ZDNet Editorial: Blu-ray is Dead

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While we may not agree with everything that was said in this editorial, we do believe that pricing Blu-ray players and movies in line with current DVDs is a smart move. Thanks to IceWeasel for the linkage.

Fire all the market research firms telling you how great it is going to be. They are playing you. Your #1 goal: market share. High volume is your only chance to earn your way out of this mess and keep some control of your distribution.
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Personally, I think that if the consumer could pay the same for HD content versus SD content they would chose high-def every time. Wipe out DVD and you have the market to yourself. Am I wrong?
 
studios are moving to hd cause the returns on dvd suck. the profit margins are too small.

folks who buy hd have $ and are willing to spend it. you need a hd tv or screen, pref in the 50+ inch size with 1080p... folks who have 5.1 or 7.1 sound systems... folks who wont flinch at buying movies at $30 a pop or more. upper middle class with disposable income.

vs folks who buy movies at $10 a pop on dvd or stream/dl or upconvert sd materials and pretend it's full hd...

as sd tv's are phased out, folks will be forced to buy hdtv and once they do, they'll eventually move on to hd content.

last thing studio will want to do is price bd down to dvd levels. studios arent in the business to push hd to the masses, they are here to make a buck. prices will naturally go down over time, same as with dvds. no need for studios to kill their golden egg before they need to.
 
Strangely, theres a lot of people out there who have 50" screens with 1080p and still refuse to go Bluray and insist on a good dvd player with upconverting.

And really, the quality on an upconverted DVD is quite good. Bluray doesn't exactly blow you away like its another century or even "next gen" video hardware; in some cases DVD and BRD are practically indestinguishable. It was a bit of a letdown. There are definitely some great titles out there, but the support for bluray in the market is still weak because of all the sdtv's and even hdtv's under 50" floating around.
 
I have a 50" DLP and an Oppo Up-Converting DVD Player. I have NO desire to go BluRay under the current circumstances.

There just isn't much difference.

About the difference of choosing a Ford Expedition Limited instead of a more expensive Lincoln Navigator. It's mostly fluff...
 
TechLarry said:
About the difference of choosing a Ford Expedition Limited instead of a more expensive Lincoln Navigator. It's mostly fluff...
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Having driven and owned both, it's more than just "fluff". Just figure I should put my two cents into this comment.
 
BettiePage said:
last thing studio will want to do is price bd down to dvd levels. studios arent in the business to push hd to the masses, they are here to make a buck. prices will naturally go down over time, same as with dvds. no need for studios to kill their golden egg before they need to.
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Prices never "naturally" go down. It is always someones decision and a decision that can usually be made long before it actually happens. The enthusiast bracket is merely a small percentage and realistically that market is fairly tapped. The average joe makes up the vast majority of the market and most of them just know its more expensive and they dont need it. As long is its so expensive the average joe will not adopt it unless thier convinced they need it. Even with PS3 owners the vast majority still dont buy blu-ray titles because they dont need it or dont understand it enough.

So yes like almost everything else in this world if the mainstream is to adopt something the price needs to be in line with what is already out there or damn close to it.
 
"With only a 4% share of US movie disc sales and HD download capability arriving, the Blu-ray disc Association (BDA) is still smoking dope. Even $150 Blu-ray players won’t save it."


Wow, totally wrong. BD has been consistently putting up 10% share each week of total video sales against DVD.
 
55" 1080i here, and no desire to go HD anytime soon. 55" porn is one thing, but some things are better left to the imagination. :)
 
I agree that the only way they're going to catch on with the majority of consumers is lower prices in line with DVD's.In case they haven't noticed,the economy worldwide is in the tank.They're not in the same position DVD was in when it was introduced.It was such an improvement over VCR people were willing to pay more.
 
52" DLP will go blu-ray sometime and until the I download HD movies only and play them with my HTPC BOOSH.
 
This sounds like an article we would see if HD-DVD was still around...seriously. BD is being adopted at a faster rate than DVD was when it was introduced to the public. All of my friends who currently only have an upscaling player want to eventually upgrade to BD.

Everyone I've shown a BD movie to has been blown away by the quality. "Not much better than an upconverted DVD" is BS.
 
I have HD DVD player currently that came out to cost $50 after BB %50 gift card sent over after toshiba discontinued these. I also got 5 HDDVDs as a part of the rebate. I also bought several titles in $5-$10 range and that I consider a good deal...

Am I willing to invest in $200 player to have a honor to pay $30 for a single movie? No. I would rent (if anything) the movie from Netflix of Blockbuster if anything. I personally cannot substantiate paying anything over $15 for any movie, being it BD/HDDVD, except for few titles I could count on on hand.

Between fuel prices, food prices, stock market hitting the crapper and plethora of other issues affecting disposable income I don't see myself investing into BD ever.
 
thejulex said:
I have HD DVD player currently that came out to cost $50 after BB %50 gift card sent over after toshiba discontinued these. I also got 5 HDDVDs as a part of the rebate. I also bought several titles in $5-$10 range and that I consider a good deal...

Am I willing to invest in $200 player to have a honor to pay $30 for a single movie? No. I would rent (if anything) the movie from Netflix of Blockbuster if anything. I personally cannot substantiate paying anything over $15 for any movie, being it BD/HDDVD, except for few titles I could count on on hand.

Between fuel prices, food prices, stock market hitting the crapper and plethora of other issues affecting disposable income I don't see myself investing into BD ever.
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Good thing BD movies arent 30$ a title then eh? The misinformation that still exists still blows my mind.
 
People who say upconverting DVD on their large HDTV isn't much different from Blu-ray should get their eyes checked.
 
"An average of about 20% of Iron Man's total unit sales are on Blu-ray". I would call that a significant chunk for such a young format that BD is.
 
Amen Steve.

With 75% profit loss or whatever... wouldn't they try a new strategy?
 
ZDNet needs to STFU. No way in fucking hell I'm going to restort to "HD" streaming or bullshit HD off itunes.
 
some people don't really notice that much of a difference going from DVD to blu-ray.

But use blu-ray for a month then go back to DVD and everyone will notice a huge difference.

Once you get used to the HD watching a regular dvd just hurts. Watched Boogie nights last weekend on dvd and man talk about pain.
 
Haste266 said:
This sounds like an article we would see if HD-DVD was still around...seriously. BD is being adopted at a faster rate than DVD was when it was introduced to the public. All of my friends who currently only have an upscaling player want to eventually upgrade to BD.

Everyone I've shown a BD movie to has been blown away by the quality. "Not much better than an upconverted DVD" is BS.
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...for the movies that were cleaned up effort put in to have great quality. Not all things released on BR are good quality encodings.

I think people have a point about the quality issue. It's about what you are willing to pay for and what you are content with.

My biggest concern when I bought my 60" TV back in 2000 was that I did not have to see the scan lines while watching TV shows. That was a big deal.

Watching DVDs on that set for me looks good enough to where I am not feeling pressure to upgrade anything. For the current cost, I personally do not see the value in going to BR. I just don't care enough.

Personally, I hope people put as much effort into getting a good digital receiver and speakers because having good surround sound is to me money better spent for the home theater experience rather than going to BR without surround.
 
thejulex said:
I have HD DVD player currently that came out to cost $50 after BB %50 gift card sent over after toshiba discontinued these. I also got 5 HDDVDs as a part of the rebate. I also bought several titles in $5-$10 range and that I consider a good deal...

Am I willing to invest in $200 player to have a honor to pay $30 for a single movie? No. I would rent (if anything) the movie from Netflix of Blockbuster if anything. I personally cannot substantiate paying anything over $15 for any movie, being it BD/HDDVD, except for few titles I could count on on hand.

Between fuel prices, food prices, stock market hitting the crapper and plethora of other issues affecting disposable income I don't see myself investing into BD ever.
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Well said! I feel exactly the same.

I have a 30" 16:9 hdtv that is a tube. It works great. I actually got rid of my 37" westinghouse due to no CC available on it. Not all dvd's come with English subtitles. PROGRESSIVE scan never works for subtitles. I've never seen it discussed, but the fact is:

$200+ for a movie player = LOSE (if it was $200 & played ps3 games, maybe...)
$30 for a movie = LOSE
Having to blow another $1500+ on a new tv to see the difference = BIG LOSE

Anyone know if all Blu-Ray discs have english subtitles or CC? If they don't they are useless to me as I need to read subitles/cc in order to understand movies.
 
Bluray is good for Action movies, but do you really need a comedy in high def? I think not.
 
Haste266 said:
"With only a 4% share of US movie disc sales and HD download capability arriving, the Blu-ray disc Association (BDA) is still smoking dope. Even $150 Blu-ray players won’t save it."


Wow, totally wrong. BD has been consistently putting up 10% share each week of total video sales against DVD.
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Do you have any linkage?

4saken said:
"An average of about 20% of Iron Man's total unit sales are on Blu-ray". I would call that a significant chunk for such a young format that BD is.
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Iron Man is one of those exceptions to the rule. As action packed and CGI'ish as that movie was, it was an obvious choice for blu-ray owners. Iron Man is way out of the norm of movies that people get as far as on-screen effects.

Azhar said:
People who say upconverting DVD on their large HDTV isn't much different from Blu-ray should get their eyes checked.
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Not everyone is a videophile, especially not Joe Schmoe.

4saken said:
Good thing BD movies arent 30$ a title then eh? The misinformation that still exists still blows my mind.
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Interesting, I found that to be mostly true, unless it was an older title and then it was $20. A quick trip to amazon: Blu-Ray Titles
 
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Robstar said:
Well said! I feel exactly the same.

I have a 30" 16:9 hdtv that is a tube. It works great. I actually got rid of my 37" westinghouse due to no CC available on it. Not all dvd's come with English subtitles. PROGRESSIVE scan never works for subtitles. I've never seen it discussed, but the fact is:

$200+ for a movie player = LOSE (if it was $200 & played ps3 games, maybe...)
$30 for a movie = LOSE
Having to blow another $1500+ on a new tv to see the difference = BIG LOSE

Anyone know if all Blu-Ray discs have english subtitles or CC? If they don't they are useless to me as I need to read subitles/cc in order to understand movies.
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Hop aboard the fail boat with every1 else!
 
Blue Ray absolutely has to = eye popping image quality. People who buy hi-def want to see hi def.

Upconverting dvd's can cause confusion. But only on smaller (32") crappy hi def TV's.

Here's what has been happening. Joe Consumer excitedly unboxes his new "hi-def" 32" TV that maxes out a 720p, has slow refresh rates, has horrible black levels and very tight viewing angles. He plugs in the coaxial cable and says "This looks like crap!". Then he plugs in his upscaling DVD player and pops in his favorite DVD. "This looks pretty good!". Then he dumps $500 on a BR and hooks it up. "This looks the same as my DVD's and it's too expensive." Back goes the BR and he tells everyone what a waste the BR is.

Now that we are seeing decent HDTV's (good refresh rates, fewer 720p's, cheaper prices for larger screens) and lower player prices we can see Blue Ray take off even more.
 
Virtus said:
Blue Ray absolutely has to = eye popping image quality. People who buy hi-def want to see hi def.

Upconverting dvd's can cause confusion. But only on smaller (32") crappy hi def TV's.

Here's what has been happening. Joe Consumer excitedly unboxes his new "hi-def" 32" TV that maxes out a 720p, has slow refresh rates, has horrible black levels and very tight viewing angles. He plugs in the coaxial cable and says "This looks like crap!". Then he plugs in his upscaling DVD player and pops in his favorite DVD. "This looks pretty good!". Then he dumps $500 on a BR and hooks it up. "This looks the same as my DVD's and it's too expensive." Back goes the BR and he tells everyone what a waste the BR is.

Now that we are seeing decent HDTV's (good refresh rates, fewer 720p's, cheaper prices for larger screens) and lower player prices we can see Blue Ray take off even more.
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I agree...not that there is anything wrong with Joe Consumer, either...
 
TechLarry said:
I have a 50" DLP and an Oppo Up-Converting DVD Player. I have NO desire to go BluRay under the current circumstances.

There just isn't much difference.

About the difference of choosing a Ford Expedition Limited instead of a more expensive Lincoln Navigator. It's mostly fluff...
Click to expand...

Have you actually done a comparison between BluRay and standard def?

...have you had your eyes checked lately? It's kind of a joke, but it's kind of a legit issue. I find that a lot of people who can afford to go HD don't care because they literally can't see the difference. Example, my father-in-law has terrible eyesight and he can't tell the difference, even with his glasses on. For me, it's like night and day.
 
Steve said:
While we may not agree with everything that was said in this editorial, we do believe that pricing Blu-ray players and movies in line with current DVDs is a smart move. Thanks to IceWeasel for the linkage.
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I think the article's reference to SACD, LaserDisc, DVD-Audio, MiniDisc, and Betamax is kind of misguided. Those formats didn't fail because the consumer simply didn't want a new format, they failed for very good reasons. LD was doomed from the start, those huge discs were never gonna catch on... SACD and DVD-Audio's advantages in quality were much harder for the average consumer to appreciate. Betamax simply lost to a competing format. Finally MD failed due to Sony itself as much as anything else, and the rise of MP3s and flash-based MP3 players were the nail in it's coffin.

Frankly I'd be disappointed if BD fails, but I wouldn't lamment it too much if it simply turns into a niche product, though that probably means the media will always carry a premium and that sucks... But I don't think downloable HD content is the wave of the future for a good majority of people, not for a few years still... Not with ISP's still imposing bandwith caps left and right and not with the inane amounts of DRM that we'll endure with those downloads.
 
well the bluray prices are actually keeping me from buying either DVDs or Bluray disks.

I hate to waste money on a soon to be dying format and hate to pay the prices for both a quality player and the disks so for now I just rent the DVDs I want to see and let my library age without any new updates

Also about the eyes things.. a 1080p set may not be needed even at 50 inch if you sit 12 feet away from it. If you are in big enough a room many people may not be able to tell the difference between the formats.
 
No matter what the source is, 1080p means squat until the display is 50" or larger.

http://www.carltonbale.com/home-theater/home-theater-calculator/

$30 Blu-Ray discs don't exist? I guess no one shops at Wal-Mart. Sure the same movie is cheaper at amazon, when a consumer sees a $30 "sale" price on the shelf, it does effect the perception that Blu-Ray is too expensive.

http://formatwarcentral.com/2008/10/24/hey-wal-mart-your-blu-ray-prices-suck/

Blu-Ray has 10% market share? NPD numbers are less than transparent.

Is Iron Man on BD still 20% of overall Iron Man disc sales or did everyone who's was going to buy it on Blu already done so?

I love my HD content (have both PS3 and HD DVD player), but given the fact that Blu has to compete against all the download formats, on demand offerings and an economy in the crapper, the assumption that Blu will be the dominant HD format is just silly.

I for one will be more than content to have Blu-Ray fit into a nice niche for those of us that want excellent transfers, superior encodes and lossless audio. If going mass market means sacrificing any of those three, count me out.
 
i have currently built a htpc machine for my 40" sammy....and i have the dual format LG drive that does HD-DVD and Bluray's....and have to say if you can't see a different between dvd and one of the two hd formats...you would still be fine with a VHS release because you obviously aren't looking at the video quality...not that is a overly bad thing....

for me, Iron Man was a MUST HAVE on bluray....and someone made a good comment about comedies...why the hell would i want to spend around 30 bucks on a bluray (this is in canada, where even walmart sells blurays for that much...got Indy 4 at a "steal" for 28! + tax) for a comedy when i can get the dvd for around 20.

one thing though, Rogers Video (like blockbuster, only Canadian) had a used media sale...where there was an extra 33% off...we got 2 blurays for 30 bucks (they were used, but hardly!)....even normally they're only about 22 bucks...THAT is reasonable for me

my problem with bluray movies is there isn't ENOUGH titles....i have most of the blurays on dvd already...i'm not going to buy it AGAIN (i have bought a few HD DVD copies of movies i already own...got them for 5 bucks a peice of walmart...w00t!) so as more new movies come out, the greater the adoption rate IMHO

when bluray gets releases like LOTR (if it EVER comes out...sheesh) you'll see a much higher adoption rate...but there just isn't that many "MUST HAVE's" to drive demand right now...

i refuse to believe it's dead though, if you've ever been in a store lately you'll see the ever increasing shelf space used for BR....that's not a sign of death
 
I have a PS3 hooked up with an HDMI cable running at 1080p, so theoretically I'm good to go. Thing is, because I'm more of a gamer than a videophile, I rarely even remember that I can play BR discs when I'm movie shopping. I just want to watch the damn film, so I walk straight up to the DVD isle and pick up what I'm after.

It's not like I'm not aware of my setups capabilities, it's just that it doesn't matter as much to me. Maybe increased marketing and consumer awareness is what's needed.
 
4saken said:
Good thing BD movies arent 30$ a title then eh? The misinformation that still exists still blows my mind.
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They are if you go buy them at some rip-off central like Borders... I think that's as much part of the problem as anything.
 
XamediX said:
Interesting, I found that to be mostly true, unless it was an older title and then it was $20. A quick trip to amazon: Blu-Ray Titles
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Funny I go to that page and the first 12 Blu-rays I see this. And I added the DVD comparison just for kicks!!

Blu-ray Price comparison :)

1.The Dark Knight (+ Digital Copy and BD Live) - $24.95
DVD - The Dark Knight (Two-Disc Special Edition + Digital Copy) - $22.99
Standard Single Disc - $16.99

2.Iron Man (Ultimate Two-Disc Edition + BD Live) - $25.95
DVD - Iron Man (Two-Disc Special Collectors' Edition) - $22.99 (you do get a wicked cool plastic case with this one though!
Standard Single Disc - $14.99

3.Incredible Hulk - $24.95
DVD - The Incredible Hulk (Three-Disc Special Edition) - $22.99
Standard Single Disc - $15.99

4.Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $23.95
DVD - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Two-Disc Special Edition) - $22.99
Standard Single Disc - $15.99

5.Wall-E (Three-Disc Special Edition + Digital Copy and BD Live) - $24.95
DVD - Wall-E (Three-Disc Special Edition + Digital Copy) - $22.99
Standard Single Disc - $16.99

6.Sleeping Beauty (Two-Disc Platinum Edition + Standard DVD and BD Live) - $23.95
DVD - Sleeping Beauty (Two-Disc Platinum Edition) $14.99
The Blu-Ray comes with the DVD version included

7.The Ultimate Matrix Collection - $74.95
DVD = The Ultimate Matrix Collection (The Matrix/ The Matrix Reloaded/ The Matrix Revolutions/ The Animatrix) - $30.99
Hey you guys won this one...the price is way different. But Matrix is crazy nice in HD :p haha

8.Transformers (Two-Disc Special Edition + BD Live) - $19.95
DVD - Transformers (Two-Disc Special Edition) - $24.99 (holy crap its $5 dollars more for the exact same thing on DVD!)
Standard Single Disc - $13.49

9.Hellboy II: The Golden Army - $26.95
DVD - Hellboy II: The Golden Army (3 Disc Special Edition) - $17.99 (pretty good price there)
Standard Single Disc - $17.99 - wonder why single disc cheapo version isn't cheaper though?

10.The Godfather - The Coppola Restoration Giftset (The Godfather / The Godfather Part II / The Godfather Part III) - $61.95
DVD - The Godfather - The Coppola Restoration Giftset DVD - $49.99

11.Journey to the Center of the Earth (2-D and Limited-Edition 3-D) - $26.95
DVD - Journey to the Center of the Earth (Limited-Edition 2-D and 3-D with Glasses) - $15.99
Standard Single Disc - $14.99

12.The Nightmare Before Christmas + Digital Copy - $22.95
DVD - The Nightmare Before Christmas (2-Disc Collector's Edition + Digital Copy) - $20.99


I was bored:)
Things to notice
- From my experience most Blu-rays came with all the content the special edition DVDs did...not always the case
- Digital Copy means that this version includes a code with the DVD to transfer the movie into iTunes or whatever to play digitally
- Avg. Price of these 12 new Blu-rays was $23 dollars
- These are all really new or pre-order movies

Take it for what it is worth :) You decide what is going to be more expensive or less expensive for you.
I have found "older" Blu-ray movies for less than $20 dollars EASILY all over the place and they often have bundle sales where you can BUY 1 GET 1 free which effectively makes them the same price as DVDs

I think Blu-ray should lower its prices....but I feel that people for the most part like to complain just to complain.
 
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GQCarrick said:
Bluray is good for Action movies, but do you really need a comedy in high def? I think not.
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Heh, that's actually been my buying strategy lately... I've kept buying comedies, dramas, and that sorta stuff on DVD.
 
I just skimmed the thread, but noticed people keep mentioning that Blu-rays cost $30. I just bought Spiderman 3 for $19.99 at Walmart the other day. The DVD was $14.99. Not that much difference. In fact, its very much like like when DVD's were $19,99 and VHS was $14.99 just a few years ago.
 
BettiePage said:
studios are moving to hd cause the returns on dvd suck. the profit margins are too small.

folks who buy hd have $ and are willing to spend it. you need a hd tv or screen, pref in the 50+ inch size with 1080p... folks who have 5.1 or 7.1 sound systems... folks who wont flinch at buying movies at $30 a pop or more. upper middle class with disposable income.

vs folks who buy movies at $10 a pop on dvd or stream/dl or upconvert sd materials and pretend it's full hd...

as sd tv's are phased out, folks will be forced to buy hdtv and once they do, they'll eventually move on to hd content.

last thing studio will want to do is price bd down to dvd levels. studios arent in the business to push hd to the masses, they are here to make a buck. prices will naturally go down over time, same as with dvds. no need for studios to kill their golden egg before they need to.
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You should probably take some business and economics classes as you don't seem to understand the market.

Bluray is trying to take over the market that is currently DVD. To do so requires that the prices of Bluray discs and hardware reach the level of the current leader to gain true market penetration. Movies are a high volume low profit per unit business. It means it has to be affordable for the masses to make any serious profit from it. Currently, Bluray is not even close to entering this part of the market and it's the part of the market which makes substantial profit. Pricing yourself out of the mainstream market is not something Bluray can afford if it wants to be anything other than a niche product.

Bluray needs to offer perceived value greater than that of DVD if it wants to continue to charge a price premium over DVD. This includes hardware and is especially important for the individual discs. Bluray has not accomplished this in regards to the mainstream market and something has to be done about it before Bluray can truly succeed.

Virtus said:
Blue Ray absolutely has to = eye popping image quality. People who buy hi-def want to see hi def.

Upconverting dvd's can cause confusion. But only on smaller (32") crappy hi def TV's.

Here's what has been happening. Joe Consumer excitedly unboxes his new "hi-def" 32" TV that maxes out a 720p, has slow refresh rates, has horrible black levels and very tight viewing angles. He plugs in the coaxial cable and says "This looks like crap!". Then he plugs in his upscaling DVD player and pops in his favorite DVD. "This looks pretty good!". Then he dumps $500 on a BR and hooks it up. "This looks the same as my DVD's and it's too expensive." Back goes the BR and he tells everyone what a waste the BR is.

Now that we are seeing decent HDTV's (good refresh rates, fewer 720p's, cheaper prices for larger screens) and lower player prices we can see Blue Ray take off even more.
Click to expand...

You've actually proven a point about why Bluray is still a niche product. Most people don't buy 50"+ HDTVs. This is because they can't afford them, don't want anything that big or a variety of other reasons. On top of that, the players are also a large chunk of change. If Bluray doesn't really look any better than upconverted DVD on the average joe's TV, why should the average joe go out and spend a lot more money on Bluray? There is no perceived value in the purchase, just higher prices.

I'm not against HD at all. It's very very easy for me to see the difference on my 24" LCD monitor which is the closest thing I have to a TV. Then again, we're also talking about a resolution of 1920x1200 and it doesn't take much for me to notice the difference between SD content and even 720p content. However, I am more critical of how good the source looks and sounds than the majority of people. I'm no videophile or audiophile by any means but I do notice the difference and appreciate the advantages. That said, I still use regular old DVDs because the price premium of Bluray is still higher than I am willing to pay at this time. The absolute most I would do is get a Bluray drive for my main computer and I won't even get one of those until I can find a good one for under $100.

 
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