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- Joined
- Dec 19, 2005
- Messages
- 17,421
"Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true
nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
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"The problem: $18 billion won’t last long, given the escalation in the AI spend, not just on capex, but operating expenses and R&D. It’s clear from the S-1 that the free cash flow from the rest of the company can fund just a piddling portion of what’s needed. By Fortune‘s estimate, the rest of SpaceX outside of AI last year generated just $1 billion free cash flow that could potentially support what Musk sees as its principal engine. The prospectus also talks about floating more shares and issuing debt to keep data center build rushing forward. But those moves will cost shareholders in dilution and rising interest expense.
Perhaps the most important statement in the entire, roughly 400 page document comes on page 53, where SpaceX details the immense expense and long timeline needed to mine the super-rich AI lode. The prospectus states, “We expect to allocate substantial capital to expand our compute infrastructure, and we expect a multi-year investment horizon before these deployments translate into sustained positive AI Segment Adjusted EBITDA. During this investment period, our capital expenditures will scale as quickly.” Keep in mind that’s “scaling up” from capex that in Q1 alone, reached a towering $7.7 billion.
The effusive document also reveals how heavily SpaceX is leaning on its new AI arm to achieve the explosive growth in revenues and profits needed to reward investors buying in at a $1. 5 trillion valuation. Page 11 displays one of the S-1 chief set-pieces, a chart showing the total addressable markets for each of its three segments. SpaceX projects its total TAM at a staggering $28.5 trillion. The corker: Of that total, AI accounts for $26.5 trillion or 93%. As Trainer writes, “Large TAMs provide strong growth potential. They also invite competition.” SpaceX is moving from relying on a satellite business it dominates to a field that’s lured a pantheon of the world’s most successful enterprises, from Microsoft to Google. The pie will expand fast, but sundry rivals will be vying for the pieces––a scenario that’s sure to pressure prices and margins.
Trainer’s a master of using discount models to forecast how much companies must earn in the future to justify huge market caps today. His analysis posits that to deliver decent returns to shareholders at a $1.5 trillion valuation, SpaceX would need to be booking $189 billion in annual profits by 2035. At $1.75 trillion, the bogey rises to $245 billion. For 2025, no U.S. company came close to even the lower number. As Trainer avows, Musk is counting on “Out of this World Profits” to ring the bell. And keep in mind, SpaceX is debuting as an enterprise that’s in the red.
If investors should focus on one item in the S-1, it’s not the gauzy stuff about solar powered data centers in orbit, but Musk’s frank admission that making money in AI will cost a ton and take a long time. Folks and funds may be right to back him. But though the spirits over the most eagerly awaited IPO are super-high, the risks are just as big."
https://fortune.com/2026/05/23/what-business-is-space-x-in-ipo-filing-stock/
View: https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI
