Just bought 200 shares @ 8.74

Risky, but if they pull out of this bad time, it could be worthwhile.

Been waiting and thinking about this is well, but I want to see the new batches come out first.
 
Providing the stock doesn't fall much more, how much are you hoping to make?
 
mason.kramer said:
Whaddya think, am I a visionary or a fool?
Click to expand...
Depends on why you bought the stock. :p

From the public information available, AMD doesn't look like it's going to be back in the competitive game in desktop CPUs or mobile CPUs until at least 2009 (i.e. products that don't need to be priced low due to performance; more expensive competitive products have higher margins). K8-based mobile chips are not going to compete with 25W Penryns except in price and poorly yielding K10s aren't going to help in 2008. The ATI side seems to be doing better with products, but in desperation to retrieve massive market share loss, AMD is cutting prices very low.

You might see an uptick in stock price if AMD manages to increase market share and ASPs in the short term, or manages to break even (Q1'08 and Q2'08 sales volumes will be lower than Q4'07). On the negative side, stock could become diluted yet again as AMD sells percentage chunks off to raise cash.

If you bought AMD because you feel it is undervalued after the ATI purchase (ZOMG, AMD + ATI is worth less than ATI was purchased for), that's a bad gamble. The problem with ATI is that it had assets which totalled only $1.2 billion when AMD purchased it. Over $3.5 billion of the purchase price was goodwill and other intangibles, an amount even AMD feels is way over priced.

If you really haven't even researched the company's financial state, you're not doing much better than gambling. :p
 
Well, as with all of my stock buys, I am looking for the long term payout. I am not an AMD expert or analyst, but I have read the analyst reports. Basically, I think that AMD+ATI is undervalued. I've always thought that the ATI purchase was insane, but nevertheless, a market cap of 4.68B for both together seems low to me. There's no growth priced into the stock, but there is growth potential. They're not going under in the next two years. If they have another flop on their hands come 2009, I just lost $1800. If they have a success, I make five times that amount. Even if the odds of them coming up with a sellable chip are one in three, I'm making a huge return. But I think the odds are higher than that.

All stock trading is gambling. Don't fool yourself!
 
mason.kramer said:
Whaddya think, am I a visionary or a fool?
Click to expand...


My wife and I just months ago borrowed and sold,and bought back 690 shares for a nice profit,earlier this week.

You figure it out.In @ 13.80 on the 15th of Oct,out at 9.05 this week past.You are down now to 8.43 in after hours trading btw,on small volume.Be careful,as I here its going lower.
 
a couple year ago as a goof I bought stock in as many of the companies i could that were in my rig at the time. Nothing crazy, I actually decided to put in exactly the amount i sepent on it, monitor included, and it was roughly $2500. Had stock in AMD, Nvidia, Seagate, & Dell (my monitor). As part of the little experiment, I decided I would sell all the stock the same time I built my next computers. Well, after taxes, I was up about $900, and went toward my current rig. I'm thinking about doing it again just for kicks on my next build.

Note, this isn't exactly a great way to invest your money, but i had the cash lying around in my account form some earlier options and figured what the hey. It was kind of fun :)

p.s. I'd had to pull my statements for the exact returns, but i do remember surprisingly Seagate had the best return, along with nvidia. AMD was pretty flat from what i remember, and took a bath on Dell :p
 
mason.kramer said:
Whaddya think, am I a visionary or a fool?
Click to expand...

If you're trying to time the market you are a fool. It doesn't work. Invest on fundamentals. AMD won't be turning a net profit any time soon. You might see the stock increase in value as people like you feel it is undervalued and will purchase. You *might* see a profit later if AMD actually delivers on Shanghai and beyond. Based on their recent performance, do you think this will happen? You don't want to be the last bagholder.
 
On a long term investment, you might do alright. As of today, AMD is like a whiskey & vicodin guzling heroin junkie. Expect it to get worse before it gets better. It's going to take a few years before they really dig themselves out of this hole. I'm not even sure a stellar R700 that shows up ahead of schedule is really going to fix their hole in the processor market. Server market, uggg.

And as Big was saying above.....stock investment is all about research, not guessing or anticipation.
 
Best of luck. I wish I had bought some nVidia stock back when it was around 10.
 
Rock&Roll said:
And as Big was saying above.....stock investment is all about research, not guessing or anticipation.
Click to expand...

Actually the stock market should be a perfect 50/50 gamble technically since all prices theoretically weigh in all current known factors, past, present and future. Some people are better guessers on trends than others...but I wouldn't say it's all about research, and rather 100% anticipation. Unless you're involved in something shady, everyone has access to the same info, the entire infrastructure is built on that premise. Personally in my experience, you're just as well off throwing it on the blackjack table. Atleast you know the two factors are your decision and luck. In stocks, you are affected by the actions of millions of other people & institutions, both those that actually invest in the same stock, and all the people that invest in every other stock. Personally, I'll take the blackjack table :p
 
Except when you play blackjack at a casino the game is set up to give you a higher statistical probability of losing (win less than 50%) so the house is guaranteed money. The stock market in general goes up over the long term so you if you diversify you have a very high probability of eventually turning a profit. Its more like getting to play with the houses rules instead of the rape-e's rule set ;)
 
not entirely true, because technically in blackjack you can improve your odds over a shoe if you pay attention to trending and anticipate what's coming. Course casino's don't like that :)


I'm obviously being a little facetious with the similarities...but just remember, for every dollar made in the stock market, there's someone who loses that dollar. It's a zero sum game. Only reason the market can continue going up is we live with the illusion that it will never end.
 
It's a genius move. AMD is purposely hitting low now.

08 is going to be awesome. Intel will be begging for mercy.
Someone quote this so they can rub it in my face 365 days from now.
 
vraa said:
It's a genius move. AMD is purposely hitting low now.

08 is going to be awesome. Intel will be begging for mercy.
Someone quote this so they can rub it in my face 365 days from now.
Click to expand...

Aright I'm quoting you, but you better prey for a miracle :p...
 
vraa said:
It's a genius move. AMD is purposely hitting low now.

08 is going to be awesome. Intel will be begging for mercy.
Someone quote this so they can rub it in my face 365 days from now.
Click to expand...

I am feeling the same...

I don't know, I'm not talking numbers or tech now ... I'm just thinking that everyone/ every company has their ups and downs... AMD is going trough their downs right now.. but they will for sure come back up...

I'm still on my socket 939 x2 4200+ ... hoping to see something great come out before chosing Intel...

I think that AMD still has the potential...
 
Basically, I think that AMD+ATI is undervalued
Click to expand...

I think they are overvalued, and its gonna go lower, and it will be at LEAST 1-2 years before they come back up if at all.

As long as AMD has stupid management, they will continue to suck.
The only way I would even consider buying AMD if they replaced upper management with known good performers with a good history.
 
pxc said:
At $140-$150, I might buy a Phenom. :p
Click to expand...
I'm just biding my time and waiting for the 45nm process. Maybe what this architecture needs is a die shrink and a few enhancements. Since I only purchase server equipment, an error in choice gets compounded with multi-sockets. Can't afford that kind of mistake. Although a dream, alas, Tigerton is way out of reach.
 
Should have bought more to make it really worth wild..

Somehow, this reminds me of my 10k lost in Cisco. :)
 
conscript said:
Actually the stock market should be a perfect 50/50 gamble technically since all prices theoretically weigh in all current known factors, past, present and future. Some people are better guessers on trends than others...but I wouldn't say it's all about research, and rather 100% anticipation. Unless you're involved in something shady, everyone has access to the same info, the entire infrastructure is built on that premise. Personally in my experience, you're just as well off throwing it on the blackjack table. Atleast you know the two factors are your decision and luck. In stocks, you are affected by the actions of millions of other people & institutions, both those that actually invest in the same stock, and all the people that invest in every other stock. Personally, I'll take the blackjack table :p
Click to expand...

You mean 50% chance it goes up and 50% chance it goes down? I don't think so. The stock market, as a whole, goes up in the long run.

I admit, a few nukes, World War III or some sort of global disaster will stop this trend. But barring that, it's completely wrong to say it's a 50/50 gamble, and you should expect a well diversified and balanced portfolio, just like a well balanced real estate portfolio, to go up in the long run.

Of couse, individual high risk stocks (like AMD .. lol) rather than portfolios are a gamble. But the stock market , as a whole (i.e. as the ultimate diversified portfolio), is not.

p.s. If you're going to gamble then going long isn't the way to do it (i.e. will you really care if the price goes up in 4 years? Not much of a gamble there). Probably would have done better to take a real gamble and gone short here and made a quick buck in a couple of months when the price dropped (even more - poor AMD).
 
Just wait. If they're making any type of margin on these at all it might turnaround. <$200 phenoms are bound to cause a buying frenzy. Granted this will kill their X2 margins. So I guess you kinda win, and then you fuck yourself good. I wonder if we could get a mod to sticky this. I think it would be damn neat to follow.
 
Fool, should have waited, I'm sure they'll make it under $8.
 
7.95 right now... ouch :(


oh wait - i got rid of all my crap when it was still 20-something :D
 
I have to admit I invested as well, its a risky move but one that could lose me some cash or it could pad my pockets.

I think your right on track with getting it while the getting is good, if AMD/ATi go down the only war that will be left to fight will be on the Intel/Nvidia front. I dont really like to think that Intel would be alone with no rivals, as they tend only to succeed when they have someone beating on their back door or giving them leftovers!!
 
VanFanel89 said:
7.95 right now... ouch :(


oh wait - i got rid of all my crap when it was still 20-something :D
Click to expand...

yeah I had AMD back in the 90's and sold it right around the time of the dot bomb. 20 something or other. live and learn.
 
It's still dropping, but that isn't the news.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071217/amd_mover.html?.v=2
He noted AMD raised its 2008 guidance above current analyst consensus and said the company's estimates were "overly optimistic" and built on "unrealistic assumptions."
Click to expand...
It's about time the analysts stopped drinking the kool aid. AMD's guidance isn't unusual, that they are getting called out on it (finally) is a bit of a Xmas miracle. :p
 
BAD move in the short term, good move in the long term...they got no aces up their sleve for the next year, but I don't think they are down and out...look at their historic chart...they hit $3 a share several years back...I will buy a bunch of their stock when they hit $4ish a share...and that's surely coming... I think you bought too early...should have asked before you purchased :)


I wonder how many people offering advice here actually trade in the market thus have legitimacy to respond....

I've traded for the last four years, and not piddly amounts either. I made $20,000 on intel alone this last year in cashed out profits. If you want my current recommendations, and they have nothing to do with AMD, PM me.

And just for the record you very much can ride product cycles of the chipmakers....Absolutely you can...that's why and how I got into the stock market and where I've made the most money. Problem here is obvious though....Where is AMD's upcoming chip that will garner the market? Nvidia has the edge in the graphics dept, and it isn't even close in the CPU market. AMD has nothing this generation, and if the CEO's and general buzz is to be believed - - - 2008 in it's entirety will be a stop bleed year. Stop bleed years, aren't good for share price ;)

Now an easy example of product cycle stock you SHOULD look into is Nvidia.

They are abut 34 right now. They are getting ready to announce their 9 series cards.

Probably will hit 50 within the next six months barring any terroist activity or just general crappy market performance.

But I'd bet my dollar that Nvidia is a 100x's better buy than AMD at this stage.
 
Their acquisition of ATI will only start helping them once they have a competitive processor again. If they can get a competitive processor they stand to gain a whole lot market share than they did last time. I would probably wait to buy until you hear at least some rumors of a killer new CPU, though, because it's going to be all downhill until that happens.
 
I think AMD's next boon will be the fact that they combine the GPU and CPU into one single chip and totally revamp the motherboard industry. I think a smaller boon will be when they integrate decent onboard video onto their AMD motherboards using the ATI video cards. The truth is most who buy an HP or Dell knows little about video cards and what to get, but they do understand Vista experience scores and when the masses start buying their next PC they are going to want to get a 'higher is better' vista experience score. A much better onboard graphics card, built into the OEMs motherboard is going to be the ticket.

When this comes round Intel will be playing catchup and Nvida and Intel will either merge or play nice.

I think the merger of AMD and ATI will someday be quite powerful, but it isn't in the immediate future.
 
Archaea said:
I think AMD's next boon will be the fact that they combine the GPU and CPU into one single chip and totally revamp the motherboard industry. I think a smaller boon will be when they integrate decent onboard video onto their AMD motherboards using the ATI video cards. The truth is most who buy an HP or Dell knows little about video cards and what to get, but they do understand Vista experience scores and when the masses start buying their next PC they are going to want to get a 'higher is better' vista experience score. A much better onboard graphics card, built into the OEMs motherboard is going to be the ticket.
Click to expand...
That prospect isn't helping the AMD stock with its current free fall.

When this comes round Intel will be playing catchup and Nvida and Intel will either merge or play nice.
Click to expand...
From the present perspective, I don't think Intel will play catch-up in the foreseeable future, and I don't believe Intel and NVidia will merge for several reasons including the FTC, but this is all too speculative.

I think the merger of AMD and ATI will someday be quite powerful, but it isn't in the immediate future.
Click to expand...
Correct, and that is a large part of the problem. The acquisition was made at too early a time frame and too high a price in respect to AMD's financial position last year. AMD is paying for that high price purchase now. More importantly, they had accumulated too much debt for nearly any kind of purchase and many sites mentioned this last year.

AMD should have focused on getting Barcelona out the door on time without defects, produce some much needed profit from the new architecture, reduce their debt accordingly and then realign their priorities elsewhere. That would have necessitated at least another year from my estimates, probably much more. They jumped the gun by purchasing Ati at a sensitive time and everything else went south since then.
 
Manny Calavera said:
So does our broker at Scotia Financial,he thinks it may hit 7.25~ by the end of January.
Click to expand...

it was at 7.54 Wednesday morning.... I dont think you have to wait til the end of January.. end of december maybe

edit: poor OP has lost around 200 dollars since this thread was made
 
it should be noted to some of the people in here, who apparently aren't so familiar with financial markets...


short term trading suffers HUGE taxes at the end of the year... you may think you made 5,000 bucks, wait till tax time, and watch most of it vanish
 
Not too worried about the tax...('nuff said here!). Anyway, it's not just the tax that kills very short term trading for the typical amateur trader. It's the commision. Unless you make significant gains, it's not worth it. Still if stock price changes significantly (i.e. 8.75 to...say 5), then you'll still do well (unless you were expecting it to go up).

As for "good in the long term", I'd say that that even then it's not worth it. There are so many better choices than AMD for a long term investment. Money you spend on AMD is less money to spend on them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top