DDR4 Prices are Falling

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by AlphaAtlas, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. AlphaAtlas

    AlphaAtlas Gawd Staff Member

    Messages:
    1,016
    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2018
    According to a recent report by DRAMeXchange, DDR4 prices are starting to fall. They say the average price of a 8GB DRAM module dropped just over 10% QoQ, from $68 to $61. The research firm "does not discount the possibility of further price declines in November and December. Also, the price decline of 8GB solutions will continue to surpass that of 4GB solutions because DRAM suppliers are now eager to sell off their inventory." Trendforce's analysis focuses on bulk shipments, not low-volume, high-speed, high margin DDR4 kits for custom PCs, but the IC price reductions should eventually trickle down to everyone.

    PC-OEMs have not been able to step up their product shipments in 2H18 due to the shortage of Intel CPUs. Going forward, the pressure of rising component costs will only mount as the shipment season transitions from the peak period to the slow period. Since DRAM prices had risen for nine consecutive quarters, they are expected to take a plunge as they move past the inflection point. The sliding ASP in the PC DRAM market will also add to the downward pressure on prices of PC DRAM modules, leading to large and sudden drops. Looking ahead to 1Q19, seasonal headwinds will affect shipments of end products not only in the PC market but also in the server and smartphone markets. Furthermore, the quarter will be the period for the channel market and OEMs to eliminate excess inventory. Thus, negotiating contracts will be very challenging for the DRAM suppliers. The ASP in the whole DRAM market is forecast to fall by as much as around 20% YoY in 2019, according to DRAMeXchange’s latest analysis. After reaching peak profit in 3Q18, DRAM suppliers are now optimizing their costs so that they will have a soft landing in 2019 as prices are marked down every quarter.
     
    DrezKill and SticKx911 like this.
  2. Oldmodder

    Oldmodder Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    294
    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2018
    Good, i am 48 Gb short of my target.
     
    SickBeast, N4CR, c3k and 1 other person like this.
  3. Joust

    Joust [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,499
    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2017
    I am 128 gb short of my target.
     
  4. gxp500

    gxp500 Gawd

    Messages:
    797
    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2015
    I am 640k short of my target...
     
  5. Twisted Kidney

    Twisted Kidney 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,279
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2013
    You'll never need more than 640k anyway.
     
  6. Oldmodder

    Oldmodder Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    294
    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2018
    Well i did honestly consider going for a 16Gb module, but with my current economy i would only be able to afford 1, and with the 8 sockets of my thread ripper even the two 8Gb modules i have seem so sad to look at.
    But im good with 64GB and it will be a first for me after having been at 32Gb since i changed to DDR3 way back in the day.
     
  7. jmilcher

    jmilcher 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,896
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2008
    Or a mouse. People would hate a pointing device.
     
    dgz and nEo717 like this.
  8. purple_monster

    purple_monster Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    203
    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2018
    this is really good news. ram prices have really been hurting me and my family in this terrible chip economy. my pc got a fx-6300, 16gb ddr3, and 7950hd. cannot afford to upgrade entire pc, so thought would just do video card. wanted at 1070 ti, but cpu wouldn't give me all the frames for my $$$. so wanted to upgrade cpu to i5 8400. can afford mobo combo, but not $150 for new ram since my ddr3 cannot use with newer cpus. so cant do that, best i could do was a crypto farmed gtx 1060 from ebay for $150. probably added 2 years life to my system, but from these memory prices i might be able to sell enough plasma to get a new cpu/mobo/and new ram by then.
     
  9. Jovian

    Jovian Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    360
    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2004
    Would love to get 2x16GB DDR4 for the next rig. Fall hard memory prices.
     
  10. Creig

    Creig Gawd

    Messages:
    781
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2004
    I paid $92 for a 2 x 8GB kit of G.SKILL TridentZ DDR4 3000 at the end of 2015 on Newegg. That exact same kit is still at $149 today nearing the end of 2018. I've never seen memory prices as crazy as these have been.
     
  11. Teenyman45

    Teenyman45 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,181
    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2010
    This is the second, or is it third?, great memory price fixing cartel. Once it's just down to Samsung and a chinese knockoff then you'll really see some consumer friendly pricing.
     
    jnemesh and N4CR like this.
  12. IndyColtsFan

    IndyColtsFan Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    182
    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    B die sure hasn’t declined much and is still around $200 +/- for 16 GB.
     
  13. Master_shake_

    Master_shake_ Little Bitch

    Messages:
    8,383
    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    hmm seems like a good time to have a fire.
     
    GoldenTiger, SickBeast and dgz like this.
  14. Icon_Charlie

    Icon_Charlie [H]Lite

    Messages:
    101
    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2018
    Average... expected... I see nothing... and to be honest. This is the first time in my over 28 years of building rigs that when using the same parts from last year, buying from the same places for those parts, the overall price for a computer that I built "last year went" up in price. We are already in Cyber Month and have predicted that there will be no real values in components that you have seen last year. Companies and middle men have artificially raise prices previously so when Cyber Month gets rolling they can say there is a SALE SALE SALE!!!. Nothing man just bullshit being thrown.

    Yea Ryzen CPU's went down, but my memory, my computer case, my DVD player (yes I watch movies on my Computer like all 225 episodes of Have Gun will Travel). Even my Mother board went up in price.... From last year....

    I'll believe it when I see it.
     
    Concillian likes this.
  15. Patton187

    Patton187 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    478
    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2012
    Lol you've still got that title. Always gets me.
     
  16. workshop35

    workshop35 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    484
    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    because samsung and chinese knockoffs would be a better situation than now....and the only way the chinese will be making anything halfway decent is if they steal the tech and then good luck getting that imported to the states
     
  17. /dev/null

    /dev/null [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2001
    I'm 96GB short of my target. Trying to decide if I should pay $250 for 3 more 32GB chips to hit 256GB....
     
  18. Susquehannock

    Susquehannock 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,090
    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2005
    Still DDR5 short of my target.
     
  19. robjordan406

    robjordan406 [H]Lite

    Messages:
    77
    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2018
    Good, I need to build a good 16 gb RamDisk on my system for fast game loads...
     
  20. acquacow

    acquacow Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    335
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2016
    AlphaAtlas, bringing you last month's news today!

    We'll add this to the pile of other DRAM price-tracking threads on this forum.
     
  21. JargonGR

    JargonGR Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    435
    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2006
    I am at my target! Zero need for more than 64GB that I have - I rarely exceed 32GB of usage right now so I sitting good.
     
  22. acquacow

    acquacow Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    335
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2016
  23. DejaWiz

    DejaWiz Oracle of Unfortunate Truths

    Messages:
    19,759
    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2005
    Ram (and now GPU) prices, have been keeping me away from a full overhaul for a couple of years, now.

    I miss the sub-$20 8GB DDR3 module prices years ago. Before some "disasters" hit and those same modules quickly shot up to over $60 each...
     
  24. Nytegard

    Nytegard 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,373
    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2004
    When I built my latest computer a couple months ago, I was shocked to see that the same exact memory I have costed more than when I originally bought it bundled with the motherboard.
     
  25. aokman

    aokman Gawd

    Messages:
    595
    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2012
    I remember paying $220 for gskill 32GB 3200.... those where the days
     
    DejaWiz likes this.
  26. Burticus

    Burticus 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,459
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    Where DRAM prices fall, the margin will be filled with LED disco light bling. Everywhere. Soon the entire sticks will be able to be used as road flares.
     
    dgz, NeoNemesis and Master_shake_ like this.
  27. viper1152012

    viper1152012 Gawd

    Messages:
    965
    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Bought 64gb of quad channel over a year ago for 370 it sky rocketed to 800 now its down to 700 and falling... What a ride
     
  28. N4CR

    N4CR 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2011
    This is why I'm going for no less than 32Gb next time around, 64Gb if possible without penalty.
    Even with 16Gb running games in Ramdisks is amazing and a Threadripper would be paradise for that.
     
  29. Kdawg

    Kdawg Gawd

    Messages:
    903
    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2017
    still too high. I remember when 4gb was less than $10 just a few years ago.

    so 8gb would have to be $20 max
     
  30. Factum

    Factum [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,396
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2014
    The 128 GB DDR4 ECC modules doesn't seem affacted by this...but then again....that cost is low compared to the software licenses running *shrugs*
     
  31. swetmore

    swetmore 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,610
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2004
    Still in silent protest as I remain on my 4790k with 32GB ram.. Prices are going to have to crash before I take the market seriously.
     
    ManofGod likes this.
  32. motomonkey

    motomonkey [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,275
    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2009
    Bah, I can remember paying over $100 for a 128Kb chip for my Tandy 1000 SL, ahhh, sweet 640K!

    Getting 16GB at those prices would be.... painful. roughly $1.28 million dollars I think.

    EDIT: that's in 1988 dollars, adjusted for inflation... $2.6 Million in todays money/
     
  33. jnemesh

    jnemesh [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,053
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2013
    What's the current price looking like on Samsung B-Die? Right...still higher now than it was in July...
     
  34. Burticus

    Burticus 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,459
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    Is a ramdisk really that much faster (especially for games) than a m2. nvme samsung pro? Let's pretend $250 gets you a decent 32gb 3000+ kit... same $250 would get you a 500gb nvme drive...

    Not being an ass, I just don't know if it makes that much difference for games.

    edit - should have just searched our forum first (*spoiler alert* not worth the $$ and effort of ramdisk)

    https://hardforum.com/threads/nvme-...a-iii-ssd-game-load-time-comparisons.1911914/
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  35. IndyColtsFan

    IndyColtsFan Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    182
    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    The b-die set I’ve been tracking has dropped maybe $15 since then - it is a GSkill 3200 CL14 kit that was up to $220 and last time I checked, was around $205.
     
  36. Comixbooks

    Comixbooks Ignore Me

    Messages:
    11,818
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2008
    Ram doesn't do anything for performance just get the slowest stuff you can find and you won't have hard lockups.
     
  37. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    14,413
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2005
    Uh....That is completely false & yes it does. Quite significantly on AMD Ryzen systems.

    As far as lockups go. Don't just purchase a random set of RAM, look at your motherboard manufacturers recommended memory & type information available on their website.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  38. jnemesh

    jnemesh [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,053
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2013
    The "AMD Compatible" RAM I purchased is actually HIGHER priced now by about $10 (on a 16GB set) than it was when I purchased it!
     
  39. N4CR

    N4CR 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2011
    These days SSD gives you most of the boost ramdrive gives you for games, so not really worth it for just games, but it feels smoother to me than any other method. That said it could be placebo.
    Where it really seems to help me though is video editing or playing back extremely high frame rate and resolution files and trying to do something else. E.g. 4k/120 Raw @ 20Gbps
     
  40. IndyColtsFan

    IndyColtsFan Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    182
    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    There is a 16 GB Team Dark Pro 3200 CL14 B die set on sale at Newegg for $159 and some of their 10% coupons were working on it, bringing it down to roughly $143. I’ve got two sticks in my system (16 GB total) of the GSkill Ripjaws 3200 CL14 RAM; I think I’m going to hold out and try to replace that with 16 GB sticks instead because I’m not sure if 4 sticks of CL14 RAM @ 3200 will be stable in a Taichi Z370 with an 8700K at 5 GHz. Can anyone comment? Of course from the benches I saw, it doesn’t make that big of a difference in gaming so maybe it doesn’t matter if 4 sticks slows it down a small amount.

    Ironically, I just bought 32 GB of RAM last week (3200 at CL16) for a small server I’m building because it was a decent price and I didn’t actually expect RAM to drop for several months.
     
    jnemesh likes this.
Tags: