AMD Thinks Intel's 10nm Stumble will Open Doors

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by Kyle_Bennett, Jun 11, 2018.

  1. Kyle_Bennett

    Kyle_Bennett El Chingón Staff Member

    Messages:
    53,969
    Joined:
    May 18, 1997
    There has been a lot of talk in the press by analysts and others in-the-know, that think Intel is positioned to lose a lot of business due to its bungled transition to 10nm lithography. This article is paywalled at TheInformation, but it will give you one peek for free with your email address, which it seems can be totally made up. Forrest Norrod, Senior Executive with AMD, was quite candid with his words in suggesting that Intel might have just got caught with its pants down. Of course, Intel's bungling in Taiwan has done nothing to shore up its position of continued dominance either.


    Now, though, AMD may have a shot at coming out with a faster, more powerful chip than Intel for the first time. Intel in April said it was delaying the release of a more advanced chip manufacturing process until sometime in 2019. AMD has its own new, advanced chip, which it will now be able to release earlier than Intel, potentially giving it an edge in the market for high-performance chips for PCs and data center computers.

    Aaron Tilley, the author of this article even exposes some of the ugliness going on behind the scenes, from I don't know when, but I did find it odd that AMD's Norrod had some jabs about Raja Koduri and him working out at Intel. And I thought that was our job. He also suggests that Intel will not be in on the GPU game for another 3 years, which is something we fully agree with.

    Mr. Norrod played down the significance of the hiring. “Raja is a brilliant guy, a brilliant architect, a brilliant marketer, but he lives in the future,” he said. “He’s running a massive organization, and based on my perceptions of Raja and my experience working with him, that doesn’t play to his strengths. We’ll see what happens.”

    He also claimed that AMD’s graphic chip business is doing a little better since Mr. Koduri’s departure. Under Mr. Koduri, AMD changed product plans for new graphic chips several times. “We had some wastage on the GPU roadmap where he changed his mind,” he said. “I think that since we’ve really locked that down, we’re making a little bit more rapid progress.”
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
  2. Lazorz_Go_PewPew

    Lazorz_Go_PewPew Gawd

    Messages:
    561
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    Thanks for the heads up!
    I hope AMD takes full advantage of the opportunity Intel has given them.
    More competition == more better
     
  3. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,440
    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2007
    I think any stumble when your the top dog opens doors. Especially when the top dog gets complacent......intel has had it coming for quite a few years now. This could be big.....
     
  4. U-238

    U-238 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    222
    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2008
    Between Spectre, the 10mm thing and the issues in Taiwan, I'd say the door is wiiiiide open.

    The days of Intel's ez money ez life in the processor market are over.
     
  5. Henle

    Henle n00bie

    Messages:
    7
    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2018
    "a faster, more powerful chip than Intel for the first time."
    First time in a long time maybe, but not the first time. Athlon K7 was faster than the PIII when it was released and Athlon X64 smoked anything Intel had to offer until Core 2 came out.
     
  6. TMCM

    TMCM [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,274
    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2003
    Yeah wasn't the Athlon the first (mass market X86 cpu) to break the Ghz barrier?
     
  7. Rvenger

    Rvenger [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,421
    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2012
    Ghz doesn't mean faster
     
    auntjemima likes this.
  8. Henle

    Henle n00bie

    Messages:
    7
    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2018
    Ghz isn't what made the K7 faster than the PIII or the X64 faster than P4. They were just better architectures.
     
  9. Kyle_Bennett

    Kyle_Bennett El Chingón Staff Member

    Messages:
    53,969
    Joined:
    May 18, 1997
    Please let's insert arguing about stupid shit from the past into this conversation about the future. Oh, I see you already did that. You should get your achievement badge this week.

    If you care to discuss history of processors, please go do that in one of the hundreds of other threads that discuss that or make your own.

    On topic please.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
  10. travm

    travm Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    194
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2016
    While I own a couple ryzen chips, I'm really waiting to see how amd can bulldozer this momentum.
     
  11. Pieter3dnow

    Pieter3dnow [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,768
    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2009
    Underestimating Intel is the worst that AMD did before. That did not end well. If Raja was the only problem at RTG then why was there several changes in personnel?

    Lets say something silly in 3 years Intel comes out with a GPU product that matters then the hollow words from Norrod mean nothing. As much as he blames Raja from having his head in the clouds you could say that Norrod has his head up his ass, because when Intel has a product guess how many OEM will choose between AMD,Intel and Nvidia. If you find this pretty bold, check which OEM signed the GPP agreement ...

    Short sighted or narrow minded AMD management need to make sure that if Intel is coming back they better still have a 3 year lead. If not then fighting Nvidia and Intel on 3 fronts is not going to end well.
     
  12. Aardvarck

    Aardvarck Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    225
    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2004
    I still don't think AMD will "unseat" Intel as king of the hill, and I'm a yuge investor in AMD (skin in the game baby). I do however see the massive potential for them to steal market share, and that's really all that matters. Hell, if Intel is unseated as King, even better, but I just want to see them deliver on their product line and nail their turn around. I'm a yuge fan of Dr. Su and everything she's done for the company.

    I would stop worrying about who is better than who and get some equity in these bad boys (Nvidia and Micron as well). The competition is only going to benefit your bottom line, and semi-conductors and GPUs are going to power the next generation of cloud computing, video game streaming, machine learning, self-driving automobiles, and crypto-currency mining.

    Get some skin in the game, people. Fanboyism isn't lucrative.

    It's not for everyone, and it's been one hell of a ride (AMD stock has been manipulated so many times over the past two years) but those of us who have stayed long AMD (and long semi's & GPUs) are finally earning profits on their investments. Hell, if you've been long Nvidia since 2015, you probably don't need to work for a living any more.

    It's a good day to be in the market.
     
  13. EODetroit

    EODetroit [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,374
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2004
    Still AMD's fault we're in this situation, for bungling chip after chip after chip, letting Intel go nearly a decade of barely increasing clockspeed and IPC. Today's 4C/8T CPU is not significantly faster than the 4C/8T of Sandy Bridge. AMD is only now catching up. The only thing Intel bungled was misjudging that AMD would suddenly find competence.
     
  14. R_Type

    R_Type [H]Lite

    Messages:
    97
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2018
    I think the whole vega launch was handled so badly in all regards, maybe the engineering decisions in it were a bit before rajas time but the thing was his first big product outing, it went real bad and by all accounts he's a bit of a dick. That's enough to get you booted in plenty of places.
     
  15. maxius

    maxius 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,229
    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2001
    IF ONLY INTEL PLAYED FAIRLY IN THE k8 & P4 ERA... THE CRUX OF WHAT INTEL DID WAS DENY AMD ACCESS TO THE MARKETS THAT WOULD OF MADE IT THE MOST MONEY. NOT SAYING THAT WAS AMD'S ONLY ISSUE BUT IT SET THEM ON THE PATH.

    INTEL DENYING OEM/ODM MARKET SHARE VIA KICKBACKS = LESS MARKET SHARE = LESS R&D SPENDING = DOING LESS WITH MORE AND THAT IS WHAT BIT AMD THE MOST ALONG WITH MANAGEMENT MISSTEPS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE SITUATION.
     
    dgz, the901, Darth Kyrie and 2 others like this.
  16. R_Type

    R_Type [H]Lite

    Messages:
    97
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2018
    There was only one blunder chip really, then they were saddled with it in various forms for 5 years
     
    Revdarian likes this.
  17. SLee

    SLee Gawd

    Messages:
    935
    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2002
    The Free Market includes competitors like Intel, which can do legitimate actions like lowering price to affect market share.
     
  18. maxius

    maxius 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,229
    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2001
    Like they did in the k8 & p4 era...
     
  19. Ranulfo

    Ranulfo [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,107
    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2006
    I will never get this sentiment. You ignore the obvious and blame the victim of unfair competition, namely cash incentives to sell only intel. Yes, AMD fumbled but you act as if Intel had every right to do what it did, to not innovate on their own and offer their customers better value.
     
  20. travm

    travm Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    194
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2016
    Since when was intel a free market competitor... Keep your eyes on the back rooms gents. This may get interesting.
     
    Meeho and Darth Kyrie like this.
  21. oldmanbal

    oldmanbal [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,686
    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    The fact that Intel is lagging behind now with competent solutions in both the HEDT and SERVER markets is almost unfathomable. I don't see them competing on a price/performance standpoint anytime in the next year. How many people are lining up to spend THREE THOUSAND dollars on a 28 core intel desktop chip? If AMD can deliver Threadripper refresh in the same monetary range as their initial offering, Intel is going to be in an extremely precarious situation.
     
  22. Master_shake_

    Master_shake_ Little Bitch

    Messages:
    7,508
    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    i think the real question here is how many pluses can intel add to the end of 14nm++
     
    Revdarian, otg, R_Type and 2 others like this.
  23. Atearen

    Atearen n00bie

    Messages:
    38
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2018
    As a business student I feel confident to say that there has never been and there won't be a free market ever.

    Intel have power and if they say they won't let AMD take more than 15%, you can be sure they are willing to do some pretty shady stuff to hold them, the fines from the FTC and EU are jokes anyway.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
  24. travm

    travm Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    194
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2016
    The irony here, besides the ++ thing being an AMD ploy, is that intel has had 5ghz capable chips since sandy bridge. While they have "kept up" their newer stuff doesnt clock as well, so it all ends up a wash. I wonder what would happen if you put sandy bridge on a current DDR4 memory controller, and just let it rain 5GHZ+ (i just clicked on a little thing that popped up saying 5ghz+). The quest for clocks has historically failed (p4, BD), but i recall some pretty high clocked P4's that did well for themselves, heat and power aside, and cost, they were stupid expensive iirc.

    Seriously this is AMD's change to un-bulldozer this shit. Realistically, i think AMD knows their 7nm is good shit, and its working, nothing can wreck this. So the next 16 months are AMD. Intel 10nm may realistically beat the living shit out of AMD 7nm, and then? Carbon nanotubes? Hardware as we knew it for the last 20 years is going to change soon.
     
  25. travm

    travm Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    194
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2016
    AMD isn't really fighting. Just building chips. As long as sales outpace costs they aren't going anywhere.
     
  26. ChadD

    ChadD I Love TEXAS

    Messages:
    3,157
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    Intel was not worried about AMD not because they had a crap product.

    Was AMDs product up to par since the Athlon hay day... no. Still not the issue.

    The folks running Intel believe they are in a position to slap down all comers forever.

    Intels history has lead them to believe that.

    Even before all the crap with AMD they tried to shut Cyrix down... failed. However after their engineers pulled those clean roomed Cyrix chips apart they realized they had fixed a bunch of Intel mistakes in regards to register naming, and vastly improved x86 power management. So they stole it for the Pentium Pro design... and got sued. Sure they had to give Cyrix an official licence to end that (and I guess that is how China is now making x86). Still the law suits and other back room crap kept a lot of OEMs away from Cryix. If they had gotten more sales during those Intel law suit years their later chips could easy have been on the market 2-3 years earlier and we would now have a 3 way race.

    When AMD launched Athlon... Intel crushed them. It didn't matter that AMDs product was basically 2 generations better. Intel using illegal contracts and back room deals crushed them... the fines they got hit with well later where well worth paying and a complete joke. (and I would say now Intel would have zero worries doing the same shit again if need be.... no Judge is going to break up a company the US Gov views as a national security asset)

    So why would Intel push performance, there is no need. They honestly believe even if AMD releases better product they can just out hustle them... skirting the law. Heck breaking it even if need be... the fines are no real deterrent.

    As far as x86 goes... and as great as x86 Ryzen and Epyc are it makes no difference. Frankly AMD will never really push themselves into a potential 50/50 marketshare or anything even close to it situation. Intel will pull out all the tricks and are more then willing to copy steal cheat and break laws if need be.

    Long term the only way AMD really puts the hurt on Intel... is if the ARM infrastructure continues to grow. Its no secret AMD has K12 (ARM Ryzen) designs sitting waiting to be fabbed at some point. Hopefully AMD continues updating those designs with their Ryzen core updates and refreshes. If the ARM server chip companies the Qcomms Samsungs and Apples push into the laptop market... its very possible that in a couple years AMD would be more then ready to drop Epyc ARM chips, I believe that is AMDs best road to beating Intel in the server market.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
  27. KazeoHin

    KazeoHin [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,499
    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2011
    AMD Can't get cocky now. They need to pour a TON of resources into RnD and get their products to a level where they can't be ignored. They can't settle for being 2nd best at ANYTHING, because 2nd best in a two-horse race is also known as 'worst'.
     
    Pieter3dnow likes this.
  28. NKD

    NKD [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,777
    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2007
    Man intel CEO is straight up saying they expect to lose market share server side, 15-20% that will be a giant win for AMD if that happens. As long as AMD doesn't take it for granted they seem like they are on role right now. I think intel is back to drawing boards right now. I mean bulldozer was mess now AMD went with the same set up just with faster IPC and boom they can put together many more cores than intel. 7nm is only going to get better. I think the module design is finally paying off and all they needed was IPC and better interconnect. Amazing what you can do with tiny ass budget compared to intel if you set your mind to it and just execute. Lisa is gonna be paid well and I don't think AMD share holders are letting her go anywhere lol.
     
  29. NKD

    NKD [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,777
    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2007
    in time. They are on right track and looks like they have the CEO in Lisa. Lady is an executioner! 7nm EPYC already in labs. She is for real!
     
    Geoffrey Rene Moiens likes this.
  30. Ultima99

    Ultima99 [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,766
    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2004
    This is the perfect combination of laziness and corporate greed.

    They were way ahead for years and got complacent, allowing them to feel like they didn't need to dump tons of money into 10nm R&D thus making shareholders happy these past years.

    Too bad they had a lack of vision and now Darth Shareholder, who is already upset about product delays, will be really pissed about losing sales / market share.
    nmp-1-gif.gif

    If they had invested more up front then 10nm would probably be fine now, but instead they're going to let AMD eat their lunch, again, and deservedly so.

    I guess it's been too long since they've learned their last lesson.


    Funny enough, in this analogy the overconfident Emperor would be Intel and Luke would be AMD, but the lack of vision worked too well here.
     
  31. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,475
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Now I'm under the impression that Raja is one of those fast talking bullshitters that combine just enough knowledge to confuse management for a while.
    I've worked with those, it sucks.
    If he is, look for Intel GPU sucking again and again.
     
    jnemesh likes this.
  32. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,475
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Intel falling behind in process...or even being so close to each other, is unacceptable and a freaking mayor market shift in my eyes... To me is a holy shit moment.. i know noise is being made about, but doesn't feel like nearly enough. As far as cpu design and all that, I think they will figure it out its a matter of how long, plus they can always copy a bit here and there probably (?) ... They are still in a position they should never have been.. but hey if they can sell 6000$ xeon based on 10y old tech, why not right? Right?..
     
  33. funkydmunky

    funkydmunky [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,994
    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2008
    I don't think "bungling" is the correct word to use. In a situation where your main competitor financially dominates you to such an incredible degree. Not only in R&D, but in established business contracts and marketing.
    I think you should give your head a shake and understand it is a near miracle that AMD is still in the game. Oh, and on top of this they are fighting a two front war. Yet they are still in both.
     
  34. ChadD

    ChadD I Love TEXAS

    Messages:
    3,157
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    Two fronts where the competition are both willing to play dirty.
     
    Revdarian and Darth Kyrie like this.
  35. IcePickFreak

    IcePickFreak [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,042
    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2010
    Should be interesting to see how it plays out. The stars may be aligning for AMD being that they're getting competitive right when Intel appears to be stumbling.

    Yeah, AMD has been lagging behind the last decade and a half simply because the previous CEOs forgot to tell the engineers to whip up better chips. Thank god they passed the major hurdle of sending out an email to the engineers.
     
    Darth Kyrie likes this.
  36. mashie

    mashie Mawd Gawd

    Messages:
    4,160
    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2000
    I would love to see Intel and AMD have 50% of the x86 market each. Would be the best possible outcome for the consumers.
     
    Darth Kyrie likes this.
  37. DeathFromBelow

    DeathFromBelow [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,076
    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2005
    Intel's IPC gains came at the expense of breaking security, that's why we have all the Intel-specific Spectre/Meltdown BIOS updates with huge performance hits. With that in mind AMDs Bulldozer lineage was actually the superior set of chips, especially for anything heavily threaded.

    AMD isn't perfect but you can't blame them for Intel's anti-competitive behavior.
     
    Darth Kyrie and Ranulfo like this.
  38. ChadD

    ChadD I Love TEXAS

    Messages:
    3,157
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    The dude she replaced had a bachelor's degree in Information Systems... he did a fine job diversifying AMD, but he wouldn't know if the chip guys where doing anything groundbreaking or just blowing smoke and collecting a pay stub.

    Lisa Su has a PhD from MIT in electrical engineering. There are very few people in the industry (at any company) on her level. She is a legit world class top of her field chip designer.

    Her MIT Thesis from 1991.... if you understand even the first few pages of that you can see she was well ahead of her time in her thinking as a student. I bet she has forgotten more about chip design then anyone working at Intel these days... including the traitors. :)
    https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/11618

    EDIT:
    Some pre AMD Lisa Su;

    In 1998 IBM moved to cooper interconnects.. and yes Lisa was the project manager that made it happen (all current chips are fabbed using Cooper pre Su it was Al... Intel is moving to cobalt I believe for their 10nm parts perhaps they should have hired Su lol);
    https://www.electronicsweekly.com/n...nection-on-soi-semiconductor-process-1999-04/
    "For the past couple of years our process technology has been very showy,” said Dr Lisa Su, project manager for CMOS Logic Technologies at IBM Microelectronics, pointing out that the 0.11?m features are drawn using a 248nm UV wavelength.

    In 2001 IBM Toshiba and Sony partnered on a little chip called cell;
    https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1143130
    Lisa Su, director of emerging products at IBM Microeletronics, said, "We started with a clean sheet of paper and sat down and tried to imagine what sort of processor we'd need five years from now."
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
    otg, jnemesh, Unter Dog and 1 other person like this.
  39. deton8

    deton8 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    319
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2007
    Devil's advocate: Who's to say Intel intends to accomplish this by nefarious means? They may just mean that they'll step up marketing, promotion, vendor outreach etc. in order to reach this goal.

    I agree though, it's seems difficult to hold your competitor to an exact percentage of a market where customers are totally free to choose which product they purchase.