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Intel is losing against AMD

Zarathustra[H] said:
I'm not making excuses for Intel.

I strongly dislike Intel for their years of unfair and illegal business practices and suing anyone and everyone who dared to try to compete with them.

I just ordered a Threadripper 3960x. I fully acknowledge AMD is having a moment right now, and I am very excited about it as I have been looking forward to it for 15 years.

I'm just cautioning against irrational exuberance. The odds of them still being in the lead over Intel 3-5 years from now is from where I am sitting relatively small.
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I liked your post for the incoming TR build. lol :)

On AMDs future I have a feeling they are pretty much set as long as you can hold on to Lisa Su... and she doesn't seem to be in a rush to do anything else. I mean where would she go that would be a better fit for her... at this point if its just a question of more money no doubt AMD would dip into their new found revenue for a fat bonus.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
The low threaded example is important for the same reason when we do in game CPU benchmarks we run at low resolution.

In low threaded examples we remove the thermal bottleneck caused by Intel still being on an older process and get more of a preview of how they might perform if that thermal bottleneck were not there on a smaller, newer process node.

I have already repeatedly stated that I agree that AMD has an advantage today. I am predicting forward and trying to get an understanding of what things might look like on the future when Intel has a new process. For this analysis it is CRUCIAL to omit the high core count chips.

Not doing so displays a fundamental lack of understanding of how these things work.
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863.png
 
I'm looking at those "Ultimate Rig" services ad by Microcenter - what a racket lmao.
 
Just a note:

Smaller process nodes don't reduce thermal bottlenecks, you would need to reduce the power required by around the same amount as the area reduction for that to be true and there's a physical limit to it, this is what we are facing, it indeed used to be easier to reduce area and power but at least Intel seems to be facing a wall in their process that they may not be able to overcome without a change of the materials used in the chips.

This should be pretty obvious by now but had to point it out after reading someone thinking that they could automatically achieve it even though that has been their exact problem with current 10nm seeing their mobile performance equalized in power (25w VS 25w), they increased IPC, but diminished max and average clocks erasing most of their increases due to the increase in energy density / thermals.
 
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Zarathustra[H] said:
I'm not convinced at all.
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You are overlooking one very important factor about monolithic dies.
Sure they can shrink it. But they have a much larger area, a significantly higher defect rate, they are hard to produce and significantly more expensive to make compared to small chiplets.
Especially when you are constrained, e.g. 10nm or 7nm. Intel only just dumped 10nm, so 7nm is a long way off.. by two and a bit years, AMD is on 5nm, with already better uarch with Zen3 next year, then another jump with Zen 4/5nm.. we are back to the same situation as now or maybe more so in AMDs favour.
8 core CCX will bring latency difference to almost nothing. Cache coherency... etc.. everything you see in Zen+ to Zen2 all over again..

Amd had 70-80% yield rates with chiplets on 14/12nm. That's basically unheard of for CPUs.
They can just bin more, cherry pick stuff and retain a performance advantage, just like we see with TR3. It's effectively no slower than 9900k in most situations and crushes it and everything else from intel in MT.
They get a higher yield per area of wafer than anyone else except perhaps cellphone CPUs which are also small in area.

Intel has its main strength right now is ecosystem and support and mobile. Mobile advantage will be over in a few months with 7nm laptop parts coming out.. then.. maybe they will be playing 2nd fiddle IF AMD can get the volume out for those parts while switching desktop production to 7nm EUV as much as possible.

Snowdog said:
It looks like a reasonable proxy to me, as any place reporting this kind of data, is reporting something similar, and it makes sense. Intel has basically flopped hard for most enthusiasts, and bang/buck buyers.
I know this is a minority of the market, but IMO, the enthusiasts are the leading indicators in the market. Enterprise is slow to change and tied up in contracts. That doesn't mean Intel is better for this market, it's just means there is more inertia.
.
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Mindshare is overlooked. Those enthusiasts often steer purchasing in IT depts and similar.

Being 11/13 on Amazon best sellers (and maintaining that for a while now) is significant mind share. When LTT trashes Intel and praises AMD, even the most idiotic RGB-blinded shinvidia fanboy is going to start noticing they are not running the 'new hotness'. And that is what you are seeing right now.
It always starts this way.
AMD has had market parity in GPUs before. And decent strides in in CPUs. And every time they lost that, they lost a lot of mindshare in the process.
I didn't even bother looking at AMD when I built my 2600k.. and I almost exclusively ran them from early 00s (hell the family PC was even a sx386 AMD...) why? Because they sucked ass at that time compared to the core uarch. And mindshare really solidified that.

Now is a critical crossroads and it will be shown in sales figures in the next year, I am quite certain of this.

AMD now needs to get mobile 7nm out, cut that lunch, make sure they don't use shitty DDR4 across the board and focus on Enterprise ecosystem/support/compiler/program bullshit while executing their roadmap as planned. So far.. they are on track.

th?id=OIP.jpg
 
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r/amd is a cult. Please leave their 'content' where you find it.

N4CR said:
Especially when you are constrained, e.g. 10nm or 7nm. Intel only just dumped 10nm, so 7nm is a long way off.. by two and a bit years
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Intel didn't stop work on 10nm or 7nm. They're still standing up 10nm production lines, and 7nm is expected to follow closely.

N4CR said:
But they have a much larger area, a significantly higher defect rate, they are hard to produce and significantly more expensive to make compared to small chiplets.
Click to expand...

Anyone can do chiplets, and Intel will likely do them better. As will Nvidia... ;)
 
IdiotInCharge said:
r/amd is a cult. Please leave their 'content' where you find it.



Intel didn't stop work on 10nm or 7nm. They're still standing up 10nm production lines, and 7nm is expected to follow closely.



Anyone can do chiplets, and Intel will likely do them better. As will Nvidia... ;)
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Except they are not doing chiplets so.......... Show me proof that they can do them and better...........
 
ManofGod said:
Except they are not doing chiplets so.......... Show me proof that they can do them and better...........
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Uh, Intel and Nvidia have both shown prototypes with chiplets.

Chiplets aren't hard, and both Intel and Nvidia have more experience when it comes to high-speed interconnects and reducing latency.
 
When it comes down to mindshare vs systemmark for determining market share I am taking mindshare as more viable as it is based on actual sales. Sysmark has a bug, you can register new Emails run the test and record the same CPU multiple times, it doesn't detect serial code so the numbers are unrealistic. I would say the desktop paradigm has changed substantially, probably a 40-60 split but maybe even closer or tending towards 50-50
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Uh, Intel and Nvidia have both shown prototypes with chiplets.

Chiplets aren't hard, and both Intel and Nvidia have more experience when it comes to high-speed interconnects and reducing latency.
Click to expand...

Link and Proof? You claim they can do them and better? Define better?
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Tho thenthative :ROFLMAO:
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You made a claim, time to put up or shut up. Intel is losing to AMD and that is a good thing and unlike Intel, AMD is not letting up on the gas. :) In fact, this is the first time in a while that I have actually been tempted to replace my cpu even after just a couple of years, since the performance is there.
 
ManofGod said:
You made a claim, time to put up or shut up. Intel is losing to AMD and that is a good thing and unlike Intel, AMD is not letting up on the gas. :) In fact, this is the first time in a while that I have actually been tempted to replace my cpu even after just a couple of years, since the performance is there.
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this is why amd leading is bad

they are making us upgrade too soon with higher and higher core counts and faster and faster speeds.

i remember when PC was a gentleman's endeavor and intel let us stew in the corner with quad core after quad core release with minimal benefits and even smaller gains.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Chiplets aren't hard, and both Intel and Nvidia have more experience when it comes to high-speed interconnects and reducing latency.
Click to expand...
How's that working out for them with their HEDT line?

And it's a fascinating mindset. When Intel is in the lead, they are smarter and more advanced, but when AMD is it's meh, that's easy and everyone can do it better, they just didn't choose to yet. Well, not that fascinating, just fanboyish.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
The low threaded example is important for the same reason when we do in game CPU benchmarks we run at low resolution.

In low threaded examples we remove the thermal bottleneck caused by Intel still being on an older process and get more of a preview of how they might perform if that thermal bottleneck were not there on a smaller, newer process node.

I have already repeatedly stated that I agree that AMD has an advantage today. I am predicting forward and trying to get an understanding of what things might look like on the future when Intel has a new process. For this analysis it is CRUCIAL to omit the high core count chips.

Not doing so displays a fundamental lack of understanding of how these things work.
Click to expand...


You have been using Intels process superiority (higher clock speed) as a given, while simultaneously turning around and touting, this is what they can do while at a process disadvantage. :rolleyes:

Today on Desktop, 8 cores and below, Intel has clear process superiority. They can run 5GHz all core.

AMD has process superiority for high core counts (12+), when power usage becomes a greater factor, and it limits clock speed. Though Intel products can be shifted up the core count scale a bit with lots of power and cooling.

Now you want to focus on low threaded tasks because they can take most advantage of Intel's process advantage, while ignoring the disadvantage, assuming Intel will just automatically keep the former, while picking up the later.

It's biased to just assume that will happen. We are in uncharted territory on the process side.

Intel's shift to 10nm/7nm, might come out ahead, or it might bring parity on both clock speed and power, or they might fall behind TSMC in the next decade.

Anyone following these discussions knows I am not AMD biased, but I am not Intel biased either. There are over-reaches on both sides of the argument, and this is one of them here.
 
It just seems so odd to assume Intel is going to get thier next arch perfect, just because it's Intel. If that was the case, why is 10nm such a blunder?

That combined with blowing ryzen off as merely "ok", or just a "cut up cpu" that Intel could do if they really wanted to, it just sounds, well, defensive.

As annoying as the whole "oh, Intel is never going to recover now!" types are, the aforementioned comments really sound like the opposite side of the same coin.

Speculation along with downplaying/hyping.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Uh, Intel and Nvidia have both shown prototypes with chiplets.

Chiplets aren't hard, and both Intel and Nvidia have more experience when it comes to high-speed interconnects and reducing latency.
Click to expand...

We'll have to wait and see about that. NV has shown one demo chiplet part for AI... they haven't proven they can make it work in regard to GPUs.

Intel is planning "chiplet" parts but their idea is 3D stacking. Which is very pie in the sky stuff to be honest. They also have working demo parts but in Intels case they are small purpose built low power SOC parts using Foveros. They have their Agilex cpu now which is hardly a standard Intel part... I mean first of its an ARM chip. ;)

If they do use 3D chiplet stacking in their 7nm part in 2021/22... it might be an interesting fight. Of course it seems like there is a very real possibility that it will fail very hard. Getting 3D stacking to work without heat and cross talk issues on a low power ARM part is one thing. Getting it to work on a 5ghz x86 core is something else. The advantage to AMDs design is the chiplets are 1 not fabbed together so yields will ALWAYS be better then Intels very complicated one hunk of material design. It is also easier to cool... AMDs 8 core chiplets are physically no where near each other and much easier to cool then having them sitting on top of each other. (I guess unless Intel is gong to go back to giving us CPU slots and try and cool the front and back of the thing.

Anyway my point... the fight is coming. But right now Intel and NVidia are both showing off very much concept work that has no relation to actual shipping parts.
 
I maybe incorrect, but I believe intel has some large architectural problems that are not easy to overcome either.
 
Aireoth said:
I maybe incorrect, but I believe intel has some large architectural problems that are not easy to overcome either.
Click to expand...

I am not aware any major arch problems.

Intel has more of an entrenched fat margin mindset problem. Intel could have enabled Hyper threading on it's desktop parts, and been MUCH more competitive against parts like the Ryzen 3600 6C/12T, but instead Intels 6 Core desktops have HT disabled, so all of them are 6C/6T, this not only ensures Ryzen wins practically all high thread production benches, but it also gives glitchy Intel 6C/6T performance in a couple of games, making Intel 6 core desktop parts worse for almost everyone.

This isn't a case of HT being broken, they just turned it off on all their 6 core desktop and handed AMD an easy victory on equal core counts.

So why did they do something so dumb? So the 6C/12T, didn't compete with the 8C/8T i7, ok... But wait why is HT turned off on the i7?? It's so it doesn't compete with Intel's i9 8C/12T CPU.

Basically Intel hamstrung most of their desktop lineup, so they could install one extra Fat Margin part on top of the stack.

Intel is still obsessed with the fat margins they used the receive when they had no competition, and still acting like they can get away with it.

Which is why their enthusiast sales have been decimated.

Their fat margin mindset is a much bigger issue than any architectural issue.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Intel repeating history seems odd?
Click to expand...
Core already existed when they were failing with Netburst. They don't have a backup to improve upon today. I'm not saying they can't pull another great advance, especially with their size and talent, but it's not a given either.
 
Meeho said:
Core already existed when they were failing with Netburst. They don't have a backup to improve upon today. I'm not saying they can't pull another great advance, especially with their size and talent, but it's not a given either.
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They don't have 'backups', they have improved architectures.

NightReaver said:
When they have such a small sample of such events happening? Yes. It's pure speculation.

Will they recover? Most likely yes. Will it be perfect? Could be, might not be. We'll see.
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So is any speculation that anything released by AMD in the future, but the speculation about Intel is far more grounded historically.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
They don't have 'backups', they have improved architectures.



So is any speculation that anything released by AMD in the future, but the speculation about Intel is far more grounded historically.
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Yes, it's speculation. I'm not speculating anything about AMD though. Only commenting on people thinking Intel is going to auto win next time. To me it's as silly as the other side saying Intel is doomed.
 
NightReaver said:
Yes, it's speculation. I'm not speculating anything about AMD though. Only commenting on people thinking Intel is going to auto win next time. To me it's as silly as the other side saying Intel is doomed.
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Well, Intel has already shown that they can easily extract more IPC. The only thing missing is the process node, and if TSMC can do it, Intel can do it.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
So is any speculation that anything released by AMD in the future, but the speculation about Intel is far more grounded historically.
Click to expand...
The difference is AMD has to keep improving on what they have while Intel has to bring something new. Not literally, but along those lines. I don't think another iteration of Core architecture will cut it for much longer. I would guess that gives people more confidence on who is more likely to deliver in the short term.
 
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Snowdog said:
I am not aware any major arch problems.

Intel has more of an entrenched fat margin mindset problem. Intel could have enabled Hyper threading on it's desktop parts, and been MUCH more competitive against parts like the Ryzen 3600 6C/12T, but instead Intels 6 Core desktops have HT disabled, so all of them are 6C/6T, this not only ensures Ryzen wins practically all high thread production benches, but it also gives glitchy Intel 6C/6T performance in a couple of games, making Intel 6 core desktop parts worse for almost everyone.

This isn't a case of HT being broken, they just turned it off on all their 6 core desktop and handed AMD an easy victory on equal core counts.

So why did they do something so dumb? So the 6C/12T, didn't compete with the 8C/8T i7, ok... But wait why is HT turned off on the i7?? It's so it doesn't compete with Intel's i9 8C/12T CPU.

Basically Intel hamstrung most of their desktop lineup, so they could install one extra Fat Margin part on top of the stack.

Intel is still obsessed with the fat margins they used the receive when they had no competition, and still acting like they can get away with it.

Which is why their enthusiast sales have been decimated.

Their fat margin mindset is a much bigger issue than any architectural issue.
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Your not wrong it is about margins. In general if a company is disabling features on a chip its related to fab yields. AMD gains the victory by being able to have a higher % of working chiplets vs Intel monolithic parts. AMD can disable the 2 weakest cores on a chip and slap it in a 3600 or 3900 very easily. Intels fab issues seem to effect iGPU and HT bits based on their SKUs. AMD gets the win its much easier to just disable the 2 weakest cores on every part and still be able to use 2 of them to sell a pretty high end consumer part. Intels cast off parts end up in low margin SKUs... while AMD has found away to use basically their cast offs to sell high end parts.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
Well, Intel has already shown that they can easily extract more IPC. The only thing missing is the process node, and if TSMC can do it, Intel can do it.
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As said, I'm sure Intel will recover. I hope they do, it's critical to keep the competition up. I'm just not going to go all in that it will be a grand slam return bringing them back to former glory.

Just as history repeats itself, there's also a first time for everything.
 
Snowdog said:
I am not aware any major arch problems.

Intel has more of an entrenched fat margin mindset problem. Intel could have enabled Hyper threading on it's desktop parts, and been MUCH more competitive against parts like the Ryzen 3600 6C/12T, but instead Intels 6 Core desktops have HT disabled, so all of them are 6C/6T, this not only ensures Ryzen wins practically all high thread production benches, but it also gives glitchy Intel 6C/6T performance in a couple of games, making Intel 6 core desktop parts worse for almost everyone.

This isn't a case of HT being broken, they just turned it off on all their 6 core desktop and handed AMD an easy victory on equal core counts.

So why did they do something so dumb? So the 6C/12T, didn't compete with the 8C/8T i7, ok... But wait why is HT turned off on the i7?? It's so it doesn't compete with Intel's i9 8C/12T CPU.

Basically Intel hamstrung most of their desktop lineup, so they could install one extra Fat Margin part on top of the stack.

Intel is still obsessed with the fat margins they used the receive when they had no competition, and still acting like they can get away with it.

Which is why their enthusiast sales have been decimated.

Their fat margin mindset is a much bigger issue than any architectural issue.
Click to expand...


Spectre and meltdown come to mind.
 
Meeho said:
The difference is AMD has to keep improving on what they have while Intel has to bring something new. Not literally, but along those lines. I would guess that gives people more confidence on who is more likely to deliver in the short term.
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They're in the same position: they are both working on improving what they have.
 
IdiotInCharge said:
They're in the same position: they are both working on improving what they have.
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Correct, and I'm confused by implications to the contrary. I have some familiarity with absolute beast of R&D that Intel has - do not underestimate them, or how things will go in the next couple years. I know Dr Su doesn't.

Intel's in a gunfight they have not experienced recently to be sure. A combination of corporate malaise and fab problems gave AMD a bay window opportunity to do exactly what they've done. They had a good product at a good price at a great time. They also have a CEO who is not only not clinically retarded, but actually one of the smartest people I've ever met. I'd admit I'm a huge fan, but also put forth this is based upon a lot of historical knowledge of her, not that I believe she's magically created Ryzen or something.

My adulation of Su is not meant to detract from any of AMD's victories and successes. Far from it. I'm thrilled they're in the game, and 50% of the machines my house run various Ryzens right now.

I am urging caution to the seemingly-unbridled exuberance and belief for some that Intel is hosed, or that they are somehow not pursuing responses with horrific intensity. I assure everyone - they are. As Dan_D has mentioned a few times, design cycles do not happen quickly. There will be competent responses. The only questions will be when, and what the rollout looks like.

I've been in the industry since the 90s, and both have ebbed and flowed. Both have come back, both have dominated at various times. This is normal business.
 
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Few doubt that Intel will engineer and/or bully themselves out of the current setback. It just won't be a short term walk in the park is what most are saying and there are tangible design advantages that AMD currently enjoys.
 
Meeho said:
How's that working out for them with their HEDT line?

And it's a fascinating mindset. When Intel is in the lead, they are smarter and more advanced, but when AMD is it's meh, that's easy and everyone can do it better, they just didn't choose to yet. Well, not that fascinating, just fanboyish.
Click to expand...

ouch, quoted for facts :D
 
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