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What will happen to nvidia?

O

OhMyGod

Gawd
Joined
Aug 24, 2006
Messages
658
Ok, first this is NOT trolling. Just a real question.

With ATI's new 48xx series cards performing so well (including the 4870x2). I would imagine Nvidia's series will be a flop... as in not sell very well.

Will Nvidia lose much money? If so, what will they do to try and compete? It seems Nvidia is on defense now on all fronts (chipsets and gpu's). Will this make them push the partnership with VIA more?

Just wondering what the landscape will look like in a year or so.
 
Well, I'm by no means an expert in this area, but I think it is WAY too early to be calling the Nvidia series a "flop". I do think that they need to lower the price (and they will to an extent) to be competitive.

There are many people out there that would still buy the GTX 260 over the 4870 if they were priced similar, just due to their preference for Nvidia cards, drivers, familiarity, Nvidia name, etc...
 
If I had a crystal ball I'd use it for lotto numbers and stocks! Really, who knows. nVidia is under the gun right now, the GTX isn't a flop, not from a performance stance. nVidia could cut the price in half if they had to. They'd loose money in the short term, but as long as they had a longer term solution they'd be okay. Remember AMD is the one in the red, no pun intended. They'll need a string of very successful product launches.

I looks bad for nVidia right now because of their prices, but that is going to probably change much faster than most expect. What's really going to be interesting is the 4870x2 and if nVidia has anything up its sleeve for that. They can't address the 4870x2 with a price cut. The remainder of this year is going to be one where nVidia is going to be in over drive. What makes nVidia so formidable is that they usually respond.
 
Nvidia will have to respond and make money. I'm sure Nvidia will be around for awhile yet.
 
krameriffic said:
GeForce 5000 series and Radeon 2000 series all over again I think.
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Just because the parts are more expensive doesn't mean they're not faster. The GTX 280 is still the fastest single card available. Faster than the 4870 by a fairly good margin in certain games. That wasn't the case with the GeForce 5000 series. The new GTX 280 and 260 are strong performers, it's just that nVidia is currently charging more of a premium for those parts. ATI's 4870 series is hard to get ahold of here at release due to the GDDR5. I'm personally going with a 2 4870's in Crossfire since it's the best option I think for price but if I have had an endless amount of money I'd probably just grab two GTX 280's for SLI since they would be faster and I can easily find one to order.
 
heatlesssun said:
If I had a crystal ball I'd use it for lotto numbers and stocks! Really, who knows. nVidia is under the gun right now, the GTX isn't a flop, not from a performance stance. nVidia could cut the price in half if they had to. They'd loose money in the short term, but as long as they had a longer term solution they'd be okay. Remember AMD is the one in the red, no pun intended. They'll need a string of very successful product launches.

I looks bad for nVidia right now because of their prices, but that is going to probably change much faster than most expect. What's really going to be interesting is the 4870x2 and if nVidia has anything up its sleeve for that. They can't address the 4870x2 with a price cut. The remainder of this year is going to be one where nVidia is going to be in over drive. What makes nVidia so formidable is that they usually respond.
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Actually, they'll launch fanboys spouting microstutter. :p
 
You realize Nvidia is making money from more than the GTX 200 series right? All those low end cards, mobile GPUs, motherboard chipsets and things like that. Even if they sold the GTX 280 at a loss, they would probably still be making money off all their other products. They are not going anywhere.
 
what should happen is that they loose enough market share for ATi to get even with them. That way no one gets screwed with stupid shit like TWIWMTBP......
 
Thats the primary goal of why ATI is selling cards so low. If they regain market share to where they're even, Nvidia will have less leverage to push TWIMTBP and other standards like PhysX and CUDA and so on. That's where ATI is trying to catch up the most with and the quickest way is to regain market share to regain developer and market confidence.
 
Nvidia will be fine as many others have stated, while my new 4850 looks nice, AMD/ATi are the one's you should be asking about. They still have a long ways to go despite the 4800 series doing well. Nvidia will drop their prices, among doing other things, and life will go on. Nvidia really isn't in any "trouble", this was a silly question even if it was honest :p lol.

/close thread

On the developer programs front, the 4800 series aren't going to force an "about-face" on developers out there. Nvidia's program is successful because they can put forth the money and they still can even now. ATi never really pushed their developer program from the start. Nvidia's has been more successful for a long time, long before the 8800 series came on the scene. The 4800 series will help ATi on developer support or "deals" this go-around, but TWIMTBP program is still going to have far more support, always has (even during the x1900's reign).
 
Nvidia has no debt so their financial situation is fine. Yeah they'll probably lose a bit of market share as well as value in their stock but they'll chug on. Nvidia had the debacle called the FX5800 and persevered and ATI recently had the 2900XT and has shown they can come back.

AMD just needs to come back with its CPU division to be at least profitable at this point. Oh and fire Ruiz.
 
ZerazaX said:
AMD just needs to come back with its CPU division to be at least profitable at this point. Oh and fire Ruiz.
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Not arguing with you, I'm just commenting that I really doubt that'll happen. Intel looks to have stayed on the ball and they can play the price game harder and longer than AMD or Nvidia can. We won't know for sure until both chip families are out of course.
 
Nvidia is still in a far better financial situation than AMD is. Also, it would be a resonable guess that AMD is selling these video cards with fantastically low margins. It's very possible that even if they are selling more video cards, both companies may be turning similar profits.

It's going to sit in AMD's favor for a month or two until Nvidia decides what price range to come down to. They have the cash to wait and react without making a rash decision.

I'm also very interested to see what will happen with the 260 and 280 once we get some new and patches for current games that enable some decent physics processing. The insane stream processor capability of the GTX 260 and 280 may make for some real interesting benchmark hell if the performance numbers start to prove out for them now rather than sometime in the future as devs starts to support hardware physics.

Fun stuff. I have my popcorn out.
 
Nvidia got a wake up call,which they badly needed.I doubt this will do them in by any means.But they better start concentrating more on their graphics cards,because the bigger blow could come in their motherboard production,if Intel follows through on denying them a license for Nehelam.Without that,their precious SLI doesn't have much of a future.
 
ZerazaX said:
Thats the primary goal of why ATI is selling cards so low. If they regain market share to where they're even, Nvidia will have less leverage to push TWIMTBP
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You have that backwards. nvidia has more incentive to help/offer game developers to get on the TWIMTBP program if they are behind. Don't underestimate what a resource rich company can do to one near poverty. ;) Developers are probably happy to get free assistance in optimizing games, and one company clearly can afford to offer more help than the other.
------

Considering how OEM sales work, it's surprising that ATI hasn't already started to win back market share even before the HD 48xx series. DX10.1 is a bullet point that normally would give an edge, but it's meant virtually nothing in the volume parts (3400/3600 series). It's not as big a change as DX8.1 (ATI: PS1.0-1.4, NV: PS1.0-1.3) or 9.0c (SM3), and the only game that used it had the feature disabled (which was enabled to work around an ATI performance problem in DX10), so maybe that's why.

The geek midset battle may focus on GTX 260/280 and HD 4850/4870/X2 cards, but the market share war depends on the bottom heavy pyramid of parts filled mostly with low end and mid-range cards (under $60 & under $100-120).

I mentioned in another thread that AMD probably has an edge in cutting down the RV770 than nvidia has cutting down the D10U for next generation lower end parts. But it's pretty much up in the air until some performance numbers start leaking out.
 
pxc said:
The geek midset battle may focus on GTX 260/280 and HD 4850/4870/X2 cards, but the market share war depends on the bottom heavy pyramid of parts filled mostly with low end and mid-range cards (under $60 & under $100-120).
Click to expand...

This is true, but for a company coming from behind like AMD, having the best technology and great prices is extremely important. It gives them gravitas and makes people more confident to go with their other technology. Look at the height of the Athlon and Opteron. They were so much better than the competition people who were not into AMD at all were forced to go with them, and it made them money.

When you have a very compelling product, they will come.
 
I gurantee nivia will get the intel lincense because if they don't intel will be dismantled by the DOJ. Nvidia knows, they will get to keep SLI all to themselves and Intel will cave.
 
ikarinokami said:
I gurantee nivia will get the intel lincense because if they don't intel will be dismantled by the DOJ. Nvidia knows, they will get to keep SLI all to themselves and Intel will cave.
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WHY? :confused::confused:
Why in the world would the DOJ even consider to be involved in such a case?
 
Ok, If amd/ati made it through phenom and r600 nvidia will certainly make it through gt200. Nvidia has plenty of cash.
 
ikarinokami said:
I gurantee nivia will get the intel lincense because if they don't intel will be dismantled by the DOJ. Nvidia knows, they will get to keep SLI all to themselves and Intel will cave.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't know why more people mention this. Intel is under a GREAT deal of anti-trust scrutiny these days. Plus, from what I understand the law is on nVidia's side in this case as they still have a valid licensing agreement with Intel for all of the necessary technology for Nehalem anyway, though I guess there some ambiguity over if the agreement does actually cover QuickPath if my understanding is correct.

Intel is just trying to sabotage nVidia's chipset business. Intel chipsets are better overall no doubt, but if you are a fan of competition I don't think that Intel should have the chipset business all to themselves. At the same time, I do wish that nVidia would license SLI, but then that would kill their chipset business. The old catch 22.
 
Because it would be a textbook and very rare case of a blatant anti-trust violation. Basically intel would be telling its only real competitor in the market place for chipsets that it can't have a license to for it's cpus, and thus prevent competition. Since they already gave Nividia a license it becomes very difficult for them to recind that license, esp when the license holder is the only thing standing in thier way of a total monopoly. I know intel knows this, and they are just buying time, by delaying the extension of the license they gain a ahead start on nvidia, but they won't push too far, since the DOJ is already investigating them for offenses against AMD.
 
Why do threads like this pop up everytime new cards come out?

"OMG its Doomsday for so and so!"

"So and so is going out of business cause of this fo sho!"

"It's so loud I wanna dry clean my carpets with it!!"

"Said company has lost a loyal customer!!"

Some of you newbs need to calm down and enjoy new hardware.
 
The two ton gorilla that everyone keeps missing here is that ATI, even with a successfull product cycle is still a small fish against Nvidia or Intel. What is beginning to form is a new battle between Nvidia and Intel as they are the R&D champions. Intel is desperate to get their piece of the graphics pie as CPU/GPU begin to merge... Nvidia is equally driven to keep and expand their piece of the pie as super-parallel processing is gaining popularity in both graphics and scientific work.

In the very long run both companies may survive just fine doing what they do best but neither can afford to bet the farm on that. So the battle between them intensifies.

AMD... no matter how much you like them, simply does not have the size and resources to fight such a battle so they will remain the "Alternative" choice for CPUs and GPUs for the forseeable future. Always there, always driving the others to continue innovating... unless they go broke trying to keep up with the technology. I just don't have a crystal ball that can see two or three years ahead.
 
Nothing happened to ATI last year and nothing will happen to Nvidia this year.

What will happen is Nvidia won't be allowed to gouge us this year. Look for 260 to hit $300 and 280 to hit $400.
 
Apparently you folks don't follow the stock market much. Or have a memory which stretches beyond the past 4 weeks. Or have the wherewithal to realize that the enthusiast market means very little in the markets that these companies operate in.

NVIDIA is in such a strong position at the moment that they have few worries. AMD, on the other hand, is struggling, and it wouldn't be surprising to see ATI sold to raise some cash.

NVIDIA has been getting it right consistently for many months now. One positive step by ATI won't bring AMD/ATI back to the top of my "buy" list.
 
aaronjb said:
Apparently you folks don't follow the stock market much.
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The stock market is not always a reliable indicator.
Just look at GM. The last time they made profit was sometime in the last century.
Yet the stock has been flying close to $30 as recently as February.
Now they're ready to hit single digits when even the idiots in the media refuse to believe all the GM's PR BS.
Yet an average Joe is still unaware that the biggest manufacturer in the world is on a brick of bankruptcy.
I bet you didn't know too. :D
 
aaronjb said:
Apparently you folks don't follow the stock market much. Or have a memory which stretches beyond the past 4 weeks. Or have the wherewithal to realize that the enthusiast market means very little in the markets that these companies operate in.

NVIDIA is in such a strong position at the moment that they have few worries. AMD, on the other hand, is struggling, and it wouldn't be surprising to see ATI sold to raise some cash.

NVIDIA has been getting it right consistently for many months now. One positive step by ATI won't bring AMD/ATI back to the top of my "buy" list.
Click to expand...

QFT. This is the reality of the business for sure. AMD and ATI before the merger never have never been consistent, that's the problem. nVidia will respond aggressively, how successful they'll be is another matter.

Don't forget however, the GT200 is overall the fastest single GPU ever made in the consumer space. It's far from garbage. It took AMD a while to get the R600 straight, now see the results. They'll shrink it, tweak it, and make it cheaper.

So its overpriced now for sure but I don't see it as being a bad product from a purely technical aspect.
 
heatlesssun said:
So its overpriced now for sure but I don't see it as being a bad product from a purely technical aspect.
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But it's a bad product where it really counts - financially.
And it's not gonna be easy for nVidia to make it profitable.
Besides they might need to reevaluate their whole strategy and adapt the ATI's multi-GPU aproach.
The era of the single GPU monsters might be pretty much over.
 
nVidia made healthy profits during the GeForce FX era, so how can they be in trouble now? The high-end segment market share is only useful for selling their mainstream cards anyway, and in the mainstream G92 cards are cheap as hell for them to make and are very competitive with ATI's cards...
 
Nvidia will be fine. They will re-evaluate their 55nm strategy and we'll see the die-shrunk version of the GT200 series out sooner rather than later. They've recovered from a piss poor product line (FX) before and the only thing piss poor about the GT200 series is the pricing.
 
I have to disagree, i think the gt200 is an awesome product. Nvidia competetion is not ATI, it's intel. The Gt200 is them getting ready for intel. its gots the wide bus, the steam processing. I think it was the right move for them to focus on the chip first and fab second. Once the card is shrunk, it going to be an amazing stream processing machine. This is an excellent card in terms of nividia setting the ground work for thier battle in the gpupu emerging marketplace.
 
heatlesssun said:
Don't forget however, the GT200 is overall the fastest single GPU ever made in the consumer space. It's far from garbage. It took AMD a while to get the R600 straight, now see the results. They'll shrink it, tweak it, and make it cheaper.

So its overpriced now for sure but I don't see it as being a bad product from a purely technical aspect.
Click to expand...

Hah. Fastest? Care to explain how gtx 280 is the fastest single gpu on the consumer market? I mean if we look at pure computational power of modern gpus, 4870 easily comes out on top with 1.2 teraflop. So how exactly is the 280 the fastest; do you care to give me a detailed explanation thats not just how it gets highest fps in pro nvidia gpu optimized games? So far what I have seen is that it sucks up power like 9800gtx sli rigs, it tends to have overheating problems even in well ventilated rigs and because of the core die size nvidia profit margin on the 280 has to be very low. I mean looking all over the net in some games 4870 even matches the gtx 280 for performance so what am I supposed to conclude from that? Is the 280 only the fastest single gpu chip in some games but not others? Or is the 280 just ridiculously fast in games that are well optimized for nvidia line yet the card performs so so in other non optimized games? Maybe now that ati actually takes time to fix their ****ing drivers it might be easier to figure out which single core gpu is really the fastest one.
 
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