Why video card prices are still so high?

What work? (VR is not actually moving you around so no 20%-30% there:))

I am actually accurate.

What work? All the output that happens. Graphics on your screen, the millions of calculations per second it takes for everything you do on a computer... All that is work, it takes energy. It's not all converted into heat. I don't think you're accurate at all. If all the energy is converted to heat, computers wouldn't be able to do what they do because there would be no energy left for actual work and desired output. If you think you are accurate, please tell me how is it that I'm able to make this post and how did you manage to read it? Where did that energy come from if everything that was used from your outlet was converted into heat?

My example of motion was related to vehicles doing work. Computers do work also, just a different type, and neither cars nor computers convert all the energy used into heat.

In fact, if what you're saying is accurate. Power supplies would actually be heaters. If all the energy they used were converted into heat, the box would just get red hot and not be able to output any usable power.
 
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What work? All the output that happens. Graphics on your screen, the millions of calculations per second it takes for everything you do on a computer... All that is work, it takes energy. It's not all converted into heat. I don't think you're accurate at all. If all the energy is converted to heat, computers wouldn't be able to do what they do because there would be no energy left for actual work and desired output. If you think you are accurate, please tell me how is it that I'm able to make this post and how did you manage to read it? Where did that energy come from if everything that was used from your outlet was converted into heat?

My example of motion was related to vehicles doing work. Computers do work also, just a different type, and neither cars nor computers convert all the energy used into heat.

In fact, if what you're saying is accurate. Power supplies would actually be heaters. If all the energy they used were converted into heat, the box would just get red hot and not be able to output any usable power.
Which generates what? -> you got it - heat. Also known as I^2R losses or what your typical heater does with electrical current. A car, most of the wasted energy is heat, some is converted to electrical energy which in most cases turns into heat from light bulbs, transistors, heater. Mechanical energy in your air conditioner compressor does what - turns into heat as well - heat of compression - friction from bearings . . . Now in the car example you do displace mass (travel a distance) which takes work so not all is lost to heat. Computer sits there, consumes energy (it does not disappear) it stays right there except for some radio waves - the light emitted from your monitor, and ghetto case lights gets absorbed by materials in the room - yep turns into heat - if some goes outside the window you lost that trivial amount of energy. Anyways virtually 1w in a computer = 1w of heat out. That is how it is man.
 
Which generates what? -> you got it - heat. Also known as I^2R losses or what your typical heater does with electrical current. A car, most of the wasted energy is heat, some is converted to electrical energy which in most cases turns into heat from light bulbs, transistors, heater. Mechanical energy in your air conditioner compressor does what - turns into heat as well - heat of compression - friction from bearings . . . Now in the car example you do displace mass which takes work so not all is lost to heat. Computer sits there, consumes energy (it does not disappear) it stays right there except for some radio waves - the light emitted from your monitor, and ghetto case lights gets absorbed by materials in the room - yep turns into heat - if some goes outside the window you lost that trivial amount of energy. Anyways virtually 1w in a computer = 1w out of heat out. That is how it is man.

Heat is always a byproduct when converting from one type of energy into another, this is why nothing is 100% efficient. that is not the same thing as EVERYTHING is 0% efficient which is what you are saying. If I drive to Vegas, some of the potential energy stored in the gasoline was used to move me and my 2 ton vehicle the 350 miles necessary to get there. Was most of it heat? yes because gas engines are horribly inefficient, computers are a whole lot more efficient. I think it's laughable that you are telling me how things work and at the same time think an internal combustion engine is MORE efficient than a computer. You seem to be under the impression that energy either needs to be used for locomotion or be wasted as heat.

I'd love for you to explain to me how my power supply doesn't turn into a molten pile of garbage when consuming 500 watts while my 80watt soldering iron gets red hot. Could it be that one device is designed to output most of the energy used as heat and the other to actually do work? I think you need to do some more googling.
 
Heat is always a byproduct when converting from one type of energy into another, this is why nothing is 100% efficient. that is not the same thing as EVERYTHING is 0% efficient which is what you are saying. If I drive to Vegas, some of the potential energy stored in the gasoline was used to move me and my 2 ton vehicle the 350 miles necessary to get there. Was most of it heat? yes because gas engines are horribly inefficient, computers are a whole lot more efficient. I think it's laughable that you are telling me how things work and at the same time think an internal combustion engine is MORE efficient than a computer. You seem to be under the impression that energy either needs to be used for locomotion or be wasted as heat.

I'd love for you to explain to me how my power supply doesn't turn into a molten pile of garbage when consuming 500 watts while my 80watt soldering iron gets red hot. Could it be that one device is designed to output most of the energy used as heat and the other to actually do work? I think you need to do some more googling.
That is one inefficient power supply, I too wonder why it isn't a piece of slag too. Heat is not always a byproduct, there are different forms of energy as in electrical to radio waves. Your examples are a Carnot cycle or heat engine that does mechanical work - in a computer the fans and water cooler is about the only thing that does mechanical work. If your cpu consumes 100w of power - you will get 100w of heat out of it with anything it supplies, cpu's are not 100% isolated in energy received as in some of the electrical energy may supply ram which also heats up :D.

The bottom line is, using a heater is stupid if you can use the same power and get virtually the same heat mining and make more money than you would spend heating your home with a heater.
 
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That is one inefficient power supply, I too wonder why it isn't a piece of slag too. Heat is not always a byproduct, there are different forms of energy as in electrical to radio waves. Your examples are a Carnot cycle or heat engine that does mechanical work - in a computer the fans and water cooler is about the only thing that does mechanical work. If your cpu consumes 100w of power - you will get 100w of heat out of it with anything it supplies, cpu's are not 100% isolated in energy received as in some of the electrical energy may supply ram which also heats up :D.

First you say everything gets converted to heat, now you say it isn't even a byproduct.

Heat is ALWAYS a byproduct when converting from one form of energy to another. Always without exception. A by-product, not the only-product.

So now you're saying it's the CPU and RAM that are 0% efficient? Why? Why is my power supply not converting 100% of the energy used into heat but my RAM and CPU are? I bet you won't be able to answer that just like you haven't been able to answer where this magical energy is coming form that actually allows CPU to you know... Process things...
 
I just can't stand hypocrites. People that sit there and burn 25-100KW a month mining and then tell us regular folks that we should be Green and drive electric and AL Gore was right and if we are not green we are enemies of the planet and all this bullshit.
 
First you say everything gets converted to heat, now you say it isn't even a byproduct.

Heat is ALWAYS a byproduct when converting from one form of energy to another. Always without exception. A by-product, not the only-product.

So now you're saying it's the CPU and RAM that are 0% efficient? Why? Why is my power supply not converting 100% of the energy used into heat but my RAM and CPU are? I bet you won't be able to answer that just like you haven't been able to answer where this magical energy is coming form that actually allows CPU to you know... Process things...
~100% efficient converting electrical energy into heat, yeppy. I don't live in your universe where a 500w power supply putting out 500w to a soldering iron only has 80w of heat.

No idea what you are referring to 0% efficient to tell you the truth.
 
I just can't stand hypocrites. People that sit there and burn 25-100KW a month mining and then tell us regular folks that we should be Green and drive electric and AL Gore was right and if we are not green we are enemies of the planet and all this bullshit.
Ok, , , you feel better now?
 
~100% efficient converting electrical energy into heat, yeppy. I don't live in your universe where a 500w power supply putting out 500w to a soldering iron only has 80w of heat.

No idea what you are referring to 0% efficient to tell you the truth.

uh, you're confused

I asked why my power supply (in my PC) doesn't melt when consuming 500 watts from the wall, but a soldering iron gets red hot while consuming 80watts. And before you come back with something silly like there's a fan cooling it down, I'll go ahead and save you that argument and refer to power supplies that don't engage the fan even up to 250 watts of load. Why don't the heat sinks in those power supplies get red hot @250 watts?

The 0% efficiency is exactly what you're saying when you say all the energy a computer uses is converted into heat. That translates to 0% efficiency which means there's nothing left over for computers to actually, you know.... Work

You also failed to answer any of the inconsistencies I've presented to you in your arguments. (two of which are listed above)

This sounds like a strong case of you *think* you know what you're talking about.

Once you have an answer as to how all my CPU components are magically getting their energy to actually do what they're designed to do, I'd be very interested in hearing it... Apparently it's a big mystery now since you know... All the energy is just heat...
 
I think he is talking about the work the PC it does with the energy. The energy spent for mining 100% goes to heat. There is no return with the information crouched.
 
I think he is talking about the work the PC it does with the energy. The energy spent for mining 100% goes to heat. There is no return with the information crouched.

There’s no tangible return for us other than the heat but there’s still work being done. Get a 600 watt heater and a 600 watt computer and the heater will provide more heat because nearly all of its energy is being converted into thermal energy.
 
The heck is wrong with page 2 in this thread.

We went from OP crying about cost of cards to thermodynamics and now to space heaters vs. pc's.

That's ok though.

I'll see ya'll on the other side of $20,000 bitcoin ;)
 
uh, you're confused

I asked why my power supply (in my PC) doesn't melt when consuming 500 watts from the wall, but a soldering iron gets red hot while consuming 80watts. And before you come back with something silly like there's a fan cooling it down, I'll go ahead and save you that argument and refer to power supplies that don't engage the fan even up to 250 watts of load. Why don't the heat sinks in those power supplies get red hot @250 watts?

The 0% efficiency is exactly what you're saying when you say all the energy a computer uses is converted into heat. That translates to 0% efficiency which means there's nothing left over for computers to actually, you know.... Work

You also failed to answer any of the inconsistencies I've presented to you in your arguments. (two of which are listed above)

This sounds like a strong case of you *think* you know what you're talking about.

Once you have an answer as to how all my CPU components are magically getting their energy to actually do what they're designed to do, I'd be very interested in hearing it... Apparently it's a big mystery now since you know... All the energy is just heat...
If I am confused that is normal ;).

Your power supply is not consuming 500 watts it is converting power which it has some losses in heat. You can have megawatts of power going through a power line and it will not flash into a supernova.

Yes you are right, most of the energy put into the computer eventually turns into heat, it is almost 100% efficient for that.

If you put 1 watt in your computer it really does not store some of it over time so that it explodes in utter glory one day, boringly that 1w in comes out as 1w mostly in heat.

Of course I think I know what I am talking about, do you utter things that you don't think is true.

Your last statement is uber non-sense, when did I say all energy is just heat??? Chemical energy, potential energy as in gravity height/springs, electrical energy, mechanical energy, nuclear binding energy, Fusion energy, electromagnetic energy, heat energy -> can you name some more - there are some more for you to share. You can look up how VRMs work, power delivery etc. for a CPU - in short you supply power to a CPU and it basically a calculator that will produce heat in the end while giving some calculations in the process. Time to move on.

Anyways it is BS that one is wasting energy mining if you use the heat from your mining rigs vice a furnace to heat your place. It is basically doing the same thing except you also get a lucrative benefit from it at this time or could. In the Summer time one will have to pay for the extra cooling cost in addition to running the rigs. I plan on mining in the summer too if it is still profitable. As for the Gore lovers/worshippers, you are not saving energy, in this universe energy is not created nor destroyed from a practical point of view - just channeled, converted from one form to another.
 
Heat is always a byproduct when converting from one type of energy into another, this is why nothing is 100% efficient. that is not the same thing as EVERYTHING is 0% efficient which is what you are saying. If I drive to Vegas, some of the potential energy stored in the gasoline was used to move me and my 2 ton vehicle the 350 miles necessary to get there. Was most of it heat? yes because gas engines are horribly inefficient, computers are a whole lot more efficient. I think it's laughable that you are telling me how things work and at the same time think an internal combustion engine is MORE efficient than a computer. You seem to be under the impression that energy either needs to be used for locomotion or be wasted as heat.

I'd love for you to explain to me how my power supply doesn't turn into a molten pile of garbage when consuming 500 watts while my 80watt soldering iron gets red hot. Could it be that one device is designed to output most of the energy used as heat and the other to actually do work? I think you need to do some more googling.

Chemical energy is converted into kinetic energy to propel your vehicle, not specifically potential energy. That chemical energy is also converted into sound as well as heat.

In relation to your soldering iron vs PC comparison, I think you're confusing energy output with 'load'. A soldering iron is effectively not far off a low resistance dead short, therefore it's specifically designed to be as inefficient as possible in order to produce maximum heat output measured as temperature by applying a full load to the PSU 100% of the time. However it has to be noted that the output of the PSU is designed for the load and duration of load it is intended to withstand, if you connected your 500 watt switch mode PSU to a large enough iron, it would probably melt into a puddle due to the duration and increased load applied to it as low resistance 100% of the time - A scenario it was never designed to withstand.

Consider graphics cards, my gtx 580 used to crank out 110 degrees at full load, in such a scenario almost 95% of energy input is being converted into heat with perhaps 5% doing actual work. These days graphics card appear to be more efficient, except they aren't, we just have constantly varying clock speeds based around a chip specifically designed to throttle the GPU under instances of high heat output/load - thus we are are artifically making the GPU appear to be more efficient by varying the work done and therefore the heat output.

PC's are not efficient, almost all of the energy consumed by a PC as load is converted into heat. It's well known that without a cooling solution at all your CPU will melt into a puddle within a minute or less.

In comparison, a modern turbo F1 engine with energy reclamation systems is most likely about 40% more efficient than a PC. When. I was running two GTX 580s I used to game in shorts only my PC was pumping out so much heat.

Effectively, discussing PSU's is not an ideal way to argue energy output as a PSU will supply more power depending on the load applied to it. Essentially why a quality 100 watt amplifier at 8 ohms will put out 150 watts into 4 ohms with more heat output - It's just the load drawing more out of what is effectively a PSU biased by input current as opposed to a measure of outright efficiency. The efficiency of the amplifier (or PSU) is effectively the heat it outputs at a set load.
 
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If I am confused that is normal ;).

Your power supply is not consuming 500 watts it is converting power which it has some losses in heat. You can have megawatts of power going through a power line and it will not flash into a supernova.

Exactly my point! My question to you is, what is so special about a power supply that it can suck 500 watts from the wall and not waste all of it as heat, but CPU and memory chips, by your explanation, do convert 100% of the energy into heat? You say they aren't doing work because they aren't moving? What about the power supply? It's not moving, is it not doing work either?
 
Exactly my point! My question to you is, what is so special about a power supply that it can suck 500 watts from the wall and not waste all of it as heat, but CPU and memory chips, by your explanation, do convert 100% of the energy into heat? You say they aren't doing work because they aren't moving? What about the power supply? It's not moving, is it not doing work either?


Because it converts the electrical energy coming in from the wall into magnetic energy that's absorbed by the secondary coils which converts it back into electrical energy with the characteristics suitable for use by electronics. Some of that electrical and magnetic energy is absorbed by the materials (i.e. resistance and inductance) they're running through, which increases those materials molecular kinetic energy (i.e. thermal energy) and released as heat instead. But 85-90% of the energy coming in goes back out.

A CPU on the other hand is not designed to convert energy. Is it essentially a resistive load that converts most of the electrical energy coming in into heat (some goes back out for signals used by other components, some gets converted into EM radiation).

In either case, there is no work being done by or on the systems.
 
Because it converts the electrical energy coming in from the wall into magnetic energy that's absorbed by the secondary coils which converts it back into electrical energy with the characteristics suitable for use by electronics. Some of that electrical and magnetic energy is absorbed by the materials (i.e. resistance and inductance) they're running through, which increases those materials molecular kinetic energy (i.e. thermal energy) and released as heat instead. But 85-90% of the energy coming in goes back out.

A CPU on the other hand is not designed to convert energy. Is it essentially a resistive load that converts most of the electrical energy coming in into heat (some goes back out for signals used by other components, some gets converted into EM radiation).

In either case, there is no work being done by or on the systems.

When you loaded this page, did work not have to be done to calculate all the ones and zeros necessary to give you the image you're looking at right now?
 
No, Physics.

That's not an answer. Work has to abide by laws of physics too.

What is going on inside the CPU to allow me to post this and allow you to read it? When you see the CPU load go up in task manager, is the CPU not working? In other words, using some of the energy that's going into it to process what it needs to process so it can do what it's designed to do?
 
what! :LOL: I think you made my night/morning here.

I think its funny that you and I are having a completely rediculous exchange (actually funny for a change) while these folks are arguing about physics at the same time lol... and another set of people are discussing something different all in the same thread ha ha
 
Exactly my point! My question to you is, what is so special about a power supply that it can suck 500 watts from the wall and not waste all of it as heat, but CPU and memory chips, by your explanation, do convert 100% of the energy into heat? You say they aren't doing work because they aren't moving? What about the power supply? It's not moving, is it not doing work either?

It's a switchmode power supply, making it slightly more efficient. In the case of a switchmode power supply, it becomes less efficient in cases of low load as energy is lost as heat due to it's 'switching' nature, hence the reason the PSU has a fan and heat exhausts out the rear of the unit. Once load increases, energy is still lost as heat, but more energy is lost via the PC itself. A linear power supply is hugely inefficient, dropping voltage from 120/240v to 12v has to have that energy being converted into something - That something is heat.

Almost all of the energy that makes it's way into a PC is lost as heat.
 
That's not an answer. Work has to abide by laws of physics too.

What is going on inside the CPU to allow me to post this and allow you to read it? When you see the CPU load go up in task manager, is the CPU not working? In other words, using some of the energy that's going into it to process what it needs to process so it can do what it's designed to do?

Their answers are correct. Do not confuse your idea of "work" with the definition used in physics' energy relations. As far as physics is concerned there is no work being done in a CPU. With the exception of a very small amount of energy radiated in different spectra, all the power consumed in a CPU is given off as heat. There is nothing being lifted (potential energy) accelerated (kinetic) molecules being adjusted in some way (chemical), etc.

As for why a 500w power supply does not melt solder like a soldering iron, think of heat sinks. Why do people consider copper a great material for heat pipes / heat sinks? Why do big cooling towers perform better than small ones, all other factors being equal?

Radiated energy is a function of the emissitivity of the material, and the surface area. You have a given amount of energy, and it needs to go somewhere or the energy stays, and temperatures go up (excited molecules).
If you put the energy into something with a high emissitivity, the temperatures will be lower, as the material will radiate the heat energy away. Similarly, when you apply that same energy over a larger surface area, the temperature is lower as well.

A soldering iron is specifically designed to not do the above, and instead generate heat focused on the solder tip. The power is put into something which does not readily radiate heat, and it is done in a small surface area. Your PSU has the opposite design constraints.
 
This is a fun topic for some reason, anyways looks like AMD competition (Nvidia) is able to hold the prices down better as well as keep the supply up. Meaning one can buy what is available if reasonable. Frankly I think RTG is doing very poorly in supplying Polaris quantities that are needed for the market little alone Vega's. Polaris I see no reason RTG can't keep up, Pascal cards right now are the better mining cards as well. Kinda sad as well.
 
I have over 20 rigs mining. I wouldnt buy in now. Buy in when its not as profitable. You will save a TON of money.
 
gg ppl should own these cards and use for what they are ment for playing games :D it's sort of stupid and pointless if it havent been for how economy works really. while i have thougt about it, but most coins are so far ahead now. harder to make a good coin of it. but really so much wasted potential and electricity.
 
I just can't stand hypocrites. People that sit there and burn 25-100KW a month mining and then tell us regular folks that we should be Green and drive electric and AL Gore was right and if we are not green we are enemies of the planet and all this bullshit.

You do have a valid point. Ive been mining for years and it bothers me, i mean i also drive a chevy volt. With that said, I do heat my home with these miners. the worst people, are the ones using electric space heaters or electric blankets. Thats not only bad for the environment but bad for your wallet too. At my place of employment there is probably about 60 of them space heaters under desks
 
gg ppl should own these cards and use for what they are ment for playing games :D it's sort of stupid and pointless if it havent been for how economy works really. while i have thougt about it, but most coins are so far ahead now. harder to make a good coin of it. but really so much wasted potential and electricity.

Yes, but there is this new MMO where you earn digital coins and trade them on the market for huge profits or losses. Way more fun than any game ive played in years.
 
You do have a valid point. Ive been mining for years and it bothers me, i mean i also drive a chevy volt. With that said, I do heat my home with these miners. the worst people, are the ones using electric space heaters or electric blankets. Thats not only bad for the environment but bad for your wallet too. At my place of employment there is probably about 60 of them space heaters under desks

Well if it bothers you tell them to raise the temperature 5 degrees and watch the power bill shrink as everyone turns off the heaters lol, or just make a rule saying no heaters
 
Well if it bothers you tell them to raise the temperature 5 degrees and watch the power bill shrink as everyone turns off the heaters lol, or just make a rule saying no heaters


Well to me its more along the way of .... the amount of natural resources we could save per annum and extend our available resources even longer if people were just a little more conscious of how they utilize our finite energy resources. For instance I have changed every single light bulb literally in my home with LED. I have ZERO incandescent and fluorescent anywhere. Even outside my home. Now while my individual savings have nil impact if ten million others did a change like that we could save a gargantuan amount of energy, thus less coal is burned, less oil is consumed, less nuclear waste is produced. Etc...

I have toyed with the idea of buying a fast high horsepower Tesla but I do not think the tech is quite where I am wanting it to be as of right now.

The truth is I am a libertarian and have many conservative principles but I am also green, just not retarded about it like these leftist hippie children are. They, like almost all of their ideas( I said almost here as in not everyone), are borderline insanity and plain unrealistic.

I believe in climate change, because climates change, just not man caused global warming like its been rammed down our throats and I am university educated just like any other, I just never bought into the "Consensus" which as a scientist myself (Biologist) am appalled by the combination of the words science and consensus. But I digress because I am on a wild tangent now.
 
Because it converts the electrical energy coming in from the wall into magnetic energy that's absorbed by the secondary coils which converts it back into electrical energy with the characteristics suitable for use by electronics. Some of that electrical and magnetic energy is absorbed by the materials (i.e. resistance and inductance) they're running through, which increases those materials molecular kinetic energy (i.e. thermal energy) and released as heat instead. But 85-90% of the energy coming in goes back out.

A CPU on the other hand is not designed to convert energy. Is it essentially a resistive load that converts most of the electrical energy coming in into heat (some goes back out for signals used by other components, some gets converted into EM radiation).

In either case, there is no work being done by or on the systems.

Switching power supplies do not use two coils.

The only place I've seen two coils anymore is a step up or step down for AC power. I haven't seen two coil for AC to DC in forever.
 
Well to me its more along the way of .... the amount of natural resources we could save per annum and extend our available resources even longer if people were just a little more conscious of how they utilize our finite energy resources. For instance I have changed every single light bulb literally in my home with LED. I have ZERO incandescent and fluorescent anywhere. Even outside my home. Now while my individual savings have nil impact if ten million others did a change like that we could save a gargantuan amount of energy, thus less coal is burned, less oil is consumed, less nuclear waste is produced. Etc...

I have toyed with the idea of buying a fast high horsepower Tesla but I do not think the tech is quite where I am wanting it to be as of right now.

The truth is I am a libertarian and have many conservative principles but I am also green, just not retarded about it like these leftist hippie children are. They, like almost all of their ideas( I said almost here as in not everyone), are borderline insanity and plain unrealistic.

I believe in climate change, because climates change, just not man caused global warming like its been rammed down our throats and I am university educated just like any other, I just never bought into the "Consensus" which as a scientist myself (Biologist) am appalled by the combination of the words science and consensus. But I digress because I am on a wild tangent now.

You kinda sound like the guy who thinks they did the world a solid by changing every bulb to an LED one meanwhile are running a 24hr dedicated mining rig and justifying it by the bulb change. I hope I'm wrong about that.
 
You kinda sound like the guy who thinks they did the world a solid by changing every bulb to an LED one meanwhile are running a 24hr dedicated mining rig and justifying it by the bulb change. I hope I'm wrong about that.

Apparently you dont read much or fail at comprehension. Led bulbs are but one attempt at saving energy and resources. There are many more I do that doesnt concern any need to share here.

I dont have a mining rig. Its an absolutely idiotic waste of time and energy and money. Bitcoin is about to completely burst and A LOT of people are about to be hundreds of thousands if not millions in debt and lots of suicides are going to happen. Etherium is gonna follow as well. Virtual currency is nit real. Govt. Fiat is not real. Ag Au Pt etc... are real and we must return to a standard of currency thats backed.
 
Apparently you dont read much or fail at comprehension. Led bulbs are but one attempt at saving energy and resources. There are many more I do that doesnt concern any need to share here.

I dont have a mining rig. Its an absolutely idiotic waste of time and energy and money. Bitcoin is about to completely burst and A LOT of people are about to be hundreds of thousands if not millions in debt and lots of suicides are going to happen. Etherium is gonna follow as well. Virtual currency is nit real. Govt. Fiat is not real. Ag Au Pt etc... are real and we must return to a standard of currency thats backed.

Good, I'm glad you are trying to help out. Don't agree with going back to the gold standard though. I also don't believe a crypto correction is going to be that bad. Most people probably aren't betting their homes on it.
 
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