#### erek

##### Supreme [H]ardness

- Joined
- Dec 19, 2005

- Messages
- 5,511

*"For 2021, Intel is preparing 10+++ as well as a new process node (7nm), and we know this to be the case given that Intel has a contract with the Aurora supercomputer for Argonne, which is due to have Intel’s new Ponte Vecchio HPC accelerator inside, which is partly built on 7nm. That system has to be delivered in 2021, or at least Intel has to hit a number of minimum milestones for that system in 2021, so we might see the first inklings of 7nm at that time. The slide above also says 7nm on EUV.*

Assuming all goes to plan, we have 2022 with 7+, then 2023 with 7++ and another new process node, believed to be 5nm. This is expected to be the inflection point with TSMC’s 3nm in terms of density, which could suggest that this is where GAA technology is likely to be.

Going beyond that, 2024 is 5+, then 2025 is 5++ and 3nm. If I were a betting man, and I predicted that Intel’s timeline over the course of five years might slip the best part of 6-12 months, then 2025 might still be in the 5nm / 5+ era. So with Dr. Mayberry saying within 5 years for high volume, the smart money would be GAA coming at 5nm, in 2023-2024."

Assuming all goes to plan, we have 2022 with 7+, then 2023 with 7++ and another new process node, believed to be 5nm. This is expected to be the inflection point with TSMC’s 3nm in terms of density, which could suggest that this is where GAA technology is likely to be.

Going beyond that, 2024 is 5+, then 2025 is 5++ and 3nm. If I were a betting man, and I predicted that Intel’s timeline over the course of five years might slip the best part of 6-12 months, then 2025 might still be in the 5nm / 5+ era. So with Dr. Mayberry saying within 5 years for high volume, the smart money would be GAA coming at 5nm, in 2023-2024."

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1586...anoribbon-transistors-in-volume-in-five-years