Blu-ray To Replace DVD Within 3 Years?

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The Blu-ray disc association (they have an association?) said today that it plans on replacing the DVD within 3 years. Good luck with that.

"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association European chairman said at CeBIT, the world's biggest technology trade show.
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Could be possible if they absolutely slash drive prices.

Possible? Yes. Realistic? No.
 
Is it just me, or does this sound like the same arrogant crap Sony has been sputtering the last few years? :eek:
 
No, wait, let's back up. Their PS3 sales clearly indicate this happening.




Sony can barely sell Blu-Ray players that can play games.
 
I am a blureray supporter but I laugh at this. No way I am giving up on my DVD's. I buy alot of TV showes and there is no reason for me to buy ER or Xena on blueray. Hmmm I might be wrong on Xena, seeing Callisto in HD goodness. Pretty convencing.
 
Just another attempt to get more buyers.

I guarantee there are people out there stupid enough to read this and choose Blur-Ray over HDDVD.
 
Nemesis999 said:
Just another attempt to get more buyers.

I guarantee there are people out there stupid enough to read this and choose Blur-Ray over HDDVD.
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Put aside your format preference for a minute- Bluray is outselling HD currently in terms of movie sales and has more of the big-name companies on it's side.

That said, this statement is both bold and stupid. It's the kind of crap that Sony seems to enjoy spouting forth of late. The format war is far from over, and judging from past format wars, DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Notice that VHS players and movies are still in circulation.

That kind of FUD is the worst sort.
 
aramis said:
Put aside your format preference for a minute- Bluray is outselling HD currently in terms of movie sales and has more of the big-name companies on it's side.

That said, this statement is both bold and stupid. It's the kind of crap that Sony seems to enjoy spouting forth of late. The format war is far from over, and judging from past format wars, DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Notice that VHS players and movies are still in circulation.

That kind of FUD is the worst sort.
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I'm not saying that HD or BlueRay is better. I meant that there are people out there that would read this and think it means that Blue-Ray has been chosen as the winner.

I have a preference for neither. I'd much rather that they remove all those shitty "extras" from DVDs and actually use that space for increasing video quality. If someone actually wants to watch that stuff it should be freely downloadable from the Internet. Why do we need a new format when they have to include filler to take up sapce on the current format?
 
Nemesis999 said:
I'm not saying that HD or BlueRay is better. I meant that there are people out there that would read this and think it means that Blue-Ray has been chosen as the winner.
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Anyone who believes things they hear and still makes a large purchase without doing their own research is just asking for it. Personally I can't really feel sorry for people like that. Whenever I'm about to buy anything, I research it to death.
 
Aye. I like when DVDs come with multiple discs, one with the movie and the other with the special features. Doens't happen very much though.
 
I am still waiting for Betamax to take over VHS sales...
 
magnetik said:
I am still waiting for Betamax to take over VHS sales...
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Beta was excellent, I had a beta and a VHS player back then (I was a big baller).. the proprietary junk killed it :(
 
Ockie said:
Anyone who believes things they hear and still makes a large purchase without doing their own research is just asking for it. Personally I can't really feel sorry for people like that. Whenever I'm about to buy anything, I research it to death.
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Whoa, that's Sony's target audience if prices are any indication. ;)
 
3 years?! Haha, whatever! Eventually, yes.

Even if they started cranking out BlueRay players today that were competitive with the price of DVD players (sub $100.00), it would take several years to completely saturate the market. Most households that own TVs, own at least 1 DVD player; “Joe” consumers are typically content. Furthermore, it would take a unanimous decision from all content providers to support BluRay and completely discontinue support for DVD and HD-DVD. Considering that DVD profits heavily outweigh BluRay, it isn’t going to happen anytime soon…
 
"blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd" - really? Care to provide some hard numbers, and not some PR bull from either side? And how many of those are "free" bundled (with PS3) copies of one of the typically crappy Hollywood releases of '06 - Talladega Nights (?). They count as "sales" but it's not like the consumer had a choice in the matter on what they got.

Anyway, the thread topic is *crap*. Another case of Sony-foot-in-mouth disease. Won't happen, sorry bub. It took DVD, what 10 years to penetrate the market sufficiently (over VHS)? Nor do I think the average person is willing to give up a perfectly GOOD SD DVD collection just yet.. HDTVs and blu/hd players are far too expensive still, and we won't see mass adoption until we see far bigger volumes release from either side, and player prices drop to the $100-200 range (tops).

One thing to spur the migration a bit, or perhaps just piss off the consumer. I've seen reports of NEW SD DVD releases coming in bit-rate starved, crappily mastered single layer 'format' recently. A ploy in order to get people to say "hey Blu-ray/HD DVD is WAY better" perhaps, or are they just getting even cheaper on the production costs? And in that case, why don't the prices go DOWN, eh?
 
In 3 years I'll be downloading HD movies FASTER compared to how fast I download HD movies TODAY.
 
It all depends on what they mean by "replace". They could mean that they will sell more Blu-ray than dvd there for replacing dvd as the primary source of media. But a full replace as in nobody buys dvd's anymore wont happen for a long time.....maybe never.
 
The final nails were placed in Blu-Ray's coffin a long time ago, it is now a matter of if, and not when. HD-DVD has got the adult industry behind it (biggest plus), and it has cheap players on the way (much cheaper than the "cheap" BD players on the way).
 
InorganicMatter said:
The final nails were placed in Blu-Ray's coffin a long time ago, it is now a matter of if, and not when. HD-DVD has got the adult industry behind it (biggest plus), and it has cheap players on the way (much cheaper than the "cheap" BD players on the way).
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Then how come BR out sold HD-DVD for the past 2 months.

Also I think White ray would be the highest.
 
InorganicMatter said:
The final nails were placed in Blu-Ray's coffin a long time ago, it is now a matter of if, and not when. HD-DVD has got the adult industry behind it (biggest plus), and it has cheap players on the way (much cheaper than the "cheap" BD players on the way).
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Nails in what coffin?

Adult industry (one vendor actually) determines the direction of the media industry?
 
Only ~16% of the households in the US even have an HDTV. DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
 
Ockie said:
Beta was excellent, I had a beta and a VHS player back then (I was a big baller).. the proprietary junk killed it :(
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same here... along with my beloved laserdisc player. heh. betamax was a superior format.. but that don't mean a damn thing if it isn't supported. :) I think BD will probably be the same..
 
If HD-DVD actually has a vast majority of the porn industry behind it, it has a pretty good shot.
 
If porn is the deciding factor between blu-ray and HD-dvd I will shot myself in the head, or I will shot someone else in the head whatever.
 
Nemesis999 said:
If HD-DVD actually has a vast majority of the porn industry behind it, it has a pretty good shot.
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I think the porn backing is overrated due to a much more efficient and private distribution method available in many more homes than HDTVs: the internet.
 
Well, seeing that the original DVD spec was first formalized around 1995, and it took about 10 years after that for the VASTLY superior DVD format to overtake the video tape format, I can see it taking 20 years for the slightly better Blueray format to overtake the good DVD format.:rolleyes:

Plus you have to remember that not only will you have to buy a new player to see your Blueray disks in the full 1080P format, but you also must purchase a new expensive TV with an HDMI connector that supports the Blueray's encryption rules.:eek:

Oh wait, there is still a format war going on. Really mass adoption will not even start till that mess gets settled.:p

While I admittedly do not watch alot of movies, I did not purchase a DVD player until I found 1 at Bestbuy for 29 bux 3 Christmases ago. (It still works fine to this day.) We just retired our VCR from the front room about a year ago.

I guess whatever association must cheer lead their group, but comeon ya nutjobs, let's at least keep the statements somewhat close to reality.

Don
 
stevedave said:
Then how come BR out sold HD-DVD for the past 2 months.
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heh...Blu-ray in January had 3 movie releases, HD-DVD didn't have any, all the sudden they are THE WINNER!!!

high-def DVDs are a huge luxury right now for the average Joe. It is going to take a while before people plop down Thousands on a TV, HUNDREDS on a player and $30 for a DVD.
 
To compete with DVD, HD players need to be sub $200 and HD movies need to release priced within a couple dollars of their SD DVD counterparts. They've already been doing the "IT'S BETTAR SO THE UNWASHED WILL PAY MOAR!!" strategy, a lot of good that's done. I see an awful lot of dusty HD & Blu discs at Best Buy every tuesday when I buy new DVD releases.
 
Oh yeah, here is something that is starting to piss me off about this stupid "50GB CAPACITY" crap that is repeated by every damn drone on the planet.

I just bought Stranger than Fiction the other day at BB.

Picked up the Blu-ray version, looked at the special features (price $29.99):

Deleted scenes
Funny on-set moments
Multiple behind the scenes featurettes

Picked up the DVD version, looked at the special features (price $17.99):

Deleted scenes
Funny on-set moments
Multiple behind the scenes featurettes


then I started looking at a LOT of Blu-ray movies, almost all the special features are the same. So, other than the way the special features can be accessed, what do I get for my extra $12? What good is "50GB" if there is no more content on the disk than a regular DVD? And this is a SONY film. Sony could be shooting special features in HD for their Blu-ray discs so that even the special features are in HD. Instead, you get the same standard definition special features that you do with the regular DVD.

I tell you what I got for my extra $12, I got two more DVDs from the $4.99 sale and a soda....because I bought the regular widescreen edition of Stranger than Fiction. ;)
 
2x writable Blu-Ray discs are over $20 in most stores. I can buy 100 writable DVDs for that.
 
GJSNeptune said:
No, wait, let's back up. Their PS3 sales clearly indicate this happening.




Sony can barely sell Blu-Ray players that can play games.
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I believe the PS3 outsold the PS2 in their respective timelines and even the 360 no? Sony is selling at a brisk pace given that it is expensive as hell (I bought one but I have disposable income, it was still fucking expensive though) and there are no games. Don't count the PS3 out. It most likely won't dominate like it did last generation, but it isn't dead that's for sure.

Five out of eight major Hollywood studios support only Blu-ray. One studio, Universal, supports only HD DVD.
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This fact alone points towards Blu-Ray winning. How can it not.

The HD DVD promotional group, in a separate presentation, said consumers should not only focus on the big blockbuster titles from Hollywood, but also those from regional film houses in Europe and Asia which would bring many titles to HD DVD because it was cheaper and simpler.
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Ok .... Does this sound desparate to anyone ...
 
I think rather what will really occur is that DVD sections in Video sales areas will become like VHS is now. It is there, but it's small. 3 years is a long time really. Now I don't necessarily think blu ray has it in the bag, but studio support counts. What would be not so funny is if there was some kind of a recall due to the fragility of the disks... oh wait does that bring back a few bad memories Sony?

HD something will likely be the dominant sales in 3 years. Players will be $150-250 and hardrive recording versions will be a hundred or so more. HD TV's will be the only thing sold bigger than 15" as well. 3 years isn't a long time, but it is in this industry. The problem will be that when that comes, discs will be already out of fashion and on their way out. But that's the other side of the coin they aren't talking about now isn't it?

:)
 
deeznuts said:
I believe the PS3 outsold the PS2 in their respective timelines and even the 360 no? Sony is selling at a brisk pace given that it is expensive as hell (I bought one but I have disposable income, it was still fucking expensive though) and there are no games. Don't count the PS3 out. It most likely won't dominate like it did last generation, but it isn't dead that's for sure.
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But when the PS2 was released, Sony wasn't also pushing a new, revolutionary format. For the sake of argument, let's assume that people should go crazy for a new format, especially when a new video game console can handle it. Well, they didn't go crazy.

I know the PS3 isn't dead. I merely can't see Blu-Ray taking over any time soon, especially not within three years, as indicated by the lackluster sales performance of their PS3. I'm sure by the end of three years, Blu-Ray will still be about the same as today, and maybe then Sony will cut prices to something reasonable.

I blame price more than anything. Back in the day you were happy to pay Sony's prices because you got a great, reliable, durable product. Now it's just ridiculous.
 
You might laugh at the Porn industry and it's impact on which format will be the successor to the DVD, but porn was the one that brought VHS to the front of the race in front of Beta.

All in all for home movies there's more porn bought every day than any other movie...lots of stroke crazy folk out there that would want to see a HD jizz squirt on their 56" Plasma pleasure screen, and see every flake of crusted make-up on the washed up old whores that have more traffic than the Golden Gate bridge has ever seen.

Do a search on the internet, you can find several quotes from huge named studios that quote the porn industry as being a industry trend setter.

Who ever has the most support first will win. It'll allow the prices to drop more rapid which allows more people to buy and thus support that standard.

My vote goes for the little heard of but up and coming DVD player that plays Blu-Ray and HD-DVD as well as DVD and CD. It just adjusts the size of the laser.
 
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