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here is my last post at AT..this was 3 years ago....
haven't been back since..that place turned into a cesspool rather quickly with the jr high school mods running rampant .
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Crypto and gpu price going back
- Thread starter Jalseng
- Start date
here is my last post at AT..this was 3 years ago....
haven't been back since..that place turned into a cesspool rather quickly with the jr high school mods running rampant .
Don't even know why this thread was created, mining is a secondary reason for this graphics card shortage. As I mentions before, total card sales yearly is several million sales, ALL the GPU miners in the world, don't even cover a fraction of those sales. AMD even noted this in their last Q call and mentioned the main reason for the shortage, which was RAM shortages, which also explains why nV's cards are also having shortages. Now why is there memory shortages of older tech memory is a concern, is it the price of RAM that is creating the "shortage" another words IHV's/ AIB's can't get the ram a certain price to keep their margins of their cards? Or when the ram manufactures cut production on there ram oh 6 months to 8 months ago do to too much supply close to year ago, miscalculated? I think its combination of both.
PS just because Bitcoin is dropping that doesn't mean crypto is dropping nor does it mean mining is dropping. As I stated also before in another thread, the people that are buying cards when the prices go up, aren't really mining, they don't know WTF they are doing when it comes to mining. I have not seen the mining of alt coins go up or down because of Bitcoin's price fluctuations. Another words, if I'm getting 2000 bucks yesterday from mining when bitcoin was at 20k, I'm still getting those 2000 bucks today when its at 8500 (granted there are fluctuation with the alt coins too, but still the total number of different alt coins covers this pretty well)....... Granted I'm not get the uplift from the price of Bitcoin going up at the time of mining. So some of those 2k days, when bitcoin hit 20k, were then 4k days. But get the picture? Mining isn't hurt or uplifted by Bitcoin prices. The only miners affected directly by bitcoin prices are the people mining bitcoin directly. Which GPU miners are not doing.
And those peak sales are extremely momentary. GPU price hikes have happened for the past 1 month or so. Lets see what nV states in their next Q call about graphics card shortages, pretty sure its going to be memory allocation as well. There might be combination of EOL of Pascal and RAM though.
PS just because Bitcoin is dropping that doesn't mean crypto is dropping nor does it mean mining is dropping. As I stated also before in another thread, the people that are buying cards when the prices go up, aren't really mining, they don't know WTF they are doing when it comes to mining. I have not seen the mining of alt coins go up or down because of Bitcoin's price fluctuations. Another words, if I'm getting 2000 bucks yesterday from mining when bitcoin was at 20k, I'm still getting those 2000 bucks today when its at 8500 (granted there are fluctuation with the alt coins too, but still the total number of different alt coins covers this pretty well)....... Granted I'm not get the uplift from the price of Bitcoin going up at the time of mining. So some of those 2k days, when bitcoin hit 20k, were then 4k days. But get the picture? Mining isn't hurt or uplifted by Bitcoin prices. The only miners affected directly by bitcoin prices are the people mining bitcoin directly. Which GPU miners are not doing.
And those peak sales are extremely momentary. GPU price hikes have happened for the past 1 month or so. Lets see what nV states in their next Q call about graphics card shortages, pretty sure its going to be memory allocation as well. There might be combination of EOL of Pascal and RAM though.
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AltTabbins
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And people will probably move on to a different coin that isn’t efficient with asic. There are so many alt coins out there right now and everyone is trying to be the first to break into them. Day traders who will mine 1000000 coins a day at a value of .000002 cents a coin hoping the price will jump to .00002 cents a coin. Then they cash out before that coin flops, dies, disappears, and another meme coin is created to take its place (that uses GPUs to mine).
Don't even know what this thread was created, mining is a secondary reason for this graphics card shortage. As I mentions before, total card sales yearly is several million sales, ALL the GPU miners in the world, don't even cover a fraction of those sales. AMD even noted this in their last Q call and mentioned the main reason for the shortage, which was RAM shortages, which also explains why nV's cards are also having shortages.
PS just because Bitcoin is dropping that doesn't mean crypto is dropping.
And they are all wrong, unless Lisa Su made things up in their financial calls about ram shortages, which can be verified soon enough by nV's shortages. Prior to AMD's Q call, NO ONE KNEW what was causing the shortages, only an IDIOT would think mining would cause it. If you think the few thousands of people that went out and cleared of the shelves last month and online stores are causing this, you are foolish beyond belief. Do the numbers, what are the total number of GPU's sold per year and figure out how many miners it would take (miners and how many cards they would have to buy) to cause this type of shortage.
PS just because Bitcoin is dropping that doesn't mean crypto is dropping.
And they are all wrong, unless Lisa Su made things up in their financial calls about ram shortages, which can be verified soon enough by nV's shortages. Prior to AMD's Q call, NO ONE KNEW what was causing the shortages, only an IDIOT would think mining would cause it. If you think the few thousands of people that went out and cleared of the shelves last month and online stores are causing this, you are foolish beyond belief. Do the numbers, what are the total number of GPU's sold per year and figure out how many miners it would take (miners and how many cards they would have to buy) to cause this type of shortage.
Right, nvidia is wrong too and you’ve got it figured out. Got it. Gtfo. I’ll pose the same question to you, please point me to a time when mining didn’t exist where we had this type of shortage.
When was the last time we had a vram shortage? Ask AMD, they had issues with DDR4, DDR5, and HBM, and HBM 2 card launches lol. Why didn't nV have any of these problems? Cause they waited for mass production of the tech. Now in this case, what is causing the problems, its an artificial shortage, we already knew memory companies cut back production 6 to 8 months ago, they said they had to, because of last years ram price drops.
So what you are saying is Lisa Su is lieing? Memory companies are also fibbing I guess? nV stated one thing don't sell to miners that are buying from online stores and regular stores, Yes that caused some of the problem, not the entirety, its actually a small problem. There is no way idiot miners that buy cards during peaks of mining craze are doing all this by themselves. I already went through why they can't do it. They can't get a place that would support the power draw levels past like 10 rigs. Its impossible unless they invest into power lines or buildings, which neither are cheap. I have first hand knowledge of this cause I built a mining far in my house, so I had to get more lines into my house to do it. And its not cheap.
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DRAM pricing and availability has fluctuated in the past. It didn’t cause mid range cards to sell for $500+ Used
Agree to your statement
Neither did ANY mining craze in the past either. So that right there tells ya it points to something else (mining could be part of it though, which it definitely is, not the major part of it though). A gtx 1060 or 560 are crap at mining the ROI on those cards are at over 5 months, that is not so good when you have 580, Vega's, 1070's, 1080's, and 1080ti's doing 2 months or less! With the resent drop in cryptomarkets, those RIO's go over 8 months. See why its not the in store and online store buyers doing this shortage?
Worse yet you have 1050 getting price hikes, and miners don't give a shit about those cards! Come on, 1050's are crap at mining. Doing Eth, they will have performance issues with the amount of Vram they have. All 4gb cards have issues with Eth mining. And in other alt coin mining, they just don't have the horse power even though their perf/watt ratio is good.
There’s only been one mining craze in the past and it did affect AMD cards. Miners are using 1050s when that’s all they can get their hands on.
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I'm sure enemy countries are buying up gpu's and using crypto currencies as a way of bypassing sanctions. we'll put a stop to that soon.
NO they are not, as of two months ago, I could still call up PNY, EVGA and ask them to send me 30 1070's and in 1 month I will get them. There is a big difference when buying bulk than when buying one card, they give bulk orders priority. Right now I can't do that. Even if I ask them for 100 cards, they won't do it. They can't do it. Supply is scarce even at the AIB level! They are prioritizing, between OEM's, system builders first before retail!
Here is the 1050 ti ROI
1 buck a day without power draw calculated in.
That is what 200 days for ROI. That is a waste card to mine with.
if you don't believe me
https://whattomine.com/coins?utf8=✓...hanges][]=yobit&dataset=Main&commit=Calculate
Wtf are you talking about?
I buy in bulk, the smallest amounts of cards I buy in is 30 at a time. Which is what I was doing before I stopped growing my mining farm (power limited). Last month, AIB's called me up and told me nV's next gen cards are coming. I asked them about Pascal cards too at this time, will they still have supply of them (just in case next gen doesn't turn out to be as good of a miner card) they told me, as of right now their supply chain has changed and supply of Pascal cards are low. I took it as EOL, after the recent month of how things have been going and what AMD stated in their Q call, its not EOL, its that they just don't have card supplies.
No gamer weren't buying them up. It was all miners and scalpers to sell to the miner buying them up for the past few months.Pay the price to play or go home. I am not sure why it is just the miners driving up the prices for video cards - - Gamers are sucking them up as well - - The shortage is the cause for higher prices. Miners could say, "Those gamers are sucking up all my mining cards"! A GPU is just not a gaming device anymore but more a compute device. I do agree though it sucks having high price video cards, kinda wrecks my plans for a 6 card mining rig -
Ocellaris
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Bullshit, cards were readily available during parts of December. This shortage is only about 5 weeks old and people act like it’s been forever. I bought the cards for my mining rig during that December phase and damn near everything was available.
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That could be true to a certain extent, just more at play than just mining. Unless we get real numbers and the inside scoop, hard to really know. Dense is refusing to see all facts, researching available data, just coming up with a cause, maybe out of thin air and stir in some emotions and crying. Hey before Nvidia got into AI for cars we did not have this problem - hey Nvidia AI GPU's are causing the mass shortage of gaming GPU's - IS AN EXAMPLE.
As for profits, I am still making a profit mining - 2 1080Ti are making almost $10/day. Electrical cost are way below that. The 2 1070's about $6/day. To clarify, unless you cash out on a profit day - cashing out later - you could lose everything mined if the coin goes bust or just fails. In other words all those coins I mined at higher prices have all been dropped, if I cashed out today all those coins will be worth what I can get today and the real mining rewards or profits fixed to that.
This is a video card section, which are used for many things not just gaming unless I am mistaking. There is a demand for GPU's that is going up, once AI cards hit the roads - the real shit is going to hit for supplies. Unless production goes up prices will definitely.
Now I am hoping AMD upcoming RyZen+ and X470 platform, that AMD is smart and actually have bundle deals with reasonably priced video cards. Kinda hard to justify a new system if you can't get all the parts to make one. It would be, in my opinion beneficial for AMD to have some options to allow better sells. OEMs with half the parts would be a failure. This is also an opportunity for AMD to make large sells since they could provide a GPU with their CPU/Mobo while Intel cannot. Unless you buy an Intel with a Vega installed.
oldmanbal
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A LOT of it has to do with the GDDR memory shortages that started getting reported in OCTOBER '17 and still haven't managed to get anywhere near caught up. Lisu SU reported on her last conference call that it was the factor in availability for their cards. Nvidia would be in the same boat unfortunately wether they have reported it or not publicly. We'll get to see how/if this is still affecting cards when Nvidia launches Volta next month. I know I'll be smashing refresh on my browser to get a pair of cards when they hit market.
oldmanbal
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The other lingering issue is that miners do massive selloffs when currency takes a dive, essentially flooding the market with cut price current gen cards that leads to a massive overstock of hardware (remember the firesales of thousands of 290/290x at half price or less?) AMD/NVIDIA operate on small reorder cycles for the most part and try to sell out of all their last gen cards before launching a new product. If they get into another situation (I'm looking at current nose dive of crypto) where the market gets flooded with cheap gpus, they will take massive writeoffs. With the current upward trend in both their stock prices, neither company has any interest in taking a risk like that in this environment.
Yes, large demands is straining all the supplies. Nvidia very successful Tesla line is eating into HBM2 used for Gaming Vega driving up costs. Increase cards used for mining eating up GPU's, memory types etc. Data centers using massive amount of GPU's (that did not exist 5-10 years ago and increasing exponentially since) are eating all the same things. Soon massive amount of GPU's will be used inside of Cars and the list goes on and on.
Of course it is all the miners fault
So some folks will still complain and be concerned about if there are cheap available gaming cards available??? I give up.
Sorry, I was joking - Yes, unpredictable markets does make it hard to predict how much to make and is part of the mining craze problem.
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Thatguybil
Limp Gawd
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There are currently roughly:
8 million 480,580 and 1070 equivalent cards mining ethash (ether being the most common)
1.2 million 480,580 and 1070 equivalent cards mining cryptonote (moNero being the most common)
1.2 million 1070 equivalents mining equihash (nvidia only essentially)
100,000 1070 equivalents mining Lyra2REv2 (nvidia only essentially)
There are other algos but these are the biggest from a market cap standpoint.
So we are talking about a total of 12 million cards used for mining. These 12 million cards were acquired over the past two years. It does not account for all of the previous generation cards that are still mining.
To put that in perspective Nvidia data center business each quarter uses more 1070 equivalents then all the mining cards used on every algorithm put together with the exception of ethhash which is dominated by AMD.
Mining is not the sole cause of the shortage.
8 million 480,580 and 1070 equivalent cards mining ethash (ether being the most common)
1.2 million 480,580 and 1070 equivalent cards mining cryptonote (moNero being the most common)
1.2 million 1070 equivalents mining equihash (nvidia only essentially)
100,000 1070 equivalents mining Lyra2REv2 (nvidia only essentially)
There are other algos but these are the biggest from a market cap standpoint.
So we are talking about a total of 12 million cards used for mining. These 12 million cards were acquired over the past two years. It does not account for all of the previous generation cards that are still mining.
To put that in perspective Nvidia data center business each quarter uses more 1070 equivalents then all the mining cards used on every algorithm put together with the exception of ethhash which is dominated by AMD.
Mining is not the sole cause of the shortage.
Do you have a source for those numbers?
oldmanbal
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So some folks will still complain and be concerned about if there are cheap available gaming cards available??? I give up.
Sorry, I was joking - Yes, unpredictable markets does make it hard to predict how much to make and is part of the mining craze problem.
Consider it like this, If Ati was still an independent company (not owned by amd) and all of a sudden, the mining market crashes, and every single gpu bought by a miner gets put up for sale at less than half the current prices, they wouldn't sell a card for 6 months. That's almost enough time to put a company of that size that relies so heavily on quarter to quarter business completely into debt. Now AMD was able to absorb the debt from Radeon technology group (ATI) during the firesale of 290s, also for the fact that 290s are not their largest market segment at the time. However, nowadays, the 570/580 are such mining powerhouses, that they would essentially be screwed on all fronts if they went firesale territory. Shareholders would lose their shit after the last 2 quarters of Ryzen giving AMD substantial growth and would have a hard time betting on RTG/ATI again. Could potentially see mass shortages of AMD videocards across all market segments, and availability being limited to builders and retail type partners.
oldmanbal
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Yes, large demands is straining all the supplies. Nvidia very successful Tesla line is eating into HBM2 used for Gaming Vega driving up costs. Increase cards used for mining eating up GPU's, memory types etc. Data centers using massive amount of GPU's (that did not exist 5-10 years ago and increasing exponentially since) are eating all the same things. Soon massive amount of GPU's will be used inside of Cars and the list goes on and on.
Of course it is all the miners fault
It's true that HBM2 is also getting a pounding from data centers and AI. Ai is a fairly new market for GPUs to get so much substantial growth in. Memory manufacturors are even more limited by customer orders, as the tech changes roughtly every 12-18 months at best, and can only be sold to extremely solutions like the gpu. I don't see memory making a massive comeback anytime soon considering the investment to implement new lines in fabs, and how soon it would be EOL. This could be a rough situation for the next year or more if demand for gpus and similar solutions don't work themselves out.
Mining market is crashing (another round today) and in my opinion it has not crashed enough (sounds contradictory). There are just too many coins, ridiculas number of what are called coins or currencies, I really don't know the exact or approximate good number that will survive - I am very confident that Crypto Currency is here to stay but the weeding out is just not occurring, at least yet.
As for the mass selling of previously used mining cards, I don't see that happening yet, will there be some? If there was, it would spon sells for computer systems such as AMD new Ryzen+ and motherboards so AMD would be shielded overall. Nvidia has such a cross range of markets, it would be nothing for Nvidia and Nvidia is making money in so many different areas now it probably would not matter - they will continue to grow into a super corporation which they are pretty much destined to become. The AI market will probably be more explosive and disruptive, 10x times more to a 100x more than the mining one, even if Crypto market sorts out the winners and the losers. The time now is way different then the 290 days, particularly for Nvidia, AMD also has a very viable CPU at hand which they did not with the 290s. Just some thoughts.
Thatguybil
Limp Gawd
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You are welcome to double check my math.
Google whattomine
Thanks, never thought to use that source to figure out the mining hardware - pretty smart!!!
Damn! It shows percentages of hashrate changes on what is being mined. Very informative.
Now how in the fuc% did you figure that out?
There are some damn very smart people here!
nah the difficulty levels that is the total hash rates
https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate
Actually according to this, if all miners optimized their cards by what they found on the Inet, there are only
7 million 1070 gpu's (if all these GPU's are 1070's, which they are not) out there on Eth.
Each blockchain has the total hashrates available. So its easy to figure out how many cards are being used for mining.
that is the total hash rates https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate
Actually according to this, if all miners optimized their cards by what they found on the Inet, there are only
7 million 1070 gpu's (if all these GPU's are 1070's, which they are not) out there on Eth.
Each blockchain has the total hashrates available. So its easy to figure out how many cards are being used for mining.
So we should be able to determine when there is a mining crash and possible massive selling of video cards or some heads up by using this data.nah the difficulty levels
https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate
Actually according to this, if all miners optimized their cards by what they found on the Inet, there are only
7 million 1070 gpu's (if all these GPU's are 1070's, which they are not) out there on Eth.
Each blockchain has the total hashrates available. So its easy to figure out how many cards are being used for mining.
yes its very easy to see, cryptomarkets are all about transparency of what it going on in the block chain. Well once things start happening, the causes are harder to understand though lol.
In the past 1 month most coins have dropped 50% in value, but the mining them we didn't see that drop, well not to that degree on a day to day basis. I have noticed when there a big drops in BTC, there are drops on the other coins but those other coins are highly volatile and usually come back to what they were prior to drop in a day or two. At most 1 week. We don't see this drop because as one coin drops, miners autoswitch to another coin that is more profitable. The difficulty is spread out over many coins.
I only try to mine the coins that have solid financial and future projections based on projects those coins are based upon. Yeah its easy to get hosed with things like signatum if you aren't careful. But that is why with coins like that, I only mine them with a small portion of my rigs, actually I only used one rig. Just like with electorneum, only one rig, until they start proving what they are doing in their white papers, I don't put too much into them.
I think most miners are like that too, they go into the major coins, like Eth and have some of the other coins as "get lucky". If it happens great, if not, no real loss. The hash rate charts shows this too.
Lets take today as an example. I normal make around 2k a day with all my rigs, its down to 1750 right now. But once BTC stabilized at 8k a few hours ago. Its back to 1900. Still a bit lower, but there was a rebound. And this is with taking a few rigs off to test some other pools lol.
In the past 1 month most coins have dropped 50% in value, but the mining them we didn't see that drop, well not to that degree on a day to day basis. I have noticed when there a big drops in BTC, there are drops on the other coins but those other coins are highly volatile and usually come back to what they were prior to drop in a day or two. At most 1 week. We don't see this drop because as one coin drops, miners autoswitch to another coin that is more profitable. The difficulty is spread out over many coins.
I only try to mine the coins that have solid financial and future projections based on projects those coins are based upon. Yeah its easy to get hosed with things like signatum if you aren't careful. But that is why with coins like that, I only mine them with a small portion of my rigs, actually I only used one rig. Just like with electorneum, only one rig, until they start proving what they are doing in their white papers, I don't put too much into them.
I think most miners are like that too, they go into the major coins, like Eth and have some of the other coins as "get lucky". If it happens great, if not, no real loss. The hash rate charts shows this too.
Lets take today as an example. I normal make around 2k a day with all my rigs, its down to 1750 right now. But once BTC stabilized at 8k a few hours ago. Its back to 1900. Still a bit lower, but there was a rebound. And this is with taking a few rigs off to test some other pools lol.
I also dispatch my rigs this way. Admittedly at a much lower volume than you.
oldmanbal
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There's a good chance that the market is going to revert to the october/early november numbers, which is essentially where it should be, had bitcoin not exploded into mainstream finance and inflated beyond measure. Unfortunately, there have been some major blows to crypto recently, including the serious one involving credit cards. Now that you can no longer use a major credit card to purchase crypto from an exchange, a lot of the day to day usage of currencies will decline. Before if you wanted to buy steroids or some coke you could just throw 500 bucks in bitcoin on your card and have a field day. Now it's going to require linking bank accounts and just more steps that will drive people off. IMHO that was a serious blow to the industry as a whole. Bitcoin is only valuable as lone as it's backed in USD. When that falls apart, people won't be able to turn that coke into american dollars with it anymore making it worthless. Also the more government interviens, the less open and accessible bitcoin will be. We all know that bitcoin is essentially the market, and other coins are just a means of mining on gpus instead of asics and other custom silicon.
Now regarding Nvidia, yes their growth has seen massive spikes due to ai deep learning, driving, and data centers, but they still invest a massive amountof money into creating consumer GPUs, which has always been a cash cow for them. They know that technology can change at the flip of a coin and losing a solid earner like the consumer gpu market would be a significant risk that could lead to long term instability. I agree with your comments about the 290x days, and was just using that as an example of how the selloffs effect the vendors.
Really.... your probably not even looking for one.
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I've got a R9 285 ITX card in my HTPC that the fan died on, and I'd like to replace, but there's nothing even remotely affordable. I'm not going to pay above MSRP on a mid-tier card on principle, so I'm just riding it out for now. Hopefully we get some more options soon.
On that note, if anyone has a 1060 / RX580 they want to sell for a reasonable price, drop me a PM.
On that note, if anyone has a 1060 / RX580 they want to sell for a reasonable price, drop me a PM.
Why would they?
If you can sell a widget for 1,000 dollars to persons X, why sell it for 500 to person Y?