Intel Kills off the 10nm Process

cageymaru

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Charlie Demerjian of Semiaccurate has dropped a bombshell article in which he reports that Intel insiders have proclaimed the current 10nm process is dead. He says that this is a good thing for the company as it was the right thing to do. Assuming that there is truth to this rumor, this means that only TSMC and Samsung are the gatekeepers of the next generation process. GLOBALFOUNDRIES has dropped out of the race. Samsung has begun production with their 7nm EUV process. TSMC announced that they expect their 7nm process to account for 20% of their revenue for 2019. There has been no official statement from Intel so far about the rumor.

For several years now SemiAccurate has been saying the the 10nm process as proposed by Intel would never be financially viable. Now we are hearing from trusted moles that the process is indeed dead and that is a good thing for Intel, if they had continued along their current path the disaster would have been untenable. Our moles are saying the deed has finally been done. This isn't to say the road to this point has been easy or straightforward, and the road ahead is even less solid.
 

Libast

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The cycle continues- Intel enjoys market leader for years, gets stagnant. Along comes AMD, flips Intel's shit, Intel cuts and cancels, comes roaring back.

Rinse lather repeat.
 
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cjcox

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We're old and that's just too dang small...

(oh and MULLVAD VPN, apparently that's required on posts now)
 

pcgeekesq

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So, the question we always have to ask when "news" like this hits the internet:

Is Charlie Demerjian of Semiaccurate short on Intel?


(INTC currently (Noon Eastern) up 0.6% BTW)
 

Darth Ender

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so can we safely assume that 90% of news specific to a company are BS aimed at day trading?

I'd imagine they're not even aimed at people directly, but targeting algorithms that competing firms use to make their hyper-fast short term trades.

There's a money war going on and it leverages stupid social media sites to spread misinformation so they can adjust stock prices the way they want for a few minutes (the key being they can predict what will happen and when for that short period of time after a new story breaks).

We aren't going to see a stop of this kind of market manipulation until they make rules that state that stocks must be fully acquired and held for a certain amount of reasonable time (1 continuous 24 hour period) before they can be sold again. Short term trading like you see with the ultra rich (with their insane low latency connections to markets and algorithms that trade thousands of stocks every second) is a cancer to the system and needs to be stopped.
 

Johan Steyn

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I wonder though if Intel is telling the truth. There are good reasons that they do not want this news to come out. It will hurt their stock price and the investors will be very angry

There is no reason why Intel may not announce next year that things did not go as planned and they had to stop 10nm. They just have to keep 5 engineers or so on the 10nm project to say that it is still in development. I will not trust Intel ever.
 

Galvin

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If Intel can't do 10nm, how they going to do anything smaller?

So for now its only TSMC and Samsung that can do 7nm.
 

joobjoob

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From my advanced reading it sounds like most recent die shrinks have been compromised anyway. Apparently they started only measuring certain parts of chips.
 

RPGWiZaRD

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Charlie's source is his own head. I wouldn't give him too many clicks. Sometimes he guesses right, sometimes not. I could also be right half of the time just by guessing.
 

joobjoob

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There are upsides, the constant increase in hardware has allowed OS in both pc and mobile to bloat and rot.

Then the inevitable security issues instead of being fixed, just get more bloat bandaids added on top of each other.

These limitations should push pressure from hardware back to software.
 

nEo717

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Saw that too... perhaps Intel is making progress, using a 3rd party that it is sort of progress - Intel could launch new 10nm products with launch partner only to later be able to either make their own or some part of their own, or, even focus on 7nm.

2019 will prove interesting none the less as we see AMD further their processes and try to advance their platforms.
 

Chimpee

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I wonder though if Intel is telling the truth. There are good reasons that they do not want this news to come out. It will hurt their stock price and the investors will be very angry

There is no reason why Intel may not announce next year that things did not go as planned and they had to stop 10nm. They just have to keep 5 engineers or so on the 10nm project to say that it is still in development. I will not trust Intel ever.
Yet you would trust Charlie who always have an axe to grind with Intel and also have a history of overly exaggerate? Not saying Intel may not cancel 10nm process, just one should consider source first before making a conclusion, especially if said source comes from Charlie.
 

pcgeekesq

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If Intel can't do 10nm, how they going to do anything smaller?
So for now its only TSMC and Samsung that can do 7nm.
Careful there, there's no real standard for what "10nm" or "7nm" means across manufacturers.
Intel's 10nm process should (but might not) have higher component density than its 14nm,
but Samsung/TSMC's 7nm isn't necessarily more dense than Intel's 10nm.
 

akaliel

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If Intel can't do 10nm, how they going to do anything smaller?

So for now its only TSMC and Samsung that can do 7nm.
Don't fall for the marketing. 10nm / 7nm are as much the name of the product as the actual sizes. In reality when you look at chip density Intel's 10nm was much smaller than Samsung's 10nm. But it's not smaller than Samsung's 7nm, although, is very close.

https://wccftech.com/analysis-about-intels-10nm-process/
 

akaliel

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sourcing wccftech as "proof" to illustrate a point is like asking a turkey how to bark like a dog or a pig how to fly at high speed like a fighter jet ^.^
Even semiaccurate admitted that today's process names are more about nanomarketing than nanometers.

Here's another:
https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/7602-semicon-west-intel-10nm-gf-7nm-update.html

Quote at the bottom:
The other interesting Intel news is that they may skip 7nm and move directly to 5nm. This of course is a marketing move since the Intel processes are off by a node name or two. The Intel 14nm process rivals TSMC 10nm and the Intel 10nm process rivals TSMC 7nm. Scotten Jones is the expert so I will defer to him if you need further convincing. Personally I think it is a great idea and will support Intel 100% on this one, absolutely.
 

chithanh

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I think the only face-saving way for both parties to get out of this is if Intel cancelled 10nm (Cannon Lake) but not 10nm+ (Ice Lake).
Is Charlie Demerjian of Semiaccurate short on Intel?
If so, he would be required to disclose it. However,
SemiAccurate said:
Disclosures: Charlie Demerjian and Stone Arch Networking Services, Inc. have no consulting relationships, investment relationships, or hold any investment positions with any of the companies mentioned in this report.
 

griff30

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We need a whole lot more info and corroboration than this to even be able to form an opinion as to what is going on.
I am quite sure those who gained anything from stock scare just now, don't want you to know.
 
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