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Supercomputers Help Scientists Improve Seismic Forecasts for California

DooKey

DooKey

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Researchers have used the Stampede1 and 2 supercomputers to complete one of the world's largest earthquake simulation models: The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). The simulations showed that in the week following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 quake in California would be up to 300 times greater than the week before. The impact of such an improved model goes beyond the fundamental scientific improvement it represents. It has the potential to impact building codes, insurance rates, and the state's response to a powerful earthquake. In the long run this should help save lives and property and anything that can do that gets my seal of approval.

Among its novel findings, the researchers' simulations showed that in the week following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 quake would be up to 300 times greater than the week beforehand. This scenario of 'cascading' ruptures was demonstrated in the 2002 magnitude 7.9 Denali, Alaska, and the 2016 magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquakes, according to David Jacobson and Ross Stein of Temblor.
 
I have to say they missed the ball on this one. Should have been "Likely Uniform California Earthquake Forecast of Ruptures" (LUCEFR3).

Imagine the news lines.

"In other news, the USGS has announced that LUCEFR3 has predicted a >50% chance of multiple 7.0 or greater earthquakes to strike the greater Los Angels area in the next 3 months. Next up, KiKi the surfing tortoise, over to you Amanda."

People wouldn't know when to start looting.

In all seriousness, this is pretty cool. The cascade sensing function between faults and being able to feed it natural event data seems like a big step forward in this field. The number of reps they run is a huge jump.
 
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