RTX 3xxx performance speculation

whateverer

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 2, 2016
Messages
1,078
There was a report I saw a few days ago saying one worker at TSMC tested positive and that their response was to take extra strict precautionary measures to ensure it won't spread far. I haven't heard anything negative about TSMC's response, so I guess that's a good thing.

Right, this is why I laugh at rumors that Ampere will be delayed. The majority of chips are going to come from TSMC, so again there's no reason they can't ship it on-time (if both Xbox Series X and PS5 are being made on the exact same process node, in the same factory).

Why they would delay their launch to Q4 to get lost in the rest of the console launch noise is beyond me to comprehend? The WCCFTech article only quoted a stupid forum poster as the source for the leak, and pointed at these "trying economic times" as a reason to delay until Q4 :rolleyes:

Sales of properly designed consoles have mostly been recession-proof (see PS2 not getting stopped by the Dot-Com crash, or the Nintendo Wii not getting crushed by the Greet Recession). Microsoft and Sony are not about to delay.

And one of the greatest GPU competitions ever happened during the Great Recession: Nvidia's G92/GT200 versus AMD's R700. Lower costs of Ampere should be a welcome change on the edge of a recession, and encorage more sales for RTX parts. Why would ANYONE delay, when we alredy have so much momentum?

People will continue to upgrade their video cards during a recession., They just might wait 3 months, or compromise on a cheaper card. But the best encouragement to get buyers back out there is something new and cheaper to make!
 
Last edited:

Viper87227

Fully [H]
Joined
Jun 2, 2004
Messages
17,509
We'll see. Both Sony and Microsoft said they're not delaying the launch of their new consoles. TSMC still has its foundries open and running at this time.
In the past few days, Microsoft seems to have gotten a little bit more vague. They aren't saying there will be a delay or not (it's far too long to predict that), but they are finally acknowledging that the situation is not as certain as it was a month ago. I don't believe the concern is manufacturing, the concern is the global economy. If we're in a worldwide recession this holiday, that's not a good time to launch an expensive game console.

We will see. Obviously they both hope to launch this holiday. Internally, i bet they are loosing confidence Evey day.
 

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
10,232
There may be delays, but they will probably be in the area of a few weeks unless a critical manufacturer like TSMC is hit badly, and it looks like Taiwan is mounting a good CV defense with lots of testing.
 

Marees

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 28, 2018
Messages
344

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
10,232
Microsoft is comfortable with the supply side as of now

But demand side is a totally different story altogether

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulta...he-potential-of-a-xbox-series-x-launch-delay/
Lower Demand is not No Demand.

Demand impact really won't delay launch. Realize that they stockpile for launch. Not launching only makes that stockpile sit there longer, not making money. If Demand is lower, you may actually launch sooner with a smaller stockpile, as you don't need as large an amount to meet a bigger demand.

If the production is there. I expect them to launch more or less on time.
 

Viper87227

Fully [H]
Joined
Jun 2, 2004
Messages
17,509
Lower Demand is not No Demand.

Demand impact really won't delay launch. Realize that they stockpile for launch. Not launching only makes that stockpile sit there longer, not making money. If Demand is lower, you may actually launch sooner with a smaller stockpile, as you don't need as large an amount to meet a bigger demand.

If the production is there. I expect them to launch more or less on time.
Except that someone from Microsoft is literally on record saying demand is their only concern right now. A strong launch can set the stage for years to come, and if Microsoft doesn't think they will be able to move the number of units they would like to this holiday, that's a problem. Launching an expensive consumer product where the goal is to sell as many units as possible in hopes to secure larger marker share in an industry that for many is limited to one console purchase per generation... that's a risky proposition. The state of the worlds economy is important for a successful launch. Both Microsoft and Sony are without a doubt paying close attention to this, regardless of how confident they may seem externally out their launch targets. Equally important is what the other does... Microsoft wont want to allow Sony to launch without competition, and vice versa. Either both delay, or neither delay, I think we can be certain of that.

I'm not sure why this is really even up for debate in a Nvidia thread though. Whether or not the consoles launch this year doesn't really effect whether or not we'll see new GPUs this year. The tech will be ready, both AMD and Nvidia will be capable of launching. Similar to the consoles, that doesn't mean they will. Especially Nvidia. AMD is playing catch up, and could potentially capitalize on a struggling economy by coming out with a more affordable 2080 Ti-ish part. Nvidia likely is not eyeing affordable though, they are likely tracking to continue to be the performance, and price king. Trying to launch a $1200-$1500 GPU during a global recession could make for a very lackluster launch. If we end up with RDNA2 competing with a 2080 Ti, Nvidia might be better served to simply drop the price on the 2080 Ti and try to move a few more of those while people are spending less, and then come out with a 3xxx series when things are more stable next year.

I don't think any of us can predict what's going to happen this year, but I don't think it's wise to assume that things area going to just roll out as if nothing has changed.
 

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
10,232
Except that someone from Microsoft is literally on record saying demand is their only concern right now. A strong launch can set the stage for years to come, and if Microsoft doesn't think they will be able to move the number of units they would like to this holiday, that's a problem. Launching an expensive consumer product where the goal is to sell as many units as possible in hopes to secure larger marker share in an industry that for many is limited to one console purchase per generation... that's a risky proposition. The state of the worlds economy is important for a successful launch. Both Microsoft and Sony are without a doubt paying close attention to this, regardless of how confident they may seem externally out their launch targets. Equally important is what the other does... Microsoft wont want to allow Sony to launch without competition, and vice versa. Either both delay, or neither delay, I think we can be certain of that.

I'm not sure why this is really even up for debate in a Nvidia thread though. Whether or not the consoles launch this year doesn't really effect whether or not we'll see new GPUs this year. The tech will be ready, both AMD and Nvidia will be capable of launching. Similar to the consoles, that doesn't mean they will. Especially Nvidia. AMD is playing catch up, and could potentially capitalize on a struggling economy by coming out with a more affordable 2080 Ti-ish part. Nvidia likely is not eyeing affordable though, they are likely tracking to continue to be the performance, and price king. Trying to launch a $1200-$1500 GPU during a global recession could make for a very lackluster launch. If we end up with RDNA2 competing with a 2080 Ti, Nvidia might be better served to simply drop the price on the 2080 Ti and try to move a few more of those while people are spending less, and then come out with a 3xxx series when things are more stable next year.

I don't think any of us can predict what's going to happen this year, but I don't think it's wise to assume that things area going to just roll out as if nothing has changed.
Of course demand is a concern, but they didn't say, we aren't going to launch because demand is a concern.

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.
 

Viper87227

Fully [H]
Joined
Jun 2, 2004
Messages
17,509
A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.
That logic implies that either launch holiday 2020, or don't launch at all. The real question is, is a big launch in 2021 better than a mediocre launch in 2020?

We're already seeing this right now with movies. Obviously the reasons are different, movies are being delayed because people aren't going to theaters (and many have closed), but the underlying thought process is the same: better to sit on your finished product for 6 months to a year than try to launch it in a poor market, even though it's ready. The same logic could be applied to any major consumer release depending on what the world looks like later this year.

I want to be clear, I'm not saying any of the things we're talking about, be it consoles or video cards, will be delayed. I'm simply acknowledging that it's a very real possibility, heavily dependent on how long our global shutdown lingers, and how long the economy takes to recover from it. There ins't a person on this planet that can predict what's going to happen on this planet in the next 6 months, we've never experienced anything like this before.
 

Gideon

2[H]4U
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
2,522
Of course demand is a concern, but they didn't say, we aren't going to launch because demand is a concern.

A big launch would be better, but any launch is better than no launch.
No one wants to launch a product and watch it rot on the shelves because people have bigger issues with money then a new game console. This will only create demand to lower the prices in attempt to sell more or worse yet cause people to start to call it a failure. I would say a delay is likely.
 

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
10,232
No one wants to launch a product and watch it rot on the shelves because people have bigger issues with money then a new game console. This will only create demand to lower the prices in attempt to sell more or worse yet cause people to start to call it a failure. I would say a delay is likely.
That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.
 
Last edited:

whateverer

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 2, 2016
Messages
1,078
That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.

Right, once the product is ready to ship, you'd be brainless to sit on it

As long as the launch titles are ready, and you have distribution handled, what else are you waiting for?

If your console has an an ounce of good design/pricing, it will outlast any recesssion. The Great Recession didn't prevent the Wii plus Xbox 360 plus the PS3 from selling over 270 million units (the highest combined total of any console generation).

Not to mention the PSP + Nintendo DS setting mobile sales records in the same time period (with the most expensive portable consoles ever sold!)

High launch prices mean very little (unless it's over a hundred dollars difference between the two systems). You just have to build up enough launch hype, and if you have a plan for more exclusives/price cuts/new features down the road, your system will survive anything.
 
Last edited:

Gideon

2[H]4U
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
2,522
That's a nonsense argument.

Not going to rot on shelves. Release can be primarily mail order initially, if there are still concerns later in the year, about physical retail getting rolling.

The first year is NEVER the biggest year for consoles. They build momentum over time. PlayStation usually reaches peak sales in year 4 to 5.

If you look at PS5 and XBSX, and one of them is dumb enough to sit on their hands while the other lauches, that is only going to put the moron sitting on their hands behind.

People are worried about making rent or losing their house right now, not sure when they may be able to return to work or if their work will even still exist after all this passes. So yeah I bet lots of people are just chomping at the bit to buy 500 to 600 dollar video game consoles right now. Holding off and seeing if the economy recovers quickly will likely already be the game plan they will go with otherwise they may be forced to sell it a price that could seriously hurt them. You guys should go look at shuttered car plants and see all the cars just sitting in lots and then realize that demand is king and yes a manufacture will sit on supply in hopes to keep prices stable. Your also not considering this a world wide issue and not just a American issue.
 

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
10,232
People are worried about making rent or losing their house right now, not sure when they may be able to return to work or if their work will even still exist after all this passes. So yeah I bet lots of people are just chomping at the bit to buy 500 to 600 dollar video game consoles right now. Holding off and seeing if the economy recovers quickly will likely already be the game plan they will go with otherwise they may be forced to sell it a price that could seriously hurt them. You guys should go look at shuttered car plants and see all the cars just sitting in lots and then realize that demand is king and yes a manufacture will sit on supply in hopes to keep prices stable. Your also not considering this a world wide issue and not just a American issue.
The is just wrong on so many levels. While some may be hard hit, there will still be plenty of buyers.

As others pointed out. The USA great recession years were 2007-2009, and that didn't stop people from launching products. Wii launched right into the great recession and sold like gang busters. By your logic they should have sat on their hands till 2010, but which point it may well have missed their window. It's peak sales years were right in the worse years of the great recession.

wii-annual-sales-2012.png
 

Elios

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 12, 2004
Messages
7,211
The is just wrong on so many levels. While some may be hard hit, there will still be plenty of buyers.

As others pointed out. The USA great recession years were 2007-2009, and that didn't stop people from launching products. Wii launched right into the great recession and sold like gang busters. By your logic they should have sat on their hands till 2010, but which point it may well have missed their window. It's peak sales years were right in the worse years of the great recession.

View attachment 233410
the Wii also wasnt $800+ part of the what made the Wii sell so well was price. i can only hope the weak market gets nV to bring prices back to earth. 3070 at 400 bucks will sell well in any market. 3070 at 700 bucks will sit on shelves
 

Auer

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 2, 2018
Messages
1,561
the Wii also wasnt $800+ part of the what made the Wii sell so well was price. i can only hope the weak market gets nV to bring prices back to earth. 3070 at 400 bucks will sell well in any market. 3070 at 700 bucks will sit on shelves
I remember thinking (And saying) "No way that RTX shit is gonna sell at those prices, AMD will come out with equally good but cheaper stuff..."

Oh well. Also, there is no telling as of yet how "Weak" the market will be by launch time.
 

Elios

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 12, 2004
Messages
7,211
I remember thinking (And saying) "No way that RTX shit is gonna sell at those prices, AMD will come out with equally good but cheaper stuff..."

Oh well. Also, there is no telling as of yet how "Weak" the market will be by launch time.
projection in the US are saying something like 25% unemployment by the end of the year ... market is going to trash for any thing right now
 
Top