the Truth about the GPU / CPU Shortage finally explained

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HAL_404

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What's the real reason(s) for the GPU/CPU shortage?

nice video, he covers a lot of different areas. Enjoy ...

 

ZodaEX

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I'm out of data for the month. What did he say the actual real reason for the shortages is?
 

GiGaBiTe

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It's a typical long and rambly LTT video, but the point Linus was making is that due to covid, more people than expected bought everything up, straining supply. It's also predicted to run into 2023 at this rate.
 

Aireoth

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Everyone has been saying high demand except for a few wanting to blame covid.

The arguements have all been where has the demand come from, traditional consumers or cryptominers. The answer is both, but cryptominers have more purchasing power than the average consumer as they directly generate revenue from the product.
 

Dan_D

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Everyone has been saying high demand except for a few wanting to blame covid.

The arguements have all been where has the demand come from, traditional consumers or cryptominers. The answer is both, but cryptominers have more purchasing power than the average consumer as they directly generate revenue from the product.

In truth, it's a combination of factors. The demand is higher due to COVID-19 and cryptomining, but COVID-19 has created issues with supply chains. Big game releases like Cyberpunk 2077 put even further demand for computer related products. In situations like this, you can rarely point to a single thing as the cause for shortages. It's usually more complex than that. The current state of the firearms industry is a fine example of that. There was panic buying due to the COVID-19 lockdowns but then things got worse with the rioting, safety concerns over all this "defund" the police nonsense and of course, the current political climate.

To put it simply, getting a hold of an RTX 3090 is far easier than getting ahold of certain firearms and accessories right now.
 

Aireoth

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In truth, it's a combination of factors. The demand is higher due to COVID-19 and cryptomining, but COVID-19 has created issues with supply chains. Big game releases like Cyberpunk 2077 put even further demand for computer related products. In situations like this, you can rarely point to a single thing as the cause for shortages. It's usually more complex than that. The current state of the firearms industry is a fine example of that. There was panic buying due to the COVID-19 lockdowns but then things got worse with the rioting, safety concerns over all this "defund" the police nonsense and of course, the current political climate.

To put it simply, getting a hold of an RTX 3090 is far easier than getting ahold of certain firearms and accessories right now.

Everything is always a combination, but the supply chain issue is (imo) minor compared to the demand issue. You can see it in every industry with demand, lumber, firearms, computer parts, home entertainment solutions, workout equipment, etc.

My new free weights cost about 40% more than when I bought my last set two years ago, I was talking to the guy at the store and he was amazed by the demand they have seen, same with my local computer retailer.
 

next-Jin

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To put it simply, getting a hold of an RTX 3090 is far easier than getting ahold of certain firearms and accessories right now.

This.

If you compare it in percentages ammo itself is way more now they video cards being scalped imo, and yes trying to find certain weapons is almost impossible not to mention their drastically higher prices.

The only saving grace is that a firearm bought today will be just as good in 10 years as it was when you bought it. A 3090 might be in the trash by then.
 

TheBuzzer

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As a programmer, I know for sure I can fix the problem with scrapers. But the problem is the sellers doesn't care for having a feature like this because a scraper will still buy the graphics card and pay for it.
 

GoodBoy

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It's a typical long and rambly LTT video, but the point Linus was making is that due to covid, more people than expected bought everything up, straining supply. It's also predicted to run into 2023 at this rate.
So nothing we didn't already know. So glad I didn't sit thru that one.
 

harmattan

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My new free weights cost about 40% more than when I bought my last set two years ago, I was talking to the guy at the store and he was amazed by the demand they have seen, same with my local computer retailer.
Gym equipment has been in similar situation to GPUs/CPUs in that everyone working remotely wants home gyms since they can't go to their commercial gyms (or are rightfully avoiding them). I luckily got most of my equipment before things got ludicrous, but still paid close to 2019 MSRP for used stuff. I was looking for kettle bells and a few more plates yesterday to round out my collection and holy shit they are absurdly expensive.

Fortunately, unlike chips, gym equipment is not a high-tech item that takes years to scale up production. And like with chips, prices will come down once folks start going back to the office -- there'll be a deluge of deals in the used space, I'm sure.
 

Derangel

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Thank you Captain Obvious, everything he said in that video has been known here for months, and without big shot off the record conversations.
Something to keep in mind is that videos like this aren't for us; they're for his more general audience. The type of people that are not reading forums and keeping up on how things are going. LTT is a much more "casual" audience focused channel.
 

Eshelmen

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High demand.

Could have been a 12 second video explaining to people what they already know.
I find it difficult to believe there's THAT much demand for pc gaming out of the blue.

Yes, I get it, covid made a lot of people stay at home. But wouldn't the production rate have increased to match the demand by now? It's been almost a year since preorders started on the 3xxx series. And that's just Nvidia, not Intel, AMD, PS5 or Xbox products either. All of them having stock issues with extreme inflated prices.

How do we expect to get out of this rut if all we get an excuse for is "high demand"?
What's the plan here, to just sit it out and wait for the next series of products to be in "high demand" as well? Is this how it's going to be from now on?

While I would love to buy a 3080, the facts are this, as a normal consumer like myself, I'm willing to bet that the majority of us who'd absolutely bite on the original MSRP are not doing so because of the 2 to 4 times pricing increase. This in of itself takes away a huge chunk from the "demand" every one talks about.
 
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Lumpus

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Finally was able to get a 5900X last week! I had been working at home nearly full-time since even before COVID and had been trying to upgrade from my 2700X since before Christmas.
Fortunately, I'm quite happy with my current 5700XT gpu, and the way prices have gotten silly I'm glad to be skipping this generation.
 

Derangel

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I find it difficult to believe there's THAT much demand for pc gaming out of the blue.

Yes, I get it, covid made a lot of people stay at home. But wouldn't the production rate have increased to match the demand by now? It's been almost a year since preorders started on the 3xxx series. And that's just Nvidia, not Intel, AMD, PS5 or Xbox products either. All of them having stock issues with extreme inflated prices.

How do we expect to get out of this rut if all we get an excuse for is "high demand"?
What's the plan here, to just sit it out and wait for the next series of products to be in "high demand" as well? Is this how it's going to be from now on?

While I would love to buy a 3080, the facts are this, as a normal consumer like myself, I'm willing to bet that the majority of us who'd absolutely bite on the original MSRP are not doing so because of the 2 to 4 times pricing increase. This in of itself takes away a huge chunk from the "demand" every one talks about.

Hard to increase production when there aren't open lines to do so. Pretty sure Samsung's fabs are just as full as TSMCs. EVERYONE is struggling to get chips right now, no one has any open space. Bringing new fabs on line takes years, not months. On top of that, there are delays getting the raw materials needed to even manufacture chips. Then you add massively increased demand from basically all consumer sectors that rely on microchips and well.....
 

Axman

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Then you add massively increased demand from basically all consumer sectors that rely on microchips and well.....

Seriously, even if launch windows and all the other stuff wasn't an issue, you have essentially every single household and business in the whole world buying at least one more PC/laptop/tablet, with many of them needing stacks of newly supplied machines.

If someone finds a genie in a bottle and wishes away crypto mining there'd still be huge supply problems. You could wish away any of the other single factors and not make a difference.
 

Verge

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I find it difficult to believe there's THAT much demand for pc gaming out of the blue.

Yes, I get it, covid made a lot of people stay at home. But wouldn't the production rate have increased to match the demand by now?
That's just it, people made alot of rash decisions to cut back production, and demand really didn't disappear like they thought it would. Why the auto industry is getting killed. Fab space is sold months in advance.

Also if you just look around and take note of the prices and activities of americans you can see that demand is probably significantly higher than in 2019. Everything is in high demand. People are buying computer mined coins based off a meme, people are spending millions on useless NFTs. Home prices, food, auto prices. My Subaru trade in value has increased 4,000 dollars in the last 12 months. WTF, i daily drive it. It's lunacy out there, and very typical of a government injecting 5+ trillion dollars in the economy. That's more than Japan's entire GDP. So demand is probably extreme right now.
 

ZodaEX

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That's just it, people made alot of rash decisions to cut back production, and demand really didn't disappear like they thought it would. Why the auto industry is getting killed. Fab space is sold months in advance.

Also if you just look around and take note of the prices and activities of americans you can see that demand is probably significantly higher than in 2019. Everything is in high demand. People are buying computer mined coins based off a meme, people are spending millions on useless NFTs. Home prices, food, auto prices. My Subaru trade in value has increased 4,000 dollars in the last 12 months. WTF, i daily drive it. It's lunacy out there, and very typical of a government injecting 5+ trillion dollars in the economy. That's more than Japan's entire GDP. So demand is probably extreme right now.
Link the Meme please, I haven't seen it yet.
 

lilfiend

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Link the Meme please, I haven't seen it yet.
I believe he is talking about dogecoin

1619423304867.png
 

BB Gun

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Expect it to continue through 2022.... No new builds until 2023 it looks like.....

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36218381/car-models-affected-chip-shortage/

Exactly how long this situation will last is up in the air, but it appears like there's darkness on the horizon. Taiwan, where many semiconductors are made, is suffering through a water shortage because no typhoons hit the island last year (which means aquifers are low) and rainfall for the first three months of 2021 was roughly half of the normal rate. Given this situation and many issues, the South China Morning Post reported this week that the chip shortage could last until 2022.
 

DukenukemX

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Expect it to continue through 2022.... No new builds until 2023 it looks like.....

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36218381/car-models-affected-chip-shortage/
As long as nothing in my PC craps out on me, I don't care. Even if it does I have enough spare PC's that it won't really matter much. I could easily play games like Final Fantasy 6 on a SNES emulator, because I've never played that game, or replay Hollow Knight, because good games deserve another go. I'd rather play those games over Cyberpunk 2077 right now, because I know those games are good and not buggy. We're so concerned with FOMO that nobody considers if these new games are even worth the hassle to buy this expensive hardware. So many awesome games that I would rather replay again then to deal with the mess that modern games have. Mass Effect 1,2,3, Borderlands 2, Dead Space 1&2, Fallout New Vegas, Rayman Legends, Sonic Mania, and fucking Skyrim with mods. You can play all these games on a Core2Duo with an old ass graphics card from the 2000's.

Then there are emulators which you should definitely use to play legendary games, like all the Castlevania games, Earthworm Jim, Earthbound, Zelda Link to the Past, All the MegaMan X games, Secret of Mana, Super Metroid, Sonic 1,2,3 and Sonic CD. You can play all those legendary games on a computer from the late 90's. Play Castlevania Symphony of the Night because that game was awesome. Zelda Ocarina of Time, and Majora's Mask are another good two choices. If you got a computer from the 2000's era you can also play GameCube and Wii games like Metroid Prime 1,2,3, Wind Waker, and Twilight Princess. PS2 games like God of War 1&2, Final Fantasy X, and Shadow of the Colossus.

Truly good games don't age and I doubt most people have even touched half of the games I've listed. Don't give me that graphics nonsense if you enjoy playing games on phones with a touch screen. Go play these legendary games while the games industry figures out how to deal with this problem. The only game worth playing in 2020 was Doom Eternal. Maybe Half Life Alyx but if you're playing that game then graphic card prices aren't a problem for you.
 

T4rd

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As long as nothing in my PC craps out on me, I don't care. Even if it does I have enough spare PC's that it won't really matter much. I could easily play games like Final Fantasy 6 on a SNES emulator, because I've never played that game, or replay Hollow Knight, because good games deserve another go. I'd rather play those games over Cyberpunk 2077 right now, because I know those games are good and not buggy. We're so concerned with FOMO that nobody considers if these new games are even worth the hassle to buy this expensive hardware. So many awesome games that I would rather replay again then to deal with the mess that modern games have. Mass Effect 1,2,3, Borderlands 2, Dead Space 1&2, Fallout New Vegas, Rayman Legends, Sonic Mania, and fucking Skyrim with mods. You can play all these games on a Core2Duo with an old ass graphics card from the 2000's.

Then there are emulators which you should definitely use to play legendary games, like all the Castlevania games, Earthworm Jim, Earthbound, Zelda Link to the Past, All the MegaMan X games, Secret of Mana, Super Metroid, Sonic 1,2,3 and Sonic CD. You can play all those legendary games on a computer from the late 90's. Play Castlevania Symphony of the Night because that game was awesome. Zelda Ocarina of Time, and Majora's Mask are another good two choices. If you got a computer from the 2000's era you can also play GameCube and Wii games like Metroid Prime 1,2,3, Wind Waker, and Twilight Princess. PS2 games like God of War 1&2, Final Fantasy X, and Shadow of the Colossus.

Truly good games don't age and I doubt most people have even touched half of the games I've listed. Don't give me that graphics nonsense if you enjoy playing games on phones with a touch screen. Go play these legendary games while the games industry figures out how to deal with this problem. The only game worth playing in 2020 was Doom Eternal. Maybe Half Life Alyx but if you're playing that game then graphic card prices aren't a problem for you.

One of the few posts I've agreed with you on. The past year has been the best time every to work on your near-bottomless backlog of games. I've dipped into many games on Steam I got in bundle sales years ago and many of the PS+ games I've got over the years as well.

I know the Turing GPUs were mostly a flop, but glad I at least got a 2080 that can still play games great until I can replace it with something I don't have to hire a bot for or spend most of my time hovering over in-stock notification channels. I'm definitely not desperate enough for a GPU to waste that much time trying to buy one, esp. for any amount over MSRP.
 
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That's just it, people made alot of rash decisions to cut back production, and demand really didn't disappear like they thought it would. Why the auto industry is getting killed. Fab space is sold months in advance.

Also if you just look around and take note of the prices and activities of americans you can see that demand is probably significantly higher than in 2019. Everything is in high demand. People are buying computer mined coins based off a meme, people are spending millions on useless NFTs. Home prices, food, auto prices. My Subaru trade in value has increased 4,000 dollars in the last 12 months. WTF, i daily drive it. It's lunacy out there, and very typical of a government injecting 5+ trillion dollars in the economy. That's more than Japan's entire GDP. So demand is probably extreme right now.


Like I warned on here last summer Inflation is going to get alot worse on all things. Todays prices will seem cheap next year on all things especially anything with protein in it(nvm silicon),compared to todays insanity.
 

Krenum

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Like I warned on here last summer Inflation is going to get alot worse on all things. Todays prices will seem cheap next year on all things especially anything with protein in it(nvm silicon),compared to todays insanity.
Sounds good!

High priced computer hardare is a good deterent to prevent me from spending money. I haven't spent a dime of the government cheese money given out.
 

harmattan

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Like I warned on here last summer Inflation is going to get alot worse on all things. Todays prices will seem cheap next year on all things especially anything with protein in it(nvm silicon),compared to todays insanity.
No doubt, I was trying to get this point across last summer as well and got blow back -- and I hate to be proven right here. It's already happening for most things, even those not impacted by supply. You don't print free money for hand outs and expect inflation to not happen.
 
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No doubt, I was trying to get this point across last summer as well and got blow back -- and I hate to be proven right here. It's already happening for most things, even those not impacted by supply. You don't print free money for hand outs and expect inflation to not happen.


I know,as there were only a handful of us doing the warning,and I remember your comments.
 

Verge

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Like I warned on here last summer Inflation is going to get alot worse on all things. Todays prices will seem cheap next year on all things especially anything with protein in it(nvm silicon),compared to todays insanity.
Sadly, i think i agree. This is what happens when you print money indiscriminately.
 

buttons

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It just feels like a perfect storm. Record number of people wanting to get into PC gaming. launch of ps5 / xbox, launch of actual real upgrade gpus and cpus. I really wonder how many bar tab dollars have turned into pc gaming dollars.
 
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Bankie

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I find it difficult to believe there's THAT much demand for pc gaming out of the blue.

Yes, I get it, covid made a lot of people stay at home. But wouldn't the production rate have increased to match the demand by now? It's been almost a year since preorders started on the 3xxx series. And that's just Nvidia, not Intel, AMD, PS5 or Xbox products either. All of them having stock issues with extreme inflated prices.
Increased demand and people having 'free money' is affecting almost everything. I can't even buy a new kayak in the Cincinnati area even though it's not exactly prime waterway country; the boutique shops now have a waiting list 100+ orders deep. It's the same with bicycles.
 

harmattan

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Increased demand and people having 'free money' is affecting almost everything. I can't even buy a new kayak in the Cincinnati area even though it's not exactly prime waterway country; the boutique shops now have a waiting list 100+ orders deep. It's the same with bicycles.
Somewhat off topic, but I bought a river-side house (in the UK) a few months back with the intent of kayaking. At this rate, we may be able to find one by Summer 2023 for 150% of what it was selling last year. The most I can do right now is sit on the dock and imagine paddling. I know kayaks are a highly sought after consumer good where demand is a by-product of the pandemic, but everything is being pulled upwards in price -- and we're only at the start.

I don't have the answer here, it's either mass inflation caused by stimulus e.g. dolling out free money, or depression and job losses if nothing is done. It seems like US, UK and EU has gone with the former approach. A New Deal-approach could work (slowing inflation in lieu of accelerating it), but I feel there's too much resentment and selfishness going around for it to pick up steam.

PC components, however are in a perfect storm: mining, more people wanting to game, increased demand in consumer products that need chips, ever-increasing cloud processing requirements...
 
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