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HDD prices rising

I'm wondering if we will be able to get drives Warranted from manufacturers?
 
PC World says hard drive prices going up in this Oct 28 blog post...
... but PC World also says hard drive prices "unlikely" to rise in this Oct 30 article.

I'm not gonna discount a shortage that causes a longer term price increase from the low prices of a month ago, but I'm also thinking there's a little bit of a near term knee-jerk buying panic here that has over-inflated prices. Someone from Netgear directly blames speculators in this Oct 28 article... though that reminds me of what the government does every time oil prices rise to the point of getting media attention (oddly, they never seem to mention speculators when panic selling is going on).

True price discovery is simply going to take some time.

I'm also suspicious that PC vendors/suppliers like Acer (Oct 28 article), Asustek (Nov 1 article), Samsung (Oct 30 article), et al, are taking this opportunity to link their overall economic malaise to this event since it's a lot easier than accepting the fact that a structural business change at the desktop level may be occurring, and/or because it simply helps their management deflect blame from shareholders while they figure out their longer term strategies.
 
Now you guys understand why merchants raised the price - so those who actually need the drives can get them.

I could use 3 2TB drives by the first of the year, but I can get by forever with what I have.
 
The Spyder said:
Sold out online and at all local stores :(
Click to expand...

FYI, I just pulled the trigger on 2 of them, and they weren't in stock anymore at my store, so the site gave me the option of shipping them to my store instead. Perhaps that will work for you, too? (in reference to the $75 seagate 2TBs)
 
Oil rises before there is any shortage, and when there are shortages they're very relative, a few percents production lacking at most.

Here, we're talking one quarter, maybe a third, maybe more, of the production lacking, it's more than significant ! And us buying drives at the individual level are not really prime customers, we'll be dead last to be considered, let alone satisfied !
 
Aesma said:
Here, we're talking one quarter, maybe a third, maybe more, of the production lacking, it's more than significant ! And us buying drives at the individual level are not really prime customers, we'll be dead last to be considered, let alone satisfied !
Click to expand...

40% of all hard drive production, 60% of WDC production.
 
Aesma said:
You guys are lucky in the US, here (France) things are even worse. First, there is no big box store that sells components at good prices usually, so now there is even less chance (well, in fact, some of those expensive prices of a few weeks ago do not look so bad now, but still, I won't be paying 100€ or more for a 1TB drive). Hitachi drives have never been really available nor cheap either, so now, they're out of the question. As for eBay, there are crazy buy it now prices too, but even auctions starting low, for used drives, go to at least 50% more than new drives 2 weeks ago.
Click to expand...

Aus here....if you look around eBay you should be able to find some 1TB for around 40 euros.
 
Argentum said:
NewEgg Business currently lists the HITACHI Deskstar 0S03230 3TB 5400 RPM @ $129 (here) but NewEgg has the exact same drive for $219 (here). The item numbers in the URLs are even identical.

They are limiting to 1 per customer both ends though... for a business that's probably more of an issue than an end user.
Click to expand...

Thx, purchased 2 of the 3TB from NEB.
 
BigXor said:
I'm wondering if we will be able to get drives Warranted from manufacturers?
Click to expand...

I was thinking the same. I had 5 Hitachi 1TB drives to RMA, I'm glad I did it already and got em back. 2 of them ended up going into my backup rotation and the other 3 are spares. I have 6 1TB WD Blacks in my production server + 1 hot spare, so I'm good for a while and if I get failures I can put in Hitachi drives temporarily.
 
Aesma said:
Oil rises before there is any shortage, and when there are shortages they're very relative, a few percents production lacking at most.

Here, we're talking one quarter, maybe a third, maybe more, of the production lacking, it's more than significant ! And us buying drives at the individual level are not really prime customers, we'll be dead last to be considered, let alone satisfied !
Click to expand...

There must be some serious price gouging going on. Microcenter is now selling a Hitachi 2 tb hard drive (tomorrow...) for $209.99 (http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0356678). I got the drive this evening for $119.99. That is a one day increase of $90 :eek:. On the external usb drive front. I had to have a "price correction" for a Segate 1.5 tb drive (http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0375961) that was advertised for $74.99. Tomorrow it will be selling for $129.99 :eek:

The speculators are running amok!!!!!!!! :rolleyes:
 
Aesma said:
Oil rises before there is any shortage, and when there are shortages they're very relative, a few percents production lacking at most.

Here, we're talking one quarter, maybe a third, maybe more, of the production lacking, it's more than significant ! And us buying drives at the individual level are not really prime customers, we'll be dead last to be considered, let alone satisfied !
Click to expand...

Are you really comparing rising oil and hdd prices? I know there are similarities based on all commerce, but c'mon now.
 
compuguy1088 said:
There must be some serious price gouging going on. Microcenter is now selling a Hitachi 2 tb hard drive (tomorrow...) for $209.99 (http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0356678). I got the drive this evening for $119.99. That is a one day increase of $90 :eek:.
Click to expand...

They probably ran out of old stock, and they finally got the new quotes. Unfortunately, retail is now the last thing which will get the drives. First the computer manufacturers (HP, Dell, Acer, etc), then B2B distribution channels, then the big distributors (majority of their stuff will go to small and middle size companies buying from local distributors), and the remaining low stock is for general public (retail). Call yourself lucky if you will see any hard drives in stock in next month.
 
faugusztin said:
They probably ran out of old stock, and they finally got the new quotes. Unfortunately, retail is now the last thing which will get the drives. First the computer manufacturers (HP, Dell, Acer, etc), then B2B distribution channels, then the big distributors (majority of their stuff will go to small and middle size companies buying from local distributors), and the remaining low stock is for general public (retail). Call yourself lucky if you will see any hard drives in stock in next month.
Click to expand...

At the microcenter I was at, they seemed to still be decently stocked. They just had the limit of only any two hard drives per order/day, and the limit of only one type/model each (per person).
 
compuguy1088 said:
At the microcenter I was at, they seemed to still be decently stocked. They just had the limit of only any two hard drives per order/day, and the limit of only one type/model each (per person).
Click to expand...

Please not the "old stock" part. When they run out of cheap priced hard drives and have to get the higher priced ones, they cannot continue to sell them at loss => price increase, because "old stock" (=bough for cheap) was sold, and the "new stock" (=bought for higher price) means higher price for customers as well.
 
compuguy1088 said:
There must be some serious price gouging going on. Microcenter is now selling a Hitachi 2 tb hard drive (tomorrow...) for $209.99
Click to expand...
Yup. Went up even more on the Hitachi 3tb. $115 more now. I ended up buying out all 34 of their 3tb last week for my short term storage needs. Their web site still shows OOS on them. I wonder if they actually got of them in.

I guess they are more aggressively limiting the quantities now. When I got my drives, they really didn't care. The cashier as well as customer service let me buy as many as I wanted as long as each was a separate transaction. The service desk even winked and said I can put the bag in my car and come back, they'll be happy to help me with my 'new purchase'. While holding some of drives behind the counter for me. They didn't let me do multiple transactions at any one time tho so I did go through all the motion. I did ask.

My local MC was pretty well stocked as well. They had a lot of 2tb and 1tb left from all the manufacturers. I was only interested in the 3tb tho as that was the best gb/price drive at the time.
 
faugusztin said:
They probably ran out of old stock, and they finally got the new quotes. Unfortunately, retail is now the last thing which will get the drives. First the computer manufacturers (HP, Dell, Acer, etc), then B2B distribution channels, then the big distributors (majority of their stuff will go to small and middle size companies buying from local distributors), and the remaining low stock is for general public (retail). Call yourself lucky if you will see any hard drives in stock in next month.
Click to expand...

I think the computer manufacturer's are second down the line - first being aerospace and medical companies.
 
danman said:
I think the computer manufacturer's are second down the line - first being aerospace and medical companies.
Click to expand...
Perhaps not. They may be more essential but the manufacturers need to full fill their contracts. Sure all the manufacturers would have them because of how many they use. Medical and aerospace may have contracts as well, depending on the quantities. If they don't, they may be SOL like the rest of retail unless someone intervenes.
 
any idea till this is over and if prices will ever be close to what they were
 
I would like to see some statistics on the percentage of available HDD storage that is actually used by end users. Most people I know have huge HDD in their computers with more than 70% of free space. I myself had a 750GB RAID 1 that was only 35% full. I overestimated my storage consumption by a lot when I bought those drives 2 years ago. So I feel most people have no need for a 1TB drive. The users in this forum represent a small niche in the market. It seems a lot of panic and speculation.
 
xxtraloud said:
I would like to see some statistics on the percentage of available HDD storage that is actually used by end users. Most people I know have huge HDD in their computers with more than 70% of free space. I myself had a 750GB RAID 1 that was only 35% full. I overestimated my storage consumption by a lot when I bought those drives 2 years ago. So I feel most people have no need for a 1TB drive. The users in this forum represent a small niche in the market. It seems a lot of panic and speculation.
Click to expand...

Its not necessarily your current consumption that is at issue, but really the rate of growth. My HD camcorder can produce a gigabyte of data roughly every 5 minutes, and this is just for raw footage, not including edits, final renders, etc. Raw photos can expand at similar rates from large CCD SLR cameras.
 
Gabe3 said:
huh? 4 months?
Click to expand...

WDC - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111019-716577.html : "Full recovery will be a multi-quarter challenge."
Seagate - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111020-718449.html
"Given the severity of the situation and the extensive supply constraints caused by the disruption, including those described by our primary competitor, the effects on our industry are likely to be substantial and will extend over multiple quarters,"

And the previous estimates were half year just to start the production at damaged factories of WDC and the suppliers of multiple hard drive manufacturers. And considering the question were about prices being at same level as they were before the increase, you need to add at least a half year after the production recovers to reach those prices.
 
I see the effects of this being felt for about 2 years before it gets back to the levels preflood
 
faugusztin said:
WDC - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111019-716577.html : "Full recovery will be a multi-quarter challenge."
Seagate - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111020-718449.html
"Given the severity of the situation and the extensive supply constraints caused by the disruption, including those described by our primary competitor, the effects on our industry are likely to be substantial and will extend over multiple quarters,"

And the previous estimates were half year just to start the production at damaged factories of WDC and the suppliers of multiple hard drive manufacturers. And considering the question were about prices being at same level as they were before the increase, you need to add at least a half year after the production recovers to reach those prices.
Click to expand...
ok, thanks
 
New 3TB 3 Platter Seagate Drive launching for $179 list next week. Press release with pricing came out today.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/11/01/seagate-merges-barracuda-range-renounces-small-platters-for-hun/


Review/Specs http://www.storagereview.com/seagate_barracuda_3tb_review_1tb_platters_st3000dm001

Almost a 30% increase in performance over the 5 platter 3TB last-gen. Almost 200MB/sec sequential.


Seagate Streamlines Barracuda Product Family; Simplifies Selection For Consumers And Reduces Costs For Computer Makers

Barracuda® zeroes in on performance and capacity as consumption of rich content continues to explode

CUPERTINO, Calif. - November 1, 2011 - Seagate (NASDAQ:STX) is streamlining its flagship family of desktop drives under a single product that hones in on performance and big capacities to help satisfy the explosive growth in content creation and consumption by businesses and consumers worldwide. The new Barracuda® family makes it easier for consumers to find the product they need and reduces costs for Seagate's original equipment manufacturer and distribution channel customers by reducing the number of product qualifications and amount of inventory they need to manage.

Seagate 3–terabyte Barracuda hard drive featuring 1 terabyte of storage capacity per disk platter, the highest storage density available.

"A simpler desktop drive product family is exactly what Seagate customers are asking for," said Scott Horn, vice president of Marketing at Seagate. "The new Barracuda® family reflects the reality that end-users want a full range of hard drive capacities and as much performance as we can give them to help manage and store massive amounts of digital content. In addition, our OEM and channel customers want to reduce overhead costs by having fewer product lines to qualify and manage in their inventory."

Desktop PC performance is growing in importance as computer users consume and otherwise use more and more multimedia – a blend of text, audio, images, animation and video – and other rich-content files in areas as diverse as business, advertising, art, education, entertainment, engineering, medicine, mathematics and science. Higher hard drive performance often means a faster computer and quicker access to this content.

The new Barracuda hard drive – to be available first at online retailers Amazon, CDW, Newegg and TigerDirect – is designed for desktop, tower or all-in-one personal computers; workstations, home and small business servers; network-attached storage devices; direct-attached storage expansion; and home and small-business RAID solutions. Capacities of the family range from 250GB to a massive 3TB.

The simplification of the Barracuda family comes as Seagate begins volume shipments of its 1TB-per-disk Barracuda® hard drive. Seagate plans to end production of its Barracuda® Green drive in February 2012. Seagate analysis shows that its new Barracuda drives have a nearly identical power-consumption profile as energy-efficient desktop drives but deliver much higher performance. Barracuda® XT, Seagate's fastest desktop hard drive, will be folded into the new Barracuda family and re-emerge, in name, as the company's desktop solid state hybrid drive.

Technical Specifications
The new Barracuda hard drive features a SATA 6GB/second interface, 7200RPM spin speed and up to 64MB cache to deliver high performance across all capacities. Seagate's SmartAlign™ technology, a feature of Seagate's Barracuda Green drives, will continue to ship with the flagship Barracuda drives to help the hard drive industry segue from the current 512-byte sector standard for hard drives to the new 4096-byte sector size. The new 4K standard enables the use of stronger error correction algorithms to maintain data integrity at higher storage densities and capacities.

Environmental Commitment
Seagate is committed to building hard drives to the highest quality and environmental standards. More than 70 percent of materials used in its storage products are recyclable, and all of its products are halogen-free and comply with the rigorous REACH standard*. These and other initiatives at Seagate are what truly make a difference to the environment.

*REACH is the most far-reaching and comprehensive chemical-restriction law in the world. Seagate drives do not contain the harmful halogen elements chlorine and bromine. The absence of halogen exceeds the strictest legal requirements for environmental cleanliness to satisfy the higher standards of many computer makers and environmental groups.
 
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xxtraloud said:
I would like to see some statistics on the percentage of available HDD storage that is actually used by end users. Most people I know have huge HDD in their computers with more than 70% of free space. I myself had a 750GB RAID 1 that was only 35% full. I overestimated my storage consumption by a lot when I bought those drives 2 years ago. So I feel most people have no need for a 1TB drive. The users in this forum represent a small niche in the market. It seems a lot of panic and speculation.
Click to expand...

1TB of space is required for 1 year of backups for our business. We have 2 off site locations for the backups. So we need 2TB of new storage each year. I have a year's worth of spare space.

I have about 2TB of free space out of 8TB for DVDs - 500 rips more or less. Several years worth.

I have about 3TB of free space out of 8TB for recording TV shows. I delete "old" stuff when I get down to 1TB.

I have enough hard drives for my needs. When prices fall, I may change my usage.
 
I went to buy a 2TB F4: $225!! They were 80 bucks less than a month ago! Ended up getting a WD Green 1.5 for $125, bought a set months ago for $59!
 
It's funny because I got in on a few DDR3 deals expecting it to go up at some point.... maybe even when it's being phased out.... but planning on the price to be a lot higher than what it is now and needing it later... always happens to me at some point.

So I stock up nicely on memory and now it's hard drives that have sky rocketed in price.

I did manage to get two 1.5TB Seagates for $60 each before Amazon ran out so I guess I did end up getting lucky after all. I wish I had gotten a few spares before for future builds though... I never expected hard drive prices to go this way :(.
 
xxtraloud said:
I would like to see some statistics on the percentage of available HDD storage that is actually used by end users. Most people I know have huge HDD in their computers with more than 70% of free space. I myself had a 750GB RAID 1 that was only 35% full. I overestimated my storage consumption by a lot when I bought those drives 2 years ago. So I feel most people have no need for a 1TB drive. The users in this forum represent a small niche in the market. It seems a lot of panic and speculation.
Click to expand...

this is my usage in "low consumption" mode.

Screenshot-2011-11-02_00.34.06.png


Craig
 
xxtraloud said:
I would like to see some statistics on the percentage of available HDD storage that is actually used by end users. Most people I know have huge HDD in their computers with more than 70% of free space. I myself had a 750GB RAID 1 that was only 35% full. I overestimated my storage consumption by a lot when I bought those drives 2 years ago. So I feel most people have no need for a 1TB drive
Click to expand...

I've just added 12TB [formatted capacity] to my storage server about a week before the price jump.

I'm using right around 1TB a month though, so even with that in mind I'll probably still need to add some more disks by this time next year.
 
Pricing sheets for distribution level came in this morning, Expect another jump especially in the 2TB+ area (WD blacks are 260 cost now).
 
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