Video game sales set to fall for first time in years as industry braces for recession

Comixbooks

Comixbooks

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Video game sales are set to decline annually for the first time in years, as another industry that boomed in the coronavirus era faces the grim prospect of a recession. The global games and services market is forecast to contract 1.2% year-on-year to $188 billion in 2022, according to research from market data firm Ampere Analysis. The sector expanded 26% from 2019 to 2021, reaching a record $191 billion in size. Sales of video games have consistently grown since at least 2015, Ampere data shows. Gaming got a huge boost from Covid-19 shutdowns in 2020 as people spent more of their time indoors. The launch of next-generation consoles from Microsoft and Sony that same year also bolstered the industry’s fortunes.
However, the arrival of Microsoft’s Xbox Series X and S machines and Sony’s PlayStation 5 proved something of a double-edged sword — logistics disruptions and shortages of vital components have meant that shoppers are facing great difficulty finding any of the new consoles on store shelves or online.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/vid...ecession-proof-sales-set-to-fall-in-2022.html
 
This doesn't sound right for some reason. PS5s and Xboxes are easier to find and buy now than any previous time.
 
Comixbooks said:
Video game sales are set to decline annually for the first time in years, as another industry that boomed in the coronavirus era faces the grim prospect of a recession. The global games and services market is forecast to contract 1.2% year-on-year to $188 billion in 2022, according to research from market data firm Ampere Analysis. The sector expanded 26% from 2019 to 2021, reaching a record $191 billion in size. Sales of video games have consistently grown since at least 2015, Ampere data shows. Gaming got a huge boost from Covid-19 shutdowns in 2020 as people spent more of their time indoors. The launch of next-generation consoles from Microsoft and Sony that same year also bolstered the industry’s fortunes.
However, the arrival of Microsoft’s Xbox Series X and S machines and Sony’s PlayStation 5 proved something of a double-edged sword — logistics disruptions and shortages of vital components have meant that shoppers are facing great difficulty finding any of the new consoles on store shelves or online.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/vid...ecession-proof-sales-set-to-fall-in-2022.html
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Sales were already down because epic games was constantly giving away free games. Since there are very high quality games in the games that Epic Games gives for free, no one looks at the faces of steam-style companies. There is only one game I'm waiting for right now, and that is Hogwarts Legacy, I will buy it no matter how much the price is.
 
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I think the issue is more due to the fact that there are not many high-profile AAA releases this year compared to years prior. It seems the industry has gone back to releasing everything during the Christmas season instead of spreading it out over the year. The uncertainty in the current market situation is probably why they did so.
zelal12 said:
Sales were already down because epic games was constantly giving away free games. Since there are very high quality games in the games that Epic Games gives for free, no one looks at the faces of steam-style companies. There is only one game I'm waiting for right now, and that is Hogwarts Legacy, I will buy it no matter how much the price is.
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Epic Games Store is only 15% of the PC game market. PC gaming accounts for 19.5% of the total video gaming market, meaning Epic's "disruptions" accounts for only 2.9% of the total global gaming market. To think that Epic giving away old games in exchange for your data causing overall sales to decline is laughable.
 
Everything keeps getting pushed out. There are plenty of games I want to buy/play, but they're all coming in 2023. There are obviously games still getting released, but they're mostly cut-rate indie roguelikes, Fortnite knockoffs, and cliche JRPG's.
 
Domingo said:
Everything keeps getting pushed out. There are plenty of games I want to buy/play, but they're all coming in 2023. There are obviously games still getting released, but they're mostly cut-rate indie roguelikes, Fortnite knockoffs, and cliche JRPG's.
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I was going to say something similar. I think its simply a matter of there not being much going on in the way of releases for this year. 2022 is shaping up to be a pretty lackluster year for game releases. I'm interested in a lot of stuff too, but everything I'd be interested in playing was pushed back at least a year.
 
Nothing has come out that has interested me lately. I got tiny tina when i released on epic, still playing that. It is also summer here so ive been doing more outside stuff. I do see a bunch of good stuff coming in 2023 though.

Also the steam summer sale seemed underwhelming IMO, first one i never bought anything from. I know this isnt useful data, just my opinion.
 
its what happens when you have the first good summer after a pandemic - hardly anyone is indoors playing shitty poor-monitized free-to-pay games!

Also, the games market has been complete shit since they got away with that crap that was Cyberfuck, and tons of delays singe!
 
I wonder if this has anything to do with the EU voting to ban predatory monetization in games aimed at minors.
 
Video games are pretty recession-proof, on the demand side at least. It's a cheap form of entertainment compared to spending hundreds per month on a Cable subscription or going to the movie theater on a regular basis, etc. I think console gaming will be impacted more, because it's harder to justify buying an expensive gaming console compared to a computer that can also be used for work.
 
GotNoRice said:
Video games are pretty recession-proof, on the demand side at least. It's a cheap form of entertainment compared to spending hundreds per month on a Cable subscription or going to the movie theater on a regular basis, etc. I think console gaming will be impacted more, because it's harder to justify buying an expensive gaming console compared to a computer that can also be used for work.
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Mobile gaming is expected to take a big hit in Europe and China. The EU just passed some legislation and China is cracking down on their mobile game companies as they see it as a social problem.
 
Answer: See;Shit Tier Game Releases

Same thing that happened with movies when everything went 'overly political, overly social or overly repetitive'........the younger generation thinks of movie theaters (at least where I am) as a boomer-era thing, i've got teens and neither of them GAF about any movie release, ever. now that games are the 'new movies' games are hitting the point of being hopelessly repetitive, short campaigns because they take time to make, so they default to the same old, same old multiplayer modes......people are going "Is this Peak Gaming?" I think.......if they spent less time on cutscenes I wouldn't complain, I'm looking at you every COD release for years.....
 
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whateverer said:
Also, the games market has been complete shit since they got away with that crap that was Cyberfuck, and tons of delays singe!
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Cyberpunk - despite its initial launch issues - is up there among my candidates best game of the decade.

It was totally not ready for release when it was, but I didn't play it until a year after launch, and by that time it was a really good game.

Immersive large environment, good story, and great graphics to tie it all together and make it suck you in more.

I'm still looking forward to the additional story DLC that has been promised.
 
I feel the answer is more apple and laws hitting ads revenue on mobile + competletely abnormal Q3-Q4 2020 to Q1 2022 or so level of demand (expanded 26% from 2019 to 2021 seem like a lot).

Extremelly strong US dollar will not help revenues looked in dollar either.

If those estimate were correct:
im-274254?width=700&height=464.jpg


Has for some of the specific complain about some games, I am not sure if 2022 will be much different/worst than 2020-2021 in that regard when it was booming, so I am not sure how much it can be a factor.
 
Well, we are actually expecting a market recession in the not too distant future. It's not a certain thing, but it is highly probable.

The treasury yield curves inverted a couple of days ago, and that is generally a pretty reliable sign of a recession being on the way.

Between that, and the inflation pinching peoples budgets it doesn't sound like a stretch that people might decide to spend less money on games. That said, if we do wind up with a recession, it might not be like recessions of the past, since we still have a rather hot labor market. Huge unemployment impacts on spending seem less likely because of that.

I'd agree that there are a lot of terrible games out there, but it has also been a bigger market than in the past. If you don't like free to play lootbox crap, there are still plenty of other games to play.

On the one hand, during recessions people might save on more expensive things, and maybe then gaming is the cheaper alternative. That said, in tight economic times, maybe kids won't get daddy's credit card to buy "limited edition" pants for their Fortnite character. So who knows...
 
There's also the fact that the pandemic greatly inflated numbers, LOTS of bored people out there turned to gaming in one form or another and an abnormal amount of money was spent over the various lockdowns, that level of growth isn't sustainable, nor is it normal. It was bound to come down a little regardless of the changes in Europe and China to how monetization in games is allowed to proceed.
 
Were going to have another video game crash like in the 1980's. And, were already in a recession.
 
Krenum said:
And, were already in a recession.
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The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. It might be coming, but we haven't seen that yet. We haven't seen any month over month GDP decline yet.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. It might be coming, but we haven't seen that yet. We haven't seen any month over month GDP decline yet.
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It is a bit different than that,
recession:
: a period of reduced economic activity
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity

Many people use that rules of thumb to call one, but that is more we were in a recession and now it is called has one, there is always a delay before the numbers get out.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Q1 2022 was -1.6
Q2 ended up in june, so maybe we are currently officially in a recession using the two consecutive quarters of declining GDP right now it is just there is a delay between the end of june and the GPD numbers for june to be calculated.
 
LukeTbk said:
It is a bit different than that,
recession:
: a period of reduced economic activity
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity

Many people use that rules of thumb to call one, but that is more we were in a recession and now it is called has one, there is always a delay before the numbers get out.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Q1 2022 was -1.6
Q2 ended up in june, so maybe we are currently officially in a recession using the two consecutive quarters of declining GDP right now it is just there is a delay between the end of june and the GPD numbers for june to be calculated.
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That's how I understood it too.
 
LukeTbk said:
It is a bit different than that,
recession:
: a period of reduced economic activity
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity

Many people use that rules of thumb to call one, but that is more we were in a recession and now it is called has one, there is always a delay before the numbers get out.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Q1 2022 was -1.6
Q2 ended up in june, so maybe we are currently officially in a recession using the two consecutive quarters of declining GDP right now it is just there is a delay between the end of june and the GPD numbers for june to be calculated.
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I just googled some monhtly GDP charts and don't see a drop in quarterly GDP since 2020 when the pandemic first hit. There was a small one month dip in Febryary 2021, but it doesn't look like it would have translated into a full quarter decline. I don't see what you are talking about for Q1. It looks higher to me.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
I just googled some monhtly GDP charts and don't see a drop in quarterly GDP since 2020 when the pandemic first hit. There was a small one month dip in Febryary 2021, but it doesn't look like it would have translated into a full quarter decline. I don't see what you are talking about for Q1. It looks higher to me.
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You need to look for adjusted for inflation GDP or Real GDP type of value, GDP being usually in dollar it can grow of 1% but if the inflation during that quarter was 2% it has contracted by 1.

If you want to look at whole quarter
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

I imagine that ideally one would adjust for population change has well, but when you look at a small amount of time like a quarter, it is probably minimal.
 
LukeTbk said:
It is a bit different than that,
recession:
: a period of reduced economic activity
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity

Many people use that rules of thumb to call one, but that is more we were in a recession and now it is called has one, there is always a delay before the numbers get out.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Q1 2022 was -1.6
Q2 ended up in june, so maybe we are currently officially in a recession using the two consecutive quarters of declining GDP right now it is just there is a delay between the end of june and the GPD numbers for june to be calculated.
Click to expand...
Zarathustra[H] said:
I just googled some monhtly GDP charts and don't see a drop in quarterly GDP since 2020 when the pandemic first hit. There was a small one month dip in Febryary 2021, but it doesn't look like it would have translated into a full quarter decline. I don't see what you are talking about for Q1. It looks higher to me.
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So, to follow up with official figures from FRED:

1657219489729.png


Looks like nothing but up since the beginning of 2021.

1657219613246.png


Looking at quarter by quarter growth, Q1 2022 is certainly lower than the preceding quarter, but at 6.6% it's not negative.

What is the source for your -1.6 data?
 
LukeTbk said:
You need to look for adjusted for inflation GDP or Real GDP type of value, GDP being usually in dollar it can grow of 1% but if the inflation during that quarter was 2% it has contracted by 1.

If you want to look at whole quarter
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

I imagine that ideally one would adjust for population change has well, but when you look at a small amount of time like a quarter, it is probably minimal.
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Ah, got it. You are adjusting for inflation.
 
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Zarathustra[H] said:
Ah, got it. You are adjusting for inflation.
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And it is not the only criteria for the official declaration by the government, there is an actual group that the government listen too, they usually always simply use the 2 quarter of negative real GDP, but they could at one point decide to break the tradition because they look at many factor

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2003/june/recession-definition-indicators/
real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale retail sales adjusted for price changes, employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. But there is no fixed rule about which measures they use in their process or how they are weighted in the committee's decisions.
 
LukeTbk said:
And it is not the only criteria for the official declaration by the government, there is an actual group that the government listen too, they usually always simply use the 2 quarter of negative real GDP, but they could at one point decide to break the tradition because they look at many factor

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2003/june/recession-definition-indicators/
real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale retail sales adjusted for price changes, employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. But there is no fixed rule about which measures they use in their process or how they are weighted in the committee's decisions.
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It is interesting. One could argue that the GDP was inflated prior to this, as seen in the overheated job market, and this is just representative of a return towards normal.

And I think that is the important part. I don't think we will see massive declines in consumer spending (like what might impact the gaming market) unless there are associated job losses, and with employers still screaming for labor, that seems unlikely unless things get A LOT worse.

So if it is a recession it is a funny recession :p
 
Fewer tentpole games and pandemic recovery are the more likely factors. Most anything else is projection at this stage.
 
Doesn't help that everyone is trying to again make nothing but multiplayer games. The video game industry has a cycle of this as multiplayer games have the potential for high return and low investment, but people get sick of multiplayer and go straight back to single player. Look at Diablo Immortal which is doing well now, no thanks to idiot YouTubers spending thousands of dollars on the game just to prove to people the game sucks. But then the game is doing financially well so of course the game industry is going to copy this and fail. Diablo Immortal will fail once YouTubers go homeless for pouring all their money into Diablo Immortal. Mean time we're cursed with not only multiplayer games but shitty ones too.

z8hvCc9.jpg
 
DukenukemX said:
Doesn't help that everyone is trying to again make nothing but multiplayer games. The video game industry has a cycle of this as multiplayer games have the potential for high return and low investment, but people get sick of multiplayer and go straight back to single player. Look at Diablo Immortal which is doing well now, no thanks to idiot YouTubers spending thousands of dollars on the game just to prove to people the game sucks. But then the game is doing financially well so of course the game industry is going to copy this and fail. Diablo Immortal will fail once YouTubers go homeless for pouring all their money into Diablo Immortal. Mean time we're cursed with not only multiplayer games but shitty ones too.

View attachment 489920
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Diablo immortal is performing very poorly compared to other major mobile releases, actually. I agree with you on the whole though.
 
DukenukemX said:
Doesn't help that everyone is trying to again make nothing but multiplayer games
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Maybe it is how little I ever played multiplayers game in my life and being shielded by them, but is 2022 particularly multiplayer heavy versus previous recent time ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_in_video_games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_in_video_games

Does not seem to be the case at all to me

And if so are they going to do particularly poor versious the previous years ?

I feel that sometime people have an issue, they see a news and apply their issue 2 it. The many Resident Evils games, a lot of Nintendo, Cyberpunk, Spider-Man, Monster Hunter, Flight Simulator, God of war/Assassin Creed/Star wars fallen order/Horizon Forbidden West/Hitman 3/A Plague Tale: Innocence/Control/Elden Ring, etc...
 
LukeTbk said:
Maybe it is how little I ever played multiplayers game in my life and being shielded by them, but is 2022 particularly multiplayer heavy versus previous recent time ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_in_video_games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_in_video_games

Does not seem to be the case at all to me
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There's a lot of multiplayer games that came out recently. Besides Diablo :vomit: Immortal you have Genshin Impact, New World, and Lost Ark. Oh and OverWatch 2 came out but it's just OverWatch 1 with a bigger number. I count Diablo Immortal because it's also on PC.
And if so are they going to do particularly poor versious the previous years ?
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We are reading that maybe the video game industry isn't doing so hot. I look at Elden Ring as the game of the year and it pissed off so many game developers. Going so far as to mock it's graphics, it's UI, and difficulty. Yet the game was praised and sold like gangbusters. I think the game industry looked at Elden Ring and got pissed that a good game actually made good money. Not just that but a good single player game.

EA made it clear that they aren't doing single player and mock those who look forward to them.
 
LukeTbk said:
And it is not the only criteria for the official declaration by the government, there is an actual group that the government listen too, they usually always simply use the 2 quarter of negative real GDP, but they could at one point decide to break the tradition because they look at many factor

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2003/june/recession-definition-indicators/
real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale retail sales adjusted for price changes, employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. But there is no fixed rule about which measures they use in their process or how they are weighted in the committee's decisions.
Click to expand...


How do you like that, topical as ever, today's Marketplace covered what makes for a recession and who gets to decide.

 
DukenukemX said:
EA made it clear that they aren't doing single player and mock those who look forward to them.
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Well it depend how do we define single players, one of EA biggest title is Fifa, when I was young that felt more like a single player title, maybe people now only multiplay on those too. I would not use intern social media jokes necessarily has a company wide policy.

Dead space remake, Jedi fallen order 2, Formula 1, Madden, Need for speed, PGA, Dragon age, Mass Effect, I could obviously be wrong but they feel like can play solo enough type of games.

DukenukemX said:
There's a lot of multiplayer games that came out recently. Besides Diablo :vomit: Immortal you have Genshin Impact, New World, and Lost Ark. Oh and OverWatch 2 came out but it's just OverWatch 1 with a bigger number. I count Diablo Immortal because it's also on PC.
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Would that be a special amount of them since World of Warcraft ? Maybe I am just sounding stupid not having following multiplayer game that much if at all, but I do not feel that we are in specially heavy time now for them in the last 10 year's, specially when talking about the 190 billions global market that will have a giant amount of loto/freetoplay mobile, for older woman, etc... games.
 
because people are going back to work, dont have as much time to play games
 
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