From ATI to AMD back to ATI? A Journey in Futility @ [H]

EODetroit said:
Did you buy or sell the proper options to profit from this Kyle? Whenever I read something on Seeking Alpha or a similar site, I know they'd love to have the inside knowledge you just had and wouldn't hesitate one second to leverage it as much as possible (not that I agree with it).
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Most likely would be considered insider trading as the information wasn't made publicly available.
 
not a lot of money, but bought a few at $2.40 5 years ago with the long term goal to sell at $8. sold 75% of them a few weeks ago at $8.19.

bought some (about 70% of initial shares) again at $9.65 yesterday. the 25% initial purchase I will hold till next summer.

trying to figure out when to sell the new shares to lock in my gains. someone here shorted it a few weeks ago and its only been going up. it can go either way so i dont want to take too much of a risk.
 
Pusher of Buttons said:
I bought 100 shares after the RX480 was released in the summer at 5.11 a share just to say I did....has been looking like a good decision for awhile.
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The stock is only going up due to upgrades on the premise that Intel and NVidia is doing well then AMD must as well. So as fast as it went up it can go down. So plan the exit so you come out with profit.
 
Shintai said:
The stock is only going up due to upgrades on the premise that Intel and NVidia is doing well then AMD must as well. So as fast as it went up it can go down. So plan the exit so you come out with profit.
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Well, they're going up due to years of bad business practices being turned around. They're still worth a fraction of what NVIDIA and Intel are, but they're paying off debt and at least keeping a foot in the race. They've stopped trying to straight up beat Intel and NVIDIA and are looking to compete at the lower level while getting their fingers in every pie they can find. The Intel deal could be great, of course, but they're also in both console systems, they've been closing out a bunch of good sized custom chip deals, they're moving into both Google and Ali Baba's cloud platforms....and they still have Zen and Vega on tap.

They don't HAVE to be better than Intel or NVidia. They need to be 90% as good at 80% of the price. And IF Zen overachieves and actually beats Intel in some areas, look out. AMD stock has exploded in the past when they've had superior products, ie. the early Athlon and early x64/multicore days. Same thing for Vega. The RX480 got them a ton of sales and it's a great example of the model.

With that said, there's room for everyone. I use whatever gives me the best value at the time. Right now AMD CPUs and mobile GPU lines kind of suck, so my desktop is a Haswell with an RX480 and my laptop is a Skylake with a GTX1060....when Zen and Vega come out I hope to be able to re-do my desktop situation a bit. But this is the way MOST consumers are. Not brand driven, value driven. And If AMD can nail their price points there is plenty of room for them.
 
Shintai said:
The stock is only going up due to upgrades on the premise that Intel and NVidia is doing well then AMD must as well. So as fast as it went up it can go down. So plan the exit so you come out with profit.
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Thats not the whole story Shintai. Yeah, if Intel and Nvidia are enjoying growing markets, then AMD, competing in those markets, should be able to get some of that growth, but conversely, AMD is the underdog and at the end of the day, if Nvidia and Intel are doing well, their ability to overstep AMD increases, until AMD can't compete and falls out and that is why AMD's stock prospects have been low as they were. The stock is rising on the basis of the upcoming Zen and Vega launch, a decent Polaris launch, Alibaba and Google data center deals, this potential Intel deal, and Leadership team under Lisa Su that has managed to relieve its debt obligations and financials from overwhelming them short term, and overall, project an image conductive to future growth and competition.

But your recommendation is spot on. Zen launch is going to be the point where people are going to have to decide if holding AMD is a good idea, or if it might just be better to be cautious and pull back.
 
Bud Fox advices all AMD shareholders to sell.. Sell.. SELL!!

BN_PJ430_sheen0_J_20160812091804.jpg


Look likes Charlie has 2 and a half screens!!
 
pendragon1 said:
kinda amazing what one comment from you can/has cause/d :)
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Well, have to have a LITTLE credibility too. ;) That said, at this time I am still sticking with the tech showing up in Intel iGPU rather than just a deal for the patents. That may change, but I truly do not think that is the plan at the time I got the information.
 
SighTurtle said:
Thats not the whole story Shintai. Yeah, if Intel and Nvidia are enjoying growing markets, then AMD, competing in those markets, should be able to get some of that growth, but conversely, AMD is the underdog and at the end of the day, if Nvidia and Intel are doing well, their ability to overstep AMD increases, until AMD can't compete and falls out and that is why AMD's stock prospects have been low as they were. The stock is rising on the basis of the upcoming Zen and Vega launch, a decent Polaris launch, Alibaba and Google data center deals, this potential Intel deal, and Leadership team under Lisa Su that has managed to relieve its debt obligations and financials from overwhelming them short term, and overall, project an image conductive to future growth and competition.

But your recommendation is spot on. Zen launch is going to be the point where people are going to have to decide if holding AMD is a good idea, or if it might just be better to be cautious and pull back.
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Well the reason why AMD's stock price has gone up, is because of the potential of AMD to becoming healthy again is quite imminent and because the stock was under priced, now if Zen can hold up it will go up to 15 if not, well I think as you stated, its going to fall again.
 
Presbytier said:
I'd hold onto shares till the 12th then dump them before AMD can disappoint us on the 13th.
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I would drop or keep AMD based on leaks, within the two weeks to a month prior to Zen's launch because those leaks will be telling.

The hype also creates a ballooning effect of the stock price, so right now we are in that phase with all that hype.

of course you need to weigh which leaks are credible or not, but that is easy to do if you take AMD's best numbers and go from there, there is enough information they have shared to figure this out.
 
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I just hope we're getting back to a time where there was serious competition....I loved the early 2000s of system building. Real competition from good products on both sides trading blows....Athlons dominating one benchmark and P4s another, GeForce vs Radeon....the CPU market is largely stale and has been since the Core and Phenoms were battling. Even if you're an Intel/NVidia fanboy you have to admit the competition is what's made great products. The 1000 series NVidia cards are amazing, they wouldn't have any reason to release that big of a step between generations if AMD wasn't right on their heals. The Skylake/Kabylake....meh....Intel has no real reason to do much there. Haswell is still perfectly fine, and I'm sure Ivy/Sandy Bridge machines are still capable with the right video card of keeping pace. That race needs serious jumpstart.
 
oROEchimaru said:
Kyle just made AMD a crapton of money, AMD please play nice.
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Seriously, thank you Kyle. When I bough AMD years ago at $5.50 a share, I had until just recently figured that it was a loss. So much so that I stopped tracking it. Needless to say, I was shocked when I logged in to my brokerage account and saw it trading at $10 a share. In all seriousness though, I just hope AMD will be able to rise once more and bevome a serious alternative once again.
 
Kyle, I hope you aren't glued to your phone/email waiting for that apology + thank you combo message from them. :p
 
So... is somebody going to die over this information leaking?

I'm imagining Kyle hiding in a ventilation grate as AMD/Intel execs are making their super secret deals. Or perhaps secrets being leaked from Roy Taylor's lips after a successful seduction.
 
SeymourGore said:
So... is somebody going to die over this information leaking?

I'm imagining Kyle hiding in a ventilation grate as AMD/Intel execs are making their super secret deals. Or perhaps secrets being leaked from Roy Taylor's lips after a successful seduction.
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I wish it was that cloak and dagger.

And I have a loaded .45 wthin reach at most times, so I doubt I am going to die over this information leaking. ;)
 
Nauseous said:
i think they are just moving from the intel stuff they were working on to the amd stuff.
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Still unsubstantiated.

There's nothing that suggests this isn't just another patent licensing deal so Intel can continue using their own iGPU designs.

nVidia's expire, Intel licenses AMD's for less.

And even though it's being reported that Kyle 'broke' the news, it's been reported on earlier this year that it would likely happen.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3045...o-amd-for-radeon-graphics-tech-licensing.html

Mar 18, 2016

Intel could dump Nvidia for a licensing deal with AMD as the chip giant tries to prop up its patent portfolio.

Currently, Intel is under a $1.5 billion licensing agreement with Nvidia, which the two companies signed in 2011. At the time, the two companies had spent years fighting each other in courts over patent licensing, and the agreement put all that litigation to rest.

Intel’s Nvidia deal is set to expire on March 17, 2017, and a recent report by Bloomberg claimed that Intel is now looking to cut a deal with AMD instead.
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Did Intel use nVidia's tech in their iGPUs? Nope. Just a CYA patent licensing move. No reason to think the AMD situation is exactly the same.
 
Ieldra said:
This

Premium VR expe- mmmrrrgagagrgagga *muffled screams*
images
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That made me LOL loud enough that I garnered attention.

rat said:
And even though it's being reported that Kyle 'broke' the news, it's been reported on earlier this year that it would likely happen.
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Well, likely to happen, and has already happened, are two very different things. That said, no other tech journalist has verified this, so who knows? ;)
 
NKD said:
Again and again we have to say this. Please read up on what happened in 2011. It is a court issue more like a settlement. Intel didnt want to have anything to do with nvidia. This was never something they both mutually agreed on. So they paid them off, if they used nvidia technology they would be stuck with them even longer. Intel didn't go to nvidia and said we need your technology please help, it only happened because of a legal issue.
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i know that. but the license still give intel access to nvidia IP. if intel simply want to develop better gpu they don't need to go the hurdles making new agreement with AMD when they can already get that with their current agreement with nvidia. unless it is one of this two:

1) intel no longer want to pumping more money to nvidia. so instead of pay licencing term with nvidia they turn to AMD instead. AMD might end up costing intel cheaper as well. but intel have no what so ever desire to integrate AMD tech directly into their gpu

2) intel indeed want AMD gpu tech into their gpu. but they did not want simply to license the tech from AMD. they want to snatch RTG themselves away from AMD. Raja was supposed to make that happen?
 
Pusher of Buttons said:
You also realize that right now, with NVIDIA pushing into HPC and the server market, they're ultimately a bigger threat to Intel's bottom line than AMD, right? I'm assuming Intel doesn't want to keep funding the people working their hardest to put them out of business. AMD and Intel both compete on x86 chips and as long as software designers keep making software for x86 there is enough business for both of them. If ARM or GPU technologies take off, THAT hurts Intel's bottom line far more than AMD taking a 5% chunk of the x86 server market. AMD plays in the professional space, but their bread and butter is lower cost consumer grade hardware. NVIDIA is going directly after a market that Intel has essentially owned 100% for decades, and right now has way more R&D budget ot throw at it than AMD. I sure know who I'd think is the bigger threat to my company in that scenario.
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i'm am very aware about that. right now among the tech company out there nvidia probably intel no.1 threat list. nvidia push a lot effort to make GPGPU to be accepted in HPC and professional space that used to be dominated by x86. hence i was thinking the move to license the required IP from nvidia to AMD doesn't have much to do with integrating AMD tech in intel iGPU but more like intel simply don't want to pumping more money to a company that becoming a direct threat to them.
 
Pusher of Buttons said:
I just hope we're getting back to a time where there was serious competition....I loved the early 2000s of system building. Real competition from good products on both sides trading blows....Athlons dominating one benchmark and P4s another, GeForce vs Radeon....the CPU market is largely stale and has been since the Core and Phenoms were battling. Even if you're an Intel/NVidia fanboy you have to admit the competition is what's made great products. The 1000 series NVidia cards are amazing, they wouldn't have any reason to release that big of a step between generations if AMD wasn't right on their heals. The Skylake/Kabylake....meh....Intel has no real reason to do much there. Haswell is still perfectly fine, and I'm sure Ivy/Sandy Bridge machines are still capable with the right video card of keeping pace. That race needs serious jumpstart.
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but funny thing is competition is also what kills some of these companies. just look how many graphic card company did we have at the late 90s / early 2000s. but because of competition they end up killing and devouring each other.
 
This promotion sounds more to me like AMD admitting their CPUs aren't worth buying.

That's not discouraging at all.
 
Quix said:
This promotion sounds more to me like AMD admitting their CPUs aren't worth buying.

That's not discouraging at all.
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It's hardly a secret that's the case, and they have a new CPU being released next month so maybe think they can afford to do that. Such things have precedents in the industry, for example in 2003 Nvidia made a parody video of their own Geforce FX series GPU's which were a complete flop. It is surprising AMD allowed RTG to do this though, I guess that somewhat support Kyle's view that they are gonna separate from AMD. It's a pretty big deal, we have seen Radeon benchmarks with Intel CPU's but doing a joint promotion together is a whole new level.

renz496 said:
"the rebellion gets a new ally"

Rebellion against AMD? :p
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That's exactly what I thought. At this point, maybe that's what they meant? Who knows anymore? We're living in interesting times, better wait and see how all this pans out than speculate.
 
I thought we were talking embedded CPU... this is weird. I guess Zen is a complete bust. Is AMD afraid they'll go bankrupt if they don't get enough holiday sales?
 
renz496 said:
i know that. but the license still give intel access to nvidia IP. if intel simply want to develop better gpu they don't need to go the hurdles making new agreement with AMD when they can already get that with their current agreement with nvidia. unless it is one of this two:

1) intel no longer want to pumping more money to nvidia. so instead of pay licencing term with nvidia they turn to AMD instead. AMD might end up costing intel cheaper as well. but intel have no what so ever desire to integrate AMD tech directly into their gpu

2) intel indeed want AMD gpu tech into their gpu. but they did not want simply to license the tech from AMD. they want to snatch RTG themselves away from AMD. Raja was supposed to make that happen?
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There is actually a difference there. The nvidia license was because Intel infringed their patents with the tech in their integrated graphics and by court settlement was ordered to license the patents. Where the AMD deal is likely different is AND actually makes better integrated graphics hardware than Intel and licensing the tech makes much more sense. Intel really doesn't compete with AMD (thanks to those fact AMD hasn't made a competitive product in years), but they do compete with nvidia in several areas. If intels integrated gpu where good enough for OEM to not need to stick a dedicated nvidia card in them that deprives revenue from one of the few companies that really competes with Intel.
 
that vid is 1 1/2 old. so "went looking for/had saved for future use" is more appropriate. I'm sure you ranted about it back then too...
 
Ieldra said:
While we're on the topic of marketing gaffes I found this gem

Youtube video

4GB HBM exceeds the capabilities of even 12GB GDDR5, they said.
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Until AMD stops blatantly lying like this in their marketing I won't even consider looking at them.

The deal seems like a good one for the price, but AMD haven't yet released a product that they haven't wildly lied about the performance of in at least 5 years, so the above statement applies. I won't support a company that consistently and so obviously lies about their own products.
 
Cobalt35 said:
Until AMD stops blatantly lying like this in their marketing I won't even consider looking at them.

The deal seems like a good one for the price, but AMD haven't yet released a product that they haven't wildly lied about the performance of in at least 5 years, so the above statement applies. I won't support a company that consistently and so obviously lies about their own products.
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I haven't seen AMD lying about Polaris, they kept expectations low. If people want to believe the hype generated by wccftech and shit then its their fault. AMD even tried to shut him by getting under NDA about his bullshit stories about the card overclocking to 1600mhz.

So they have improved a bit since then, it was a bad decision to go with HBM for them. It was probably because they had a part in developing it so they had vested interest in it. But I do believe 8GB HBM2 should be pretty decent amount of memory. The bandwidth of HBM does help it a bit no doubt. But no 4gb hbm is not better than 12gb gddr5. But I wont argue 4GB HBM has held surprisingly well on the fury cards.
 
Cobalt35 said:
Until AMD stops blatantly lying like this in their marketing I won't even consider looking at them.

The deal seems like a good one for the price, but AMD haven't yet released a product that they haven't wildly lied about the performance of in at least 5 years, so the above statement applies. I won't support a company that consistently and so obviously lies about their own products.
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Guess you were under a rock when they launched the 7970? 290x did really damn well too once freed from the reference coolers, I remember it upsetting a certain card called a titan.
 
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