XBox 360 launch: success or failure thus far?

[biggles]

I say failure based on the following:
1. Widespread hardware shortages.
2. Lackluster intial games, plus many of them are not exclusives.
3. Possibly widespread hardware problems (though the actual incidences are hard to determine precisely).

Now, I realize some of these things do commonly happen when new consoles are launched. However, the last 2 consoles I purchased at launch date were Dreamcast and Playstation 1, so that is my benchmark for what I expect from a hardware launch. In neither case were the problems this severe. I picked up a PS2 a long time after it was launched but heard it had a pretty crappy launch as well with similar problems to the XBox 360.

At this point it seems money would be better spent upgrading one's PC rather than picking up a 360 (if you could even find one for a reasonable price). Although, I'm keeping an open mind and would consider a purchase if/when these problems are addressed.

 

[IAmSpoli]

The reason for the lack of inventory anywhere you look is becasue of the imperfect released design by microsoft. The next gen xbox360's which you will pick up in stores in summer should have all kinks worked out and the games should be widespread and deadly enjoyable


This shit happens, especially to Microsoft, but watch it bounce up higher than a plane

 

[Hvatum]

I say failure based on the following:
1. Widespread hardware shortages.
2. Lackluster intial games, plus many of them are not exclusives.
3. Possibly widespread hardware problems (though the actual incidences are hard to determine precisely).

Now, I realize some of these things do commonly happen when new consoles are launched. However, the last 2 consoles I purchased at launch date were Dreamcast and Playstation 1, so that is my benchmark for what I expect from a hardware launch. In neither case were the problems this severe. I picked up a PS2 a long time after it was launched but heard it had a pretty crappy launch as well with similar problems to the XBox 360.

At this point it seems money would be better spent upgrading one's PC rather than picking up a 360 (if you could even find one for a reasonable price). Although, I'm keeping an open mind and would consider a purchase if/when these problems are addressed.

The whole venture is a failure as far as profitability goes. I believe Microsoft has lost over four billion dollars on the XBOX and they're set to lose even more on the XBOX 360.

 

[WestCoastEagle]

The whole venture is a failure as far as profitability goes. I believe Microsoft has lost over four billion dollars on the XBOX and they're set to lose even more on the XBOX 360.

Have you got any financials to back up this belief?

Im not taking a shot at you, i would just like to know because i have heard similar statements before.

 

[Hvatum]

Have you got any financials to back up this belief?

Im not taking a shot at you, i would just like to know because i have heard similar statements before.

Middle of the page.

http://www.forbes.com/business/global/2005/1003/036A_4.html

Microsoft's gaming division has lost $4 Billion dollars and that division is bolstered by profitable PC games so the XBOX has probably lost even more. Microsoft obviously doesn't release specific information on how much money the XBOX has lost. Feel free to sift through their quarterly report though.

 

[flynlr]

Middle of the page.

http://www.forbes.com/business/global/2005/1003/036A_4.html

Microsoft's gaming division has lost $4 Billion dollars and that division is bolstered by profitable PC games so the XBOX has probably lost even more. Microsoft obviously doesn't release specific information on how much money the XBOX has lost. Feel free to sift through their quarterly report though.

I wouldnt care if MS lost 8 trillion on the Xbox360 anything that hurts $ony in my book is good.

 

[aeon]

They may be losing all of that money, but they're making it back and even more by selling games and other things. I mean why would a company build a system and lose so much money and than build another?? They're making money in some way.....

 

[steviep]

Nope, Microsoft indeed did lose that money, and are losing already this round. Why are they doing it? For a piece of the gaming pie, plain and simple. Eventually, if they have enough marketshare, they'll start making money... EVENTUALLY. But not anytime soon.

Was this launch a failure? Depends which side of my survey you're on. If you're on the side of "originality" = next gen, then yes, it was an almost-abysmal failure (aside from the fake hardware shortages and faulty units, and Kameo), if "awesome graphics" and "sequels" or "better/more of everything, including $$$, in XBox Live" are your cup of tea, then the XBox360 is for you. I haven't seen anything yet that makes me want to get one, personally. But that may change if they pull a game out that I really want that I just can't get anywhere else... and no, Halo isn't it. Give me a reason to buy, Microsoft, and I will gladly shell out the $600. So far, there hasn't been a single thing. Change my mind, damn you MS!

 

[Lakedaimon]

it hasnt been pretty, but the launch has been reasonably successful. people want the console, people were lining up all night for the thing all across the country. problems with the hardware aside they still have a hot product (no pun intended) and it will continue to sell very well. like most new consoles games tie-in will probably be poor for a few months until some of the AAA titles start coming out. Microsoft is jealously clutching to their (in my opinion flawed) belief that coming out first = teh win.

a failure would be Ngage, and the revised Ngage that most people dont even know exists.

 

[Draax]

You just need to look at the demand for the XBOX360 to see this launch was a huge success.

It amazes me that people still don't get how consoles are sold. Every single console, except for the GC, has been sold at a loss. That's how the industry works, get over it, they make the money up in licensing and game sales. Microsoft has changed the way licensing works, and to make peripherals for the 360 you have to pay a licensing fee. The loss on the actual hardware of the console is factored into the price of the games and peripherals from the very beginning.

 

[biggles]

You just need to look at the demand for the XBOX360 to see this launch was a huge success.

It amazes me that people still don't get how consoles are sold. Every single console, except for the GC, has been sold at a loss. That's how the industry works, get over it, they make the money up in licensing and game sales. Microsoft has changed the way licensing works, and to make peripherals for the 360 you have to pay a licensing fee. The loss on the actual hardware of the console is factored into the price of the games and peripherals from the very beginning.

Are you serious? How much worse would it have to be in order to be called a failure? Just because demand outstripped a very limited supply, that doesn't make it a success.

Lakedaimon: I don't think the Ngage is a good benchmark for measuring the success of a console launch. Try comparing PS1 or Dreamcast launches instead. Notably, the Dreamcast had a superb launch but ultimately failed. Similarly, the 360s ultimate success is highly unlikely to depend on current events.

Also, I heard a rumor that NPR reported a 15% failure rate on 360s...that is not good.

 

[XOR != OR]

You just need to look at the demand for the XBOX360 to see this launch was a huge success.

I would agree with this, *if* MS had the inventory to satisfy the xmas crowd.

They don't.

So as it stands, only a select few got one, and everyone else who wanted one got a bad taste in their mouth for this kind of crap. Of the people I've spoken with, none of them believe that the shortage of xboxes was anything but planned. And most of them are resentful of it. Not because they wanted one, but because they wanted to get one for their son/friend/boyfriend/husband for xmas.

As far as PR is concerned, I would consider the launch a failure.

 

[xTABx7]

You just need to look at the demand for the XBOX360 to see this launch was a huge success.

It amazes me that people still don't get how consoles are sold. Every single console, except for the GC, has been sold at a loss. That's how the industry works, get over it, they make the money up in licensing and game sales. Microsoft has changed the way licensing works, and to make peripherals for the 360 you have to pay a licensing fee. The loss on the actual hardware of the console is factored into the price of the games and peripherals from the very beginning.

QFT, Microsoft is much to smart of a company to simply lose money like that w/out a reason

 

[Draax]

Are you serious? How much worse would it have to be in order to be called a failure? Just because demand outstripped a very limited supply, that doesn't make it a success.

When I am in the super market and I hear two 40+ year old ladies, discussing the XBOX360, and they are actually knowledgeable about the games and the basic hardware of the system, I consider it a complete success.

 

[bazylik]

I look at it as a failure, MS launches 500-700K which was sold out in two hours. It's been weeke and a half and no consoles since, but MS claims they'll have shipments every week ano no 360's to be found. They can't keep up with demand = failure. I don't believe this to be a fake shortage anymore.

 

[Draax]

I look at it as a failure, MS launches 500-700K which was sold out in two hours. It's been weeke and a half and no consoles since, but MS claims they'll have shipments every week ano no 360's to be found. They can't keep up with demand = failure. I don't believe this to be a fake shortage anymore.

It is very clear that there are shipments being sent out constantly. There was a seperate thread about this, and the guy who runs this website even chipped and said he knows for a fact that shipments are being sent and recieved. In addition there has a different thread in these forums where users were saying they have recieved there XBOX in a second wave of shipments.

 

[bazylik]

Im not counting the EB and Gamestop and such where they are fullfilling their preorders, I'm talking about stores where they sell it on "who gets here first, gets servered first" basis.

 

[Draax]

Im not counting the EB and Gamestop and such where they are fullfilling their preorders, I'm talking about stores where they sell it on "who gets here first, gets servered first" basis.

Which is exactly what Steve said he did.

Actually, some large retailers have recieved second shipments already. We were able to walk right into our local BB and grab two consoles for the [H]ard|OCP test labs this weekend.

 

[hkhawk]

I say failure because of:

CORE Systems!

Nobody wants them. People only bought them because the couldn't get the premium. Selling core systems was so stupid on Microsoft's part. Now they can't let developers use the HD as an integral part of the system or anything. They probably would have sold the 360s FASTER if they had all been premiums. Just look at ebay, the cores are selling for HUNDREDS less than the premiums even though the list price is only $100 less. People don't want those crappy core consoles!

 

[MovieMan80]

Would you have preferred MS to delay the 360 until they had adequate supply to stock the shelves?

I think the launch of the 360 was a success. They've sold all their units and created a lot of buzz. The 360 will probably continue to be sold out everywhere until after christmas due to the fact that every store will sell out as soon as the new systems get put onthe shelves. Lack of supply doesn't always mean a failed launch, sometimes it's impossible to have enough to satisfy the demand.

The 'overall' success of the 360 won't be determined for a couple years. It's going to depend a lot of second and third generation games made for it and how well it fares against the PS3's launch. With the release of Halo 3 at the same time as the PS3 it should be a good indicator of how well the 360 influences the PS3.

 

[urbsnspices]

I say failure based on the following:
1. Widespread hardware shortages.
.

If people did not get one in the first shipment are they going to 'give up'? Some will, most wont. Im a sheep personally, If I dont get something I wanted at launch I will keep trying. I think the only thing I ever gave up trying to get was the last time they had Shamrock-Shakes at McDonalds. They didnt have them available even though there were launch signs up everywhere so I just got a strawberry and didnt look back.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Maybe the shortages are because of the ATi part...

 

[gizo]

I say failure because of availability. If I can't buy one because they aren't at the store, then that product has failed.

 

[SuX0rz]

I don't understand why people think that the "shortages" are a failure buy MS. Maybe some of you are jaded because you didn't get one but people are foaming at the mouth to get one of these consoles. It’s like all Christmas items before it...tickle-me-elmo, furby, Apple iPod, etc. Now MS has the consumers right where they want them. The second the consoles show up any where there will be a guaranteed sell out. It was a marketing strategy and it has been used before. MS knows what they are doing.

 

[bazylik]

Which is exactly what Steve said he did.

He must've been very lucky because I just don't see myself coming in to BB and walkin with an 360 just like that. I call everyday to my local BB, CC< costco, BJ's you name it and they have either no clue when it's coming, or i get "before x-mas" answer, or they are not telling me for whatever reason when i call. Maybe because I leave in NY and beacuse city is so crowded i can't find one.

If i heard that there were shipments and people were buing them every week than it would be succesfull launch, but since MS can't keep up and constantly lies about weekly shipments than it makes a failure in my eyes

 

[lopoetve]

I say failure based on the following:
1. Widespread hardware shortages.
2. Lackluster intial games, plus many of them are not exclusives.
3. Possibly widespread hardware problems (though the actual incidences are hard to determine precisely).

Now, I realize some of these things do commonly happen when new consoles are launched. However, the last 2 consoles I purchased at launch date were Dreamcast and Playstation 1, so that is my benchmark for what I expect from a hardware launch. In neither case were the problems this severe. I picked up a PS2 a long time after it was launched but heard it had a pretty crappy launch as well with similar problems to the XBox 360.

At this point it seems money would be better spent upgrading one's PC rather than picking up a 360 (if you could even find one for a reasonable price). Although, I'm keeping an open mind and would consider a purchase if/when these problems are addressed.

1. so?
2. Not true.
3. Also not true.

PS2 didn't have hardware problems, it was just in short supply. Dreamcast was a perfect launch though

I love my X360.

 

[DragonMasterAlex]

I look at it as a failure, MS launches 500-700K which was sold out in two hours. It's been weeke and a half and no consoles since, but MS claims they'll have shipments every week ano no 360's to be found. They can't keep up with demand = failure. I don't believe this to be a fake shortage anymore.

No, there ARE shipments coming--a friend of mine got his last night at Target

Jason

 

[DragonMasterAlex]

1. so?
2. Not true.
3. Also not true.

PS2 didn't have hardware problems, it was just in short supply. Dreamcast was a perfect launch though

I love my X360.

Umm, no, PS2 had LOTS of hardware problems, not the least of which is the infamous disk read error, which occured across more than one revision of the console. I *personally* had 3 different PS2's within 90 days of launch, and the third lasted until 2004, when it started to get the disk read errors again, at which point I traded it and $50 for the new PS2 slim when it first came out.

Chances are that the hardware issues are a small percentage of the total, and that most consumers won't even know about them, much less care. Subsequent generations of Xbox 360 will correct the issues, no doubt, and when PS3 launches MS will have already established a mature platform with a hundred or so games, dozens of 2nd generation titles hitting the market when PS3 launches with its 20 or so half-baked launch titles.

There's no guarantee of success, but MS is, so far, doing a great job, minor flubs aside. Frankly, IMHO the only console that really seems "Next Generation" to me is the new Revolution from Nintendo. Sony and Microsoft are just giving us prettier versions of the same old sh1t.

Jason

 

[bazylik]

No, there ARE shipments coming--a friend of mine got his last night at Target

Jason

Ah shit! Than I'm just out of luck. That really sucks.

 

[biggles]

Would you have preferred MS to delay the 360 until they had adequate supply to stock the shelves?

I think the launch of the 360 was a success. They've sold all their units and created a lot of buzz. The 360 will probably continue to be sold out everywhere until after christmas due to the fact that every store will sell out as soon as the new systems get put onthe shelves. Lack of supply doesn't always mean a failed launch, sometimes it's impossible to have enough to satisfy the demand.

The 'overall' success of the 360 won't be determined for a couple years. It's going to depend a lot of second and third generation games made for it and how well it fares against the PS3's launch. With the release of Halo 3 at the same time as the PS3 it should be a good indicator of how well the 360 influences the PS3.

No, I would not have preferred the 360 to be delayed until supply was adequate, but it should have been throughly tested for hardware and software defects before release. A 15% failure rate is unacceptable in conjunction with hardware shortages. Folks with unit problems cannot get a timely replacement unit since they aren't available and that isn't fair.

As for the overall success of the 360, its got a bright future. MS has deep pockets, XBox live is impressive, and they have learned a lot in the latest round of console wars. The fact that 360 is less powerful than PS3 may work to its advantage in the same way that programmers coded their games for PS2 so that they were often not much worse looking than XBox conversions. So, I believe we will all look back in a few years and admire the success of the 360 despite a screwed up launch.

 

[Prim3]

I think its a failure... Why? Does not live up to any hype. Nothing of the system is ground breaking and all the titles expect 2 are exclusive. A few of the major titles have been pushed back into 2006 further hurting the system or even poeple not gonna worry about getting one till next year.

Also, as for them being avaible to buy. I have a few friends behind the counter of a EB games in my town. Went in yesterday and was asking so, you guys sell out your systems. How many did you get, and how many have you gotten to Since release? And how many have come back?

Answers were. They did sell out of course. They got I think 10 prem, and 5 core, and they have gotten 0 snice launch and don't even know when they hell they will be geting them. They had 0 come back, but they said, they know at least 3-4 went to ebay, 1 or 2 as gifts, and they don't know how many of them just got sent back to the factory.

As for 2 systems types of systems.. It was a way out for MS to get more money later from poeple who didn't have the cash for the prem. But what doesn't make snice is half the places out there filled bundle orders before single console sales. So, poeple that got a core system are even bigger tools then the kids waiting in the rain for a system they were forced to put another 400-500 dollars of crap into. Not everyone out there wanted 2 games all the extra crap, becuase some were gonna be gifts ya know and ebay =p

edit: Oh and when ps2 launched. I do remember poeple buying them a week after the first launch did even being "sold" out and hard to find. It was just becase everyone is buying them. I bet the PSP would have sold a bit better if they released it a holiday.. If I remember right, this will be the first PSP christmas and we will see how the sales are for them.
edit edit: BTW, anyone see these last generation PS2 games coming out? Shadows of Collossus? FF12, and a few other titles are stellar. It's like, they held back for so damn long to produce some really beautiful games.

 

[Archer75]

The isn't really a hardware shortage. It's a staggard release schedule. Stores should all be getting a new shipment of 360's in time for this weekend. New shipments will be arriving weekly.
Hardware issues are few. And alot of what you are hearing are Sony !!!!!!s who don't even own a 360. It's a smear campaign. Nothing new really. I expect Microsoft !!!!!!s will do the same when the PS3 launches.
I'm not saying there aren't hardware problems but it's pretty rare.

 

[Erasmus354]

No, I would not have preferred the 360 to be delayed until supply was adequate, but it should have been throughly tested for hardware and software defects before release. A 15% failure rate is unacceptable in conjunction with hardware shortages. Folks with unit problems cannot get a timely replacement unit since they aren't available and that isn't fair.

As for the overall success of the 360, its got a bright future. MS has deep pockets, XBox live is impressive, and they have learned a lot in the latest round of console wars. The fact that 360 is less powerful than PS3 may work to its advantage in the same way that programmers coded their games for PS2 so that they were often not much worse looking than XBox conversions. So, I believe we will all look back in a few years and admire the success of the 360 despite a screwed up launch.

How do you know it is a 15% failure rate? That is something some dude said on some internet forum that he thought came from NPR. First of all NPR never said that, second of all would you trust those whack jobs at NPR to even know anything about the 360 much less the failure rate?

I got a broken 360 and I still think the launch was a success. People who whine about supply and say they failed are just upset they dont have one, or they are Sony/Nintendo whores.

 

[Slartibartfast]

the best part about this forum is that if you have an opinion you're called a "whiner."

 

[lopoetve]

Are you serious? How much worse would it have to be in order to be called a failure? Just because demand outstripped a very limited supply, that doesn't make it a success.

Lakedaimon: I don't think the Ngage is a good benchmark for measuring the success of a console launch. Try comparing PS1 or Dreamcast launches instead. Notably, the Dreamcast had a superb launch but ultimately failed. Similarly, the 360s ultimate success is highly unlikely to depend on current events.

Also, I heard a rumor that NPR reported a 15% failure rate on 360s...that is not good.

NPR's number is total BS, and they've admitted that it was falsely inflated from reports from people with simpler problems that hadn't been diagnosed yet.

As for the first, how much better could it be? They sold out, the system does everything it was advertized to do, and does it well. It's the most powerful system currently out there, has the best graphics, good DVD playback, media center connectivity, the ability to downlad and play HD content over the web, etc. It has several GOOD games, good controlers, and is either working great, or you've got a new one overnighted to you from microsoft. Now it would have been nice if there were more out there for sale, but meh, better to release what you got insead of delaying it. I was willing to camp for it, and I've got one

 

[lopoetve]

I think its a failure... Why? Does not live up to any hype. Nothing of the system is ground breaking and all the titles expect 2 are exclusive. A few of the major titles have been pushed back into 2006 further hurting the system or even poeple not gonna worry about getting one till next year.

Also, as for them being avaible to buy. I have a few friends behind the counter of a EB games in my town. Went in yesterday and was asking so, you guys sell out your systems. How many did you get, and how many have you gotten to Since release? And how many have come back?

Answers were. They did sell out of course. They got I think 10 prem, and 5 core, and they have gotten 0 snice launch and don't even know when they hell they will be geting them. They had 0 come back, but they said, they know at least 3-4 went to ebay, 1 or 2 as gifts, and they don't know how many of them just got sent back to the factory.

As for 2 systems types of systems.. It was a way out for MS to get more money later from poeple who didn't have the cash for the prem. But what doesn't make snice is half the places out there filled bundle orders before single console sales. So, poeple that got a core system are even bigger tools then the kids waiting in the rain for a system they were forced to put another 400-500 dollars of crap into. Not everyone out there wanted 2 games all the extra crap, becuase some were gonna be gifts ya know and ebay =p

edit: Oh and when ps2 launched. I do remember poeple buying them a week after the first launch did even being "sold" out and hard to find. It was just becase everyone is buying them. I bet the PSP would have sold a bit better if they released it a holiday.. If I remember right, this will be the first PSP christmas and we will see how the sales are for them.
edit edit: BTW, anyone see these last generation PS2 games coming out? Shadows of Collossus? FF12, and a few other titles are stellar. It's like, they held back for so damn long to produce some really beautiful games.

How did it not live up to hype? It has the best graphics of any console out there, it does everything it was supposed to do, and more. How is full 1080i support not ground breaking? How is media connectivity not ground breaking? No one has done either before. It has several GOOD games, and more on the way.

And yes, I've played shadows and the FF12 demo and others.

They don't hold a candle in terms of graphics quality to any of the X360 launch titles. Not that they're not good games, but still.

 

[biggles]

How do you know it is a 15% failure rate? That is something some dude said on some internet forum that he thought came from NPR. First of all NPR never said that, second of all would you trust those whack jobs at NPR to even know anything about the 360 much less the failure rate?

I got a broken 360 and I still think the launch was a success. People who whine about supply and say they failed are just upset they dont have one, or they are Sony/Nintendo whores.

Well as I said in the original post, the precise failure rate is difficult to determine. It's not in Microsoft's interests to share that information. What is your estimate of the failure rate? Based on what source?

The opinion that the launch is a failure thus far is well supported by evidence. This has nothing to do with being a !!!!!!. Many rational gamers do not want a console that may be defective, that has no killer apps (like Soul Calibur Dreamcast), and that would require great efforts to obtain at retail price. Also, the sooner Microsoft fixes these problems, the better it is for all gamers.

 

[lopoetve]

No, I would not have preferred the 360 to be delayed until supply was adequate, but it should have been throughly tested for hardware and software defects before release. A 15% failure rate is unacceptable in conjunction with hardware shortages. Folks with unit problems cannot get a timely replacement unit since they aren't available and that isn't fair.

As for the overall success of the 360, its got a bright future. MS has deep pockets, XBox live is impressive, and they have learned a lot in the latest round of console wars. The fact that 360 is less powerful than PS3 may work to its advantage in the same way that programmers coded their games for PS2 so that they were often not much worse looking than XBox conversions. So, I believe we will all look back in a few years and admire the success of the 360 despite a screwed up launch.

Quite the contrary, Microsoft has promised to overnight replacement units to people that have problems. They, like any other business, kept a supply in store to replace broken and damaged items. So yes, you CAN get a timely replacement, if you call microsoft. That's what they've instructed people to do, and if you owned one and looked at the user manual, you'd see those instructions in there as well (they've also posted them on the internet over and over again). Don't take it back to EB, call them instead. If anything, they've stepped up perfectly.

 

[Draax]

When I was in College, the most important aspect of product marketing, was identified as "perceived value". After reading some posts in many a thread I can see where the XBOX360, fails to some customers.

Perceived value, not true value, is the major selling point to any next gen console. The reason I say the 360 failed in perceived value, is that people, be it incorrectly or correctly, perceive the valve of the console as limited if they don't have an HDTV. IMO this is not a truth, but truths matter very little when it comes to perceived valve. The media has done a very good job at telling potential customers you need a HDTV to enjoy the console, which will hurt initial sales.

I also think it fails, to some gamers, in this same category, in the limited launch line up of games. What we have to remember is that this is the very start of the XBOX 360 lifecycle. We all know that there are games, already coming down the tubes, which are the killer app for this product: Gears of War, Halo 3, Ghost Recon.

The early adopter market niche is already scooping the 360 up, but the early adopter niche is limited and will not sustain the console. I do believe, that the main stream gamer will see the value in this system, as time progresses, the 360 enters more households, and the killer apps arrive for the product.

 

[lopoetve]

Well as I said in the original post, the precise failure rate is difficult to determine. It's not in Microsoft's interests to share that information. What is your estimate of the failure rate? Based on what source?

The opinion that the launch is a failure thus far is well supported by evidence. This has nothing to do with being a !!!!!!. Many rational gamers do not want a console that may be defective, that has no killer apps (like Soul Calibur Dreamcast), and that would require great efforts to obtain at retail price. Also, the sooner Microsoft fixes these problems, the better it is for all gamers.

From the 15 units my friends and I have had pass through our hands, I'd estimate at a little less than 10%. We had 2 bad units, one with a power supply that was busted and one that had a bad core. Both were replaced by microsoft VERY rapidly (within 2 days), which is more than we could have asked for. (NO, we were'nt selling 15 of them, some were gifts, etc. 6 familys involved ) Combine that with the polls here and on GenMay, and I get ~10%

I still don't see anything that has been pointed out that would make the launch a failure.

Great DVD playback
Full 1080i HDTV support.
Great game lineup
Media Center connectivity.
Backwards compatibility
etc.

Other than a short supply, which can't be taken either way, I can't see anything that is going poorly.