't really effect whether or not we'll see new GPUs this year. The tech will be ready, both AMD and Nvidia will be capable of launching. Similar to the consoles, that doesn't mean they will. Especially Nvidia. AMD is playing catch up, and could potentially capitalize on a struggling economy by coming out with a more affordable 2080 Ti-ish part. Nvidia likely is not eyeing affordable though, they are likely tracking to continue to be the performance, and price king. Trying to launch a $1200-$1500 GPU during a global recession could make for a very lackluster launch. If we end up with RDNA2 competing with a 2080 Ti, Nvidia might be better served to simply drop the price on the 2080 Ti and try to move a few more of those while people are spending less, and then come out with a 3xxx series when things are more stable next year.

I don't think any of us can predict what's going to happen this year, but I don't think it's wise to assume that things area going to just roll out as if nothing has changed.

 

[Snowdog]

Except that someone from Microsoft is literally on record saying demand is their only concern right now. A strong launch can set the stage for years to come, and if Microsoft doesn't think they will be able to move the number of units they would like to this holiday, that's a problem. Launching an expensive consumer product where the goal is to sell as many units as possible in hopes to secure larger marker share in an industry that for many is limited to one console purchase per generation... that's a risky proposition. The state of the worlds economy is important for a successful launch. Both Microsoft and Sony are without a doubt paying close attention to this, regardless of how confident they may seem externally out their launch targets. Equally important is what the other does... Microsoft wont want to allow Sony to launch without competition, and vice versa. Either both delay, or neither delay, I think we can be certain of that.

I'm not sure why this is really even up for debate in a Nvidia thread though. Whether or not the consoles launch this year doesn't really effect whether or not we'll see new GPUs this year. The tech will be ready, both AMD and Nvidia will be capable of launching. Similar to the consoles, that doesn't mean they will. Especially Nvidia. AMD is playing catch up, and could potentially capitalize on a struggling economy by coming out with a more affordable 2080 Ti-ish part. Nvidia likely is not eyeing affordable though, they are likely tracking to continue to be the performance, and price king. Trying to launch a $1200-$1500 GPU during a global recession could make for a very lackluster launch. If we end up with RDNA2 competing with a 2080 Ti, Nvidia might be better served to simply drop the price on the 2080 Ti and try to move a few more of those while people are spending less, and then come out with a 3xxx series when things are more stable next year.

I don't think any of us can predict what's going to happen this year, but I don't think it's wise to assume that things area going to just roll out as if nothing has changed.

Of course demand is a concern, but they didn't say, we aren't going to launch because demand is a concern.

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.

 

[Viper87227]

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.

That logic implies that either launch holiday 2020, or don't launch at all. The real question is, is a big launch in 2021 better than a mediocre launch in 2020?

We're already seeing this right now with movies. Obviously the reasons are different, movies are being delayed because people aren't going to theaters (and many have closed), but the underlying thought process is the same: better to sit on your finished product for 6 months to a year than try to launch it in a poor market, even though it's ready. The same logic could be applied to any major consumer release depending on what the world looks like later this year.

I want to be clear, I'm not saying any of the things we're talking about, be it consoles or video cards, will be delayed. I'm simply acknowledging that it's a very real possibility, heavily dependent on how long our global shutdown lingers, and how long the economy takes to recover from it. There ins't a person on this planet that can predict what's going to happen on this planet in the next 6 months, we've never experienced anything like this before.

 

[Gideon]

Of course demand is a concern, but they didn't say, we aren't going to launch because demand is a concern.

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.

No one wants to launch a product and watch it rot on the shelves because people have bigger issues with money then a new game console. This will only create demand to lower the prices in attempt to sell more or worse yet cause people to start to call it a failure. I would say a delay is likely.

 

[Snowdog]

No one wants to launch a product and watch it rot on the shelves because people have bigger issues with money then a new game console. This will only create demand to lower the prices in attempt to sell more or worse yet cause people to start to call it a failure. I would say a delay is likely.

That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.

 

[memememe]

its faster

 

[whateverer]

That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.

Right, once the product is ready to ship, you'd be brainless to sit on it

As long as the launch titles are ready, and you have distribution handled, what else are you waiting for?

If your console has an an ounce of good design/pricing, it will outlast any recesssion. The Great Recession didn't prevent the Wii plus Xbox 360 plus the PS3 from selling over 270 million units (the highest combined total of any console generation).

Not to mention the PSP + Nintendo DS setting mobile sales records in the same time period (with the most expensive portable consoles ever sold!)

High launch prices mean very little (unless it's over a hundred dollars difference between the two systems). You just have to build up enough launch hype, and if you have a plan for more exclusives/price cuts/new features down the road, your system will survive anything.

 

[Gideon]

That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.

People are worried about making rent or losing their house right now, not sure when they may be able to return to work or if their work will even still exist after all this passes. So yeah I bet lots of people are just chomping at the bit to buy 500 to 600 dollar video game consoles right now. Holding off and seeing if the economy recovers quickly will likely already be the game plan they will go with otherwise they may be forced to sell it a price that could seriously hurt them. You guys should go look at shuttered car plants and see all the cars just sitting in lots and then realize that demand is king and yes a manufacture will sit on supply in hopes to keep prices stable. Your also not considering this a world wide issue and not just a American issue.

 

[Elios]

The is just wrong on so many levels. While some may be hard hit, there will still be plenty of buyers.

As others pointed out. The USA great recession years were 2007-2009, and that didn't stop people from launching products. Wii launched right into the great recession and sold like gang busters. By your logic they should have sat on their hands till 2010, but which point it may well have missed their window. It's peak sales years were right in the worse years of the great recession.

View attachment 233410

the Wii also wasnt $800+ part of the what made the Wii sell so well was price. i can only hope the weak market gets nV to bring prices back to earth. 3070 at 400 bucks will sell well in any market. 3070 at 700 bucks will sit on shelves

 

[Auer]

the Wii also wasnt $800+ part of the what made the Wii sell so well was price. i can only hope the weak market gets nV to bring prices back to earth. 3070 at 400 bucks will sell well in any market. 3070 at 700 bucks will sit on shelves

I remember thinking (And saying) "No way that RTX shit is gonna sell at those prices, AMD will come out with equally good but cheaper stuff..."

Oh well. Also, there is no telling as of yet how "Weak" the market will be by launch time.

 

[Elios]

I remember thinking (And saying) "No way that RTX shit is gonna sell at those prices, AMD will come out with equally good but cheaper stuff..."

Oh well. Also, there is no telling as of yet how "Weak" the market will be by launch time.

projection in the US are saying something like 25% unemployment by the end of the year ... market is going to trash for any thing right now

 

[Nebell]

Of course demand is a concern, but they didn't say, we aren't going to launch because demand is a concern.

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.

Lower demand or not, every time Nvidia released a top tier card, it was sold out very quickly.
Pretty sure the situation will be the same now

Worst case scenario, it takes a couple of days longer to become sold out.
But people who buy €1500 GPUs are not the ones who struggle financially.

 

[TheHig]

Pretty much. ^

I see a slowdown across the board if the economy keeps tanking and more jobs are lost but the halo buyers are likely more insulated. I save money for luxuries like PC parts by packing lunch instead of dropping $10 bucks a day on that or flipping parts etc. Basically a slush fund and a delayed gratification scheme of some sort. People dropping anything other than disposable income on luxury items need a priority adjustment.

 

[drutman]

The only projection I see is price for the top tier well over $1200 and you will need to purchase 4 of them to get one that actually does work. Remember the 2080 ti Kyle review adventure? Plus the pandemic is really going to hit the economy hard with these lost jobs not coming back. I had a lawyer friend of ours use his stimulus check to get a rifle, and he lost his job this week. No job is safe.

 

[German Muscle]

The only projection I see is price for the top tier well over $1200 and you will need to purchase 4 of them to get one that actually does work. Remember the 2080 ti Kyle review adventure? Plus the pandemic is really going to hit the economy hard with these lost jobs not coming back. I had a lawyer friend of ours use his stimulus check to get a rifle, and he lost his job this week. No job is safe.

 

[Hagrid]

This is a speculation thread, so it is entirely possible that may be true.

 

[German Muscle]

https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-ampere-gtc-keynote/

 

[pippenainteasy]

Performance will come down to die size. Is Nvidia going to go big with first gen 7nm chips or are they going to sandbag? We shall see, and ultimately we may see 780Ti style price drops if AMD overshoots with big navi.

 

[defaultluser]

This is a speculation thread, so it is entirely possible that may be true.

Yeah, nobody can say if it was early GDDR6 issues, or if it was delivering the largest die known to man. But it was resolved within 6 months of release.

I don't expect to see massive die sizes first-gen 7nm , so I wouldn't expect as many issues as Turing.

 

[pippenainteasy]

Yeah, nobody can say if it was early GDDR6 issues, or if it was delivering the largest die known to man. But it was resolved within 6 months of release.

I don't expect to see massive die sizes first-gen 7nm , so I wouldn't expect as many issues as Turing.

I dont think there were the same complaints about defective Volta cards like with Turing, and Volta dies are even bigger.

 

[defaultluser]

I dont think there were the same complaints about defective Volta cards like with Turing, and Volta dies are even bigger.

This is fair. So, safe to blame early GDDR6 glitches?

AMD's first GDDR5 card (HD 4870) had a memory bug that prevented down-clocking of the ram (to prevent visible tearing when the clock speed changed). This was fixed with the release of the 5870, so I'm willing to blame it (and the Turing issues) on early memory controller flaws.

Of course, you'll never get a word about what caused the flaw from AMD, just like you'll never get confirmation from Nvidia about Turing Light-Show .

 

[5150Joker]

Except that someone from Microsoft is literally on record saying demand is their only concern right now. A strong launch can set the stage for years to come, and if Microsoft doesn't think they will be able to move the number of units they would like to this holiday, that's a problem. Launching an expensive consumer product where the goal is to sell as many units as possible in hopes to secure larger marker share in an industry that for many is limited to one console purchase per generation... that's a risky proposition. The state of the worlds economy is important for a successful launch. Both Microsoft and Sony are without a doubt paying close attention to this, regardless of how confident they may seem externally out their launch targets. Equally important is what the other does... Microsoft wont want to allow Sony to launch without competition, and vice versa. Either both delay, or neither delay, I think we can be certain of that.

I'm not sure why this is really even up for debate in a Nvidia thread though. Whether or not the consoles launch this year doesn't really effect whether or not we'll see new GPUs this year. The tech will be ready, both AMD and Nvidia will be capable of launching. Similar to the consoles, that doesn't mean they will. Especially Nvidia. AMD is playing catch up, and could potentially capitalize on a struggling economy by coming out with a more affordable 2080 Ti-ish part. Nvidia likely is not eyeing affordable though, they are likely tracking to continue to be the performance, and price king. Trying to launch a $1200-$1500 GPU during a global recession could make for a very lackluster launch. If we end up with RDNA2 competing with a 2080 Ti, Nvidia might be better served to simply drop the price on the 2080 Ti and try to move a few more of those while people are spending less, and then come out with a 3xxx series when things are more stable next year.

I don't think any of us can predict what's going to happen this year, but I don't think it's wise to assume that things area going to just roll out as if nothing has changed.

Your narrative makes no sense at all. You clearly have no experience running a business. NVIDIA wouldn't let AMD release a new batch of cards and "catch up" while they sit on Ampere, your "reasoning" is extremely flawed.

As for this artificial recession, it'll subside soon enough. There's been two studies done in California that shows Covid-19 is far more widespread than initially thought and we may reach herd immunity a lot quicker than these so called experts think. Of course some of them are trying to claim false positive invalidates the Stanford study but the USC one is fine: https://pressroom.usc.edu/preliminary-results-of-usc-la-county-covid-19-study-released/ While covid-19 is a very real threat, the media always whips up a frenzy to get ratings. This thing will blow over soon enough and when it does, most people who got furloughed or lost jobs should be able to gain employment again quickly. So I don't even see this virus impacting Christmas sales, it'll probably be curbed by the end of summer.

 

[Blackstone]

As has been the case for decades, whether you need/wanr a 3080ti depends on 1. The games 2. The resolution you use and 3. whether it has features you need.

Clearly, Raytracing creates a whole new argument for why you need might RTX hardware, but sometimes it takes generations for new tech to be adopted and for the hardware to be able to deliver sufficient FPS.

Personally, I’d need to see widespread adoption of RTX raytracing and really great frames before buying in.

 

[Snowdog]

Personally, I’d need to see widespread adoption of RTX raytracing and really great frames before buying in.

Considering that by the end of the year, Both Sony and MS Consoles, Both NVidia and AMD higher end GPUs will all have RT HW, you would have to be very short sighted to buy a GPU without RT HW going forward.

 

[Gideon]

Considering that by the end of the year, Both Sony and MS Consoles, Both NVidia and AMD higher end GPUs will all have RT HW, you would have to be very short sighted to buy a GPU without RT HW going forward.

Not really, it's at best a add-on that most people turn off to actually play the game at acceptable performance. Most games are using it to tack on a little flair and not much more as the performance cost is far too high. It will still be years before it will become something more then just a toggle effect.

 

[Snowdog]

Not really, it's at best a add-on that most people turn off to actually play the game at acceptable performance. Most games are using it to tack on a little flair and not much more as the performance cost is far too high. It will still be years before it will become something more then just a toggle effect.

Keep telling yourself the grapes are sour. DLSS 2.0 + RT basically lets you have RT effects for negligible performance impact.

 

[Hagrid]

Keep telling yourself the grapes are sour. DLSS 2.0 + RT basically lets you have RT effects for negligible performance impact.

Is it the same quality as non DLSS/RT full everything on?

 

[oldmanbal]

Worst case scenario, it takes a couple of days longer to become sold out.
But people who buy €1500 GPUs are not the ones who struggle financially.

Honestly I don't think that statement is entirely accurate. There are a lot of enthusiasts that blow all their money on computer hardware, for some it's an addiction. When I was in college, there were countless times I would work jobs either over Christmas or Summer break and end up spending a majority, if not all of my earnings on the new flagship gpu like the sacred 9700pro. There will always be people that just have to have something, lifestyle be damned. Also, gamers and enthusiasts have been waiting for what seems like forever to find a beat of a card to upgrade to. The limited gains in raw power that were kept in check by making room for rtx on the die left a lot of people waiting for more. Until game designers use raytracing as the tentpole of the graphics rendering pipeline, the thirst for raw power will still drive demand. Especially if it takes 10 more years to get raytracing to run where most people thought it was going to be running today. Looking at a game like minecraft that has been modded for raytracing, which could have been an n64 game visual wise, shows the scale of improvement we're still searching for.

 

[Gideon]

Keep telling yourself the grapes are sour. DLSS 2.0 + RT basically lets you have RT effects for negligible performance impact.

On all of 3 games so far, while previous RT games dont seem to be adding it. Your hanging your hat on a feature that has of yet to show wide spread support and no one seems to be rushing to add it to older games with RT features. Nifty feature it is, but without wide spread support it really doesn't mean much.

 

[pippenainteasy]

This is fair. So, safe to blame early GDDR6 glitches?

AMD's first GDDR5 card (HD 4870) had a memory bug that prevented down-clocking of the ram (to prevent visible tearing when the clock speed changed). This was fixed with the release of the 5870, so I'm willing to blame it (and the Turing issues) on early memory controller flaws.

Of course, you'll never get a word about what caused the flaw from AMD, just like you'll never get confirmation from Nvidia about Turing Light-Show .

During overclocking competitions shortly after launch, reports were only Turing GPUs with Samsung GDDR6 were having issues, cards with Micron chips were doing just fine. So chances are it was mostly just Samsung manufacturing glitches.

 

[defaultluser]

During overclocking competitions shortly after launch, reports were only Turing GPUs with Samsung GDDR6 were having issues, cards with Micron chips were doing just fine. So chances are it was mostly just Samsung manufacturing glitches.

That's quite likely.

AMD may also have been faultless with their GDDR5 clocking problems, as the sole launch partner was Qimonda[/url]. The company was out-of-business by 2009, despite receive a bailou!

Sounds kinda suspicious to me, but everyone else happily took the manufacturing load by 2009. We will never know if they just fixed the bug in their memory controller, or if they officially switched suppliers.

 

[Snowdog]

On all of 3 games so far, while previous RT games dont seem to be adding it. Your hanging your hat on a feature that has of yet to show wide spread support and no one seems to be rushing to add it to older games with RT features. Nifty feature it is, but without wide spread support it really doesn't mean much.

It's not like it will stop at 3 games. In case you haven't noticed developers quickly stop working on even fixing obvious simple bugs in their games once they are past their sales peak, and move on to new projects that generate more revenue. Getting them to go back and change anything isn't likely.

But going forward, the new DLSS 2.0 (or some better future version) is that will be used, and it's easier to use because it doesn't require per gaming training anymore.

 

[Auer]

DLSS is a factor for me at least. But hoping for "3070" 4K performance to be at 60fps High/Ultra, something my 2070 struggles with in many titles.

Scaling sliders help, but usually I end up with 2880x1620 scaled to 4K which looks fine, but native would be nice...Maybe a 3080 this time and get a second 4K monitor with 120hz..?

Overall very happy with what I've gotten out of my 2070 tho, almost a year and a half of fun and reliable performance. Money well spent.
Messing around with RTX was gravy.

 

[III_Slyflyer_III]

Is it the same quality as non DLSS/RT full everything on?

DLSS 2.0 pretty much bridged that gap completely. Granted, it will be neat to see newer games use this to truely compare image quality on multiple game engines, but Wolfenstein youngblood actually looks much better with DLSS on at 4k than with it off! While that game was "meh", the graphics were a great showcase of how smooth and good RT could look. I was averaging 90~110 FPS the entire game at 4k, fully maxed, with RT and DLSS set to Quality.

 

[defaultluser]

So I have worked in capital markets and finance my whole life, you cant compare issues we have today to those back in 2008 where the entire financial system was facing collapse. Its not even close. I worked during 2008 and 2009 crisis (actually in a building next to Bear Sterns where most of my friends were), it is not a relevant comparison to what we have now.

Right, and even though 2009 was the peak-of-unemployment for the Great Recession, it didn't prevent successful video card launches. The performance topping HD 5870 launched in September 20009, and it's response from NVIDIA launched in March 2010.

It was such a popular launch, they couldn't keep the 5870/5850 cards in-stock for the entire first year - even though the launch prices were almost a hundred dollars higher than their predecessors!

As long as you offer an impressive improvement over the previous generation, you'll move product during the peak of unemployment. Video games are played the most when folks are unemployed/students (and they still scrounge the cash somehow!).