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R520 yields not looking good...
- Thread starter coz
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FanATIc said:So, what business school did you attend/brokerage house do you work for to make such an idiotic link?
Dont be a retard, you have no idea what you're talking about one bit. Good/bad stock prices does not equal "oh shit they're fucked for life!"
the problem is if fudo doesn't come out soon, this would the a second quarter where ATi will have marginal sales in the discreet section. After losing ground last quarter and making a lose due to bad discreet sales, they have to get something out. Xbox 360 should be out end of this year, early next year so that will help ATi's numbers greatly. But if they are going to have availablity issues like the x line its not going to be good, they might make an over all profit per quarter because of xbox 360 but they have to spend alot more money fixing thier design team. Then fixing thier chip designes. Two times in a row with yeild issues, seems to me thier engineers are lacking something.
SnakEyez187
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Why? I seem to remember pre R300 their stock was at 4 points and they had about 350 milllion of available cash and over 60 million in debt. Now they have have ~640 million in cash and 30mil in debt, how exactly are they in any trouble where they *need* to get something out?
SnakEyez187 said:
Losses doen't show up that quickly on per quarter basis. This last lose is from the quarter that the nv40's and r420 was released, which was a year ago, so there still are 4 quarters that are unaccounted for. This next quarter and quarter after that they will probably post another lose because they had to spend money on respins of the r520, which right there is around a few mill per respin. Xbox 360 sales won't show up till 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of next year, since its a % basis, Microsoft will pay depending on how many xbox's were shipped in a quarterly or biquarterly basis, don't think it will be a monthly affair.
ATi is much bigger now then before, so thier over all expenditure has increased too. Once a company gets bigger its alot easier to lose money fast then to build up.
TheDoucheMan
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dR.Jester said:
Umm, there is a little history... yes Nvidia is currently on top, but the 6xxx series has been out since some time in 2004. Before that the top dog was ati. There is give and take in this industry. If you want the best performance you should look at the performance, not just the specs of your last card.
TheTMan said:
And even before ATi was top dog with its 9xxx series of cards, Nvidia was on top with its Geforce 4 TI 4600. Then before that it was Nvidia again with the Geforce 3. And Before that, it was the Geforce 2, before that the Geforce, before that it was 3DFX, who is now owned by Nvidia.
My take on the whole history is that the only reason ATi was able to take the top spot for a generation or so was due to them buying the company that designed the r300. ATi is a one trick pony, and i dont have much in the way of expectations from them for this next gen.
It would be wonderful if ATI came up and Blew the GTX away, competition is always appreciated. But I dont have much hope for them.
FanATIc said:So, what business school did you attend/brokerage house do you work for to make such an idiotic link?
Dont be a retard, you have no idea what you're talking about one bit. Good/bad stock prices does not equal "oh shit they're fucked for life!"
You really are an idiot and clearly have no idea.
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As for the rest of you, thanks for keeping the conversation civil. It is VERY much appreciated.
FanATIc said:So, what business school did you attend/brokerage house do you work for to make such an idiotic link?
Dont be a retard, you have no idea what you're talking about one bit. Good/bad stock prices does not equal "oh shit they're fucked for life!"
...where exactly did you even get that image? sure doesn't look like this one that I got off of yahoo 5 minutes ago:
SnakEyez187
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That's the five year image, yours is the 1yr, they all show different percentages
I believe his point(if he had one) is that in the big picture, it's really a drop in the bucket in terms of how it affects the company
Look at the stock history charts carefully. The top one is a 5-year history while the bottom one is the past few months. As expected the 5-year history shows that the stock value has been stable (near 0% increase) while due to the recent releases, the stocks have gone up this past few months. If you are a short-term buyer, your chances has come and go for buying nVidia stock as it will not go much higher. It will top out soon then go lower in a few months once the competition heats up again (ATI). On the bright side, considering that technology stocks have been taking hits these past few years, nVidia's near 0% stock increase/decrease is pretty good. Unfortunately that also means that the investors got nothing these past few years. They would have done better going to CDs (3% increase) and save themselves the heart attacks when the stock tanked these past few years (based on chart).
magnuspah said:
Sorry but you are wrong on everything you have said. Both charts show RELATIVE performance between ATI and NVIDIA in comparison to an index (the 0% line) - not sure which index as neither say, but presumably the NASDAQ. They do not show actual performance.
The second chart does show that NVIDA is still bullish and ATI very bearish and the second chart is over a 12 month period.
eastvillager
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razor1 said:
...their discrete sales aren't marginal, though, the x800 series of cards is still selling quite well.
The only place they're significantly behind is the very top end, which is sorta like saying Ford is in trouble because the top 3 cars in Formula 1 aren't ford-based.
eastvillager said:
They were marginal for this quarter and it shows the x700's are not selling well, if anything they will be worse next quarter and the next 4 quarters since they lost both Dell and HP thier two biggest OEM deals.
They are behind in all discrete sales of performance dx9 cards + lossing big OEM deals doesn't look for them at all. Since thier lower end discrete cards don't perform as well as nV's counterparts at the same price points.
SnakEyez187
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eastvillager said:
Exactly.
There are still GPU markets other than the enthusiast segment.
Theres the Midrange, value end, OEM, console, Both companies have their own MB chipsets, So if the R520 isn't doing so hot; well, fine.
I relate the same situation to how microsoft works. Windows and productivity software make Nearly all of their money. And then they lose a lot on the xbox,.....and i can't remember what else microsoft has their hands in, but there's like 5 other ones that lose money too.
CodeWaste said:
Not exactly, the mid range discrete boards probably make up for around 50% of ATi's current income, added the loss of Dell and HP, that will pull ATi down a bit for revenues until Xbox 360 sales kick in. If ATi had a loss because of 1 bad quarter that speaks alot for how much those discrete boards effect thier end income. nV's bad fx line never showed a loss what so ever. Profits were down but no loss if I remember correctly.
CodeWaste said:
The same team that built the 9x00 is still with ATi.People keep making a similar statement to yours, and well, it's kind of just dumb. While the 8500 wasn't an amazing card, you have to remember that the driver team was much less active than it is now. The 8500 was out to compete with the gf3, yet through driver updates, it compared favourably with the gf4 in many instances.
Im also going to quote myself from another thread, because I'm tired of typing it over and over in slightly different formats.
eno-on said:
eno-on said:
People keep making a similar statement to yours, and well, it's kind of just dumb. While the 8500 wasn't an amazing card, you have to remember that the driver team was much less active than it is now. The 8500 was out to compete with the gf3, yet through driver updates, it compared favourably with the gf4 in many instances.
Im also going to quote myself from another thread, because I'm tired of typing it over and over in slightly different formats.
Im not saying that ATi is going to die, Im just saying historically their high end cards could never compete with Nvidia (the r300 being the exception of course).
SnakEyez187
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Net income was way down when the 5800 actually arrived on store shelves, it went from 180 million to 90 million during the year that had the delays, and it still isnt anywhere near the 180 million it was
SnakEyez187 said:
They were still making a profit though. ATi is in the hole, thats what is not good even before the delay of the r520.
Even when nV lost Dell and HP they were never in the hole. Added to this, nV has been ontop for much longer so they were in a better situation to take a hit and still come back. ATi still has alot on reserve but 650 mill is not much for a company that is worth 4 billion, operating expenses alone would eat that up fast.
IsaacS said:
Just looked at nVidia's stock. It has been hovering around 30 per share this past 5 years with the past few years dipping and just starting to recover. Currently it is $27 per share. So the graphs above are reflecting what I said.
With ATYT (ATI) stock, comparing to 2000 ($8 per share) it is up around 40-50%. So again, the values of the stocks and how they are performing do relate to the charts.
Looking at ATI, I don't think the company is in trouble. It just needs to release a few good products. A few years ago nVidia was in the same boat and a lot of people said the company was in trouble. Well, look where it is now. Same thing with AMD.
ATi expenses options, Nvidia doesn't. Without the options expense ATi still showed a profit for last Q.
Because of the FASB rule change Nvidia will start expensing in 2007. This comment is from a footnote in their latest 10-Q>
"We are currently evaluating which expense recognition method we will apply upon adoption of SFAS No. 123(R). We will implement the provisions of SFAS No. 123(R) beginning in fiscal 2007. Once adopted, the standard will have an adverse impact on our operating results and financial condition."
Because of the FASB rule change Nvidia will start expensing in 2007. This comment is from a footnote in their latest 10-Q>
"We are currently evaluating which expense recognition method we will apply upon adoption of SFAS No. 123(R). We will implement the provisions of SFAS No. 123(R) beginning in fiscal 2007. Once adopted, the standard will have an adverse impact on our operating results and financial condition."
Jima13 said:
They started this in 2003 in Canada, that is not purely the cause of posting a loss.
8 million were the expenses for stock options in 1st Q 2004, and net income was $63 mil,
ATi has lost alot this past quarter they are barely braking even. And if ATi's options cost them 10 mill they would have only made 9.6 mill, thats not much compaired to what they had before.
http://www.forbes.com/associatedpress/feeds/ap/2004/12/21/ap1722638.html
Can't compair the situation that nV was in during the fx line, they had suplimentary income from the xbox deal which was much more lucrative then the xbox 360 deal. Plus they had a much bigger market share to begin with before starting to post a decline in revenues. nV had 80% of the discrete sales, ATi had 20% at the time. Now ATi has 30% and nV has 70% and ATi might still have 2 bad quarters depending on the r520, and when they start seeing the xbox 360 deal kick in. Its quite a different story.
Jima13 said:you're being disingenuous as you made obvious in a prior post. It appears you conveniently cut Nvidia off of this quote>
In Q2'05, ATIs desktop graphics shipments grew 6.2% sequentially while Nvidias desktop shipments fell 7.5%....
no I didn't look back thats intigrated chip sets, lot less money in integrated chip sets then the discrete market
Their main competition is Intel, they have to cut thier profit margins very slim to compete with intel, this is why there is very little money in integrated graphics.should have said is going to drop even more then it already has.
Recent Mercury figures seem to show that ATI is finally gaining a foothold in the chipset business, will you be using CrossFire ?
There is no doubt that nVidias SLi solution has caused a great stir over the past 12 months. The chipsets are good and we have built a lot of review winners using this technology. At the same time, you cannot ignore a company like ATI that picks up 27 per cent of the worldwide AMD chipset business overnight. We will be evaluating CrossFire over the next four weeks and, if it is as strong as they claim, we will introduce it into our range in Q4.
http://www.hexus.net/content/beanz/beanz.php?dXJsX3Jldmlld19JRD0xNDE1
There is no doubt that nVidias SLi solution has caused a great stir over the past 12 months. The chipsets are good and we have built a lot of review winners using this technology. At the same time, you cannot ignore a company like ATI that picks up 27 per cent of the worldwide AMD chipset business overnight. We will be evaluating CrossFire over the next four weeks and, if it is as strong as they claim, we will introduce it into our range in Q4.
http://www.hexus.net/content/beanz/beanz.php?dXJsX3Jldmlld19JRD0xNDE1
Jima13 said:
Thats peanuts for them, its nice they have the market share but if they don't get the r520 out for crossfire, crossfire dies. Simple as that. Plus they don't make a whole lot of money on thier chipsets to begin with.
Whats the use of having marketshare where profits are lower then somewhere else where profits are higher and is the bread and butter of thier income?
Intigrated chipsets is not going to turn ATi's loss around to a profit (don't think ATi's staragy is to be another VIA). They have to get the r520 out. Without a flagship card with competitive performance that is available they can't sell thier midrange cards to any decent extent. Without this they can't sell thier crossfire motherboards. Anyways this has nothing to do with crossfire since those baords aren't even out yet.
And keep in mind Nvidia hasn't come into this market yet with the nforce 4 chipset. The c51 which is going to be announced soon will. This is more pressure on ATi's ingrated graphics which wasn't there before. And partly the reason they gained market share in this segment. This chipset does have more features and a better brand name then ATi's chipsets so competition will be tough for ATi with the stigmas behind thier motherboard technology and less features.
SgtSweatySac
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ViN86 said:
Fixed.
Either way, no facking way am I gonna pay $550 for a 7800GTX, then have to spend another $400 to get myself up to a PCI-E motherboard with a SD 3700. Perfectly happy with my $350 AGP X850XT for right now.
Now, once the R520 comes out, the 7800GTX prices will probably come down to more acceptable levels, so I'll consider it then.
I'm not picky between ATI and Nvidia, I just get the best card I can afford at the time.
1c3d0g said:Damn...
they didn't fail with the dust buster, that cooler was only on the 5800ultra, they failed with the NV30
SgtSweatySac
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mrhemmy said:
*WHAP WHAP WHAP* Shut up bitch! Don't make me smack a 'ho!
ATI and NVIDIA fans arguing on the Internets makes baby Jesus cry.
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trinibwoy said:
Old name for a non-existant card called crossfire