AlphaAtlas
[H]ard|Gawd
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2018
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Apple's missed revenue targets have sent investors scrambling for explanations, and a few pointed fingers at Apple's 2017/2018 CPU throttling scandal. Apple started a relatively affordable program to replace batteries in older iPhones for $29, and some analysts thought the program could put a dent in Apple's profits. That claim hinges on just how many batteries Apple replaced, and the Daring Fireball blog claims to have a concrete number. Citing an Apple executive meeting on January 3rd, the report claims that Apple replaced about 11 million iPhone batteries, which is far above previous estimates. Thanks to VentureBeat for spotting the post.
I’m pretty sure Gassee's back-of-the-envelope estimate of the number of batteries replaced was way too low. During Apple's all-hands meeting January 3, Tim Cook said Apple replaced 11 million batteries under the $29 replacement program, and they'd have only anticipated about 1-2 million battery replacements normally. (The fact that Cook held this all-hands meeting was reported by Mark Gurman at Bloomberg, but the contents of the meeting haven't leaked. Well, except for this nugget I’m sharing here.) But Gassee's second point still stands: the battery replacement program ran all year long, so even if it was more popular than Apple originally expected, why wasn't it accounted for in guidance issued on November 1 - 10 months after the program started? My guess: the effect of the battery replacement program on new iPhone sales wasn’t apparent until after the iPhone XR and XS models were available. A few million extra iPhone users happy with the performance of their old iPhones with new batteries - who would have otherwise upgraded to a new iPhone this year - put a ding in the bottom line.
I’m pretty sure Gassee's back-of-the-envelope estimate of the number of batteries replaced was way too low. During Apple's all-hands meeting January 3, Tim Cook said Apple replaced 11 million batteries under the $29 replacement program, and they'd have only anticipated about 1-2 million battery replacements normally. (The fact that Cook held this all-hands meeting was reported by Mark Gurman at Bloomberg, but the contents of the meeting haven't leaked. Well, except for this nugget I’m sharing here.) But Gassee's second point still stands: the battery replacement program ran all year long, so even if it was more popular than Apple originally expected, why wasn't it accounted for in guidance issued on November 1 - 10 months after the program started? My guess: the effect of the battery replacement program on new iPhone sales wasn’t apparent until after the iPhone XR and XS models were available. A few million extra iPhone users happy with the performance of their old iPhones with new batteries - who would have otherwise upgraded to a new iPhone this year - put a ding in the bottom line.