illram
[H]ard|Gawd
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^^Tim Cook quote fail
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Tim Cook Declares The End Of The PC
- Thread starter HardOCP News
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StoleMyOwnCar
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My problem with you guys and this general type of discussion is this: how do you actually know what the "average" is? Everyone keeps talking about who the average or what the average PC user is, but no one has anything to back that up. Obviously on here we have a terribly low opinion of not only everyone but ourselves, but ... well anyone that disagrees with us even on here.
Moving on, regarding "computer clueless" people... you folks realize that they don't buy things based on what they need and don't need, right? If they're truly clueless, they can't tell the difference between an iPad and a Surface Pro, realistically. To them it means nothing. That's why brand name appeal and such are so major. They're more likely to take the advice of someone that seems like he knows something. They're also likely to have goals that they want to accomplish with a new advice, but they don't know how to go about that. They'll go with the first thing (that they can afford) that anyone tells them will work. The more word you have out there, the more likely your product will be the first thing they will stumble across.
That's why the spread is going to be significantly more different than you guys are painting it simply on the basis that they are clueless. Cluelessness is entropy. They'll wonder over and be like "hay, I wanna play this game". But they don't know how to do it. Maybe they'll ask around on Facebook or something about how they should go about this, and someone will suggest they build a computer and they'll gradually go with it. Maybe they'll see some ads for Alienware and it'll appeal to them and they'll just gobble it up. Maybe they'll buy some 2k gaming laptop they don't really need because they don't care. Or maybe they'll want to run Office or do menial tasks. Similar steps will happen, and they'll end up with something that satisfies them but is not necessarily optimal
I have this case, lol. It's a nice case, and plenty of room for everything. Absolutely massive. Like it's even bigger than it looks in that picture...
Moving on, regarding "computer clueless" people... you folks realize that they don't buy things based on what they need and don't need, right? If they're truly clueless, they can't tell the difference between an iPad and a Surface Pro, realistically. To them it means nothing. That's why brand name appeal and such are so major. They're more likely to take the advice of someone that seems like he knows something. They're also likely to have goals that they want to accomplish with a new advice, but they don't know how to go about that. They'll go with the first thing (that they can afford) that anyone tells them will work. The more word you have out there, the more likely your product will be the first thing they will stumble across.
That's why the spread is going to be significantly more different than you guys are painting it simply on the basis that they are clueless. Cluelessness is entropy. They'll wonder over and be like "hay, I wanna play this game". But they don't know how to do it. Maybe they'll ask around on Facebook or something about how they should go about this, and someone will suggest they build a computer and they'll gradually go with it. Maybe they'll see some ads for Alienware and it'll appeal to them and they'll just gobble it up. Maybe they'll buy some 2k gaming laptop they don't really need because they don't care. Or maybe they'll want to run Office or do menial tasks. Similar steps will happen, and they'll end up with something that satisfies them but is not necessarily optimal
I have this case, lol. It's a nice case, and plenty of room for everything. Absolutely massive. Like it's even bigger than it looks in that picture...
Dr. Righteous
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You know you have to realize that one day, sitting and typing on a keyboard, using a mouse and viewing a stationary monitor will be viewed as archaic as a typewriter is today.
The point I was making is that all these technologies already exist. They will come together eventually in the form of this wearable PC. If you don't like it and resist change you are just as techno-phobic as elderly people that still prefer to use a typewriter and white-out.
This is what I think the future holds. And I will tell you why.
I was a kid in the 70s and I remember the the smart people of the day predicting by the year 2000 and beyond we would have space stations that average people lived and worked in. A career in a "spacing industry" would be a valid career path. Trips to space and to the moon would be common as catching a plane. A colony on the moon was a given since American have already been there several times.
None of it happen. But what did happen was a revolution in processing information; computers and the underlying technologies. The scope of this was completely missed by the prognosticators of the 70s. We are no closer to the "flying car" future they predicted back then. But we have surpassed the forecasts in unexpected ways.
With hindsight being 20/20 I see no reason for this trend to fall on it's face now.
MavericK
Zero Cool
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I blame that primarily on lack of innovation by processor manufacturers...no reason to upgrade when a machine from 5-7 years ago works fine.
You must not have been reading a lot of sci-fi books--if you consider them future speculations they were all over the place, from 'not much a future' to 'gee wiz space stuff' to 'robots and computers do everything' and everything in between.
While there was some hype about Skylab and stuff a lot of people were criticizing the lack of human space exploration and progress by the mid to late 70's, the excitement of the moon landing were over and the problems of trying for Mars were very apparent (like the cost). I remember reading a paper in a scholarly journey in 1977 on how computers would never be able to play grand-master level chess, and laughing at them along with my computer geek buddies we, and many others, could see how fast the industry was moving even then.
Long term "it will be like this" predictions are seldom accurate and they tend to cover a large gamut of possibilities: you seem to be misremembering the 70's. Of course some will get it right by luck: I found some nice drawing from 1900 of what 2000 would be like, while off in detail they did have a TV like device (playing an opera with people holding 1900 style phone ear pieces to their heads to hear it, but oh well). They were also full of airships (well ok we went the airplane route but hey the point was a lot of air travel). Some things were a complete miss of course, horseless carriages don't seem to have caught on and people got around on moving sidewalks (everywhere not just in a few isolated places) and even moving buildings.
Personally I predict the demise of the PC, the rise of the PC and the status quo of the PC in both the near and far future.
heatlesssun
Extremely [H]
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It's always funny that they have to make devices more like a PC in order to "replace" the PC, to the extent that the only ones who ever seem to succeed end up essentially just creating another type of PC. How exactly does that mean the PC is dying?
Very good observation. Obviously the world of Windows PC has well known problems, one that Apple spent a number of years highlighting with their "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" campaign. Still, Windows PCs have a number of strengths particularly in the area of productivity. It's no mistake that Apple lifted ideas from Tablet PCs for the iPad Pro while marketing it as a laptop replacement.
My definition of clueless was a bit tighter, to people that don't see any need for something better than a tablet. I'd put the split at closer to 50/50
My kid and most her friends have computers for school work and games. Ever try writing a multi page report on a touch screen, or playing Minecraft on a tablet?
The split changes if you consider work. At my office, other than email/calendar, nobody does any real office work on their phones/tablets. It's all done on desktops or laptops, and I don't see any significant changes coming. I have been deploying more laptops, including ones that fold into a tablet form, but that's just so they can take them to meetings or home if needed. However they all run a full version of Windows.
Dr. Righteous
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I don't "mis-remember" anything. Question is did you get your summation of the '70s from a TV show?
What I said was exactly true. Everyone was sure of a future that included space flight as common as catching a jet plane. None of it happened; but they missed the information revolution completely.
And based on that my ideas of how "personal computers" will evolve is NOT wild speculation. It is the developing trend.
This thread was sparked because yet again, some "insider" forecast the end of the desktop PC. I'm making the point that one day soon it will seem like an archaic just as a typewriter does today. That day is not 100 years from now; but probably less than a decade away.
And HOW an anyone from 1900 even imagine like today? The diode vacuum tube was'n t invented until 1904. The triode tube wasn't invented until 1906. That was the first amplifier device and electronic switch. They didn't understand the ramifications of electronics then; all such speculation 100 years out was useless.
I'm talking about technologies that are here and now and what they might evolve into. Why does that seem so weird?
Why is everyone so void of vision and imagination?
Sure, I'm techno-phobic because I prefer a keyboard over a touch screen.
It took a long time for the computer to completely replace the typewriter. We only got rid of the last typewriter at the office a couple years ago (it was used on the rare occasion someone needed to manually address an envelope.
In order for keyboards and mice go away, we will have to have fully interactive computers, something on the level of the Hal 9000 or Kitt. If that happens, it will result in a complete upheaval of the workplace, and it's likely most office workers will no longer be needed. So, no, workers will not be using "wearable" computers at work, because if computers get that advanced, the workers will no longer have a job.
Baring some unexpected break through, I also don't see this happening any time soon. In fact I doubt we will see anything close to this in the next 20 years. Hopefully I'll be retired well before then, so it won't really mater that much to me.
I just wonder if I'll need to tip the robot that cleans the room when I'm on a cruise
35 years ago computers had screens and keyboards. Yes, it's like comparing a model T to a modern car, but the only significant new item is the mouse/touchpad.
infinitywulfy
Limp Gawd
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*facepalms* How many times has the PC/PC market been declared dead? And honestly, most of those were said by much better and smarter people than Mr. Cook... And the PC is still ticking along quite happily at a lower price and faster speeds than Apples.
We still had one on the hospital HR last year for the same purpose... and they probably still do as I've moved on since then
Anyway, there's a really nice prologue chapter in Michael Crichton's "Timeline", which while more about general scientific research than technology, is still relevant here. It says how at the end of the few last centuries.(incl the one we just witnessed), scientist believe there will be no major discoveries to be found in the following century since all the major areas have already been discovered. In other words the evolution of science will just be defined better and smaller advancements are to be made, in steady course of action. Which, is of course short sighted, and as proven incorrect way of looking at it. Ignoring the history, or rather dismissing it, and only living on the present (or even at just looking in the near past) makes predicictions of the future either too pessimistic or optimistic.
Those mentioned 1900 predictions for 2000 have always been fascinating to me.
StoleMyOwnCar
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I've always wondered if we're hitting a biological wall when it comes to innovation. That is, whether our brains aren't keeping up with our rate of technological progress, and that is why we can't make huge breakthroughs. That being said, we've been making breakthroughs, it's just that they're kind of under wraps. Still, I think some sort of eugenics and advanced biological studies might do humanity some good in the long run...
The other issue is that we're too focused on economics atm, imo. That is, it's no longer about discovering things for their own sake or furthering science itself. Like, discovering things which may further science and produce a product down the line, but only eventually. Things which are intermediate steps towards making huge breakthrough products. It feels to me like we're too focused on trying to slowly improve technology so that we can have optimal sales and distribution of existing technology... with small incremental improvements or changes to differentiate brands. That's where all the money is. And where all the money is, that's where most of the people are. There are a few funded research institutes, but how are we doing compared to ages ago? It feels like there's just no desperate drive towards innovation lately, as if people feel we've hit some happy medium. Or maybe that's just the common man.
But then again this may simply be a common contemporary perspective, one that has been thought many times before, only to be proven wrong with time. I can only hope that's the case. I just feel some melancholy when predicting where we will get to within my lifetime.
The other issue is that we're too focused on economics atm, imo. That is, it's no longer about discovering things for their own sake or furthering science itself. Like, discovering things which may further science and produce a product down the line, but only eventually. Things which are intermediate steps towards making huge breakthrough products. It feels to me like we're too focused on trying to slowly improve technology so that we can have optimal sales and distribution of existing technology... with small incremental improvements or changes to differentiate brands. That's where all the money is. And where all the money is, that's where most of the people are. There are a few funded research institutes, but how are we doing compared to ages ago? It feels like there's just no desperate drive towards innovation lately, as if people feel we've hit some happy medium. Or maybe that's just the common man.
But then again this may simply be a common contemporary perspective, one that has been thought many times before, only to be proven wrong with time. I can only hope that's the case. I just feel some melancholy when predicting where we will get to within my lifetime.
M76
[H]F Junkie
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There is a big difference between declining sales and being dead. I already mentioned one reason for declining sales, but another one is the lack of innovation and competition in the CPU market. Between 1995 and 2005 I upgraded my computer at least once a year, but often twice. Now I can use the same CPU/MB for 3-4 years easy.
Apple really pooped on the functionality of the ipad pro. At that size and that price point, it needs more functionality, like that of a full os. I have an ipad and I used it for certain things, but when I needed to do work, I used my laptop. Now with my surface pro 3, my Thinkpad and ipad have been collecting dust. If I were inclined to throw money at apple, I'd rather spend the money on a new laptop. They need to revamp osx and introduce touch/tablet functionality into it. With Win10 and their surface line, MS has done a great job. Yeah, their app store still blows, but it matters much less when you can install the full software.
Until they come up with a way to think everything into the computer we will still have keyboards and mice. There just isn't any replacement for it. You can try using holographic keyboards on a flat surface or even VR 3d holographic like stuff in open air but with out the tactile feeling in will be very cumbersome. I seriously doubt many people could type any where near as fast on flat surface with lasers making a holographic image as you can with a real keyboard. And voice stuff would be stupid, imagine an office filled with cubicles and everyone is talking to the PC creating emails. They might as well just call someone and leave a voice mail.
Also even though VR stuff is pretty neat you still need a way to interact. Until someone makes a holodeck that can create and manipulate physical objects we will all be sitting down at a desk or couch of some sort playing games with some kind of controller.
Keyboards and mice becoming archaic is a long way away. Type writers lasted over 100 years and they only became obsolete because their functionality was added to computers. In the work place many computers are just fancy typewriters for many people. When ever people say all these things will be gone and replaced by something I always think of work and how product X can replace product Y. Most of the time it can't.
heatlesssun
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Sometimes I can appreciate the idea that Apple is trying to strip away complexity and focus on the essentials of an experience. And then sometimes I think they use this as an excuse more than a reason. The iPad Pro for instance clearly incorporates ideas from other platforms and it's similarities to the Surface Pro have been noted even by many of Apple's more supportive folks that don't care much for Microsoft.
As far as the iPad Pro replacing a laptop, it can to roughly the same extent that most any tablet could, with its size, incorporation of keyboard docks and covers with a connector and addition of split screen multitasking in iOS 9 take it a step further. Then I'm looking at some video reviews with the iPad Pro attached to the keyboard cover in a vertical position and see people typing and inking and touching the screen and wonder "Didn't people scream about how being forced to use a vertically mounted touch screen an UI failure what many declared in Windows 8.x?" And one was never forced to use touch in Windows 8.x, not from lack of mouse pointing device.
But the world is big enough for simplified devices like the iPad Pro as laptops and more fully featured devices like the Surface line which can also be used as desktop replacements with it's docking capabilities. The main issue for a device like an iPad Pro as a desktop replacement is that it's a pretty expensive for devices that are often cheaper and more flexible.
Riptide_NVN
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They want to pursue that at my employer however streaming video is something we use and have had problems due to bandwidth constraints at some of the remote sites. Therefore at the moment it is a stillborn idea. Eventually when the bandwidth issue isn't a problem they may be able to migrate 80-90% of the desktops over to thin clients.
Riptide_NVN
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lol me either. I'm not so sure that tech is going to be a smash hit.
Now holodeck ala startship Enterprise OTOH... THAT would be a smash hit.
No shit. I think my wallet has a hell of a louder voice on this issue then this guy's tonsils do.
I have a feeling that if such were ever come to reality, it wouldn't be so much of like TNG holodeck... but like in DS9 holosuite where you pay to overpriced sums of latinum to little troll Quark (Apple?) every time you wish to use it
No I didn't get this from a TV show if you had bothered to read what I wrote you would know this. The mention of the ideas from 1900 was an example of how predictions can go right and wrong. Your blanket statement of predictions made in the 1970's is just plain wrong and rather silly.
Isn't that cute, Apple's CEO has declared the end of the PC.
I think if youre looking at a PC, why would you buy a PC anymore? No really, why would you buy one?, asks Tim Cook, Apples chief executive, who has just flown into Britain for the launch of the iPad Pro.
Why would anyone buy a fucking iPad Pro for work? Looks like Tim drank his own koolaid. Enterprises:
- Love applications only coming from an approved app store controlled by a third party.
- Appreciate Apple's lack of Active Directory like management abilities.
- Aren't concerned with their clients/customers having compatible software to read files they send external partners.
- Like spending resources training people to use new software that accomplishes the same tasks as the old software.
- Like paying for new software that accomplishes the same tasks as the old software.
- Always replace the OSes on mission critical systems with the newest version on the day the update rolls out. This is why there are no more 2008 server installations in existence.
Tim Cook is just filling his company obligation to trump up his own companies products. I doubt he believes the shit he's spewing.