AMD Confirms Zen Launch

luminousone said:
Makes we wonder how close the x86 cpu market is to the saturation point, I get the impression that Intel has regulated this to an extent, but I also get the impression that their fab capacity has generally been aimed at being as close as possible to this point. I wonder what scale of sales AMD would have to pull off to not just fill open sales volume available to a competitor for the mere quality of being a competitor, but to displaces sales within the market. If Intels fab capacity is so closely matched to just under the market saturation point how many chips does AMD have to sell to force Intel to idle capacity, or be left with unsold stock.
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Intel has been pimping their fabs for a good while now ... Even offering ARM to use it.
 
They are but I don't think they are letting outsiders use the most advanced Fab's...... They are keeping them for themselves.

So the changes they did with their 14nm fins to give the boosts to Kaby Lake's clocks and keeping power consumption at the same, other companies won't get that they will get the older 14nm process which is similar to what GF14nm is, and even that might not be as close to Intel's older 14nm's but again comparing nodes across different fabs is just not really possible.
 
luminousone said:
Makes we wonder how close the x86 cpu market is to the saturation point, I get the impression that Intel has regulated this to an extent, but I also get the impression that their fab capacity has generally been aimed at being as close as possible to this point. I wonder what scale of sales AMD would have to pull off to not just fill open sales volume available to a competitor for the mere quality of being a competitor, but to displaces sales within the market. If Intels fab capacity is so closely matched to just under the market saturation point how many chips does AMD have to sell to force Intel to idle capacity, or be left with unsold stock.
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Intel is masters of logistics. So even if Zen is a home run, you are not going to see the big change as such. Also Intel got a custom foundry with quite a few customers now. Apple is also joining them from the looks of it. Panasonic and Spreadtrum are long term partners, Achronix, Tabula, Netronome, Microsemi, LG joining, military contracts, full ARM certification. And I'm sure I missed a few.

The question is really, how much x86 CPUs of a certain IC design do you need to sell and at what volume/profit to pay the ROI. Same applies for GPUs. And I think you can find some there are running at a direct loss currently. Fiji and Polaris 11 comes to mind. Every time there is a node jump, the price goes up 2x on the IC design.
 
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Shintai said:
Lets look at the facts for a bit.

People want lower power, smaller devices. Companies want lower power etc to save TCO. The only crowd asking for more performance with no regard to power consumption is a sub 1% crowd.

People are moving away fast from desktop class CPUs. More and more so called desktop class products now contain mobile CPUs because this is what consumers want.

A product like HEDT chip wouldn't even be possible to sustain itself if it wasn't for the server line. There is nothing preventing you from buying "moar cores" if you want. But the truth is people dont want to and that's why it cant sustain itself despite what your personal demand may be. What you want is not what the 99% want. AMD wouldn't even make Zen with 8 cores if it wasn't because of the server segment. All you see would be 2 and 4 core APUs instead.

And please drop the competition BS. It serves no purpose because if innovation wasn't there, people wouldn't upgrade. AMD and Intel isn't selling tap water. The competition is previous products and always was.
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Wrong all around. The general public doesn't really know what they are buying. Most do not know the wattage of any appliance in their home including their TV which likely is far more efficient than their old one. Look at the PCs and even the laptops bestbuy sales. A huge percentage of it is crap and greatly overpriced, if these consumers were as smart as you wish they were to make your argument even slightly coherent and valid then BestBuy would sale nothing. And when you look at companies a great deal are not concerned with power as a top priority. Sure it is a consideration and likely only used for a virtual tie. Most get what has the best price and only concern themselves with power after the fact.
 
JustReason said:
Wrong all around. The general public doesn't really know what they are buying. Most do not know the wattage of any appliance in their home including their TV which likely is far more efficient than their old one. Look at the PCs and even the laptops bestbuy sales. A huge percentage of it is crap and greatly overpriced, if these consumers were as smart as you wish they were to make your argument even slightly coherent and valid then BestBuy would sale nothing. And when you look at companies a great deal are not concerned with power as a top priority. Sure it is a consideration and likely only used for a virtual tie. Most get what has the best price and only concern themselves with power after the fact.
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You're right about the average person being a tech idiot, but you are wrong about people caring about efficiency or knowing how efficient their products are. Energy ratings are used to advertise products and battery-life is the #2 or even #1 desired attribute of new mobile technology. Things being smaller, creating less noise and generating less heat are ALL things 'average Joe' desires and are ALL things major companies advertise and compete with each-other on.
 
JustReason said:
Wrong all around. The general public doesn't really know what they are buying. Most do not know the wattage of any appliance in their home including their TV which likely is far more efficient than their old one. Look at the PCs and even the laptops bestbuy sales. A huge percentage of it is crap and greatly overpriced, if these consumers were as smart as you wish they were to make your argument even slightly coherent and valid then BestBuy would sale nothing. And when you look at companies a great deal are not concerned with power as a top priority. Sure it is a consideration and likely only used for a virtual tie. Most get what has the best price and only concern themselves with power after the fact.
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If that was the case, people wouldn't change to thinner, smaller computes all the time. Yet they do.

Same goes for the sale of new appliances for example. Energy efficiency is a top seller. Just ask Siemens, Bosch, AEG, Samsung etc.
 
Shintai said:
If that was the case, people wouldn't change to thinner, smaller computes all the time. Yet they do.

Same goes for the sale of new appliances for example. Energy efficiency is a top seller. Just ask Siemens, Bosch, AEG, Samsung etc.
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That would make sense for devices that are on 24h a day like a fridge or freezer but for general appliances around the house no one cares your vacuum can be 1500 Watt and if it does the job well people not turning around and buy that ultra green 800 Watt because there not hoovering all the day all the time.

Leading in sales are usually design or colour or price , that is the only reason people can justify buying "Apple computer" .

For datacenters yes, common household use of a computer not very likely.
 
Pieter3dnow said:
That would make sense for devices that are on 24h a day like a fridge or freezer but for general appliances around the house no one cares your vacuum can be 1500 Watt and if it does the job well people not turning around and buy that ultra green 800 Watt because there not hoovering all the day all the time.

Leading in sales are usually design or colour or price , that is the only reason people can justify buying "Apple computer" .

For datacenters yes, common household use of a computer not very likely.
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Well welcome to reality then, because people do care, even for vacuum cleaners.

You should simply look at sales and products. It answers it all.
 
Shintai said:
Well welcome to reality then, because people do care, even for vacuum cleaners.

You should simply look at sales and products. It answers it all.
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Wrong again. Man you are on a roll. You are putting the cart before the horse. Tell you what, go to work and ask everyone what wattage their TV is. Guarantee most have no clue. Hell I work with a bunch of guys and not one knows.

By the by, my current one is 125W with my last one being 375W. Was the power use my reason for the new TV... HELL NO. It was the 720p to 1080p part. The energy usage is just the fact of the situation.
 
JustReason said:
Wrong again. Man you are on a roll. You are putting the cart before the horse. Tell you what, go to work and ask everyone what wattage their TV is. Guarantee most have no clue. Hell I work with a bunch of guys and not one knows.

By the by, my current one is 125W with my last one being 375W. Was the power use my reason for the new TV... HELL NO. It was the 720p to 1080p part. The energy usage is just the fact of the situation.
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Are you trying to say companies waste R&D and increase production cost on a metric that in your eyes doesn't matter?

And its easy to see how much energy a TV uses. Example from a random Samsung TV.
http://www.samsung.com/common/files/energylabel/UE60KS7005UXXE/UE60KS7005UXXE_Energylabel.pdf

And this info is pretty much pasted everywhere. Even homes are rated :)

And before you say EU only. They have it in a lot of countries, China included.
 
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Shintai said:
Well welcome to reality then, because people do care, even for vacuum cleaners.
You should simply look at sales and products. It answers it all.
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Well in a way you are right but in the EU they mandated that certain appliances would not go above certain thresholds , the vacuum is one of those EU mandated that they can not go above 1100 Watt. But you will find that it is the odd one out rather then common practise.

I would say that R&D is not wasted in the end it costs more to make a TV that dissipates 375 watt then when you only use 125 Watt.
 
Shintai said:
Are you trying to say companies waste R&D and increase production cost on a metric that in your eyes doesn't matter?

And its easy to see how much energy a TV uses. Example from a random Samsung TV.
http://www.samsung.com/common/files/energylabel/UE60KS7005UXXE/UE60KS7005UXXE_Energylabel.pdf

And this info is pretty much pasted everywhere. Even homes are rated :)

And before you say EU only. They have it in a lot of countries, China included.
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so you can't be bothered to ask others what their TV uses? I have and did again today and not one knows. One guy just bought his at the same time I did and he didn't have a clue. Fact is you are trying to attribute buying qualities to the consumer that for the better part of their number just do not attain. They buy thinner laptops because they think it is more advanced. Fact is it is likely less powerful than the other thicker laptop. Even battery life doesn't speak totally to efficiency as one with the bigger better battery lasts longer giving off the illusion of being more efficient whereas the fact is it isn't.

the common consumer generally isn't bothered with power consumption for the majority of their electronic purchases. That is how it is.
 
JustReason said:
Wrong again. Man you are on a roll. You are putting the cart before the horse. Tell you what, go to work and ask everyone what wattage their TV is. Guarantee most have no clue. Hell I work with a bunch of guys and not one knows.

By the by, my current one is 125W with my last one being 375W. Was the power use my reason for the new TV... HELL NO. It was the 720p to 1080p part. The energy usage is just the fact of the situation.
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Actually, People do care. People care about using less electricity. People do care about how much that mini-fridge is going to cost them in the long-run. It's not a metric they can quantify, just like their car transmission's gear ratios, but they can feel and see the difference and it can sway their decision making one way or another.
 
KazeoHin said:
Actually, People do care. People care about using less electricity. People do care about how much that mini-fridge is going to cost them in the long-run. It's not a metric they can quantify, just like their car transmission's gear ratios, but they can feel and see the difference and it can sway their decision making one way or another.
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If that is true? Why do people vote away their freedoms willing?
 
KazeoHin said:
Actually, People do care. People care about using less electricity. People do care about how much that mini-fridge is going to cost them in the long-run. It's not a metric they can quantify, just like their car transmission's gear ratios, but they can feel and see the difference and it can sway their decision making one way or another.
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Appliances are a different animal here in the US at least. They have tags quantifying their annual energy cost. This does not always correlate against anything available as most brands are equal in respect to performance/size levels. But the truth is that even then with that info on the tags the typical consumer is not looking hard enough across the range and only focusing on the annual cost, same with lightbulbs. Sure annual cost is great but longevity has to be a consideration as well as the amount of power be it hours for lightbulbs or BTUs with AC units.

But be that as it may that is not the same as consumer electronics, they aren't appliances by classification. Laptops don't have annual power usage expectancy. They have battery life but that doesn't speak to the product as a whole, as I mentioned earlier. Of course I agree that appliances are the one and likely only area the average consumer might actually look at efficiency. Again I did ask at my work who knew their wattage on their TV and no one knew be their purchase in the last year or years earlier. In general consumers don't know whether they care or not.
 
as far as PCs go the average consumer(80% of buyers) look at, in the order that I have observed, are; price, HDD size, GHz, RAM, batt life and price again. then screen size, brand, cpu and lastly gpu are not nearly as important. most want to spend $400-600 some a bit higher. business users will usually stretch to $1000. this is what ive observed since I started with pcs in '98. business, gamers and enthusiasts make up that 20%.

but what this has to do with zen is beyond me...

edit: added batt life.
 
The leaks say:
Comparable per clock performance to Broadwell
3.1Ghz base, 3.6Ghz Turbo for the 8 core 95 watt CPU
2.8Ghz base, 3.4Ghz Turbo for the 4 core 65 watt CPU

Top TDP is 140 watts

There are 16 core and 32 core versions as well.
 
Mackintire said:
The leaks say:
Comparable per clock performance to Broadwell
3.1Ghz base, 3.6Ghz Turbo for the 8 core 95 watt CPU
2.8Ghz base, 3.4Ghz Turbo for the 4 core 65 watt CPU

Top TDP is 140 watts

There are 16 core and 32 core versions as well.
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Now it comes down to price - same price it will have a very hard time
A significant but not excessively lower price -> Winner for you and AMD
Ridiculous low price that some wants -> Bad for AMD.

8 Core Broadwell goes for around $1000, so what would be a good price if AMD has similar performance with their 8core/16thread Zen?
 
noko said:
Now it comes down to price - same price it will have a very hard time
A significant but not excessively lower price -> Winner for you and AMD
Ridiculous low price that some wants -> Bad for AMD.

8 Core Broadwell goes for around $1000, so what would be a good price if AMD has similar performance with their 8core/16thread Zen?
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I say the minimum would be $350 but that is if it is under performing. With decent performance Id look for $550 minimum.
 
Shintai said:
Lets look at the facts for a bit.

People want lower power, smaller devices. Companies want lower power etc to save TCO. The only crowd asking for more performance with no regard to power consumption is a sub 1% crowd.

People are moving away fast from desktop class CPUs. More and more so called desktop class products now contain mobile CPUs because this is what consumers want.

A product like HEDT chip wouldn't even be possible to sustain itself if it wasn't for the server line. There is nothing preventing you from buying "moar cores" if you want. But the truth is people dont want to and that's why it cant sustain itself despite what your personal demand may be. What you want is not what the 99% want. AMD wouldn't even make Zen with 8 cores if it wasn't because of the server segment. All you see would be 2 and 4 core APUs instead.

And please drop the competition BS. It serves no purpose because if innovation wasn't there, people wouldn't upgrade. AMD and Intel isn't selling tap water. The competition is previous products and always was.
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I do not agree. Most people do not want anything by themselves... but they will take whatever is fashionable at the moment and is shown on television without ever crunching some numbers. That is the reality.

So... do people want lower power? They believe they do, but they don't need it. Low power is useful when:

a) The thing is on 24/7

b) The thing is coupled with a battery.

Who cares if your vacuum cleaner is 3kw? It is on... like a couple hours a week? A fridge, on the other hand, is an appliance that is on 24/7 during all its lifespan.

Lastly, it isn't that people don't want desktop class products... what happens is that there is no reason to buy a huge computer when a 10W product (that is smaller, uses less power and makes less noise) will do whatever you want it to do. Know anybody that changed their TV because of power usage?



KazeoHin said:
You're right about the average person being a tech idiot, but you are wrong about people caring about efficiency or knowing how efficient their products are. Energy ratings are used to advertise products and battery-life is the #2 or even #1 desired attribute of new mobile technology. Things being smaller, creating less noise and generating less heat are ALL things 'average Joe' desires and are ALL things major companies advertise and compete with each-other on.
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Again, that is what the market made sheeple believe. Here we have the same myth: the diesel cars. Everybody and his mother opts for a diesel car because... savings. What savings, you moron? The car uses less fuel, and fuel is cheaper. Rinse and repeat. Over and over. And that is true... but what they don't know or don't want to know because they are sheeple is that the car is more expensive (at the same power output) AND maintenance is much more expensive. Sure, diesel is the way to go IF you do a lot of miles (or kilometers) with it... and 90% of those who bought a diesel do not qualify, but they are dumb and buy whatever the system tells them to buy.


Shintai said:
Well welcome to reality then, because people do care, even for vacuum cleaners.

You should simply look at sales and products. It answers it all.
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For a vaccum cleaner you care that the thing sucks the dirt. You don't care if it is 1500W or 4000W. Heck I'd take the latter so I can do the job in half the time.

Shintai said:
Are you trying to say companies waste R&D and increase production cost on a metric that in your eyes doesn't matter?

And its easy to see how much energy a TV uses. Example from a random Samsung TV.
http://www.samsung.com/common/files/energylabel/UE60KS7005UXXE/UE60KS7005UXXE_Energylabel.pdf

And this info is pretty much pasted everywhere. Even homes are rated :)

And before you say EU only. They have it in a lot of countries, China included.
Click to expand...

Companies spend their R&D to increase sales. And you sell people whatever you want to sell them. In order to do that, you will make them believe whatever you can. The thing is that once the train is on... you can either take it or go find another job. Most companies have no other choice but to jump on board.


KazeoHin said:
Actually, People do care. People care about using less electricity. People do care about how much that mini-fridge is going to cost them in the long-run. It's not a metric they can quantify, just like their car transmission's gear ratios, but they can feel and see the difference and it can sway their decision making one way or another.
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Not really. People will look at the annual cost of the thing, tops. But they will not consider what the actual difference (in money-terms) between their appliance that still works and the new one they are planning. Also, older stuff tends to last longer... so some of the savings go down the drain.

It's like spending $50 to upgrade your bronze psu to a gold one. You are going from 80% to 90% (i'm speculating since I don't know the exact ratings, but you get the idea) which means that in a 200W system you are talking about ~23W. 23W @ 8 hours a day = ~68kwh in savings a year. Worth it again to upgrade? On a 24/7 system it is a completely different story, though.

But again, it is all about crunching the numbers.
 
Shintai said:
People in the niche never do ;)

Governments, companies and consumers have spoken and they care.

You may also have forgotten what AMDs mantra was with K8.
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prove it. Sales numbers prove nothing. Find proof speaking directly to efficiency. You try so hard to skew any argument, try for once to answer the question as stated and intended.
 
JustReason said:
prove it. Sales numbers prove nothing. Find proof speaking directly to efficiency. You try so hard to skew any argument, try for once to answer the question as stated and intended.
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I think you are simply out of educational reach. So lets just stop it here :)

And dont try and reverse the burden of proof.
 
JustReason said:
prove it. Sales numbers prove nothing. Find proof speaking directly to efficiency. You try so hard to skew any argument, try for once to answer the question as stated and intended.
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Why do you even bother with him anymore? I do very rarely unhide his posts anymore but when I do, I always get at least a good chuckle. :) On a more on topic note, I am seriously looking forward to this release but, I am not going to stay up until midnight just to be able to be the first one to buy it. Hopefully, they will have a good number in stock right from the start.
 
AMD Confirms Zen launch: Now we know when it is coming. So, what does any other information in this thread have to do with that other than the usual parties trying to turn this car off the road and into a ditch? :D
 
Just an FYI guys. Shintai is known to try to get AMD threads locked and troll hard. This is why he was permanently banned from Anandtech forums. He will totally try to promote his agenda and turn thread off-topic. My advice to you is to put him on Ignore.

Back on Topic. Is there any new news on ZEN APU's? I know Wccftech had some info, but curious if anyone else knows of any new news?
 
Brackle said:
Just an FYI guys. Shintai is known to try to get AMD threads locked and troll hard. This is why he was permanently banned from Anandtech forums. He will totally try to promote his agenda and turn thread off-topic. My advice to you is to put him on Ignore.

Back on Topic. Is there any new news on ZEN APU's? I know Wccftech had some info, but curious if anyone else knows of any new news?
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Shintai was permanently banned from AT forums? I wonder why did i see him post recently there :p.

Anyways, obviously there are no actual news on Zen APUs because they are at least a year away. Best you'll have is random rumor from Fottemberg.
 
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Intel's Fabs may have a few third party customers, but that will be limited outside of ARM cores, their is far to many trade secrets within chip designs, for most of the fabless companies to want and effectively hand their secret sauce to their competitor, One of the reasons AMD broke GF off was because of this, the conflict of interest was a huge problem for many chip designers. Its much easier to work with a company that doesn't compete in the chip design space for manufacture of the chips, and for the likes of TSMC/GF its very much in their interest to not leak/barrow the secret sauce.
 
luminousone said:
Intel's Fabs may have a few third party customers, but that will be limited outside of ARM cores, their is far to many trade secrets within chip designs, for most of the fabless companies to want and effectively hand their secret sauce to their competitor, One of the reasons AMD broke GF off was because of this, the conflict of interest was a huge problem for many chip designers. Its much easier to work with a company that doesn't compete in the chip design space for manufacture of the chips, and for the likes of TSMC/GF its very much in their interest to not leak/barrow the secret sauce.
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Interesting, where can I find the discussion regarding that?
 
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