I've just been pondering this since yesterday concerning the aftermath of the 3080 launch. A good question to ask really...

RareAir23

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Hi all. Looking at the disaster of the 3080 launch that a massive amount of the cards were bought by bots/scalpers it tells us of the situation we could be towards getting a 3080/3090/3070 for the next few weeks as stock stabilizes. I do have a question to pose to all of you as to the forecast for the next few weeks but before I pose it I'd like to present a few degrees of nuance to think about concerning the question. First thing to address is the bots and the scalpers that used them. The bots were as effective as they were Thursday morning because nVIDIA gave our chance away. How? Easy. They gave everyone a day and time for the launch. Bots like the one from BounceAlerts for example need to be programmed/scripted ahead of time to work at their highest level of effectiveness. nVIDIA announced dates on September 1st. That gave every scalper who wanted to resell the card and every bot user who wanted a card for actual use 16 days to prime their bot for action. Take that into account and compare it to what Sony did on the PS5. They announced a preorder opening date and then let the online retailers launch preorders the night before. These bots were primed for the 17th on PS5 and the 16th. It threw off their timing and many people who weren't bots got the PS5.

Second thing to address concerning nuance to look at: big launches for next week and beyond. Not just the GeForce RTX 3090 Thursday but the XBox Series X & S 2 days before as that has preorders for those opening then. Plus eVGA launches their FTW3 3080s and ASUS launches their ROG Strix 3080. Then in October the 3070 and November? AMD's Xen 3 and Big Navi. This gives bot users/scalpers 2 something else's to pay attention for next week plus more 3080 stock with new models added to the restock. Anything to take their attention and money off of the 3080 helps us. While we saw on Thursday people spend up to $29,000 (the 42 sold to 1 dude from nVIDIA Store) on 3080's on Thursday these bot users/scalpers? They don't have unlimited disposable income to spend on tech product. At one point (especially if the scalpers who already got cards want more) they will run out of money if/when their ebay auctions go dry.

Third piece of nuance to address: the bot users/scalpers who didn't get 3080's on Thursday because inventory just ran out for them. That could be the thing that keeps this 3080 scalper spree going for a little while. People who didn't get into the action on Thursday who are still hungry to join in on the reindeer games (so to speak). It'll be interesting to see the impact they make going forward.

Last piece of nuance to address before I ask my question: Retailers and eTailers and whether or not they'll let restock dates and times go public either by their own admission or an employee tells somebody in alleged confidence where then that somebody will then leak it on social media. We already saw in another forum post (I think it was on page 13 or 14 of the post in question) where Jacob F at eVGA told a Twitter user more 3080's were coming but...didn't give an exact date and time. He just said, "Sometime next week". That was wise of him to do that. It throws bot users/scalpers off because if they know no date or time it means that when the stock comes back up as Add to Cart they got to program their bots on the fly which in turn gives the rest of us a window and with eShoppers like us here? We don't need long to complete an online order for a 3080.

Now the question: based on the nuance I provided (and possibly more you will come up with on your own) how much longer do you think we'll have to deal with bot users/scalpers devouring all the stock of the 3080? What does the forecast feel like to you? Write back with your thoughts and until next time I am out!
 
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jmilcher

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This has kind of been covered a few times here and at other outlets. Basically expect real stock and AIB card with double capacity memory to hit shelves in ample stock around the end of October if not a week or two sooner.

Do not expect to see man 3080 FE cards. They weren’t really meant to be sold in high volumes. Nvidia basically just needed to say hey, we offered one awesome card for $699.

What they’d like history to forget is that they only had an extremely small number of those cards at launch. Hey we offered it! Just too bad “it” was not anywhere near the numbers people expected.

For instance not a single person I’m aware of on this forum was able to use a website on launch morning and receive a card. That’s a first in 15+ years I’ve been here.
 

exlink

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This has kind of been covered a few times here and at other outlets. Basically expect real stock and AIB card with double capacity memory to hit shelves in ample stock around the end of October if not a week or two sooner.

Do not expect to see man 3080 FE cards. They weren’t really meant to be sold in high volumes. Nvidia basically just needed to say hey, we offered one awesome card for $699.

What they’d like history to forget is that they only had an extremely small number of those cards at launch. Hey we offered it! Just too bad “it” was not anywhere near the numbers people expected.

For instance not a single person I’m aware of on this forum was able to use a website on launch morning and receive a card. That’s a first in 15+ years I’ve been here.
Is there any actual credible source on this timing or is this just pure speculation?
 

jmilcher

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Is there any actual credible source on this timing or is this just pure speculation?
There are so many threads, and some sources in them I’d consider credible. If it turns out the stock replenishes when these sources say, and the aib double capacity cards show up as the sources said, then.... that’s a slam dunk.

Nvidia would be wise not to comment. Which they have not.
 

exlink

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There are so many threads, and some sources in them I’d consider credible. If it turns out the stock replenishes when these sources say, and the aib double capacity cards show up as the sources said, then.... that’s a slam dunk.

Nvidia would be wise not to comment. Which they have not.
I've read through several threads here and on Reddit. While I see the 20GB variants mentioned and leaks of their SKUs existing, I haven't found a single credible source on the timing of their release. All discussions regarding the timing of the release have been pure speculation from what I've seen.
 

kilroy67

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I've read through several threads here and on Reddit. While I see the 20GB variants mentioned and leaks of their SKUs existing, I haven't found a single credible source on the timing of their release. All discussions regarding the timing of the release have been pure speculation from what I've seen.
I would rather wait a month or so and see what happens then buy a 3080 10gb now and regret if the come out with a 3070 with 16gb of vram,let alone 20gb.
 

exlink

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I would rather wait a month or so and see what happens then buy a 3080 10gb now and regret if the come out with a 3070 with 16gb of vram,let alone 20gb.
I'm still waiting on actual input from developers that 10GB isn't enough VRAM before I jump on that bandwagon. Don't feel like dropping extra $200+ (or however much it'll be) on doubling the VRAM if it'll only be beneficial in a small handful of games over the next 2 years. Especially if they would be games that I had no interest in playing in the first place.

My MSI RTX 3080 comes in on Tuesday. Going to keep it unopened for the 30 day return policy in case there is some sort of announcement any time soon. Really only wanted the RTX 3080 by CyberPunk 2077's release in November at the latest. Probably going to return/sell it anyway as I have an EVGA RTX 3080 FTW3 on backorder with Adorama that I'd much prefer from a water cooling perspective.
 

jmilcher

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I've read through several threads here and on Reddit. While I see the 20GB variants mentioned and leaks of their SKUs existing, I haven't found a single credible source on the timing of their release. All discussions regarding the timing of the release have been pure speculation from what I've seen.
Which is why I said we will see. If it all lines up, people aren’t as crazy as we think. Conspiracy theories aren’t always that. Some turn out to be be true. Especially the plausible logical ones.
 

somebrains

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Well, the question is whether or not retail arm of whatever is using behavior assisted filtering with their WAF or not.

Is there behavior assist thru their order fulfillment chain? Here's where an infrastructure centric person like me starts to advocate step functions and containers, so my tools can check what's going on every step of the way.

Maybe this is the time people should try some ML labs out. It may lead to a job, or better understanding of who and who not to do biz with.

It's like watching SQL injection from 2011-2016 go unabated when process had literally caught up to flipping a switch.....and still we saw deployments that were essentially unpatched + no vulnerability protection.

Same ol probs, new things to fight off.
 
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Hi all. Looking at the disaster of the 3080 launch that a massive amount of the cards were bought by bots/scalpers it tells us of the situation we could be towards getting a 3080/3090/3070 for the next few weeks as stock stabilizes. I do have a question to pose to all of you as to the forecast for the next few weeks but before I pose it I'd like to present a few degrees of nuance to think about concerning the question. First thing to address is the bots and the scalpers that used them. The bots were as effective as they were Thursday morning because nVIDIA gave our chance away. How? Easy. They gave everyone a day and time for the launch. Bots like the one from BounceAlerts for example need to be programmed/scripted ahead of time to work at their highest level of effectiveness. nVIDIA announced dates on September 1st. That gave every scalper who wanted to resell the card and every bot user who wanted a card for actual use 16 days to prime their bot for action. Take that into account and compare it to what Sony did on the PS5. They announced a preorder opening date and then let the online retailers launch preorders the night before. These bots were primed for the 17th on PS5 and the 16th. It threw off their timing and many people who weren't bots got the PS5.

Second thing to address concerning nuance to look at: big launches for next week and beyond. Not just the GeForce RTX 3090 Thursday but the XBox Series X & S 2 days before as that has preorders for those opening then. Plus eVGA launches their FTW3 3080s and ASUS launches their ROG Strix 3080. Then in October the 3070 and November? AMD's Xen 3 and Big Navi. This gives bot users/scalpers 2 something else's to pay attention for next week plus more 3080 stock with new models added to the restock. Anything to take their attention and money off of the 3080 helps us. While we saw on Thursday people spend up to $29,000 (the 42 sold to 1 dude from nVIDIA Store) on 3080's on Thursday these bot users/scalpers? They don't have unlimited disposable income to spend on tech product. At one point (especially if the scalpers who already got cards want more) they will run out of money if/when their ebay auctions go dry.

Third piece of nuance to address: the bot users/scalpers who didn't get 3080's on Thursday because inventory just ran out for them. That could be the thing that keeps this 3080 scalper spree going for a little while. People who didn't get into the action on Thursday who are still hungry to join in on the reindeer games (so to speak). It'll be interesting to see the impact they make going forward.

Last piece of nuance to address before I ask my question: Retailers and eTailers and whether or not they'll let restock dates and times go public either by their own admission or an employee tells somebody in alleged confidence where then that somebody will then leak it on social media. We already saw in another forum post (I think it was on page 13 or 14 of the post in question) where Jacob F at eVGA told a Twitter user more 3080's were coming but...didn't give an exact date and time. He just said, "Sometime next week". That was wise of him to do that. It throws bot users/scalpers off because if they know no date or time it means that when the stock comes back up as Add to Cart they got to program their bots on the fly which in turn gives the rest of us a window and with eShoppers like us here? We don't need long to complete an online order for a 3080.

Now the question: based on the nuance I provided (and possibly more you will come up with on your own) how much longer do you think we'll have to deal with bot users/scalpers devouring all the stock of the 3080? What does the forecast feel like to you? Write back with your thoughts and until next time I am out!



Simple,stop etailing. Walk into a puter store,and pre order CASH,as many are doing. You'll get your card in a week or two.
 

mnewxcv

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weren't aib's allowed to make custom cards with different memory configurations in the past?
 

Ready4Dis

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Simple,stop etailing. Walk into a puter store,and pre order CASH,as many are doing. You'll get your card in a week or two.
Sounds simple... let me just jump in my card, drive 4 hours to Microcenter to pre-order to find out they aren't taking pre-orders, then drive 4 hours home (ok, I could/would call first for this part of it). Wait for release and drive 4 more hours to see if they have any stock... then drive home 4 more hours with a sad face :(. Sounds legit, if only everyones situation were exactly the same maybe a one size fits all solution would work! Ok, best buy is only 1 1/2 hours away, but most of them never even got stock to begin with, so shorter trip to find out they have nothing. Great plan :). In all seriousness, it's not that simple for people to just run up to the closest "puter" shop. No, I'm not going to move my entire family just so I can be closer to a microcenter (unless they are offering a nice pay increase over my current job).

Anyways, I've heard the same rumors of late Octoboer (around AMD's launch, coincidence?) that there would be more availability. Most launches have low stock and take time for stock to stabilize, but this one was just ridiculous. NVidia apologizing for allowing bots to buy out all 3 of their FE cards on offer is just icing on the cake, lol. They won't admit they had barely any stock, and they keep touting they had 50 major retailers with stock... that's honestly not that many, and a lot of them barely had any cards. EVGA said something about getting "thousands" of cards this week and were sold out in minutes. ZOTAC had an issue with a preorder form that was up when it shouldn't have been and it received over 20,000 orders that were all cancelled. If demand for a ZOTAC base board was over 20k, how many are waiting on FE and EVGA models? They need 10's of thousands, or 100k to even make it feel like you had a chance of getting a card. I feel this is going to be the norm going forward sadly, over-hype, launch early to beat competitor knowing it's going to be a mess.

Oh, they edited it, lol
"Update 9/21/2020 10:50am PT: EVGA reached out to clarify that while it does have thousands of GPUs incoming, they will not all be available this week." So not only do they have "thousands" coming, but it's going to be spread out over more than a week, lol. Yeah, for sure you will see nothing before October.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/evga-to-stock-thousands-of-nvidia-rtx-3080-ampere-gpus-this-week

And this is classic: “We would rather the purchases go to legit consumers. During our manual review process, we have proceeded to cancel several suspect orders.” So bots bought all of their cards... during the manual process they canceled SEVERAL orders... not thousands, or hundreds.. several (inexact I know, but that doesn't sound like many to me).
https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-signals-rtx-3080-founders-edition-will-be-back-in-stock-next-week

It's likely going to be a while before we see any real stock, might as well sit back and see what AMD has to offer, who will most likely not have much availability either, but at least you will know the $/perf.
 
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Sounds simple... let me just jump in my card, drive 4 hours to Microcenter to pre-order to find out they aren't taking pre-orders, then drive 4 hours home (ok, I could/would call first for this part of it). Wait for release and drive 4 more hours to see if they have any stock... then drive home 4 more hours with a sad face :(. Sounds legit, if only everyones situation were exactly the same maybe a one size fits all solution would work! Ok, best buy is only 1 1/2 hours away, but most of them never even got stock to begin with, so shorter trip to find out they have nothing. Great plan :). In all seriousness, it's not that simple for people to just run up to the closest "puter" shop. No, I'm not going to move my entire family just so I can be closer to a microcenter (unless they are offering a nice pay increase over my current job).


Your an extreme outlier,as most are in a larger urban area close to a computer store. Drive for hours to find out!? Your 1st part of the response borders on hyperbole tbh.
Why not enter the current year and call one in advance ? No phone ? Use a VoIP ap,but calling is easy,your posting online here.... :)
 

VirtualMirage

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Your an extreme outlier,as most are in a larger urban area close to a computer store. Drive for hours to find out!? Your 1st part of the response borders on hyperbole tbh.
Why not enter the current year and call one in advance ? No phone ? Use a VoIP ap,but calling is easy,your posting online here.... :)
I also don't live in a large, urban area.

Nearest Micro Center for me is over 2 hours away plus they don't sell the model I am looking for, the Nvidia FE model for its size. I have a Best Buy that is about 20-25 minutes away and is pretty small as far as Best Buys go, their computer hardware stock has always been small and a bit outdated. Also, the model I am looking for is not being sold in stores and they are not taking any pre-orders.

I live in a pretty rural area (farms, fields, and rivers), so e-tailing is my link to being able to acquire modern tech without having to drive hours out of my way or moving. I have fast internet, fresh air, privacy, and my neighbors are not living on top of me. I'd prefer to keep it that way if possible.
 
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I also don't live in a large, urban area.

Nearest Micro Center for me is over 2 hours away plus they don't sell the model I am looking for, the Nvidia FE model for its size. I have a Best Buy that is about 20-25 minutes away and is pretty small as far as Best Buys go, their computer hardware stock has always been small and a bit outdated. Also, the model I am looking for is not being sold in stores and they are not taking any pre-orders.

I live in a pretty rural area (farms, fields, and rivers), so e-tailing is my link to being able to acquire modern tech without having to drive hours out of my way or moving. I have fast internet, fresh air, privacy, and my neighbors are not living on top of me. I'd prefer to keep it that way if possible.


That's great,and I envy your living arrangements,but most,the vast majority live near a brick and mortar that can help them out.My city is under 950k has 3 BestBuys and over a dozen computer stores within 30 miles. I hope you get the card you want asap.
 

lopoetve

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That's great,and I envy your living arrangements,but most,the vast majority live near a brick and mortar that can help them out.My city is under 950k has 3 BestBuys and over a dozen computer stores within 30 miles. I hope you get the card you want asap.

We have best buys, but only one MicroCenter, and the BB are... not good at computer parts (Denver area).
 
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None, he's just trying to instigate which is clear by his responses. Best to not feed the trolls.


Check my reply,and stop accusing. All are DOING PRE ORDERS FOR 3080's IN PERSON ONLY,except Mem Exp which was as far as I know doing both. Canada Computes has 38 in person brick and mortar locations. Or did you also assume everyone here lives in the Continental USA?
 
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thesmokingman

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$300 for 10 GB more VRAM? No thanks. For $850 or so I might consider it.

To be fair its a helluva lot cheaper than $800 more for a 3090, lol.

The 3080 with 20GB vram will be the sweet spot for video/animation production use imo. Guys I work with have moved away from the 3090 and are targeting this card.
 

MavericK

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To be fair its a helluva lot cheaper than $800 more for a 3090, lol.

The 3080 with 20GB vram will be the sweet spot for video/animation production use imo. Guys I work with have moved away from the 3090 and are targeting this card.

True, I guess for gaming I don't see the appeal at that price. I could just save the money and buy a new, faster card in a couple years when >10GB of VRAM actually matters for more than a couple of edge cases.
 

Ready4Dis

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Check my reply,and stop accusing. All are DOING PRE ORDERS FOR 3080's IN PERSON ONLY,except Mem Exp which was as far as I know doing both. Canada Computes has 38 in person brick and mortar locations. Or did you also assume everyone here lives in the Continental USA?
I'm not assuming anything. I'm pointing out not everyone has one nearby. You were the one casting a large net saying to just go to a store. I was merely pointing out it's not that easy for everyone. And not all B&M stores were doing pre-orders (most weren't), so even if it was available for a quick 4 hour drive, they weren't doing them anyways so again, it isn't as simple as you make it seem for everyone. Anyways, if you have the option, cool, if not, well, it happens as well so no need to rub it in ;).
 

raz-0

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Now the question: based on the nuance I provided (and possibly more you will come up with on your own) how much longer do you think we'll have to deal with bot users/scalpers devouring all the stock of the 3080? What does the forecast feel like to you? Write back with your thoughts and until next time I am out!

Your nuances really don't matter much at all.

There's some simple things we don't know the answer to yet. One of them is how many nvidia can make and will make.

The other is how much the crypto miners want them.

If they are killer crypto miners, then unless nivida can make a shit ton of them, expect the scalpers to stick around for these cards until next year. Right now I've seen things that say the 3080 can return $3 a day per card in profit. If you are the one running the scalper bot because you want a farm rather than to flip and pay say $750 a pop, that's 8 months to get your money back. Seems lame to me, but I guess over two years its maybe $1400 if they don't lose too much ground to difficulty increases.


Another factor will be the double ram cards and performance. I suspect chip for chip, either the big memory card or the small memory card will be the most efficient for one of the two main tasks of gaming or mining. I could see a possible situation where given the above math, and if the low memory card is the right move for miners, that they would supply that initially knowing they would shit all over a launch anyway, and then drop the high memory cards for gamers so long as you have the cash. Or it could be completely flipped. Low memory card might be all a gamer needs if they can't afford a $2000 monitor, and the doube ram cards may be where the miners and people who need to flex their e-peen go and fight it out while us plebes just buy the readily available low memory cards.
 
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I'm not assuming anything. I'm pointing out not everyone has one nearby. You were the one casting a large net saying to just go to a store. I was merely pointing out it's not that easy for everyone. And not all B&M stores were doing pre-orders (most weren't), so even if it was available for a quick 4 hour drive, they weren't doing them anyways so again, it isn't as simple as you make it seem for everyone. Anyways, if you have the option, cool, if not, well, it happens as well so no need to rub it in ;).


I hear you,I do,what set me off was you saying I was trolling,when I am not.

I hope you can find a card at or near MSRP before November 19th. GL. :)
 

Ready4Dis

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I hear you,I do,what set me off was you saying I was trolling,when I am not.

I hope you can find a card at or near MSRP before November 19th. GL. :)
Sorry, it just seemed like your respons where looking for a reaction, hard to read intent and emotion through a post of course. I apologize as it seems that was not your intention. Thanks for keeping a rather cool head though.

Anyways, back on topic. Yeah, I'm hoping things settle down over the next month or two! If not, I'm not that worried honestly, I came but not that hardcore into it anymore. The game won't be any different if I play it a month later (wells maybe some bugs worked out, lol).
 
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