AMD Zen Performance Preview

Yes you can lol. https://www.thebalance.com/year-over-year-yoy-growth-calculation-definition-3305970

Year to year growth compares the same time period of one year to the next. You can compare Q3 and Q4 of one year to the next, that's called year to year growth.


You don't attribute the entire growth to a product that wasn't there. No C- level person would ever do that. AMD didn't even do that, they just stated sales were strong and we expect to gain marketshare lol. Nothing like what you are saying.

If you don't understand if they did that in financial call they can get called on it? Not only that, if investors get hurt by something like that they can sue?
 
You don't attribute the entire growth to a product that wasn't there.

If you don't understand if they did that in financial call they can get called on it? Not only that, if investors get hurt by something like that they can sue?
If I am comparing Q3 2015 to Q3 2016, year to year growth, the fact that Polaris wasn't available in 2015 only demonstrates my point that Polaris contributed to the market share rise. Since Q3 2016 has AMD having a much larger share than they did in Q3 2015.

Unless you're seriously arguing AMD would sell more GPUs in Q3 2016 even if Polaris wasn't released, which is just ridiculous. lol.
 
If I am comparing Q3 2015 to Q3 2016, year to year growth, the fact that Polaris wasn't available in 2015 only demonstrates my point that Polaris contributed to the market share rise. Since Q3 2016 has AMD having a much larger share than they did in Q3 2015.

Year to Year growth was never attributed to Polaris, even AMD wasn't stupid enough to state that (and we have seen how stupid they behave mixing and matching JPR numbers and Mercury numbers in vaguers so noone can say anything) in their financial calls, any of them! Yet you sit here, and try to tell me that its a major part, after I break it down to sequential growth where Polaris did jake for them!
 
Since Q3 2016 has AMD having a much larger share than they did in Q3 2015.
Yet smaller than in Q2 2016, when Polaris was not here. Do you get it?
I think Polaris played a part in increased year to year market share growth by AMD. I highly doubt they would be above 20% if Polaris wasn't released.
https://www.jonpeddie.com/press-rel...arket-decreased-while-amd-gained-market-share

They were above 20% before Polaris release, come on now.
 
If I am comparing Q3 2015 to Q3 2016, year to year growth, the fact that Polaris wasn't available in 2015 only demonstrates my point that Polaris contributed to the market share rise. Since Q3 2016 has AMD having a much larger share than they did in Q3 2015.

Unless you're seriously arguing AMD would sell more GPUs in Q3 2016 even if Polaris wasn't released, which is just ridiculous. lol.


I'm not saying that either, man, don't try to make shit up about what I might be thinking cause I don't think across your lines, cause I would make a loss every time if I thought like you and invested in the stock market lol.
 
Year to Year growth was never attributed to Polaris, even AMD wasn't stupid enough to state that (and we have seen how stupid they behave mixing and matching JPR numbers and Mercury numbers in vaguers so noone can say anything) in their financial calls, any of them! Yet you sit here, and try to tell me that its a major part, after I break it down to sequential growth where Polaris did jake for them!
They aren't registering a decrease that's for sure. And the sales have gone up. So it must be growth:

Fu5SIXw.png

From AMD's Q3 2016 report.
 
Yet smaller than in Q2 2016, when Polaris was not here. Do you get it?

https://www.jonpeddie.com/press-rel...arket-decreased-while-amd-gained-market-share

They were above 20% before Polaris release, come on now.
Sequentially they were, but GPU market as a whole grew over 20% since Q2.. So it's relative in a grand scheme of things. It's important to look at year-to-year particularly because Q3 and Q4 include back to school and xmas sales. Which is what year to year growth shows. Polaris grew AMD's marketshare year to year.
 
They aren't registering a decrease that's for sure. And the sales have gone up. So it must be growth:

Fu5SIXw.png

From AMD's Q3 2016 report.

I already told you volume sales went up, but marketshare went down!

I stated that right off the bat!
This is from the JPR Q3 report.

Now how does that make it AMD's Polaris gained marketshare when nV's shipments gains were higher then AMD's shipments gains more than doubled?

how can you even correlate that with Polaris making up ground? That is Polaris losing ground!

And this is what I stated, AMD's volume shipments went up, but nV's did too at a higher rate though!

This isn't rocket science, I stated everything right in the beginning. Volume sales went up, means gross profits will increase, but that doesn't mean they gained marketshare, because nV sold more then the % difference they had with AMD and the increase of volume sales AMD had too.
 
Marketshare went up year to year. Thanks to Polaris. Fact.


Yeah BS. And I will keep responding with this every time you post from now on. And link to JPR numbers Q2 to Q3.

Why do you think AMD didn't talk about marketshare in Q3 financial call? Woops, yeah they predicted they will increase in Q3 but it didn't happen, and they didn't want to talk about it so they didn't lol.
 
Yeah BS. And I will keep responding with this every time you post from now on. And link to JPR numbers Q2 to Q3.
Act silly all you want. But I am just telling you facts. Polaris is going to sell more GPUs than Tonga did in its lifetime as well.
 
Act silly all you want. But I am just telling you facts. Polaris is going to sell more GPUs than Tonga did in its lifetime as well.


That I will agree with, that is a different statement though! See the difference? If you can't no one can help you. And that wasn't what we were talking about before.

If you stated this in your statement to Shintai, I would have agreed with you. But you did not, you stated you didn't agree with his stated of Polaris not making any ground which HE WAS CORRECT.
 
That I will agree with, that is a different statement though! See the difference? If you can't no one can help you. And that wasn't what we were talking about before.

If you stated this in your statement to Shintai, I would have agreed with you. But you did not, you stated you didn't agree with his stated of Polaris not making any ground which HE WAS CORRECT.
My initial statement was correct too. Polaris grew AMD GPU marketshare (year to year). Which has more meaning since in case of Q3 and Q4 means they will sell more Polaris than Tonga.
 
My initial statement was correct too. Polaris grew AMD GPU marketshare (year to year). Which has more meaning since in case of Q3 and Q4 means they will sell more Polaris than Tonga.


It didn't it wasn't Polaris, it was other cards, Polaris didn't do that, it grew volume sales but dropped marketshare. And it was all covered up because of seasonal weakness from Q2 from nV, that is reality.
 
Sequentially perhaps, but not year to year.


Year to year too, the moment you want to talk about a specific card or gen you can no longer hold on to year to year specially since the card wasn't there till the last quarter in your year to year. Your statement is false.

Can I say Volta is going to affect 1 year from this Q if it comes out in q3 of 2017?

Should I say it right now? Its foolish and not only that its damn misleading.
 
Year to year too, the moment you want to talk about a specific card you can no longer hold on to year to year specially since the card wasn't there till the last quarter in your year to year. Your statement is false.
I don't follow this argument. Since Polaris wasn't available in Q2 2016 just like it wasn't available in Q3 2015. So the same logic would then apply to your side of the argument as well, no?
 
I don't follow this argument. Since Polaris wasn't available in Q2 2016 just like it wasn't available in Q3 2015. So the same logic would then apply to your side of the argument as well, no?



Can I say Volta is going to affect 1 year from this Q if it comes out in q3 of 2017?

Should I say it right now? Its foolish and not only that its damn misleading.

Is this logical?

Now can I say in Q4 of 2017 nV marketshare since now has gone up to 90% because of Volta and nV gained 20% marketshare from Q3 2016 from Volta? (hypothetical numbers and hypothetical scenario)

Its just ridiculous.

What I'm saying is, Q3 2016 markeshare drop from AMD in discrete graphics show that even though they had volume growth they were outsold by nV above and beyond their growth added to the volume they already had. So Polaris had no affect on marketshare as of yet but bottom line improved because of the increase of volume sales which could be season changes as q3 is the strongest quarter for all IHV's in the graphics card market.
 
Can I say Volta is going to affect 1 year from this Q if it comes out in q3 of 2017?

Should I say it right now? Its foolish and not only that its damn misleading.

Is this logical?

Now can I say in Q4 of 2017 nV marketshare since now has gone up to 90% because of Volta and nV gained 20% marketshare from Q3 2016 from Volta?

Its just ridiculous.

What I'm saying is, Q3 2016 markeshare drop from AMD in discrete graphics show that even though they had volume growth they were outsold by nV above and beyond their growth added to the volume they already had. So Polaris had no affect on marketshare as of yet.
Nvidia dropped all their Pascal GPUs in Q3 (most when not counting 1080ti and Titan P perhaps, but those don't count when it comes to marketshare) .. of course AMD marketshare might register a dip due to Nvidia loyals upgrade cycles. This is to be expected. The point is Polaris did really well. And in fact registered a year to year marketshare growth. Year to year marketshare trends are really important, especially when talking about Q3 and Q4, since they are big quarters in terms of product sales.

That's why when we compare AMD's GPU competitiveness right now, to the same time last year, Polaris has AMD in much better shape. Able to maintain bigger market share, despite sequential swings and due to the overall market growth much bigger sales.

You can argue semantics until the cows come home, but those are the facts on the ground.
 
this is not sematics its very clear what happened, Year to Year Growth is only one metric quarter to quarter growth is only one metric, you can't get a clear picture of specific graphics cards in year to year growth when they aren't selling for most of the year! Not only that they were only selling for 1 Q of the range you are talking about, so you can get an understanding of marketshare impact of that one Q.

And you are talking about Polaris, that was the statement that you responded to so you can't say year to year growth was attributed to Polaris. If you stated Polaris is selling more than previous gen cards in its bracket yes, that would be true, but you did not state that till recently, two posts ago.

It is simple, its like Adorned TV and his article about mindshare was the only reason nV over took AMD he did the same thing you did, he attributed the wrong quarters to financial Q's because he didn't look at the specifics, going general doesn't do anything for anyone when you need to be looking at the micro and not the macro.
 
this is not sematics its very clear what happened, Year to Year Growth is only one metric quarter to quarter growth is only one metric, you can't get a clear picture of specific graphics cards in year to year growth when they aren't selling for most of the year! Not only that they were only selling for 1 Q of the range you are talking about, so you can get an understanding of marketshare impact of that one Q.

And you are talking about Polaris, that was the statement that you responded to so you can't say year to year growth was attributed to Polaris. If you stated Polaris is selling more than previous gen cards in its bracket yes, that would be true, but you did not state that till recently, two posts ago.

It is simple, its like Adorned TV and his article about mindshare was the only reason nV over took AMD he did the same thing you did, he attributed the wrong quarters to financial Q's because he didn't look at the specifics, going general doesn't do anything for anyone when you need to be looking at the micro and not the macro.
But Polaris IS the reason why year to year marketshare in Q3 is up lol. Unless you're arguing that in Q3 AMD sold more r9 380s then they sold rx480s.
AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, (i.e., APUs), for desktops decreased
-10% from the previous quarter. AMD's shipments were up 19.1% in notebooks. Desktop discrete GPUs increased 34.7% from last quarter, and notebook discrete shipments increased 23.0%. AMD’s total PC graphics shipments increased 15.4% from the previous quarter.
Notebook decrete shipments 23% and 34.7% desktop GPUs is all due to Polaris.

Yes AMD did register a sequential markeshare increase prior two quarters, but the reason they held it and the reason why their year to year marketshare is up is Polaris.

But let's look at the sequential marketshare since everyone seems to be so hung up on it. In Q3 AMD lost 0.6%.. At the time Pascal came out guns bazing, AMD lost a whopping 0.6% sequential marketshare.

Despite the fact that they increased shipments by 34.7% in desktop and 15.4% in mobile.

So which figure is more important, the fact that they lost 0.6% sequential marketshare or the fact that they've gained 1.5% year to year marketshare? Especially considering that sequentially and year to year they increased shipments:

http://i.imgur.com/yqNY0Fg.png

The biggest loser there is Intel.
 
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But Polaris IS the reason why year to year marketshare in Q3 is up lol. Unless you're arguing that in Q3 AMD sold more r9 380s then they sold rx480s.

Notebook decrete shipments 23% and 34.7% desktop GPUs is all due to Polaris.

Yes AMD did register a sequential markeshare increase prior two quarters, but the reason they held it and the reason why their year to year marketshare is up is Polaris.

Q3 NO MARKETSHARE WAS NOT UP it was DOWN and take notebooks out of it cause notebook Polaris wasn't out till end of Q3 (Apple) that wouldn't have shown up in Q3 numbers, use the right terms please, volume was up, volume was up. And I was trying to state this a page and half ago of posts man.

And those aren't the %'s either those are the % increases, two different things, one is a comparison of % change ok?
 
Q3 NO MARKETSHARE WAS NOT UP it was DOWN and take notebooks out of it cause notebook Polaris wasn't out till end of Q3 (Apple) that wouldn't have shown up in Q3 numbers, use the right terms please, volume was up, volume was up.
Q3 was up year to year.. lol

by 1.5% in the overal GPU market, which is huge:

yqNY0Fg.png
 
Q3 was up year to year.. lol

by 1.5% in the overal GPU market, which is huge:

yqNY0Fg.png

Dude sorry man, I'm done talking with you,

you just don't know WTF you are talking about and you are just keep posting crap that you don't know anything about. For what ever reason.

To the MODS this is the problem with this forum, please follow the line of thought in this thread, to see how people respond to well thought out posts with illogical understanding,
 
Dude sorry man, I'm done talking with you,

you just don't know WTF you are talking about and you are just keep posting crap that you don't know anything about. For what ever reason.

To the MODS this is the problem with this forum, please follow the line of thought in this thread, to see how people respond to well thought out posts with illogical understanding,
Well you don't have to believe me, look at the source lol. The same source you're using. Apparently I can read it properly.
 
Apparently I can read it properly.
That's the last thing you are doing, come on now.
Notebook decrete shipments 23% and 34.7% desktop GPUs is all due to Polaris.
Notebook shipments are Polaris? Sorry, but that's wishful thinking.

Anyways, the point here was that Shintai is right in his statements, for they were factual: Polaris did not grow market share and Polaris was priced in accordance to competition's performance. We'll see what Ryzen shall do.
 
shit can't even read a table forget having a conversation with him.

You are mixing two different aspects of the market together which have to be taken apart and looked at separately. Both parts separately you see the same trend occurring for each individual IHV, but place them together you get a spike in marketshare uptake by AMD.

This is exactly why I stated in this very thread I can't see AMD's numbers like they stated in their conference call unless I mixed and matched JPR with Mercury.

This is an anomalous data point when you place them together because you can't see what really happened. Now lets say since Q3 is a strong Q, nV regains its momentum (this is what most likely will happen) and goes above the lost shipments it had of the 3 million and AMD sells just a bit more because of Polaris. At the end AMD ends up loosing marketshare from this quarter.

How many people do you think will think Pascal "out shipped" Polaris? The reality might be Polaris did just as well as Pascal in total volume growth though.

this guy is doing the opposite to what I stated before on B3D but across the same lines of thinking, because people just can't read things right lol

Pascal did out ship Polaris by a factor of more than the volume sales growth of Polaris.
 
That's the last thing you are doing, come on now.

Notebook shipments are Polaris? Sorry, but that's wishful thinking.

Anyways, the point here was that Shintai is right in his statements, for they were factual: Polaris did not grow market share and Polaris was priced in accordance to competition's performance. We'll see what Ryzen shall do.
What are they if not Polaris? It's certainly not Tonga.
 
That's the last thing you are doing, come on now.

Notebook shipments are Polaris? Sorry, but that's wishful thinking.

Anyways, the point here was that Shintai is right in his statements, for they were factual: Polaris did not grow market share and Polaris was priced in accordance to competition's performance. We'll see what Ryzen shall do.

Yep notebooks were left over stock of mid to low end r3xx ....... Q4 will show us Polaris notebook in Apple, don't see any other OEM wins with Polaris, looks to be Dell dropped them cause it was announced to have 470's in their alienware laptops a Q ago but nothing yet.

just letting go of left over stock, AMD's inventory was like in the 200+ day range which normally should have been around 70 day range.

Ryzen should be fine if it holds up to what we have seen so far, a little gain on the desktop side a big gain in mobile (when they come out but I don't think that will happen till Q2 next year) and increased margins from what they have now should get them into the black, not sure about Q4 but Q1 they should be in the black for sure.

Forgot Dell/Alienware has dropped single rx480 in their systems now too, the are only obtainable with Xfire or Tri fire so yeah I can see a lot of sales out of that for those cards.
 
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Yep notebooks were left over stock of mid to low end r3xx ....... Q4 will show us Polaris notebook in Apple, don't see any other OEM wins with Polaris, looks to be Dell dropped them cause it was announced to have 470's in their alienware laptops a Q ago but nothing yet.

just letting go of left over stock, AMD's inventory was like in the 200+ day range which normally should have been around 70 day range.

Ryzen should be fine if it holds up to what we have seen so far, a little gain on the desktop side a big gain in mobile (when they come out but I don't think that will happen till Q2 next year) and increased margins from what they have now should get them into the black, not sure about Q4 but Q1 they should be in the black for sure.
Sorry dude you don't register a market share gain with leftover parts. That's all Polaris.
 
I thought I was in the AMD Financial Report thread. How about that marketsh-err-Zen peformance? "I'll tell ya what, AMD is gonna make IPC great again. It's gonna be amazing." Thanks for the laughs, guys. Keep it up, but don't poop it all out at once. We have a month or two at least, so try to slowly swirl it out. Merry Christmas.
king-of-the-hill_s01_02.jpg
 
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Sorry dude you don't register a market share gain with leftover parts. That's all Polaris.

word of advice look up how Mercury and JPR gets their numbers, its a bit hard to find but if you know how to use google you can find it, and yeah the gens of card shipped doesn't matter if they ship in a certain quarter they are logged. If you look back in my posts close to 8 months back..... I even talked about how those numbers are broken down too. I can tell right now, you will not know how to read those numbers because they don't track with the brackets of different graphics cards that IHV's use lol. So you need to understand some other things before you read those.
 
I thought I was in the AMD Financial Report thread. How about that marketsh-err-Zen peformance? "I'll tell ya what, AMD is gonna make IPC great again. It's gonna be amazing." Thanks for the laughs, guys. Keep it up, but don't poop it all out at once. We have a month or two at least, so try to slowly swirl it out. Merry Christmas.
iu

Marry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
 
What are they if not Polaris? It's certainly not Tonga.
Tonga? Try lower. Like Topaz and Oland low. These are the majority of AMD's GPU AIBs shipped in laptops this year. I would know, it was borderline impossible to get a laptop without this crap this year.
We have a month or two at least, so try to slowly swirl it out. Merry Christmas.
Merry Xmas, but AMD takes way too much time at this point, it starts to get boring. I mean, come on, we have had Blender demo in what, August? And it's year over already!
 
Merry Xmas, but AMD takes way too much time at this point, it starts to get boring. I mean, come on, we have had Blender demo in what, August? And it's year over already!


Well I can see why they showed it off, cause it really did help their stock price and the turn around to that is they were able to drop some debt which helped drop interest payments.
 
When you have 90% of the market share entering the price war affects the market leader the most.

How much do you think Ryzen would sell if it had the same price as the competing 6900K? Not very much, there is literally no reason to switch to AMD if Intel offers same perf/watt. This means AMD has to price their products lower.

Chasing AMD to the bottom would hurt Intel more than letting AMD take its marketshare back.

Same reason why Nvidia doesn't lower 1060 6gb price to under $200. They totally could (it's cheaper to manufacture than the rx480), but it makes them less money if they do that, because 1060gb already outsells rx480 2:1.

Similarly Intel has the mindshare. They have to be more careful not to canibalize their own margin by entering the price war with AMD. AMD has no marketshare, they got nothing to lose. Only way for them with Ryzen is up.

And that's why it will never happen. Neither Intel nor AMD can afford the price war. But Intel stands to lose more money (potential revenues) than AMD from a price war, because they have the established leadership position and marketshare.

Incorrect. Price war affects where they are competitive. The performance metrics leader have an advantage.

You already give an example where Ryzen isn't competitive. Then by nature it will be sold at a lower price.

A price war would put AMD out of PC and possible business for good.

I think you have some kind of illusion of the performance metrics of the RX480. Its not as good as you seem to think. The products are priced where they are for a reason. And its not because people avoid buying AMD. Its simply a poor excuse.
 
I explained why the Ryzen part costs less than $40 to manufacture (reality is more like $20). AMD has plenty of wiggle room.

If intel decided to sell Core i7 and other CPUs at $40 a piece, to squeeze AMD out of the market, they would lose in excess of $30B+. If they did nothing they might lose $4-5B, due to AMD taking some marketshare back. There is no way Intel wants to lose $30B. Simple as that. Heads would roll if that happened.

This is how duopolies co-exist. Coke and Pepsi. AMD and Nvidia.

Wrong and wrong. Also you should lookup how much AMD pays Glofo. Your math is completely wrong. Not to mention all the other factors you forget. I assume all the AMD people will work pro bono too?

AMD pays Glofo about a billion, they spend about a billion in R&D and their revenue is about 4 billion. yet they dont earn any money. In your dream land they should be able to make billions!

And Intel can ALWAYS sell cheaper than AMD. And being an IDM is why.
 
I took my screenshot a few weeks ago as anecdotal evidence.

You mean this JPR research?

AIEJZMH.jpg


Where AMD is up to 30% from last years 18%?

As long as Q4 results are above 18% I am right. And I am confident they will be.

Yet Polaris isnt really part of that. Product mix and Nvidia is why. You should read the entire report instead of making conclusions, specially to a single product. AMD Didn't increase volume. Nvidia sold less due to discontinuing products too early.

Polaris vs Pascal would put AMD at 13-15% share.
 
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