Bitcoin crumbles below $40,000 on China crypto warning

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They say, "whatever goes up must come down" :barefoot:

"The statement from China's industry association said all members should "resolutely refrain from conducting or participating in any business activities related to virtual currencies. A week ago, Bitcoin was trading above $50,105 after its price plunged 10% following Tesla CEO Elon Musk's reversal of his stance on the digital currency. Musk announced that Tesla, the electric car maker, would no longer accept Bitcoin as payment."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bitcoin-price-falls-on-china-crypto-warning
 
Alright bring out the pitchforks, time for me to come clean.
I don't really like Elon and never have. I like SpaceX, but that's it. SNL - Elon. Crypto - Elon. Scared to open my fridge at this point.
 
286801_111201_upload_2018-3-20_17-53-16-png.png
 
Expected responses in this thread:

1: People posting the grumpy cat good meme.
2: The "oh its crypto, the god of computing, it will come back"

Im hoping for a stable computer parts environment. Lets get back to that please.

Ninja edit - Person posting before me by a millisecond already met example 1.
 
That_Sound_Guy said:
Expected responses in this thread:

1: People posting the grumpy cat good meme.
2: The "oh its crypto, the god of computing, it will come back"

Im hoping for a stable computer parts environment. Lets get back to that please.

Ninja edit - Person posting before me by a millisecond already met example 1.
Click to expand...
I would have had it earlier, but I forgot where I saved it :cool:
 
Of course they don't like anything not under their complete control. It reeks with the stench of freedom that is perfume to everyone else. When Elon realized his Dog Coin had caught on of course he would dump the competition and drive value down. Maybe the genius whale planned that when he bought them in the first place?
 
Whenever anyone is convinced that an asset, any asset, will always increase in value, they are invariably wrong.

See the housing market ca 2006.

I'd argue this is especially true for cryptocurrencies.
 
This "crash" brought bitcoin down to 41K at the moment (it was as low as 30K) - still higher than it was at the beginning of the year. Wake me up when its below 5K - this I would consider crash given the implied volatility. Etherium is at $2.9K still higher than it was just four weeks ago. So as much as I would love to see them crush and burn this is nothing yet.
 
That_Sound_Guy said:
Im hoping for a stable computer parts environment. Lets get back to that please.
Click to expand...
Not sure what this even means or what it has to do with anything, let alone momentary BTC/USD fluctuations.

Silicon shortage is silicon shortage. Enjoy
 
That_Sound_Guy said:
Expected responses in this thread:

1: People posting the grumpy cat good meme.
2: The "oh its crypto, the god of computing, it will come back"

Im hoping for a stable computer parts environment. Lets get back to that please.

Ninja edit - Person posting before me by a millisecond already met example 1.
Click to expand...

I'd also like a clean ecological environment. By turning coal smoke into fake internet points, proof of pollution based mining is an ecological obscenity.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
Whenever anyone is convinced that an asset, any asset, will always increase in value, they are invariably wrong.

See the housing market ca 2006.

I'd argue this is especially true for cryptocurrencies.
Click to expand...
Well particularly because unlike traditional assets, it has no intrinsic value. While assets largely used as investment vehicles, like gold, have paper values vastly inflated in relation to their useful value they still have useful intrinsic value. Gold gets used for electronics manufacturing, industrial uses, jewelry, etc. Likewise while some property sits empty fundamentally real property is desirable because it is useful and people want to live there. Even stocks, which might be considered one of the more ephemeral of the traditional assets have value: They confer part ownership of a company and that company has and makes things.

Crypto has none of that. So the value is ONLY the value that speculators put in to it, it is worth something only if the next guy thinks it might be worth more. There is no "floor" price. That doesn't mean it WILL become worthless, just that it is more subject to volatility and crashes than other assets.
 
That_Sound_Guy said:
If you think Crypto has no play in the video card shortage you need to rejoin reality. Every other PC component is easily accessible except maybe the highest AMD CPU.
Click to expand...

I do not know enough to have some opinion, it does play some roles for sure, but considering you cannot buy an play station on bestbuy.com or amazon yet, one thinking the situation would be one of shortage without it right now (but that would could way less to buy from scalper without the mining) is not crazy.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
Whenever anyone is convinced that an asset, any asset, will always increase in value, they are invariably wrong.

See the housing market ca 2006.

I'd argue this is especially true for cryptocurrencies.
Click to expand...
Its funny in the car this morning... they where announcing how last month was our hottest month in housing ever where I am.... small Canadian city of 800k people. Average sale... $320k CND. To put that in perspective I'm in my 40s still... I bought my first house aprox 20 years back and paid $45 for it, same house sold a few months back for $250k. Made me regret not sucking it up and living in that little 900 sft house for just a few more years. lol

It sould seem at least in regards to housing... things may crash things may dip. But so far ya over time it all goes up and only up.

To really drive it home... My oldest moved to Vancouver quite a few years back, and is doing well. His uncle lives out their and bought his house for under 100k thirty years ago.... he could easily sell it today for around 3 perhaps even 4 mil. My oldest bought a condo with his GF last year for 800k.

Crypto of course a completely different bag of dicks. That could get sent to zero at any time if a few major Governments decide they have had enough of alt currency.
 
LukeTbk said:
I do not know enough to have some opinion, it does play some roles for sure, but considering you cannot buy an play station on bestbuy.com or amazon yet, one thinking the situation would be one of shortage without it right now (but that would could way less to buy from scalper without the mining) is not crazy.
Click to expand...

I agree Crypto isnt the only cause of shortage for sure. AI computing, work from home, Covid panic work stoppages and nanometer manufacturing changes are also heavy contributors.
 
ChadD said:
Its funny in the car this morning... they where announcing how last month was our hottest month in housing ever where I am.... small Canadian city of 800k people. Average sale... $320k CND. To put that in perspective I'm in my 40s still... I bought my first house aprox 20 years back and paid $45 for it, same house sold a few months back for $250k. Made me regret not sucking it up and living in that little 900 sft house for just a few more years. lol
Click to expand...

If that would mean buying for way more for the bigger house that would have probably balanced out, your house gaining value is nice when you move down in house not up I imagine (like post retirement when you buy smaller or in a much cheaper market).

ChadD said:
It sould seem at least in regards to housing... things may crash things may dip. But so far ya over time it all goes up and only up.
Click to expand...
In some market it did (in detroit it has yet to recover I think):

House got bigger and bigger has well, on a nation wide level, by square feet it did not move much I think
https://fee.org/media/15200/housing2.png?width=600&height=410.6024096385542

Median house in the 42 year's between 1973 and 2015 got 70% more expensive in the USA, but were 62% bigger, square feet went over all that time from 114.42 to 120
 
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That_Sound_Guy said:
I agree Crypto isnt the only cause of shortage for sure. AI computing, work from home, Covid panic work stoppages and nanometer manufacturing changes are also heavy contributors.
Click to expand...
As well as import and some export bans on many key Chinese companies. huawei kicked things off with their import ban... which had them tie up pretty much all TMSC production for 4 months. Most companies like AMD and Nvidia don't contract tons of extra production from TMSC until their sure they are going to need it. This round when they called TMSC the answer was some combo of we have no extra space to sell you... or it has a massive premium right now cause China is paying through the nose for all they can get.

Then to make the crunch worse last year the US (rightly imo) banned imports to a bunch of other players like o-film who supply(ed) touch screens and smart phone cameras to companies like Apple, Google and Samsung and pretty much everyone else as well. This caused those slave labour using jack holes to likewise buy every bit of supply they could while they could. (and has also created a black market on many of those components that now get sold and resold 3 or 4 or more times though distributors to hide that the end customers is one of the effected Chinese manufacturers).

And the last round where the US actually rightly blocked finished product from Hefei Bitland.... hasn't probably hurt supply chains. However they where responsible for a ton of laptop manufacturing for companies like Lenovo Google and HP.

Sanctions against those companies are justified. However they where implemented by super morons. I mean what did they think would happen when they ban exports to companies like huawei while they are still allowed to sell product to the majority of the world. They banned component exports to the worlds third largest smart phone manufacturer... and to make it worse they gave them months to prepare. That they would suck up the worlds chip production during that time was the only logical conclusion. Did trumps admin think they where just going to throw their hands up and say ok ok ok we'll just close the doors.

The most annoying thing about the current shortages is that people actually believe covid purchases are driving any of it. lol Sales are not up that much... in a segment such as laptops as an example sales where expected to go up 15% this year before covid... and they have only went up 25%. So sales are only really up 10% over what they projected to sell anyway. That is not the type of demand that crashes supply chains.
 
Sycraft said:
Well particularly because unlike traditional assets, it has no intrinsic value. While assets largely used as investment vehicles, like gold, have paper values vastly inflated in relation to their useful value they still have useful intrinsic value. Gold gets used for electronics manufacturing, industrial uses, jewelry, etc. Likewise while some property sits empty fundamentally real property is desirable because it is useful and people want to live there. Even stocks, which might be considered one of the more ephemeral of the traditional assets have value: They confer part ownership of a company and that company has and makes things.

Crypto has none of that. So the value is ONLY the value that speculators put in to it, it is worth something only if the next guy thinks it might be worth more. There is no "floor" price. That doesn't mean it WILL become worthless, just that it is more subject to volatility and crashes than other assets.
Click to expand...
That's like saying software has no value. It's been debunked so many times.
 
LukeTbk said:
If that would mean buying for way more for the bigger house that would have probably balanced out, your house gaining value is nice when you move down in house not up I imagine (like post retirement when you buy smaller or in a much cheaper market).


In some market it did (in detroit it has yet to recover I think):

House got bigger and bigger has well, on a nation wide level, by square feet it did not move much I think
https://fee.org/media/15200/housing2.png?width=600&height=410.6024096385542

Median house in the 42 year's between 1973 and 2015 got 70% more expensive in the USA, but were 62% bigger, square feet went over all that time from 114.42 to 120
Click to expand...

Different countries I guess. I remember when the big crash happened a lot of people from here where buying houses in places like Phoenix. It was crazy for awhile it was cheaper to buy a home in Phoenix then a cabin here in Manitoba. Our banking system protected us quite a bit from such a big crash... our bankers where not doing the same things with housing market backed investments as it would have been illegal here.

Our biggest issue here is the way we do immigration. Canada has always had a ton of immigration which has always been great for housing and the economy in general. I mean it still is good in places like where I am in Winnipeg. However about 15 years back or something like that we had a Conservative Gov who decided that outside of refugees we should only allow people to immigrate that have money. So we made having a fat bank account a requirement for immigration. What happened is 90% of those immigrants only immigrated to our 2 largest cities.... go figure Taiwanese multi millionaires only want to live in Toronto or Vancouver. Where I am in Winnipeg if we have a new family move in they are either related to people already here or refugees. In Vancouver they get almost no refugees they get their quotes filled by normal immigration. And the first thing most people with a few million dollars do when they show up in a city apparently is start buying property. lol After Prime Minister Harper made that change... the housing markets in our too major cities skyrocketed. My son is engaged to a nice girl who is the daughter of immigrants from Taiwan... if covid ever ends I guess we'll have to fly their for the wedding but her father has already told us we are free to use one of his homes while where there. lmao At the moment her father owns at least 2 apartment buildings in Vancouver and one has been basically empty for around a year cause he's not sure what he wants to do with it just yet.

Its a mess... not that I'm an expert on American politics but I remember a few years ago when Trump was talking about making the same type of change. I just shook my head... thinking that is NOT going to go the way you think it will. You want your immigrants creating a market for low cost housing not buying all of it to perhaps rent or perhaps to knock down and put up some luxury stuff for other new arrivals. lol
 
While they wont admit it publicly I'm sure China sees cryptocurrency as a challenge to their own currency.
 
insectomorph said:
https://hbr.org/2021/05/how-much-energy-does-bitcoin-actually-consume
Click to expand...
A lot of deflection in that article. Crypto uses half the power of the banking system at just 1% the volume of transactions. Imagine if all money was replaced with crypto and you're now doing 100 times the amount of transactions currently. That scales up to over 11 petawatt hours per year compared to the banking system's 240 terawatt hours per year, or 50 times the energy consumption to meet the same demand.
 
ChadD said:
The most annoying thing about the current shortages is that people actually believe covid purchases are driving any of it. lol Sales are not up that much... in a segment such as laptops as an example sales where expected to go up 15% this year before covid... and they have only went up 25%. So sales are only really up 10% over what they projected to sell anyway. That is not the type of demand that crashes supply chains.
Click to expand...

HIgher demand do seem to be driving it (the rise is not that big but desktop sales was expected to continue to drop by what a good 10-11% so even a modest jump in sales can be a big change versus expectation), but also supply not being able to rise at level that they normally would have (because with that demand I imagine that in normal time we would have got 2017 early 2018 supply from both company at a minimum if not more):

j9TSPpVjx5yGjx8AMLNjk4-970-80.png


NVidia outsold 2019 Q2-Q3-Q4 some by almost 50%, so if the demand would have stayed at 2019 level we would have not encountered issues I would guess.
 
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Armenius said:
A lot of deflection in that article. Crypto uses half the power of the banking system at just 1% the volume of transactions. Imagine if all money was replaced with crypto and you're now doing 100 times the amount of transactions currently. That scales up to over 11 petawatt hours per year compared to the banking system's 240 terawatt hours per year, or 50 times the energy consumption to meet the same demand.
Click to expand...

Crypto is far to unstable to ever be a true currency, let alone the pipe dream that somehow countries will just capitulate their fiscal controls (and power) and just hand over currency control to an unregulated, international market is and always has been laughable.

I appreciate the hustle that is crypto, make a few bucks here and there, but it isn't going to replace FIAT or banks. China is moving to lock it down, the US and western world probably won't make the same move, instead we will tax it progressively harder, while also allowing hedge funds and everyone else to get in and abuse/manipulate it furthering instability and rendering it a minor and unreliable player in currency worlds. That is just the levers being used today, more will be pulled before the end.

There is no way its replacing the banking system without violence being used to unseat the existing power structure, and that power structure currently has a monopoly on violence.
 
ChadD said:
Different countries I guess. I remember when the big crash happened a lot of people from here where buying houses in places like Phoenix. It was crazy for awhile it was cheaper to buy a home in Phoenix then a cabin here in Manitoba. Our banking system protected us quite a bit from such a big crash... our bankers where not doing the same things with housing market backed investments as it would have been illegal here.
Click to expand...
It was not talked as much, but Canada Federal government saving the housing-banking market during 2008 was bigger by capita than the america one, 69 billions, the federal government bought from the bank most of the most risky mortage, and they ended up making a ton of money from them.

https://web.archive.org/web/2010041...tiatives/eng/index.asp?mode=3&initiativeID=39

New in Canada's Economic Action Plan​

Through Canada's Economic Action Plan, the federal government aims to purchase up to $125 billion of insured mortgage pools. This will provide long-term stable funding to lenders and help them continue lending to Canadian consumers and businesses.

Explained here:
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/the-real-canadian-bank-bailout/

Our Banker were doing the same has in the US I think (if we are talking about risky loan with very low to no down payment, etc...):
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/canadas-sub-prime-mortgage-time-bomb

But for a shorter amount of time, here the giant saving plan barely made the news versus the US and because the crisis never got bad, the federal government got a giant amount of high interest mortgage at a really good price, when you read the federal budget it is one of the big lines of revenues now.
 
Armenius said:
A lot of deflection in that article. Crypto uses half the power of the banking system at just 1% the volume of transactions. Imagine if all money was replaced with crypto and you're now doing 100 times the amount of transactions currently. That scales up to over 11 petawatt hours per year compared to the banking system's 240 terawatt hours per year, or 50 times the energy consumption to meet the same demand.
Click to expand...
The energy comes from solving the math, not processing transactions. Transactions are negligible.
 
insectomorph said:
The energy comes from solving the math, not processing transactions. Transactions are negligible.
Click to expand...
Everywhere you search uses the word "transaction" when talking about energy consumption, not mining. If they mean that is how much energy it takes to mine then they need to clarify their language.
 
That_Sound_Guy said:
If you think Crypto has no play in the video card shortage you need to rejoin reality. Every other PC component is easily accessible except maybe the highest AMD CPU.
Click to expand...
Nowhere did I say it has no play. But the GPU shortage - and "scalper prices" already existed for months before crypto began surging earlier in the year.

The point was only that GPU prices aren't singularly about whatever BTC happens to be trading at against USD on any particular day. The "cant wait for cheap GPU flood" crowd is in for more than a substantial wait because global compute demand was already at ATH.

Search the forum and there are at least a hundred different "Bitcoin CRASHED today, but this time is definitely the end!" threads stretching back to 2012. It's always the same routine, circular arguments and weird misplaced anger.
 
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Armenius said:
Everywhere you search uses the word "transaction" when talking about energy consumption, not mining. If they mean that is how much energy it takes to mine then they need to clarify their language.
Click to expand...

Also most transaction systems crashed this morning due to trade stress. This is not the solution people are hoping for, and at best it will just be a series of new crypto currencies setup, maintained, and controlled by each individual state. USCypto, ChinaTo, EuroCypt, etc.
 
pendragon1 said:
well that settles it, debooonked!!

crypto is just generated out of thin air, wheres the value?
Click to expand...

Not sure if serious...
Software is also generated out of thin air. Its as physical as crypto is...
Software has value because people place value on it by wanting it and the creators wanting money for their work.
Same with crypto, people wanting it causes it to have value because there's a "limited" amount of it...

Gold for example, yes its physical, but people want it because it looks nice and there's not very much of it, so it becomes valuable, increasing the people that want it, increasing the value further...
 
Rockenrooster said:
Not sure if serious...
Software is also generated out of thin air.
Software has value because people place value on it by wanting it.
Same with crypto, people wanting it causes it to have value because there's a "limited" amount of it...
Click to expand...

No, software has value because software can do something, not because people place value on it. CAD can create CAD diagrams, Adobe allows for all sorts of creative content and marketing work, games provide an experience. Also all of those things value slowly reaches zero over time as new software replaces it.

Crypto has value solely because people decide it does, if/when people decide it doesn't it dies.
 
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