Hi all. Looking at the disaster of the 3080 launch that a massive amount of the cards were bought by bots/scalpers it tells us of the situation we could be towards getting a 3080/3090/3070 for the next few weeks as stock stabilizes. I do have a question to pose to all of you as to the forecast for the next few weeks but before I pose it I'd like to present a few degrees of nuance to think about concerning the question. First thing to address is the bots and the scalpers that used them. The bots were as effective as they were Thursday morning because nVIDIA gave our chance away. How? Easy. They gave everyone a day and time for the launch. Bots like the one from BounceAlerts for example need to be programmed/scripted ahead of time to work at their highest level of effectiveness. nVIDIA announced dates on September 1st. That gave every scalper who wanted to resell the card and every bot user who wanted a card for actual use 16 days to prime their bot for action. Take that into account and compare it to what Sony did on the PS5. They announced a preorder opening date and then let the online retailers launch preorders the night before. These bots were primed for the 17th on PS5 and the 16th. It threw off their timing and many people who weren't bots got the PS5.
Second thing to address concerning nuance to look at: big launches for next week and beyond. Not just the GeForce RTX 3090 Thursday but the XBox Series X & S 2 days before as that has preorders for those opening then. Plus eVGA launches their FTW3 3080s and ASUS launches their ROG Strix 3080. Then in October the 3070 and November? AMD's Xen 3 and Big Navi. This gives bot users/scalpers 2 something else's to pay attention for next week plus more 3080 stock with new models added to the restock. Anything to take their attention and money off of the 3080 helps us. While we saw on Thursday people spend up to $29,000 (the 42 sold to 1 dude from nVIDIA Store) on 3080's on Thursday these bot users/scalpers? They don't have unlimited disposable income to spend on tech product. At one point (especially if the scalpers who already got cards want more) they will run out of money if/when their ebay auctions go dry.
Third piece of nuance to address: the bot users/scalpers who didn't get 3080's on Thursday because inventory just ran out for them. That could be the thing that keeps this 3080 scalper spree going for a little while. People who didn't get into the action on Thursday who are still hungry to join in on the reindeer games (so to speak). It'll be interesting to see the impact they make going forward.
Last piece of nuance to address before I ask my question: Retailers and eTailers and whether or not they'll let restock dates and times go public either by their own admission or an employee tells somebody in alleged confidence where then that somebody will then leak it on social media. We already saw in another forum post (I think it was on page 13 or 14 of the post in question) where Jacob F at eVGA told a Twitter user more 3080's were coming but...didn't give an exact date and time. He just said, "Sometime next week". That was wise of him to do that. It throws bot users/scalpers off because if they know no date or time it means that when the stock comes back up as Add to Cart they got to program their bots on the fly which in turn gives the rest of us a window and with eShoppers like us here? We don't need long to complete an online order for a 3080.
Now the question: based on the nuance I provided (and possibly more you will come up with on your own) how much longer do you think we'll have to deal with bot users/scalpers devouring all the stock of the 3080? What does the forecast feel like to you? Write back with your thoughts and until next time I am out!
Second thing to address concerning nuance to look at: big launches for next week and beyond. Not just the GeForce RTX 3090 Thursday but the XBox Series X & S 2 days before as that has preorders for those opening then. Plus eVGA launches their FTW3 3080s and ASUS launches their ROG Strix 3080. Then in October the 3070 and November? AMD's Xen 3 and Big Navi. This gives bot users/scalpers 2 something else's to pay attention for next week plus more 3080 stock with new models added to the restock. Anything to take their attention and money off of the 3080 helps us. While we saw on Thursday people spend up to $29,000 (the 42 sold to 1 dude from nVIDIA Store) on 3080's on Thursday these bot users/scalpers? They don't have unlimited disposable income to spend on tech product. At one point (especially if the scalpers who already got cards want more) they will run out of money if/when their ebay auctions go dry.
Third piece of nuance to address: the bot users/scalpers who didn't get 3080's on Thursday because inventory just ran out for them. That could be the thing that keeps this 3080 scalper spree going for a little while. People who didn't get into the action on Thursday who are still hungry to join in on the reindeer games (so to speak). It'll be interesting to see the impact they make going forward.
Last piece of nuance to address before I ask my question: Retailers and eTailers and whether or not they'll let restock dates and times go public either by their own admission or an employee tells somebody in alleged confidence where then that somebody will then leak it on social media. We already saw in another forum post (I think it was on page 13 or 14 of the post in question) where Jacob F at eVGA told a Twitter user more 3080's were coming but...didn't give an exact date and time. He just said, "Sometime next week". That was wise of him to do that. It throws bot users/scalpers off because if they know no date or time it means that when the stock comes back up as Add to Cart they got to program their bots on the fly which in turn gives the rest of us a window and with eShoppers like us here? We don't need long to complete an online order for a 3080.
Now the question: based on the nuance I provided (and possibly more you will come up with on your own) how much longer do you think we'll have to deal with bot users/scalpers devouring all the stock of the 3080? What does the forecast feel like to you? Write back with your thoughts and until next time I am out!
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