Nvidia Postpones 3nm GPU Launch to 2025 Amid Economic Struggles and Dwindling PC Demand

So my 4090 can last longer now... ;)

Nvidia makes much more money from enterprise product for AI. No real incentive to put too much resource at gaming GPU. No way 5090 will be x2 of 4090. It will hit the power/heat wall, especially for 3nm.
 
Lakados said:
The market could be the hottest it’s ever been and it wouldn’t matter, there is nobody who can make a 3nm chip right now. There is no amount of money NVidia can pay to get a 3nm chip produced unless Apple voluntarily gives up their TSMC contract which Apple can’t do.
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Technically Nvidia could pay more than Apple and take that 3nm for themselves, but it obviously isn't a good idea with current market conditions. Intel was doing this, until they backed off and made their own 3nm.
Market conditions may get worse, they may improve, aliens might invade and turn us into house pets. Regardless of market factors there is no company who could get Nvidia any useful supply of a 3nm chip before 2025.
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Apple will have 3nm chips by the end of the year, so I'm sure if Nvidia wanted to they could have 3nm as well. If Nvidia is delaying until 2025, that means they expect the market to be so bad that there's no point touching 3nm for nearly 2 years. Intel's 3nm is expected to be ready by next year and I think they're ready to sell to anyone who needs it. The problem is nobody needs it.
 
Do not forget that we are all expecting an RTX 4090 Ti to come into existence. Wringing out the enthusiast-cloth to its last drop of cash is certainly Nvidia's plan. If they release the RTX 4090 Ti this summer, then that would simply end current market conditions, especially if it's priced nearly the same as the RTX 4090 currently is, but pushes down the MSRP of the RTX 4090 into its demand-based price level. If Nvidia forcefully stabilized the market by lowering the price of its entire product stack, it would shutdown AMD's very next attempt to release any new card, and Intel wouldn't be able to interfere.

The market would simply belong to Nvidia.
 
That could be just some very small 3-4 months delay (instead of an october-november release like Ampere-Lovelace) 2024 to say february 2025 versus usual schedule.

Or it could be a full one year one, does not seem clear. They have a lot of room to make much better lovelace product on nvidia 4nm if they need too, with bigger chips-memory bandwith, the 4080ti can be closer to the 4090 and so on down the stack, if they are ready to loose some margins.
 
DukenukemX said:
Technically Nvidia could pay more than Apple and take that 3nm for themselves, but it obviously isn't a good idea with current market conditions. Intel was doing this, until they backed off and made their own 3nm.
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Nvidia might have better luck with Intel's 3nm ...
DukenukemX said:
Apple will have 3nm chips by the end of the year, so I'm sure if Nvidia wanted to they could have 3nm as well. If Nvidia is delaying until 2025, that means they expect the market to be so bad that there's no point touching 3nm for nearly 2 years. Intel's 3nm is expected to be ready by next year and I think they're ready to sell to anyone who needs it. The problem is nobody needs it.
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TSMC is currently struggling to get a 50% yield making the iPhone chips, those are tiny, I can't even imagine what the yields would be on something the size of Nvidia's monster chips. TSMC is hoping to improve that by 5% per quarter but that puts things well into 2025 before they get to the magical 80%, and because of the delay on 2nm Apple won't be transitioning to that when planned so that means 3nm remains pinned longer than anybody planned.
The market is garbage but blaming it for their delay in releasing 3nm is a convenient out as they don't have to throw TSMC under the bus in any public manner to their shareholders.
 
1337Goat said:
Do not forget that we are all expecting an RTX 4090 Ti to come into existence. Wringing out the enthusiast-cloth to its last drop of cash is certainly Nvidia's plan. If they release the RTX 4090 Ti this summer, then that would simply end current market conditions, especially if it's priced nearly the same as the RTX 4090 currently is, but pushes down the MSRP of the RTX 4090 into its demand-based price level. If Nvidia forcefully stabilized the market by lowering the price of its entire product stack, it would shutdown AMD's very next attempt to release any new card, and Intel wouldn't be able to interfere.

The market would simply belong to Nvidia.
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The 4090TI was a repurposing of their OAM silicon which is a 600w monster they use for their AGX servers, before AI took off I have no doubt that it would have been a thing but now that it has I doubt we'll see it any time soon.
 
jbltecnicspro said:
Those batteries aren’t gonna mine themselves!
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screenshot_2023-01-31-08-03-06-76_965bbf4d18d205f782c6b8409c5773a42587931782028071961.jpg
 
GoldenTiger said:
That's not unusual for an 8 month old video card to have plenty of stock... especially a top end one. Stock historically has only been short the first month or so.
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For an 8 month old card, yes. I saw sales and special “free” bundles with 4070 cards during the first week of launch though.
 
Krenum said:
Well, at least until the material makes it to the processing stage.
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Well that's where Lithium gets fun, if you are extracting it from Spodumene then yeah you need a lot of chemicals it is a dirty process but those deposits are primarily found in Australia, and Northern Canada, which is relatively cheap but very dirty.
If you are extracting it from brine water dug up from old saltwater deposits though it can be done passively for the most part in Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, and much of the US and China, you can rehydrate it and let it go through a series of evaporations where you sift out the unwanted sediment it, the problem there comes in the finishing step as you need some pretty serious chemicals to extract the Lithium from the salt, and proper disposal of those chemicals isn't cheap, it can be done cleanly but in places where there is little to no regulation regarding that, I doubt it is bothered with. If you have the equipment and facilities on hand then more than 90% of the water used in the brining process is safe to let off the remaining 10% is the stuff you need to get seriously dealt with, but once treated can also be returned.
So there are environmentally neutral methods for Lithium extraction, they are just slow and require extensive finishing which makes it expensive, but fortunately, those methods are picking up in popularity.
 
jfreund said:
Isn't Nvidia supposed to be moving to a chiplet-type design?
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All the Blackwell leaks were stating Monolithic MCM, not chiplets.
TSMC has a small problem with their Chiplets, in that the cost savings from the smaller chips and their higher yields are eaten up by the complicated interposer they require when operating at those speeds with that much data moving around.
 
1337Goat said:
If they release the RTX 4090 Ti this summer, then that would simply end current market conditions, especially if it's priced nearly the same as the RTX 4090 currently is, but pushes down the MSRP of the RTX 4090 into its demand-based price level.
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Very unlikely. The RTX 4090 and 4090 Ti serves a very small segment of the market who have no problem with price so long as they have the fastest.
If Nvidia forcefully stabilized the market by lowering the price of its entire product stack, it would shutdown AMD's very next attempt to release any new card, and Intel wouldn't be able to interfere.

The market would simply belong to Nvidia.
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Why would Nvidia do that? Other than market conditions might for them to lower prices, but that's the last thing they want to do. It is the first thing I want them to do.
 
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