So ARM is doing what Nvidia couldn't

[DukenukemX]

Well they’ve already done it several times and they aren’t any smaller. Just like nvidia has raised prices on all their cards and people still buying.

Apple and Nvidia both have something in common, and that's waiting for their ticking time bomb to go off. Not a matter of if but when. Also Nvidia has technically lost sales, just that everyone is crazy over their AI hype.

Customers don’t appear to be nearly as fickle as you might imagine.

Probably because customers are going to defend buying a $1,000+ product that they don't want to admit isn't as good as they thought. Kinda why fanboys exist, to defend their purchases.

Apple has been a developer and designer of ARM since 2001 and owns a crapload of patents there that it actually licenses back to ARM.

Seriously, and everyone thought it would be a good idea to jump on ARM?

If ARM wants to pick that fight they are welcome to but it would be a death sentence.

Aren't they technically already dead? The idea here is that ARM wants to come back from it.

It’s more likely that ARM and Apple are tag teaming Qualcomm,

Why would ARM tag team with Apple who pays them the least amount per sale of ARM devices? If anything ARM would go after both for bigger profits, and Mediatek too.

What changed for the customers though? Better battery life, faster performance, lower temperatures better interoperability between Mac and iOS?

1. Battery life is questionable as long as you stay within their optimizations.
2. Faster performance if you ignore benchmarks.
3. Temps for Apple do indeed reach 95C and will throttle.
4. Who cares about Mac and iOS having similarities?

Customers saw no difference,

Except for the loss of 32-bit applications and taking a dump on Windows application compatibility and performance.

On the customer side the transition was basically seamless.

That's why all of them still have a PC laying around. It's one of the reasons why people still use a PC, because your old applications still work. It's also why people used Windows XP for a very long time. Microsoft has tried to go ARM but never got anywhere with it, for this reason. Microsoft also tried to lock people out of side loading when they initially released Windows on ARM, which only adds to one of the reasons why ARM was never adopted on Windows.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx3oq1BGokqOdri8KsaDdjGIwYKYgPDM9p

 

[atp1916]

I woudn't mind a new Surface RT variant to prove out this sinful behaviour, if anything for the laughs and xXchan mockery.

 

[1337Goat]

What we're looking for here is something to replace x86 permanently, in a way that people like us, enthusiasts, actually feel excited to do. Yes, I'm talking about the sort of computational excellence that allows your normal mouse/keyboard operating system to play games and launch applications at literally 10X the speed of what is now possible, at a fraction of the power. And let me repeat: Play games.


There's nothing stopping us from running a focused RISCV CPU or ARM CPU in our computer, one with a chipset or other subsystem that unlocks the sorts of functionalities that make x86 glorious, and why would I not WANT this? This would grant me more power in terms of gaming and the typical applications I use, which would include things that require the CPU, which could be named on one hand: Video editing, 3D rendering, large images, ML, and gaming. It's not like our browser is really a CPU sink in this day and age.


When the transition happens, it will be on a hardware level, where a simple x86 CPU is installed into each motherboard as a functional bridge to ARM or RISCV, but with that x86 CPU much smaller and more focused, with the real activity taking place on the ARM or RISC CPU that you buy separate and install. The one that's so powerful, that it will have multiple cores, and run at incredibly high speeds. This is on the level of Year 2030, which is about 6 years away. We're not going to need to run the x86 forever, and when the day comes that a superior performant RISCV or even RISCVI comes out, then what are you going to do? What are you going to do when RISCV is actually the option that offers superior performance in all areas? If the technology develops, then we are in for a wild ride, especially when dealing with ML-aided processor design.

It can be risky, but that's just how it can be with RISCV.

 

[WilyKit]

Apple and Nvidia both have something in common, and that's waiting for their ticking time bomb to go off. Not a matter of if but when. Also Nvidia has technically lost sales, just that everyone is crazy over their AI hype.

Probably because customers are going to defend buying a $1,000+ product that they don't want to admit isn't as good as they thought. Kinda why fanboys exist, to defend their purchases.

Seriously, and everyone thought it would be a good idea to jump on ARM?

Aren't they technically already dead? The idea here is that ARM wants to come back from it.

Why would ARM tag team with Apple who pays them the least amount per sale of ARM devices? If anything ARM would go after both for bigger profits, and Mediatek too.

1. Battery life is questionable as long as you stay within their optimizations.
2. Faster performance if you ignore benchmarks.
3. Temps for Apple do indeed reach 95C and will throttle.
4. Who cares about Mac and iOS having similarities?

Except for the loss of 32-bit applications and taking a dump on Windows application compatibility and performance.

That's why all of them still have a PC laying around. It's one of the reasons why people still use a PC, because your old applications still work. It's also why people used Windows XP for a very long time. Microsoft has tried to go ARM but never got anywhere with it, for this reason. Microsoft also tried to lock people out of side loading when they initially released Windows on ARM, which only adds to one of the reasons why ARM was never adopted on Windows.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx3oq1BGokqOdri8KsaDdjGIwYKYgPDM9p

Asking the same questions in multi quote format will give you the same answers. Scroll up. I mean, as far as Apple amd nvidia are concerned, their profits are Doing the exact opposite is your prediction so your entire Argument is based on something that not only doesn’t exist, but trending in the opposite direction of where it needs to trend for you to be anywhere near accurate in your remarks

 

[DukenukemX]

There's nothing stopping us from running a focused RISCV CPU or ARM CPU in our computer, one with a chipset or other subsystem that unlocks the sorts of functionalities that make x86 glorious, and why would I not WANT this? This would grant me more power in terms of gaming and the typical applications I use, which would include things that require the CPU, which could be named on one hand: Video editing, 3D rendering, large images, ML, and gaming. It's not like our browser is really a CPU sink in this day and age.

RISCV or ARM don't have the legacy baggage that x86 does, which grants most systems with these CPU's the freedom to do whatever you want with the device. Microsoft and Apple could push for a completely locked down system like iOS has for Windows and Mac OSX but that legacy open nature is what slows them down.

When the transition happens, it will be on a hardware level, where a simple x86 CPU is installed into each motherboard as a functional bridge to ARM or RISCV, but with that x86 CPU much smaller and more focused, with the real activity taking place on the ARM or RISC CPU that you buy separate and install. The one that's so powerful, that it will have multiple cores, and run at incredibly high speeds. This is on the level of Year 2030, which is about 6 years away. We're not going to need to run the x86 forever, and when the day comes that a superior performant RISCV or even RISCVI comes out, then what are you going to do? What are you going to do when RISCV is actually the option that offers superior performance in all areas? If the technology develops, then we are in for a wild ride, especially when dealing with ML-aided processor design.

It can be risky, but that's just how it can be with RISCV.

RISC-V is not going to achieve the same level of adoption as x86 and ARM, simply because it needs a lot of R&D funding which it doesn't have and will likely never have. As much as you'd like to believe that ARM will displace x86, it just won't. PowerPC was also a modern risc based CPU that ultimately lost to x86 due to sheer engineering. ARM will always dominate the mobile market for the same reason x86 will dominate the desktop and laptop market, because they were the first major player in the market. X86 will once again over engineer and beat ARM, because that's how x86 stayed alive for over 30 years. If ARM is too busy fighting Qualcomm for money, I doubt they have the funding to continue to engineer as they have been. I doubt this will push ARM out of the market, but I don't expect them to expand beyond their well established markets.

 

[ChadD]

ARM is broke, so why would bullying Apple be a bad idea? Apple is probably the worst at not paying ARM a reasonable license. It wouldn't be fair for ARM to go after Qualcomm and not include Apple.

It simply not even an option. Apple is ARMs founder. Their license is not like anyone else's. They have very special cut outs... its what you do when you found a third part company to make CPUs for you. Apple gave up on them after newton sure, and ARM went after other business. When it came back to ARM however Apple still had all the legal paper they needed to use ARM anyway they wanted and act like they owned the ISA. Do they pay fees... of course it was setup that way on purpose. Can ARM say no to Apple. Not so much. There is nothing ARM can do to bully Apple. Their license is irrevocable and immutable.

 

[DukenukemX]

It simply not even an option. Apple is ARMs founder. Their license is not like anyone else's. They have very special cut outs... its what you do when you found a third part company to make CPUs for you. Apple gave up on them after newton sure, and ARM went after other business. When it came back to ARM however Apple still had all the legal paper they needed to use ARM anyway they wanted and act like they owned the ISA. Do they pay fees... of course it was setup that way on purpose. Can ARM say no to Apple. Not so much. There is nothing ARM can do to bully Apple. Their license is irrevocable and immutable.

The problem is that Nvidia and Apple have "favorable" agreements with Arm, which puts everyone else at a disadvantage. So either everyone gets favoritism, or nobody does. I really doubt Qualcomm would dump ARM, but it may come to a point where Apple's irrevocable and immutable license with ARM had some changes made. Like I've said, if Nvidia bought ARM, you know they'd find a way around that license, and it wouldn't be very legal and many years of court battles because that's how Nvidia do. That favoritism that Apple has with ARM is costing ARM... an arm and a leg. ARM needs money and they're going after the only one who they can legally do so, and that's Qualcomm, at the moment. I can see Samsung and MediaTek being next.

 

[WilyKit]

The problem is that Nvidia and Apple have "favorable" agreements with Arm, which puts everyone else at a disadvantage. So either everyone gets favoritism, or nobody does. I really doubt Qualcomm would dump ARM, but it may come to a point where Apple's irrevocable and immutable license with ARM had some changes made. Like I've said, if Nvidia bought ARM, you know they'd find a way around that license, and it wouldn't be very legal and many years of court battles because that's how Nvidia do. That favoritism that Apple has with ARM is costing ARM... an arm and a leg. ARM needs money and they're going after the only one who they can legally do so, and that's Qualcomm, at the moment. I can see Samsung and MediaTek being next.

Everybody or nobody? Says who, exactly? what country and form of government are you under the impression these company’s are working out of/under that can force this bad take?

 

[ChadD]

The problem is that Nvidia and Apple have "favorable" agreements with Arm, which puts everyone else at a disadvantage. So either everyone gets favoritism, or nobody does. I really doubt Qualcomm would dump ARM, but it may come to a point where Apple's irrevocable and immutable license with ARM had some changes made. Like I've said, if Nvidia bought ARM, you know they'd find a way around that license, and it wouldn't be very legal and many years of court battles because that's how Nvidia do. That favoritism that Apple has with ARM is costing ARM... an arm and a leg. ARM needs money and they're going after the only one who they can legally do so, and that's Qualcomm, at the moment. I can see Samsung and MediaTek being next.

That is the way capitalisms work.
I agree Q Comm Samsung and basically everyone that isn't Apple should be exploring RiscV and making plans to exit as soon as possible. It would be much easier if companies like Google likewise explore non ARM options for their own server chip dreams.
The problem is all those RiscV solutions are going to take more then a few years to get to parity never mind really rival Arm. They should get on it though.
As for what would have been if Arm ended up being Nvidia. Apple wasn't worried.

They baked their rights into the very founding of that company... they where more then just Investor #1, it was the Apple brain trust that took Acorns accidental ARM efficiency win and turned it into a real product. The newton failed sure but it was not for lack of processing power. If Nvidia had tried to get cute... Apple would have ignored them continued doing exactly what they are doing and laughed at Nvidia if they threatened court. Its not like Nvidia would be bullying a company without a legal dept. In the end Apple would have walked away with not only the right to continue doing whatever they wanted... they likely would have walked away with the right to do anything they wanted with any Tech Nvidia extended onto ARM going forward as well. (I have a slightly conspiratorial theory that when Nvidias offers got serious and they where allowed to see the actual Apple ARM deal ink they scuttled the deal themselves behind the scenes. I mean I haven't seen the deal, but from what I have heard from a few people years back its the sort of deal that says if Arm invents something wicked cool and attaches it to any core ARM ISA it instantly becomes fair use for Apple. I don't know if that is true obviously... if it is I think it would explain Nvidia not really fighting all that hard for the deal to happen.)

If such a deal sounds insane... just consider X86. If Intel comes up with AVX 24,576 in 10 years from now. AMD can build a part that uses it and pay Intel ZIP. Likewise if AMD extends x86... into x86-1024. Intel can help themselves to the tech make all the chips they want and pay AMD ZIP. Its a forever cross license. Which almost exactly what everyone in the industry says Apple has with ARM. (its better for Apple as apparently its a one way street) Which makes a ton of sense when you consider how they where founded... Acorn ARM needed capital and a few patents Apple had, the cost was a forever cross license. If any payments from Apple to ARM where involved it was no doubt seen as some sort of tax scheme by Apple of the day nothing more. Most companies would have just bought Acorn... Apple what can you say they think different, they achieved the same goals without assuming long term risk. (and in a time before Open Source things... found a way to get other companies to do hardware work for them lol) I dislike Apple... but during those Non Jobs years they actually made some very interesting long term moves that set Jobs up.

 

[DukenukemX]

That is the way capitalisms work.
I agree Q Comm Samsung and basically everyone that isn't Apple should be exploring RiscV and making plans to exit as soon as possible. It would be much easier if companies like Google likewise explore non ARM options for their own server chip dreams.
The problem is all those RiscV solutions are going to take more then a few years to get to parity never mind really rival Arm. They should get on it though.
As for what would have been if Arm ended up being Nvidia. Apple wasn't worried.

The problem with RISC-V is that it's free for anyone to use, but who's going to fund it's development? Nobody in their right mind would fund it, and even if RISC-V evolved it risks fragmentation.

They baked their rights into the very founding of that company... they where more then just Investor #1, it was the Apple brain trust that took Acorns accidental ARM efficiency win and turned it into a real product. The newton failed sure but it was not for lack of processing power. If Nvidia had tried to get cute... Apple would have ignored them continued doing exactly what they are doing and laughed at Nvidia if they threatened court. Its not like Nvidia would be bullying a company without a legal dept. In the end Apple would have walked away with not only the right to continue doing whatever they wanted... they likely would have walked away with the right to do anything they wanted with any Tech Nvidia extended onto ARM going forward as well. (I have a slightly conspiratorial theory that when Nvidias offers got serious and they where allowed to see the actual Apple ARM deal ink they scuttled the deal themselves behind the scenes. I mean I haven't seen the deal, but from what I have heard from a few people years back its the sort of deal that says if Arm invents something wicked cool and attaches it to any core ARM ISA it instantly becomes fair use for Apple. I don't know if that is true obviously... if it is I think it would explain Nvidia not really fighting all that hard for the deal to happen.)

If I can think of a few ideas to get around the deal, then I'm sure Nvidia's team can think of a few dozen. One idea is that Nvidia could just dissolve ARM and reform a new company. With it a new ISA that is backwards compatible with ARM but mostly a new architecture all together. This removes any license Apple had with ARM and will now force Apple and many other ARM based chip manufacturers to switch to the new ISA or go at it alone. If ARM lost anymore money it might come down to that anyway. Maybe Nvidia's goal is to just wait for ARM to collapse to make a new ISA based on ARM?

 

[ChadD]

The problem with RISC-V is that it's free for anyone to use, but who's going to fund it's development? Nobody in their right mind would fund it, and even if RISC-V evolved it risks fragmentation.

If I can think of a few ideas to get around the deal, then I'm sure Nvidia's team can think of a few dozen. One idea is that Nvidia could just dissolve ARM and reform a new company. With it a new ISA that is backwards compatible with ARM but mostly a new architecture all together. This removes any license Apple had with ARM and will now force Apple and many other ARM based chip manufacturers to switch to the new ISA or go at it alone. If ARM lost anymore money it might come down to that anyway. Maybe Nvidia's goal is to just wait for ARM to collapse to make a new ISA based on ARM?

They couldn't just dissolve ARM and reform to cut out apple no. If Intel went under today their assets sold, and a new company born. They would still have to live with the AMD deal as long as they want to use x86. This is why Via has a x86 license. It belonged to Cyrix... who Intel ripped off and as a result where forced to sign the same sort of forever cross license deal. Cyrix was bought by Via shut down and absorbed... they retain the x86 license, they have even been able to sell it to the company making the sub par Chinese x86 chips. Those are 100% legal nothing Intel could do about it.

ARM was only ever its own company on paper. It has always been an arm of Apple. (no pun intended) Apple choose their first CEO, Apple names them... and ya have access to every ISA they ever invent going forward in a deal that would survive as long as anyone touches the original patents. Half of which came directly out of Apples portfolio. Acorn didn't even know what they had early on... they transferred their patents and 12 employees to the new company where they worked with Apple directly no the newton arm CPU... all that work on taking the old ARM V1 and V2 ISA and turning it into an a mobile CPU. Apple cross licensed those early patents with ARM. That is the very core of ARM... and Apple have the same sort of cross for life deal Intel shares with AMD and VIA. There is no detangling of that ever. I suspect Nvidia figured that out and quietly allowed their deal to die. It is possible that under a Nvidia/ARM Apple may have actually ended up with even GPU patent use if Nvidia was silly enough to directly embed and license them. Much in the same way that Intel can extend anything they want into x86... but by extension AMD has the rights to use it as well. That early tie and cross patent deal with Apple means ARM has zero power over Apple and never will. When ARM eventually rolls out ISA 10... Apple will be free to use it anyway they want.

Right now its hard to know how much $ ARM is getting from Apple. If Softbank does take them public it will be interesting, the deal between them and Apple will be made much clearer anyway. I suspect Apple pays nothing for a lot of their ARM chips... and for others pennies. Their "architecture" license in my estimation is a smoke screen put out by ARM to not spook their other customers. I think the truth is much more like the x86 agreements... and probably very little money changes hands. And the money that does only does because Apple probably has understood for awhile that ARM being everywhere is very very good for them as they essentially have free access to the entire ARM portfolio.... so keep em a float to a point. My sense is they pay a small fee for their phone chips and probably not a damn dime on their M1/M2 chips.

 

[Lakados]

If I can think of a few ideas to get around the deal, then I'm sure Nvidia's team can think of a few dozen. One idea is that Nvidia could just dissolve ARM and reform a new company. With it a new ISA that is backwards compatible with ARM but mostly a new architecture all together. This removes any license Apple had with ARM and will now force Apple and many other ARM based chip manufacturers to switch to the new ISA or go at it alone. If ARM lost anymore money it might come down to that anyway. Maybe Nvidia's goal is to just wait for ARM to collapse to make a new ISA based on ARM?

That’s a 2 way street, Apple licenses a bunch of stuff through to ARM as well, take that out and suddenly you find ARM no longer has a functional ISA and Nvidia is left scrambling to renegotiate a new deal with Apple. while simultaneously Broadcomm, Qualcomm, Samsung, MediaTek, HP, Amazon, Facebook, and a dozen other all line up lawsuits against NVidia for lost business by them bungling up the licenses.

It would be the legal equivalent of Intel dissolving and spinning off as Lentil so they could break the cross license agreement with AMD. Sure both would have a lot of parts but nobody would have anything functional.