NVIDIA Claims That GPU Prices Will Continue Increasing through Q3 2018

Tyns said:
but our financial system is set up to devalue our currency to devalue debt and encourage spending.
Click to expand...
Nah that is horseshit. The govt. (through the FED and its FOMC's) is also supposed to be increasing wages over time to compensate for inflation.

That the govt. has broadly pursued anti-inflation policies (which largely benefit the rich) since the 1980's at the expense of allowing wages to stagnate while inflation increases (thus making everyone who works for a living poorer) is due to intense lobbying actions by banks/the rich/Wall St. over time. If you look at prior decades of high inflation where wages went up in line with the inflation the economy functioned just fine, debt didn't sky rocket, and the world didn't end either.

Tyns said:
Oh god, laughing too hard. No, no he didn't.
Click to expand...
You don't get to laugh at anybody given how wrong you've been about pretty much everything in thread + your failure to own up to your dishonest goal post shifting ways. I could've failed to graduate from Montessori school and I'd have more credibility on these subjects than you given your posting at this point in thread.
 
mesyn191 said:
Nah that is horseshit. The govt. (through the FED and its FOMC's) is also supposed to be increasing wages over time to compensate for inflation.

That the govt. has broadly pursued anti-inflation policies (which largely benefit the rich) since the 1980's at the expense of allowing wages to stagnate while inflation increases (thus making everyone who works for a living poorer) is due to intense lobbying actions by banks/the rich/Wall St. over time. If you look at prior decades of high inflation where wages went up in line with the inflation the economy functioned just fine, debt didn't sky rocket, and the world didn't end either.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying you're wrong, I honestly don't understand the connection. How does anti-inflationary policy make everyone poorer? If I'm being paid a fixed wage and it's stagnating over time, wouldn't inflation hurt me more, by reducing my purchasing power?
 
tetris42 said:
I'm saying the two aren't necessarily exclusive. I honestly don't know for the current memory shortage. It could be a combination of both, where there is collective price raising due to perceived shortage, but there is ALSO a shortage that goes beyond what the company was originally trying to induce artificially. It could be completely benign, who knows. The point is price fixing of memory HAS happened before from major vendors being in on the collusion, so that shouldn't be forgotten. And my reply was to someone saying price fixing was impossible without government interference, a claim I find kind of ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Frankly, price fixing at this juncture would be counterproductive - as we can see, customers are getting irritated to angry. DRAM margins are at all time highs, the companies would be stupid to press their luck and the far reaching implications will invite scrutiny as is now the case with China and Samsung. There has been a paradigm shift in computing from CPU-centric to memory-centric. Interestingly, 3DXP may be the hero by replacing DRAM where it can, lowering demand and thus prices.

mesyn191 said:
Nah that is horseshit. The govt. (through the FED and its FOMC's) is also supposed to be increasing wages over time to compensate for inflation.

That the govt. has broadly pursued anti-inflation policies (which largely benefit the rich) since the 1980's at the expense of allowing wages to stagnate while inflation increases (thus making everyone who works for a living poorer) is due to intense lobbying actions by banks/the rich/Wall St. over time. If you look at prior decades of high inflation where wages went up in line with the inflation the economy functioned just fine, debt didn't sky rocket, and the world didn't end either.


You don't get to laugh at anybody given how wrong you've been about pretty much everything in thread + your failure to own up to your dishonest goal post shifting ways. I could've failed to graduate from Montessori school and I'd have more credibility on these subjects than you given your posting at this point in thread.
Click to expand...
Wages have stagnated because the average worker is more easily replaceable. Technology has increased productivity, not the workers, so why should the workers make more money? Anyone that adds value and is not easily replaceable has achieved fantastic wage growth.

Call me wrong all you like, it doesn’t change the facts: Memory is in short supply, demand is increasing rapidly, it’s too expensive and too risky for the manufacturers to build out a large amount of new capacity (though 20-25% is nothing to sneeze at), node transitions have become much more expensive and more time consuming, and you can’t afford a few hundred dollars more in memory so you blame an evil conspiracy to make yourself feel better.
 
tetris42 said:
I'm saying the two aren't necessarily exclusive. I honestly don't know for the current memory shortage. It could be a combination of both, where there is collective price raising due to perceived shortage, but there is ALSO a shortage that goes beyond what the company was originally trying to induce artificially. It could be completely benign, who knows. The point is price fixing of memory HAS happened before from major vendors being in on the collusion, so that shouldn't be forgotten. And my reply was to someone saying price fixing was impossible without government interference, a claim I find kind of ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Well this is the thing, companies pay financial experts lots of money to find out how to increase profits, this will include sidestepping laws.

Price fixing legislation requires you to not fix prices when supply and demand doesnt dictate otherwise so how do you get round that?

Simple, you artificially limit production, whether thats claiming you cant produce more or other excuses, you can then simply say demand is exceeding supply and it is how it is.
 
tetris42 said:
How does anti-inflationary policy make everyone poorer?
Click to expand...
1980's onwards the FED/govt. sees wage inflation as the primary cause of monetary inflation in the broad economy and so to fight inflation tries to prevent wage increases from occurring. If you're wage earner this is really bad because every year you effectively get a small pay cut which really adds up over time.

tetris42 said:
If I'm being paid a fixed wage and it's stagnating over time, wouldn't inflation hurt me more, by reducing my purchasing power?
Click to expand...
Not if you were getting COLA's (Cost of Living Adjustments) which are meant to counter act the effect of inflation so your real income stays the same over time but these have been effectively portrayed as "raises" and generally not done at all anymore.
 
Tyns said:
Wages have stagnated because the average worker is more easily replaceable.
Click to expand...
That is a effect of outsourcing though which is (technically, won't happen with this Congress) easily reversible, just requires some law changes. Remember the economy ran just fine when outsourcing pretty much wasn't a thing prior to the 80's and wages went up with inflation so don't tell me that its impossible to run a economy like that.

Tyns said:
Technology has increased productivity, not the workers
Click to expand...
This is blatantly false.

On top of that its worth pointing out that during the "recovery" from the Great Recession many businesses never really hired as many as they used to and just had their current employees do more work without a wage increase.

Tyns said:
so why should the workers make more money?
Click to expand...
Even if worker's productivity wasn't increasing with time you'd still HAVE to increase their wages over time to deal with inflation. The alternative to that is what we have now where there are gigantic disparities in wealth and the rich are becoming hyper rich while everyone else is slowly falling into poverty. Basically the US is turning into a shitheap of a 3rd world country.

Tyns said:
Anyone that adds value and is not easily replaceable has achieved fantastic wage growth.
Click to expand...
Nope. Virtually all GDP growth since at least 2009 has gone to the rich. Virtually no one who works for a living (ie. wage earners) has seen wage growth much less "fantastic" wage growth. There are plenty of jobs to go around but they mostly pay shit and are part time with no benefits or permanence to them.

More food for thought here.

Tyns said:
it’s too expensive and too risky for the manufacturers to build out a large amount of new capacity
Click to expand...
The Chinese are already building out the capacity and its starting to come online now though even though it'll take until 2019 for the real effects to be felt. This has been pointed out to you already earlier in thread.
 
mesyn191 said:
1980's onwards the FED/govt. sees wage inflation as the primary cause of monetary inflation in the broad economy and so to fight inflation tries to prevent wage increases from occurring. If you're wage earner this is really bad because every year you effectively get a small pay cut which really adds up over time.


Not if you were getting COLA's (Cost of Living Adjustments) which are meant to counter act the effect of inflation so your real income stays the same over time but these have been effectively portrayed as "raises" and generally not done at all anymore.
Click to expand...
Oh okay, so we were just talking about different terms. It's not fighting overall inflation, so much as wage increases specifically. I was going to say, in the absence of any adjustments and continued stagnation, deflationary practices as a whole seem like they would benefit workers aalso.
 
mesyn191 said:
This is blatantly false.

On top of that its worth pointing out that during the "recovery" from the Great Recession many businesses never really hired as many as they used to and just had their current employees do more work without a wage increase.
Click to expand...
What does your referenced chart have to do with proving my statement is false? Productivity is up, wages are not up as much... my point is the average worker is not responsible for the increase in productivity, the technology is. I do not dispute that productivity is up, only what is responsible.

My personal anecdote as a software developer in an IT centric city was the contract I was working on in early 2010 was cancelled and I was out of work for a few months. All the companies in the area cancelled their IT projects and slashed their IT budgets 2009-2010. Within a year, there was a massive hiring spree and wages/rates went up massively. To this day wages/rates are elevated for competent developers here. My income doubled over the past ten years when I was already making nice money.

mesyn191 said:
Even if worker's productivity wasn't increasing with time you'd still HAVE to increase their wages over time to deal with inflation. The alternative to that is what we have now where there are gigantic disparities in wealth and the rich are becoming hyper rich while everyone else is slowly falling into poverty. Basically the US is turning into a shitheap of a 3rd world country.
Click to expand...
No, no we don't have to increase their wages. Again, wages are based on how easily replaceable a worker is. If you are not easily replaced, then you command higher wages. If you are easily replaced, then you get paid less. If workers want to earn more money for the same work hours, they need to add more value, become more indispensable, not be another cog in the wheel like any other.

The problem ultimately becomes what to do with all the more-or-less useless people. This will become much more of a problem in the next couple of decades as AI takes over more and more jobs. It's not an easy problem to solve; surely we cannot let people starve to death, but no one likes the idea of paying people to do nothing, either. Difficult problem.

mesyn191 said:
Nope. Virtually all GDP growth since at least 2009 has gone to the rich. Virtually no one who works for a living (ie. wage earners) has seen wage growth much less "fantastic" wage growth. There are plenty of jobs to go around but they mostly pay shit and are part time with no benefits or permanence to them.
Click to expand...

What about those that were wage earners, started their own businesses, then became rich? Why is being rich now a bad thing? It's always been my goal and I'm about half way there by my own reckoning. Business owners work, but the goal is to get others to work for you so you make more money for your work. If being a business owner was so easy and requires no skill, value add, or any other unique property, why don't these low wage workers run their own business? Plenty of business owners started out without much money at all. This is America, we build ourselves up and don't depend on others to do it for us. Well, that's the way it used to be, now we have whiners complaining they're not handed success on a platter.

mesyn191 said:
The Chinese are already building out the capacity and its starting to come online now though even though it'll take until 2019 for the real effects to be felt. This has been pointed out to you already earlier in thread.
Click to expand...
And I have pointed out the Chinese memory products will be a travesty compared to modern standards and will have no effect on the worldwide memory market. Extremely cheaply-made, low quality Chinese devices will use the memory. If Apple does agree to buy their memory, it guarantee it will go into China-only low end mobile devices, but I still question whether Apple would commit to purchasing unproven memory from a brand spanking new memory company/fab. The Chinese memory are multiple generations/nodes behind, you'll see.
 
Tyns said:
And I have pointed out the Chinese memory products will be a travesty compared to modern standards and will have no effect on the worldwide memory market. Extremely cheaply-made, low quality Chinese devices will use the memory. If Apple does agree to buy their memory, it guarantee it will go into China-only low end mobile devices, but I still question whether Apple would commit to purchasing unproven memory from a brand spanking new memory company/fab. The Chinese memory are multiple generations/nodes behind, you'll see.
Click to expand...

Even if it is of the lowest quality, it will still affect the global market. An increase in supply in China is an increase in supply, after all.
 
I doubt there is much risk in creating more production facilities. They are just fat and happy with what the current situation brings.
 
Tyns said:
What does your referenced chart have to do with proving my statement is false?
Click to expand...
You said worker productivity hadn't increased and yet it clearly has while wages didn't go up in line with that increase. The chart is simple to understand. And information showing that tech. isn't really responsible for most of the productivity gains we've seen is easy to find.

Tyns said:
My personal anecdote
Click to expand...
I don't care about your personal just-so anecdotes. Especially when national data shows that for nearly everyone else things were different. The economic effect of the lives of tens of millions far out weigh the live of one.

Tyns said:
No, no we don't have to increase their wages.
Click to expand...
Yes you do otherwise inflation makes them all poor over time and/or wealth gets concentrated among the super rich. This isn't something that is even debatable at this point. Its just a matter of fact.

Tyns said:
Again, wages are based on how easily replaceable a worker is.
Click to expand...
When virtually everybody is "easily replaceable" then this becomes a meaningless platitude. You also have to factor in that we're supposed to be living in a economy that is at least somewhat of a meritocracy that rewards effort with better pay too BTW.

Tyns said:
What about those that were wage earners, started their own businesses, then became rich?
Click to expand...
A minority of statistical outliers isn't worth talking about when the vast majority of people are either falling into poverty or seeing their standard of living drastically reduced. The vast majority of businesses fail even in the best of times and they've not only been failing more frequently than ever fewer small businesses are being set up than ever BTW. Its been that way since at least 2010.

Tyns said:
Why is being rich now a bad thing?
Click to expand...
Because getting rich, or richer, by making everyone else poorer is a obviously bad thing. Very few rich people truly are self made or really do all that much to add value. These days many of them are little more than classical rentiers.

Tyns said:
This is America, we build ourselves up and don't depend on others to do it for us.
Click to expand...
Rugged Individualism and "bootstraps" are bullshit and always have been FYI.

Tyns said:
And I have pointed out the Chinese memory products will be a travesty compared to modern standards....The Chinese memory are multiple generations/nodes behind, you'll see.
Click to expand...
You saying it doesn't make it so. You might as well go and claim you're the King of France while you're at it.

And DDR4 2133 CL15 isn't a travesty at all and you know it. That is a common modern spec memory so for you to claim they're generations behind right now is to deny reality.

Tyns said:
It will be junk.
Click to expand...
Citation needed to support your claim that DDR4 2133 CL15 is junk.
 
I don't understand all this talk of "inventory". Manufacturers don't maintain large inventories of parts, nor large inventories of finished product.

They strive for the ideal case where parts arrive no sooner than the day they're consumed by manufacturing, and finished product comes off the line the day that it's needed to fill an order.

Any inventory above those levels is a cost. Money sunk into inventory is money that be neither spent nor invested.

And it's even worse with tech products. The next generation of products (and parts) will obsolete existing stock (or diminish its value).

Summary: You don't want inventory. The ideal state is zero inventory. You try hard to come as close as possible to zero inventory.
 
Burticus said:
Guess I'll be milking my GTX 1070 until 2025
Click to expand...
Mine is a one year old desktop with a GTX 1060. I'll have it as long as I own use this desktop ... probably five or six years. In the interim I have no reason to care about the prices of a PC, or of a graphics card.

I'm just not in the market. It's all a don't care for me.

And, given that PCs have multi-year life spans, I suspect it's a don't care for most people.
 
SecretStash said:
I doubt there is much risk in creating more production facilities. They are just fat and happy with what the current situation brings.
Click to expand...
There is tremendous risk. First, it’s extrmely expensive and time consuming, 2 years to start mass producing, 3 years to reach max capacity at least. Second, oversupply crushes prices, so that massive new investment they just made takes a decade to reclaim, maybe longer depending on how bad the surplus is. If they overbuild and that coincides with an unforeseen drop in demand, they may actually be producing product at a loss for many years. Read up on the last “cycle”. Now that there are only 3 DRAM mfg’s producing 96% of the global supply (because of prices getting crushed and making mfgs unprofitable for long periods of time, causing them to sell the,selves for pennies on th dollar), they are intent on not producing an oversupply situation. Now, that just happens to coincide with the opposite demand scenario, where demand is increasing rapidly from many areas that are new or simply not that significant in the past. So yes, now they are making a ton of money.

IdiotInCharge said:
And?
Click to expand...
Would new production for 980ti’s hurt the demand/pricing for 1080ti’s?

mesyn191 said:
You said worker productivity hadn't increased and yet it clearly has while wages didn't go up in line with that increase. The chart is simple to understand. And information showing that tech. isn't really responsible for most of the productivity gains we've seen is easy to find.


I don't care about your personal just-so anecdotes. Especially when national data shows that for nearly everyone else things were different. The economic effect of the lives of tens of millions far out weigh the live of one.


Yes you do otherwise inflation makes them all poor over time and/or wealth gets concentrated among the super rich. This isn't something that is even debatable at this point. Its just a matter of fact.


When virtually everybody is "easily replaceable" then this becomes a meaningless platitude. You also have to factor in that we're supposed to be living in a economy that is at least somewhat of a meritocracy that rewards effort with better pay too BTW.


A minority of statistical outliers isn't worth talking about when the vast majority of people are either falling into poverty or seeing their standard of living drastically reduced. The vast majority of businesses fail even in the best of times and they've not only been failing more frequently than ever fewer small businesses are being set up than ever BTW. Its been that way since at least 2010.


Because getting rich, or richer, by making everyone else poorer is a obviously bad thing. Very few rich people truly are self made or really do all that much to add value. These days many of them are little more than classical rentiers.


Rugged Individualism and "bootstraps" are bullshit and always have been FYI.


You saying it doesn't make it so. You might as well go and claim you're the King of France while you're at it.

And DDR4 2133 CL15 isn't a travesty at all and you know it. That is a common modern spec memory so for you to claim they're generations behind right now is to deny reality.


Citation needed to support your claim that DDR4 2133 CL15 is junk.
Click to expand...
I don’t mean to call you names, but you are anti-capitalist and I find you as offensive as I’m sure you find me. You are whiny and think people deserve money and success for “effort”. In the real world, you are rewarded for results - results define merit, not effort. You don’t like my anecdote or what you classify as statistical outliers because they are damaging to your cause - people can be successful without government intervention. The entire world depends on the US for leadership in all areas of industry yet you claim our system is broken. Social welfare is broken, it hasn’t worked for decades and has only made inner cities worse. You don’t deserve a smart phone, internet access, TV, or any form of entertainment (least of all a modern gaming PC); one must earn these things.

If a worker pushes a button all day and produces X products as a result then one day a technological breakthrough allows him to produce 2X prudcts with the same button pushing. You really think he deserves a raise? It’s the opposite x half the workforce can be let go to keep the same level of production, now there’s twice the supply of workers competing for the jobs, so what happens? Wages go down. Take an Econ class or read a book, I recommend Thomas Sowell.

Ok, you know best about Chinese memory. It will cut memory prices in half (y)




I’m done on this topic, if you don’t believe me by now, you never will. There’s no price fixing and no artificial supply constraint (20-25% capacity increase this year that will require $50B in capex I think).

If you want more RAM or want to build a new system, might as well do it now, Memory is not going to get cheaper anytime soon (though SSDs should start to drop in price reasonably, especially when 96L QLC hits the street).

GPUs are going to get more expensive as memory has become the limiting factor in production, so demand will outstrip supply and prices will increase or nVidia and AMD will have to start paying a premium for more GDDR and the cost will be passed onto the customers. Creating cards optimized for gaming vs cards optimized for mining could help but I think that will still be hindered by DRAM allocation.
 
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/2...pus-probably-wont-be-at-gdc-or-gtc-report.htm

If AMD isn't in a hurry to release their new generation, there is no incentive for nVidia to release theirs since their current generation is selling out at normal prices. This may lead to something awful for consumers - a new tier of pricing for the new generation and longer cycle times, 2080's for $1200-1500? That works if the 1080ti's still sell at high volumes for close to MSRP.
 
odditory said:
But thats only the high end fringe of GPUs. Most gamers aren't on 1080Ti's if you look at Steam stats. Median GPU is far, far lower.

But to play devil's advocate, if PC gaming with a luxury class GPU was so important, why not already have one? Prices have only been higher since last month. 1080Ti came out early last year, and 1070/1080 came out mid 2016.

I get the sense that for some people complaining about the shortage and 20% higher pricing, it's a case of suddenly wanting it more simply because of it's new scarcity. Human nature, FTL.
Click to expand...

Replying to an older post, but the 1070/1080 came out in mid 2016. People building a PC now are using the current generation of GPU - the 1070/1080. It's not because of scarcity. It's because it's what's available. If there were a newer model out, it'd be that one, even if it wasn't scarce. Put a 2080 out there with enough stock, and it'd be the new hotness and the new 'hot' item.
 
Tyns said:
If AMD isn't in a hurry to release their new generation, there is no incentive for nVidia to release theirs since their current generation is selling out at normal prices. This may lead to something awful for consumers - a new tier of pricing for the new generation and longer cycle times, 2080's for $1200-1500? That works if the 1080ti's still sell at high volumes for close to MSRP.
Click to expand...

Or, it’ll lead to abandonment by many of the PC gaming space for now. A PS4 can push games similar to my 1060 3GB, and its games are way cheaper atm. I’ve bought 6 PS4 games on sale and used for $40 in the past four months since purchasing my PS4. I’ve had exactly zero desire to go back to my pc for gaming, as I keep being unable to buy another 8gb ram stick that would make a difference. After months of waiting, I just don’t care anymore. I’ll check back in a few months, meanwhile, console gaming it is.

Nvidia really doesn’t want to lose people like me who have been pc gamers for the past 25 years and are now finally fed up with this pricing situation. Once crypto inevitably moves to specialized hardware, NV is going to need their expected user base to buy gpus, and if we’re gone... that’s going to spell trouble for them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ncjoe
like this
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top