The Windows Era Is Over

H

HardOCP News

[H] News
Joined
Dec 31, 1969
Messages
0
Oh no! The Windows era is over! This is not a repeat from 1986, 1991, 1996, 2002, 2006 or 2012. :rolleyes:

On the earnings call, Microsoft admitted that traditional PC form factors, Windows’ home turf, are in a state of terminal decline. Demand among business users was up only moderately, and by Microsoft’s own estimates, consumer demand declined by over 20%. That it isn't to say that Microsoft is ready to abandon Windows -- far from it. Management still believes Windows has a future. I disagree.
Click to expand...
 
Ballmer:
Hurry more tiles! Push the app store! Require all future software run on DX11.2! End support for Win7! Battlestations!
 
He thinks Google will displace MS with Android :eek: ... consumers might be willing to give up the PC form factor (desktops and laptops) but enterprise will not go with Android or Chrome for desktops/laptops ... I definitely want whatever this guy is drinking :D
 
kbrickley said:
He thinks Google will displace MS with Android :eek: ... consumers might be willing to give up the PC form factor (desktops and laptops) but enterprise will not go with Android or Chrome for desktops/laptops ... I definitely want whatever this guy is drinking :D
Click to expand...

The Enterprise isn't leaving Microsoft anytime soon. If anything you'll see more Apple products.
 
+1 on the enterprise posts. No way that's going away anytime soon.

Maybe in 20-30 years... :D
 
I dunno what you'd replace it with in businesses or other large enterprise networks. Apple is still super consumer-oriented and, until Google stops being creepy with data collection, it's pretty much a non-starter in businesses. Linux is great for servers, data centers, and hugenormously powerful systems, but it's not quite good enough or as easy to centrally manage a buncha workstations running it.
 
Cause heaven forbid, you don't see businesses anymore still running Windows 98/NT/2k/XP/03 :D
 
JeiPArx.png
 
What that chart fails to measure is how many of that is devices being added in versus replaced. I bet you the number of Windows PC in the wild is still growing, mind you slow, but all those Android devices are people who have never owned a PC just getting a cheap tablet for the first time (like my grandmother just did and now uses to Skype).
 
I have never understood why any company would use windows in the first place for business. Linux for business and windows for gaming and media.
 
Linux and opensource freeware aka software is teh future and for games Thanks Valve :D
 
yelsewshane said:
I have never understood why any company would use windows in the first place for business. Linux for business and windows for gaming and media.
Click to expand...

Where have you been since, oh lets just say the late 80s? :p

Its a fairly open platform with support or certs and support by the company that publishes it. In theory I'll give you that Linux makes a better business platform, in application for $200-300 you can get a PC with monitor and Windows XP already set up with tons of companies that have supported the platform for almost 30 years. Linux, if you have the money to through at it, for the experts, programmers and specialized software can be customized to almost any need...if you have the money for it and then keep the experts, programmers and vendors that sold you the specialized software to keep supporting it.
 
BladeVenom said:
JeiPArx.png
Click to expand...

Um, that's just numbers. Who actually uses their phone or tablet for regular web surfing and news reading? I can't imagine it would be too many with those tiny screens and tiny print. Who uses their phones or tablets for watching TV shows or movies? Again, those tiny screens tell me not many. Those that do must be masochists. I use mine once in a while for looking things up on the internet, but not nearly as often as my PCs.

As for movies and TV shows, I use a PC attached to my TV. It gives me the greatest flexibility. I can watch from BluRay, Hulu, Netflix, Amazon prime, or the TV antenna. It's great. Sure, a TV/streaming appliance or smart TV could give me many of the same things, but I've found I can't watch many of my favorite shows on those because Hulu "doesn't have the rights to stream this show on a mobile platform." Granted, that's just asinine of the content providers, but that's the way it is. Also, I don't do that much watching TV. It's a total waste. Both your body and your brain just idle and waste away while watching TV, so I keep it down to about 6 hours per week. We have enough stupid people in this world as it is. TV just manufactures more. Try to avoid it, people.

As for games, yeah, Angry Birds and Suduko are great for waiting at the barber shop or the doctor's office, but it really doesn't do well for at home gaming time, and it really isn't too mentally challenging. Those part time games are just mild time wasters. Home gaming, like WoW, are good for replacing TV watching, and keeping my brain in good shape while I'm at it. I'm not wasting my brain power watching TV most of the time. While, yes, my body is idling away, at least my brain isn't. It's a much better use of my time. It keeps me thinking, and that keeps me smarter than the masses of the general population.

On top of all that, those tiny screens would be nothing but a horrid obstruction to actually doing my job. My current work laptop has a 14" screen, and it is so horribly tiny I can hardly do my work away from my dock. It's good enough for a meeting, but not for my actual work.

Nothing is going to replace my PC. No tablet or phone is going to ever be good enough to do my home gaming or show watching. They would be absolutely horrible for my work. Smartphones and Tablets have their place, but these idiots that think they're going to replace PCs are just out of their minds.

MS's sales and the PC sales are down because a lot of people don't like Windows 8. Also, Intel, being the sole provider of PC processors these days, since AMD isn't putting forth anything that actually competes, has been stalling the performance climb of PC processors. There really isn't any reason to buy a new PC if you have a 3 year old Sandy Bridge, or even Nahalem, system. It's really that simple. If MS were to backtrack a bit and get rid of this stupid tablet interface, they'd get a lot of sales back. If Intel were to actually release something that pushes performance forward, they'd have some good sales growth. Right now, PC sales are stagnating because we're really going nowhere. Why is it these so called 'experts' can't see this?
 
yelsewshane said:
I have never understood why any company would use windows in the first place for business. Linux for business and windows for gaming and media.
Click to expand...

Essentially every bit of specialized software is only compatible with windows and not compatible with linux. I'm not sure what field you're in, but in my field windows computers are essential.
 
helloha1 said:
Essentially every bit of specialized software is only compatible with windows and not compatible with linux. I'm not sure what field you're in, but in my field windows computers are essential.
Click to expand...

Yup. Linux only dwarfs Windows when it comes to the servers, which is only a fraction of the overall enterprise market.
 
Maybe not today but Windows' end is coming.

A Linux desktop will do everything a Windows desktop will, even most games and "Windows specific" applications (with wine).

The thing is when large companies are still using 13 year odd versions of Windows of course switching to another platform it's going to be very slowly adopted.
 
RangerXML said:
What that chart fails to measure is how many of that is devices being added in versus replaced. I bet you the number of Windows PC in the wild is still growing, mind you slow, but all those Android devices are people who have never owned a PC just getting a cheap tablet for the first time (like my grandmother just did and now uses to Skype).
Click to expand...

I nominate RangerXML's post as the most insightful one in this thread.

People still need and want PC's (either desktops or laptops), and that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Most PC users still use Windows, so unless they switch to Linux or Apple or keep using XP/7 after security updates end, Microsoft Windows still has a future.

However, there's a reason the sales and marketshare numbers don't reflect that: People just aren't replacing their PC's or adding new ones to their household (or business) as fast as they're adding and replacing newfangled mobile gadgets. They don't need to. The average family might be sharing a single PC (or a few) these days, but they're replacing their numerous Android/iOS cell phones every two years (incentivized by contracts), and they're adding tablets to the mix as well. Part of this is because phones and tablets are advancing more quickly than PC's, part of it is because they're less easily shared, and part of it is because they're treated more disposably.

Not only does this high sale/replacement rate contribute to huge sales figures, but it can also inflate Android/iOS's marketshare figures, since the number of devices sold far exceeds the number of devices still in use (to a far greater extent than PC's).
 
Microsoft is the greatest threat to Microsoft. They've been on this quest recently to ignore the customer at best and actively piss them off at worst. .. in all divisions!

Every time they disrupt their user base, it causes an opening for them (users) to explore other options. Ex. the response to Windows 8, introduction of XBone not talking about games (TV TV TV), even the discontinuation of Technet. They all give users a chance to stop and think about alternatives.

They're the biggest game in town, but what's a big company with no customers? They need to listen to their customers and when they gamble, make something that the customer wants. It'd be better if they went back to the Embrace, Extend, Extinguish strategy... because at least the customers' needs were being catered to.
 
yelsewshane said:
I have never understood why any company would use windows in the first place for business. Linux for business and windows for gaming and media.
Click to expand...

One simple reason: Linux is far too difficult to use for the average office worker. That's all of it. If someone in the Linux community would quit this elitist attitude of "command line supremacy" and the "write it yourself" approach to Linux programs, we might see a bigger adoption rate. As it is, Linux can't do half of the things Windows can, either on the desktop or on servers, without an insane amount of extra work.

Example on the server side: I can build a DNS, DHCP, and routing server in two hours with Windows 2003, 2008, or 2012 with no extra programs. It takes a full day to do the same with any version of Linux, and with some distros several extra programs.

Example on the desktop side: installing a program: With Windows, it's just a matter of invoking and going through an installer from the source media. With Linux, if the program you want isn't in the database for the distro, which is very hit or miss, it takes downloading a .tar.gz file, unpacking it somewhere, and then run a "make", and then a "make install" to get it to begin installing, or if they happen to be packaged for Red Hat, running the installer in yum, from command line. With many Linux programs, it also involves a ton of command line configuration, editing configuration files, and other things. (Installing Nagios correctly took me three tries and over two days. It was ASININE!)

On top of that, it would take a far smarter and harder working breed of office worker to put up with Linux on the desktop. Most people have a hard enough time with Windows. (I know, I worked Windows desktop support for 13 years!) They simply couldn't handle Linux. In order to hire people that are smart enough to handle that, it would easily cost twice the salary levels of today's office worker. Forget salesmen, too. I have yet to meet a salesman who has the mentality to deal with something like Linux. They're generally people people, not technical people, and, while very smart in dealing with people, they do not have the logical reasoning to deal with Linux.

If Linux developers actually get their heads out of their elitist butts and make programs that are actually easy to install and run without all the crap command line, then they might, maybe, begin to gain market share. As it is, Linux costs far more than Windows in over cost because of the extra time it takes to support it, the time it takes to install and configure it, and the required expertise to use it in any form or fashion. It just won't happen.
 
Who paid for Netscape? I used it before IE and it was free.
Also, android may be free, but you give google a lot of data. Furthermore, you have to pay for a wireless subscription and data is not unlimited.

The. There's the new phone you have to buy every few years. PCs sales are declining because a typical user doesn't need a more powerful device. If they aren't replacing their current machine, they won't get the new OS. Most people never install a new OS. AFAIK, that's also true for OS X
 
"To rejuvenate Windows, Microsoft has undertaken a few initiatives.

For starters, it cut the price of its Surface RT tablet by 30%. There is now a $150 difference between Microsoft’s tablet and Apple’s competing iPad. In theory, that could help to save the Windows RT platform.

For Windows 8, Microsoft has rolled out an update that brings back the start button. It also partnered with its OEMs to reduce the cost of full Windows 8 tablets. Asus, for example, sells a tablet that’s less than $500, but runs full Windows 8".


To me , it sounds like all they care about is their tablet platform and not Desktops.

How about cutting the price of Windows 8 for desktops too? :confused:
 
kbrickley said:
He thinks Google will displace MS with Android :eek: ... consumers might be willing to give up the PC form factor (desktops and laptops) but enterprise will not go with Android or Chrome for desktops/laptops ... I definitely want whatever this guy is drinking :D
Click to expand...

Already happening. Mum replaced her computer with a smartphone today. A computer that she hasn't touched more than 3 or 4 times in the past year. It was cheaper for her to upgrade to a smartphone and use the data connection on that for internet than it was to keep an internet connection at home for one computer.

Maybe not an enterprise example, but certainly a good example of the erosion that is happening on the home front. Business use isn't terribly far behind. I'm seeing more tablets with docking stations being used in doctors offices and other corporate IT type environments.
 
techrat said:
Already happening. Mum replaced her computer with a smartphone today. A computer that she hasn't touched more than 3 or 4 times in the past year. It was cheaper for her to upgrade to a smartphone and use the data connection on that for internet than it was to keep an internet connection at home for one computer.

Maybe not an enterprise example, but certainly a good example of the erosion that is happening on the home front. Business use isn't terribly far behind. I'm seeing more tablets with docking stations being used in doctors offices and other corporate IT type environments.
Click to expand...

I give her a month, at most, before saying it's too difficult to use and/or see on the smartphone. She'll relegate that down to a regular phone with texting and maybe a couple minor apps. She's certainly not going to go surfing the internet on it more than absolutely necessary.
 
Frobozz said:
Microsoft is the greatest threat to Microsoft. They've been on this quest recently to ignore the customer at best and actively piss them off at worst. .. in all divisions!

Every time they disrupt their user base, it causes an opening for them (users) to explore other options. Ex. the response to Windows 8, introduction of XBone not talking about games (TV TV TV), even the discontinuation of Technet. They all give users a chance to stop and think about alternatives.

They're the biggest game in town, but what's a big company with no customers? They need to listen to their customers and when they gamble, make something that the customer wants. It'd be better if they went back to the Embrace, Extend, Extinguish strategy... because at least the customers' needs were being catered to.
Click to expand...

Wow a reasonable response.

This whole thing is quite fascinating. Ballmer is another of the "non-tech" executives trying to run a tech company. I'm sure he would succeed greatly at the helm of a auto manufacturer, in an industry that defines the "needs" of the consumer. He saw the piles of money Apple was making (which was a mistake because its a glasshouse) and tried to mimic their business model - but because he is lacking in tech knowledge he has failed to understand his consumer base. Apple is easy, geek sheik computer illiterate upwardly mobile urbanites who compete with one another. PC not so much.

The worst thing he has done is given the enterprise/licensed users absolutely no reason to upgrade. If anything he has reaffirmed the decision of those organizations still using XP! I know Gates is doing wonderful things the world across, but I'm amazed he hasn't come back to save his baby...
 
Mini-Me said:
I nominate RangerXML's post as the most insightful one in this thread.

People still need and want PC's (either desktops or laptops), and that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Most PC users still use Windows, so unless they switch to Linux or Apple or keep using XP/7 after security updates end, Microsoft Windows still has a future.

However, there's a reason the sales and marketshare numbers don't reflect that: People just aren't replacing their PC's or adding new ones to their household (or business) as fast as they're adding and replacing newfangled mobile gadgets. They don't need to. The average family might be sharing a single PC (or a few) these days, but they're replacing their numerous Android/iOS cell phones every two years (incentivized by contracts), and they're adding tablets to the mix as well. Part of this is because phones and tablets are advancing more quickly than PC's, part of it is because they're less easily shared, and part of it is because they're treated more disposably.

Not only does this high sale/replacement rate contribute to huge sales figures, but it can also inflate Android/iOS's marketshare figures, since the number of devices sold far exceeds the number of devices still in use (to a far greater extent than PC's).
Click to expand...



When I saw the chart, this is exactly what I was thinking. Graphs have an interesting way of tricking people into believing skewed perspectives.

Point in fact: In the past 10 years I have bought, for personal use, two laptops and built(upgraded) one desktop system. The android phones I've purchased? Six? Seven? I lost count I think....oh, and an iPhone and iPad.
 
Hrmmm... the economy pretty much sucks.. and a ton of people are out of work.

Companies are not hiring that many people.

Of course the demand for more (new) Windows licenses is going to go down.
 
Hell most of the government is just now updating to windows 7. I can't even begin to wonder what would possess a large company to move to windows 8...

I am always torn on linux though. I have run a few unix servers, but with how easy microsoft has made it, even a dumbass can setup a DNS and DHCP server in a few hours. I don't know about the user base not being able to use it on an enterprise desktop environment though. Anyone that has worked helpdesk knows how stupid the avg user is, however the same mistakes they are making in windows they would be making in a linux distro. Stupid is what it is..

I put mint on an old laptop for my 5 year old niece and she has less problems surfing the net and watching video's on it than secretaries/hr/general user people I have worked with who's entire job revolved around it.
 
Someone else on a cell phone high, going on about how the PC industry is "dying"
Android isn't going to replace big business reliance on the Microsoft Sever Suites any time soon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top