Navi Rumors v2.0

Status
Not open for further replies.

Boil

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Sep 19, 2015
Messages
1,435
Well, for some reason the original Navi Rumors thread got shut down...?

No reasoning, no notice, just a suddenly locked thread...

So here we are with a NEW Navi Rumors thread, Navi Rumors v2.0...!!!

To add a little content to the thread...



Discuss...!!!
 

Zareek

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 5, 2011
Messages
191
He flip-flops more than a Clinton! Didn't he say late last year, maybe early this year that initial samples showed better than expected power and performance?

I also agree on the power. I will accept the noisy cooler and extra power draw but only when loaded. It needs to idle at reasonable noise and power levels for web browsing, etcetera. When I'm gaming, I don't care if it makes more noise or takes extra juice as long the price to performance ratio is there. I know over time using less power will pay for itself but I don' t typically game that much...
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
AdoredTV just relays information that he deems credible or within the ballpark of being possible. If his source says pigs can fly he does not go with it. If his source says that Navi targets are X Y or Z and it doesn't come close to something extremely strange then yeah those this will end up in a video.

What is nice that he shows what is going, some of the original targets were not met and he tells us about it. And the excuse if you want to call it that is that it is still hard for AMD to get their GPU going , which in it self is not something that is that extreme of a story since we have seen it happen before.

If AdoredTV gets several sources saying the same thing then it might as well be true, remember he clearly says take this with a grain of salt that is a clear indication that things are not set in stone .......
 
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
992
AdoredTV just relays information that he deems credible or within the ballpark of being possible. If his source says pigs can fly he does not go with it. If his source says that Navi targets are X Y or Z and it doesn't come close to something extremely strange then yeah those this will end up in a video.

What is nice that he shows what is going, some of the original targets were not met and he tells us about it. And the excuse if you want to call it that is that it is still hard for AMD to get their GPU going , which in it self is not something that is that extreme of a story since we have seen it happen before.

If AdoredTV gets several sources saying the same thing then it might as well be true, remember he clearly says take this with a grain of salt that is a clear indication that things are not set in stone .......
The videos are classic clickbait.

First, release a video showing things too good to be true

Second, release a subsequent video that's all doom and gloom

No matter how Navi actually turns out, old Jim got all the possibilities covered so he couldn't possibly be wrong.
 

c3k

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Messages
2,173
I like how he puts it out there with all the caveats.

He's been spot-on with a lot of his analyses and prognostications.
 

Factum

2[H]4U
Joined
Dec 24, 2014
Messages
2,436
I like how he puts it out there with all the caveats.

He's been spot-on with a lot of his analyses and prognostications.
Which of the videos are true then...you cannot have it both ways?
 

c3k

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Messages
2,173
Which of the videos are true then...you cannot have it both ways?
Sure you can. He says, "This is what I extrapolate from sources," followed by "But this is the pessimistic view."

In any engineered solution there is a range. He gives high end and low end: best case/worst case.

Now, sure, you could say he's just covering his ass, but he puts his reasoning right out there for all to see. His analyses are pretty darn good.
 
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
992
Joel Hruska (ExtremeTech):

There has been a surfeit of what Alan Greenspan might have called "irrational exuberance" surrounding AMD and 7nm technology for both Ryzen and Navi. It appears to be fed by fanboys with no concept of how over-hyping the technology cycle behind a company can lead to fans being angry and even vengeful when AMD "fails" to deliver on promises they never made. Widespread coverage of these rumors can lead to them being treated as facts or near-facts, despite AMD doing absolutely nothing to confirm them.

The basic argument is the same, and goes like this:

1). AMD is about to do something extraordinary.

2). AMD, being run by idiots, will choose to sell their extraordinary new product for roughly half the price as the competition, despite the fact that what AMD needs, more than anything, is stable, long-term profits and strong revenue gain across multiple market shares.

3). Even though the only way to establish #2 is by investing in one's own products and growing revenue, people expect that AMD will starve itself in the name of gaining market share, even though "Lose money on every product and make it up with volume," is not actually a winning move.

4). This practical issue will be solved with chiplets, because chiplets are magic, and 7nm wafers are not more expensive, and design costs have not risen, and AMD is not trying to break into markets like AI and deep learning where Nvidia has an enormous institutional advantage. AMD certainly isn't facing an entrenched competitor like Intel, whose quarterly profits dwarf AMD's by orders of magnitude.

5). The fact that 10nm has slipped so badly is proof that Intel can no longer compete and will slowly be destroyed by ARM and AMD while AMD takes over its market and rules the Earth.

The most annoying thing about all of this is that you could hit "Rewind" and turn the clock back to early 2006. They're basically the same arguments with updated product names (and, of course, the fact that AMD didn't own ATI in early 2006).

I expect AMD to take advantage of 7nm to build a much more competitive Navi than Vega or Polaris have been.I think they will offer a much higher level of performance per dollar and performance per watt. I have not made specific predictions past that because the rumor mill has done a lot of churning about Navi and most of it has been stupid. AMD will not launch an RTX 2070 killer at $250 because AMD isn't going to leave all that money on the table when it desperately needs revenue to fuel its own R&D. AMD wants to play in AI and DL. Nvidia owns those markets so completely, AMD is basically fighting to be a footnote. So clearly, the right solution is to make as much money as possible and plow that back into the business as quickly as possible, in order to build more aggressive AI-focused products on 7nm and steal a march on Nvidia.

Just kidding.

What I meant was, "The smart thing to do is to sell each GPU for one penny above cost, to make the fanboys happy."

(To be absolutely clear, I am not annoyed with you or any commenter specifically. I am tired of chasing down and debunking bad rumors based on dumb data).

I think Navi will be good. I share your concern about how good it will be because AMD has had a hard time securing a straight win against Nvidia in most market segments (the RX 570 is a blowout win against both the GTX 1050 Ti and the GTX 1650, but that's the exception that proves the rule). I think the $330 price tag on an RTX 2070 competitor is probably low, but it's not unbelievably, insanely low. The $250 rumor was.

The rumor mill all-too-often confuses “AMD will make a very competitive / superior play in terms of performance per dollar” with “AMD will gut its own profit margins in the name of offering an unsustainably good deal.”
 

NKD

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
8,070
Joel Hruska (ExtremeTech):

There has been a surfeit of what Alan Greenspan might have called "irrational exuberance" surrounding AMD and 7nm technology for both Ryzen and Navi. It appears to be fed by fanboys with no concept of how over-hyping the technology cycle behind a company can lead to fans being angry and even vengeful when AMD "fails" to deliver on promises they never made. Widespread coverage of these rumors can lead to them being treated as facts or near-facts, despite AMD doing absolutely nothing to confirm them.

The basic argument is the same, and goes like this:

1). AMD is about to do something extraordinary.

2). AMD, being run by idiots, will choose to sell their extraordinary new product for roughly half the price as the competition, despite the fact that what AMD needs, more than anything, is stable, long-term profits and strong revenue gain across multiple market shares.

3). Even though the only way to establish #2 is by investing in one's own products and growing revenue, people expect that AMD will starve itself in the name of gaining market share, even though "Lose money on every product and make it up with volume," is not actually a winning move.

4). This practical issue will be solved with chiplets, because chiplets are magic, and 7nm wafers are not more expensive, and design costs have not risen, and AMD is not trying to break into markets like AI and deep learning where Nvidia has an enormous institutional advantage. AMD certainly isn't facing an entrenched competitor like Intel, whose quarterly profits dwarf AMD's by orders of magnitude.

5). The fact that 10nm has slipped so badly is proof that Intel can no longer compete and will slowly be destroyed by ARM and AMD while AMD takes over its market and rules the Earth.

The most annoying thing about all of this is that you could hit "Rewind" and turn the clock back to early 2006. They're basically the same arguments with updated product names (and, of course, the fact that AMD didn't own ATI in early 2006).

I expect AMD to take advantage of 7nm to build a much more competitive Navi than Vega or Polaris have been.I think they will offer a much higher level of performance per dollar and performance per watt. I have not made specific predictions past that because the rumor mill has done a lot of churning about Navi and most of it has been stupid. AMD will not launch an RTX 2070 killer at $250 because AMD isn't going to leave all that money on the table when it desperately needs revenue to fuel its own R&D. AMD wants to play in AI and DL. Nvidia owns those markets so completely, AMD is basically fighting to be a footnote. So clearly, the right solution is to make as much money as possible and plow that back into the business as quickly as possible, in order to build more aggressive AI-focused products on 7nm and steal a march on Nvidia.

Just kidding.

What I meant was, "The smart thing to do is to sell each GPU for one penny above cost, to make the fanboys happy."

(To be absolutely clear, I am not annoyed with you or any commenter specifically. I am tired of chasing down and debunking bad rumors based on dumb data).

I think Navi will be good. I share your concern about how good it will be because AMD has had a hard time securing a straight win against Nvidia in most market segments (the RX 570 is a blowout win against both the GTX 1050 Ti and the GTX 1650, but that's the exception that proves the rule). I think the $330 price tag on an RTX 2070 competitor is probably low, but it's not unbelievably, insanely low. The $250 rumor was.

The rumor mill all-too-often confuses “AMD will make a very competitive / superior play in terms of performance per dollar” with “AMD will gut its own profit margins in the name of offering an unsustainably good deal.”

This! I am simply tired of people thinking AMD has to sell on price. No they don't. Then the same people will complain why AMD doesn't have a compelling product on the GPU side. Hello? Need them profits to go back in R&D lol. While I believe zen will help, one can't expect AMD to sell Navi at dumbster price.

As far as AdoredTv, He is okay but I think he was so wrong about his Navi rumor initially that now it seems he is covering up for the overblown expectations to hey don't expect navi to be too good lol. He only has himself to blame, Who knows may be his source is Nvidia fanboy blowing Navi expectations out of water and then pissing on them with bad news.
 

Ocellaris

Ginger @le, an alcoholic's best friend.
Joined
Jan 1, 2008
Messages
18,888
Sure you can. He says, "This is what I extrapolate from sources," followed by "But this is the pessimistic view."

In any engineered solution there is a range. He gives high end and low end: best case/worst case.

Now, sure, you could say he's just covering his ass, but he puts his reasoning right out there for all to see. His analyses are pretty darn good.
Presenting all possible realities as potential outcomes is functionally equivalent to just saying nothing.
 

c3k

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Messages
2,173
Presenting all possible realities as potential outcomes is functionally equivalent to just saying nothing.
True. But I've not seen him "present all possible realities as potential outcomes". I get it: you're haters. He posts the "what if it's good" and "what if it's bad". As it gets closer, he's done the "here's what I -think- it'll be."

He's got a good track record. Better than my ability to guess about what'll come out and more informative than what we're hearing from AMD.

Shrug.

I'll keep watching his vids and be informed and entertained and educated.
 

illli

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Oct 26, 2005
Messages
1,319
what worries me is how late AMD seems to have become with their new products. Say they do come out with something on par with a 2070, and a little cheaper... well a lot of people have already bought a 2070. If AMD's competing product had come out say a lot closer to nvidia launch of theirs, there would have been more sales, people would have weighed the pros and cons between amd and nv. Now, if it launchesat the tail end of Q3, almost a year of nv uncontested market would have passed. At least that has been why i've been disappointed in this whole navi stuff. I don't know about the price, it seems theres usually a game bundle involved before actual price cuts. Maybe AMD will feel a 3 game bundle (just a guess) at or around the same price as 2070 would look just as attractive as just a cheaper price.
 

NKD

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
8,070
what worries me is how late AMD seems to have become with their new products. Say they do come out with something on par with a 2070, and a little cheaper... well a lot of people have already bought a 2070. If AMD's competing product had come out say a lot closer to nvidia launch of theirs, there would have been more sales, people would have weighed the pros and cons between amd and nv. Now, if it launchesat the tail end of Q3, almost a year of nv uncontested market would have passed. At least that has been why i've been disappointed in this whole navi stuff. I don't know about the price, it seems theres usually a game bundle involved before actual price cuts. Maybe AMD will feel a 3 game bundle (just a guess) at or around the same price as 2070 would look just as attractive as just a cheaper price.
They could kill the GPU side and focus entirely on CPU side if they wanted. But they chose not to do it. They have come back on the CPU side and they will on the GPU side in due time. I think they are depending on the next-gen architecture to truly compete here. CPU side is where they will make bank, for now, that will help the GPU side. I think Lisa has realized it for a long time, so I don't think AMD is too concerned about the GPU side, if they poured too much into GPU side they could be under right now.
 
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
992
True. But I've not seen him "present all possible realities as potential outcomes". I get it: you're haters. He posts the "what if it's good" and "what if it's bad". As it gets closer, he's done the "here's what I -think- it'll be."

He's got a good track record. Better than my ability to guess about what'll come out and more informative than what we're hearing from AMD.

Shrug.

I'll keep watching his vids and be informed and entertained and educated.
Oh, I get it.

Anyone who doesn't believe Old Jim, the messiah, is a hater.
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
Presenting all possible realities as potential outcomes is functionally equivalent to just saying nothing.
But he does not do that AdoredTV just presents what his sources tell him and the stuff he finds credible he shares.

So far no one I do mean no one had anything credible to say about what he reports on, from sources that is not someone's opinion on what he is reporting.

An opinion on what someone gets told by sources without having sources of their own is the most futile ways of trying to disprove any of it.

Simple enough example , ADoredTV : CES will see Navi announcement (hints it would get launched after).
Red Gaming Tech: Said no Navi launch but Radeon VII the consumer version of Instinct 50.

That is a rebuttal of something which has value, someone with sources not someone with an opinion....

When people that tell you they do not watch the video of AdoredTV then have an opinion(s) on AdoredTV video without seeing it That is the biggest nothing burger you have ever seen. Next to people that fail to understand how simple it works and keep attacking the messenger and ignoring the message or just keep posting opinions that are not based on any sources of their own.

You know the baseless kind like people who keep persisting that the earth is flat.
 
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
992
But he does not do that AdoredTV just presents what his sources tell him and the stuff he finds credible he shares.

So far no one I do mean no one had anything credible to say about what he reports on, from sources that is not someone's opinion on what he is reporting.

An opinion on what someone gets told by sources without having sources of their own is the most futile ways of trying to disprove any of it.

Simple enough example , ADoredTV : CES will see Navi announcement (hints it would get launched after).
Red Gaming Tech: Said no Navi launch but Radeon VII the consumer version of Instinct 50.

That is a rebuttal of something which has value, someone with sources not someone with an opinion....

When people that tell you they do not watch the video of AdoredTV then have an opinion(s) on AdoredTV video without seeing it That is the biggest nothing burger you have ever seen. Next to people that fail to understand how simple it works and keep attacking the messenger and ignoring the message or just keep posting opinions that are not based on any sources of their own.

You know the baseless kind like people who keep persisting that the earth is flat.
Old Jim/AdoredTV is narcissist.

I don't know why he hasn't been banned from YouTube yet after telling multiple people who disagreed with him to commit suicide.
 
Last edited:

c3k

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Messages
2,173
Jim/AdoredTV is narcissist.

I don't know why he hasn't been banned from YouTube yet after telling multiple people who disagreed with him to commit suicide.
Well, the ad hominem (he's a narcissist, he should be banned for hate speech) doesn't really support your argument very well. If that matters.

I get it: you don't like him. (Hey, is THAT hate speech?)

I'll keep watching and enjoying.
 
Joined
Feb 20, 2017
Messages
992
Well, the ad hominem (he's a narcissist, he should be banned for hate speech) doesn't really support your argument very well. If that matters.

I get it: you don't like him. (Hey, is THAT hate speech?)

I'll keep watching and enjoying.
I don't like a narcissist who tell people who disagree with him to commit suicide.

Who would have thought? /sarcasm
 

ManofGod

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Oct 4, 2007
Messages
12,008
I find it rather amusing that folks get all bent out of shape about some Youtube dude just doing the best job he can, at least in my opinion. It is computer hardware, not life changing decisions, unless you are one of those people who were fired for not buying Intel. :D I already have a solid set of graphics cards, a Vega 56, RX580 and an RX570 and they are perform quite well. I would love an Radeon VII but, I do not game like I once did, many moons ago. Navi, I am sure, will be the best it is capable of being and then we can move on from there. For those who dream of lower Nvidia card prices? Wake up, not going to happen.
 

Rvenger

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 12, 2012
Messages
2,102
I don't like a narcissist who tell people who disagree with him to commit suicide.

Who would have thought? /sarcasm

Also lurks in the forums and argues with green team fans under a different handle. ACTUALLY you'd be surprised how many other journalists and investors do this. Don't ask me how I know.
 

Boil

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Sep 19, 2015
Messages
1,435
c0ff207a-4cd5-4502-8dcf-a8ffd826077b-jpg.jpg


Note the "Z" in Horizon, is also modified to also show the number "7"...

As in 7nm, obviously...?
 

Oldmodder

Gawd
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
706
Or RX 7XX cards

I am probably ready to push the BUY button from day #1, the money are there for sure just need to be able to feel good about it too.
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785

Boil

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Sep 19, 2015
Messages
1,435
I do think AMD will go into the "high-end" of the GPU market with Navi, but not until sometime in 2020...

No TR3 on that slide...

Maybe (and this is just a hopeful wish) the reason there is no Threadripper 3 news, and/or reported delays, is because TR3 is what Apple is planning to use in the forthcoming modular Mac Pro...

TR3 would certainly solve the PCIe lanes issue...?
 

illli

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Oct 26, 2005
Messages
1,319
So either July, August, or September... Hopefully closer to July.
 

Boil

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Sep 19, 2015
Messages
1,435
So either July, August, or September... Hopefully closer to July.
2 1/2 weeks to Computex & and a month to E3...

We should hear about the Zen 2 / Ryzen 300-series CPUs (and APUs...?) at Computex & the Navi GPUs at E3...

So we should know a lot more about Zen 2 & Navi in the next month...!
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
I do think AMD will go into the "high-end" of the GPU market with Navi, but not until sometime in 2020...

No TR3 on that slide...

Maybe (and this is just a hopeful wish) the reason there is no Threadripper 3 news, and/or reported delays, is because TR3 is what Apple is planning to use in the forthcoming modular Mac Pro...

TR3 would certainly solve the PCIe lanes issue...?
Some people have been saying that Threadripper would come later. My guess is that the PC desktop (Ryzen) market is bigger then the enthusiast market (Threadripper) and that maybe why Zen 2 is not coming this year for X399 users.
The timing regarding Navi is a little off but you are right that something as Navi 20 is coming in 2020 because the other from scratch new architecture which supposedly is no longer under the banner of GCN should be arriving in 2021.
So either July, August, or September... Hopefully closer to July.
And then you have to keep track of the custom cooled versions if those are a better option that takes another month in general before they are available.

I do hope that all of the Navi (RX 3xxx) have custom cooling when launched. Then again if they meet the rumoured TDP it should not be too bad for the annoying sound of a blower version.
 
Last edited:

Gideon

2[H]4U
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
2,725
Looking forward to seeing it release, has not been much solid info to go on for this upcoming card. Hopefully this will start a trend on video card prices going back down to a more normal pricing level as well.
 

Dayaks

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 22, 2012
Messages
8,059
Looking forward to seeing it release, has not been much solid info to go on for this upcoming card. Hopefully this will start a trend on video card prices going back down to a more normal pricing level as well.
Pricing? Bitcoin has a different plan for that.

9EFCB6D3-272F-49D0-AFF4-D4007A9CF3BD.jpeg
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
Looking forward to seeing it release, has not been much solid info to go on for this upcoming card. Hopefully this will start a trend on video card prices going back down to a more normal pricing level as well.
There has been info about these Navi cards around the middle of 2018 Fudzilla had some good articles. Fudzilla even had the $250 price attached to it last October in one of their articles...

The reason why you are not hearing anything beside AdoredTV (last article was from Tweak Town with another source) is prolly because the same information that you hear from Jim is the only thing that is out there just not enough people that want to confirm it.

And in a way Navi is nothing to get excited about. The only reason why I like Navi is because I can finally replace my R9 290X.
AMD did a really bad job with the release of Navi. And it seems that AMD are still struggling with GPU scaling in frequency with Navi.

The architecture that you would need to look out for always was the one they started from scratch in 2018 when they changed key personnel around in RTG (this time around not tied to a shoestring budget).
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
https://videocardz.com/80720/sapphire-preparing-two-radeon-navi-models-for-july-7th-launch

While speaking to the Chinese press, Sapphire PR manager revealed that AMD is working on two Navi SKUs: a 399 USD variant to compete against GeForce RTX 2060 and 499 USD model as an alternative to RTX 2070.

The interview also shed some light on the new Navi architecture. According to the same manager, it will not support ray-tracing on a hardware level. This might be an important factor when comparing GeForce and Radeon cards at the same price point.

Yes guys lets launch on a Sunday :) . I mean you have to do something out of the box every now and then :) .
 

Pieter3dnow

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Messages
6,785
That's a lot more real than the adored TV nonsense.

Note the pricing. It's not half NVidia pricing, it's exactly matching NVidia pricing.

Just like Radeon 7 matches RTX 2080 pricing.
Yeah it is a tried and true recipe for selling cards look at how sales are going for Radeon VII?

so vega 64 performance for vega 64 price 2 years later.

Gotcha.
By that definition no one can ever release the same performance bracket cards a few years later, you could say the same about Nvidia line up today.

I have no idea on what the pricing will be if it is as suggested then AMD will cater to all of those people that out of principle would not buy Nvidia cards. But is that the market AMD is looking for because history suggests that when the cards are the same price masses will never even look at what AMD is offering.

Even better when AMD has something better there not touching it either :) .
 

Snowdog

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 22, 2006
Messages
11,267
Yeah it is a tried and true recipe for selling cards look at how sales are going for Radeon VII?



By that definition no one can ever release the same performance bracket cards a few years later, you could say the same about Nvidia line up today.

I have no idea on what the pricing will be if it is as suggested then AMD will cater to all of those people that out of principle would not buy Nvidia cards. But is that the market AMD is looking for because history suggests that when the cards are the same price masses will never even look at what AMD is offering.

Even better when AMD has something better there not touching it either :) .
The bottom line is that AMD is a business, and they need healthy margins. It was nothing more than wishful thinking to believe that they were going to sell their cards for half the price of NVidias and start some kind of price war that decimate the margins at both companies. AMD doesn't win in that scenario, they just lose their massive R&D investment.

In reality AMD will likely offer Slightly better perf/dollar than NVidia and that's it.

It's a lesson for Adored TV, the next time he is vetting and/or making up rumors. They shouldn't be too good to be true.
 

Gideon

2[H]4U
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
2,725
The bottom line is that AMD is a business, and they need healthy margins. It was nothing more than wishful thinking to believe that they were going to sell their cards for half the price of NVidias and start some kind of price war that decimate the margins at both companies. AMD doesn't win in that scenario, they just lose their massive R&D investment.

In reality AMD will likely offer Slightly better perf/dollar than NVidia and that's it.

It's a lesson for Adored TV, the next time he is vetting and/or making up rumors. They shouldn't be too good to be true.
Well it's still rumor vs rumor and to be honest I tend to never believe pricing on rumors anyway. Hopefully will know shortly for sure.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top