See, the waiting game...

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heatlesssun

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http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8515&Itemid=1

Whether you believe this or not, 55nm GT200b by most of the rumor mills had been taped out in May so this isn't impossible.

And so the 4870x2 launches at $500-$550, then a few weeks later let's say a 750MHz GTX 290 rears is ugly head. There are cherry picked versions of the GTX 280 that can run at that speed already, and if they launched at $400, they could give the 4870x2 a run for its money.

At any rate, nVidia looks to be closing its performance vs. price gap faster than most expected. If nVidia does launch a GTX 290 or whatever in August/September it would need to be pretty impressive to even bother.
 
nissanztt90 said:
Ok...its Faud...and hes not telling us any rumors we werent already aware of...
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Not really. However with all of the excitement over the 4870x2 it wouldn't surprise me that nVidia is lying in wait to pounce. If they are this close I could see them even paper launching a GT 200b. I think everybody thinks that AMD is just going to walk on water from now on and I don' think that nVidia is going to take it laying down this time.
 
Nvidia did close the price gap pretty fast but not all the way. The GTX280 is still over priced for what it does over the 4870. Then again the 4870 is a little overpriced for what it does over the 4850 which is looking better and better, esp in crossfire

all the same I don't think Nvidia is done ether, but then again nether is ATI, they still can drop there price and still make money.
 
heatlesssun said:
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8515&Itemid=1

Whether you believe this or not, 55nm GT200b by most of the rumor mills had been taped out in May so this isn't impossible.

And so the 4870x2 launches at $500-$550, then a few weeks later let's say a 750MHz GTX 290 rears is ugly head. There are cherry picked versions of the GTX 280 that can run at that speed already, and if they launched at $400, they could give the 4870x2 a run for its money.

At any rate, nVidia looks to be closing its performance vs. price gap faster than most expected. If nVidia does launch a GTX 290 or whatever in August/September it would need to be pretty impressive to even bother.
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It would be really nice if the 55nm refresh launched on or before September 16. Given the expected lower cost of 55nm production, I can see a lot of no-brainer step-ups. :)
 
Valset said:
Nvidia did close the price gap pretty fast but not all the way. The GTX280 is still over priced for what it does over the 4870. Then again the 4870 is a little overpriced for what it does over the 4850 which is looking better and better, esp in crossfire

all the same I don't think Nvidia is done ether, but then again nether is ATI, they still can drop there price and still make money.
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Touche bro........

The 4850 is where the real value is @....period. I wouldn't run the 280 unless you gave it to me(would rather have a 9800gtx for the money) and for me, the 4870 doesn't offer enough increased performance to justify the price.

I'm looking forward to c the Benchmark #'s for the 4870x2 next month and I'd be willing to bet that Nvidia is NOT waiting in lay with a killer Gpu that will destory the later.
 
Valset said:
Nvidia did close the price gap pretty fast but not all the way. The GTX280 is still over priced for what it does over the 4870. Then again the 4870 is a little overpriced for what it does over the 4850 which is looking better and better, esp in crossfire

all the same I don't think nVidia is done ether, but then again nether is ATI, they still can drop there price and still make money.
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Of course its an ongoing battle but it just occurred to me that nVidia might really be trying to pull the trigger on a GT 200b to actually hit the 4870x2 launch. I think most were assuming that the 4870x2 would launch with no response from nVidia and this Fud article just made me think that maybe that's not going to be the case.

As for cutting prices, trust me. neither one of these companies in this climate is all that eager to cut prices. And if were talking about a $500 4870x2 with 2GB of DDR5 RAM, its not going to be without some pain on a company that just ate $1 billion bucks and has red ink as far as the eyes can see.

If AMD is going to be in a war of attrition, the fastest and the cheapest GPU's they can spit out, that still may not be enough to fix their bottom line as their main problem is on the CPU side.

Competition is great, but a great 4800 line isn't going to be of much help to AMD if they get into a huge price war.
 
Everybody knew this was coming, sooner or later. Does this mean in few months we'll see GTX260 in ~ $ 220 - $250 range, GTX 280 in ~ $350 - $400 range ? I hope so, because it looks like the real price war is ahead of us now :)...
 
Cork1 said:
Touche bro........

The 4850 is where the real value is @....period. I wouldn't run the 280 unless you gave it to me(would rather have a 9800gtx for the money) and for me, the 4870 doesn't offer enough increased performance to justify the price.

I'm looking forward to c the Benchmark #'s for the 4870x2 next month and I'd be willing to bet that Nvidia is NOT waiting in lay with a killer Gpu that will destory the later.
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Who said it had to be killer? Take a page from AMD's play book. A $400 dollar GTX 290 (55nm GT 200b GPU) clocked at say 750/1670/1200 would definitely look good against a $500 4870x2 based on the previews we just saw.

Cheaper, less complex (one GPU vs. two), less power, less heat. That sound familar?:)
 
heatlesssun said:
Of course its an ongoing battle but it just occurred to me that nVidia might really be trying to pull the trigger on a GT 200b to actually hit the 4870x2 launch. I think most were assuming that the 4870x2 would launch with no response from nVidia and this Fud article just made me think that maybe that's not going to be the case.

As for cutting prices, trust me. neither one of these companies in this climate is all that eager to cut prices. And if were talking about a $500 4870x2 with 2GB of DDR5 RAM, its not going to be without some pain on a company that just ate $1 billion bucks and has red ink as far as the eyes can see.

If AMD is going to be in a war of attrition, the fastest and the cheapest GPU's they can spit out, that still may not be enough to fix their bottom line as there main problem is on the CPU side.

Competition is great, but a great 4800 line isn't going to be of much help to AMD if they get into a huge price war.
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that would not surprise me ether, I have really been expecting something to take back the performance crown, even if its stupid. And your right AND does not want a price war but they NEED that market share if they want to recover. The 4850 is one to beat on that front but the high end will help the public perception quite a bit. and they can still lower prices and be in the black were Nvidia can't.

Still it would not surprise me to see you right about the GTX290 launch.
 
heatlesssun said:
[...]
If AMD is going to be in a war of attrition, the fastest and the cheapest GPU's they can spit out, that still may not be enough to fix their bottom line as there main problem is on the CPU side.
[...]

.
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QFT. AMD really needs make some decent CPUs. Currently there's no reason for a knowledgeable buyer to buy an AMD cpu. Intel is faster and cheaper in every price category and they have a stronger brand too.
AMD needs to get a great 150-250$ cpu out and the advertise the heck out of it, just spamming "this cpu is powerful and has great value and pwns intel" all over the place.
Companies that sell computers like to have a cpu in their machine that they can use as a selling point for their machine and currently, AMD can't deliver that.
 
heatlesssun said:
Who said it had to be killer? Take a page from AMD's play book. A $400 dollar GTX 290 (55nm GT 200b GPU) clocked at say 750/1670/1200 would definitely look good against a $500 4870x2 based on the previews we just saw.

Cheaper, less complex (one GPU vs. two), less power, less heat. That sound familar?:)
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excellent point
 
I still believe Nvidia was not caught flat footed by the ATI releases and the current price reductions are not only to be competitive, but also to make room in their pricing structure for a serious 4870x2 competitor.
 
heatlesssun said:
If AMD is going to be in a war of attrition, the fastest and the cheapest GPU's they can spit out, that still may not be enough to fix their bottom line as there main problem is on the CPU side.

Competition is great, but a great 4800 line isn't going to be of much help to AMD if they get into a huge price war.
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The ATI's current success is not going to pull AMD out.
AMD is not after profits (at least not for now) in the nVidia dominated GPU market.
To paraphrase James Carville, it's the market share, stupid!
 
jstenuf said:
I still believe Nvidia was not caught flat footed by the ATI releases and the current price reductions are not only to be competitive, but also to make room in their pricing structure for a serious 4870x2 competitor.
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And what are these believes being based upon?
 
I believe the GT200b is already so far along, because they were caught off guard by the HD4800 performance.
 
Kowan said:
I believe the GT200b is already so far along, because they were caught off guard by the HD4800 performance.
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I think that they were caught off guard, but probably knew how June was going to play out months ago. By the time they made and sold the chips back in April it was already too late.

I think you're on the right track, they had the GT 200b taped out in May and I bet it went into production as fast as they could get it there. I think nVidia thought they had some time left at 65nm which they didn't. The GTX 280 should have been released this past fall, and for whatever reason, being lazy maybe, they didn't, and then they should have had the GT 200b out this spring. I bet some heads are have rolled for missing this.

At 55nm vs. 55nm nVidia can be very competitive. If you think about it, they would increased the performance of the overall fastest single GPU and only increase their performance lead in the single GPU space and reducing cost at the same time.

We shall see. nVidia has done well in their space because they are great at execution and the laptop GPU issue and the GTX 280/260 release is not how they normally operate. GT 200b in September at 750/1670/1200 is VERY important to them. If they don't get it out by them I think that nVidia may be in for the roughest ride of its life.

Execution is the name of their game. If they fail to execute, especially with Intel coming into the GPU fray, they die.
 
tape-out to production is around 6 months usually. even that is a great achievement for chips like GT200b. at the best case (considering they only taped out the chip in may), GT200b will be in production by november this year.
 
cganesh75 said:
tape-out to production is around 6 months usually. even that is a great achievement for chips like GT200b. at the best case (considering they only taped out the chip in may), GT200b will be in production by november this year.
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I've heard that it can be done in 90-120 days if things go well.
 
I'd still pay the extra $150 for a 4870x2 for 1)better image quality (check the [H] Preview) 2) DX10.1 support 3)better performance 4)no need to buy two cards 5) no need to wait for a SLI - Nehalem motherboard
 
myndcrime said:
I'd still pay the extra $150 for a 4870x2 for 1)better image quality (check the [H] Preview) 2) DX10.1 support 3)better performance 4)no need to buy two cards 5) no need to wait for a SLI - Nehalem motherboard
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I might too! Since neither product is for sale its all hypothetical. As for waiting for that SLI Nehalem board, which may or may not be the case, we're still waiting for the 4870x2.

I'll say it again. When released, the 4870x2 will be the fastest single card ever and will be far superior to a single GTX 280. I'm well aware of that and it does make me salivate. I'd love to have a couple to go into my P35 board (probably not the best choice of motherboard but I've had one lying around for three months).

Now for how long the 4870x2 will rule the roost is another story. That's the great thing about competition!

One last point, DX 10.1 game support is pretty much dead with nVidia's lack of support and DX 11 just being announced. That's just the market reality. I do wish that nVidia had supported DX 10.1, but it's just not going to happen it looks and without both AMD and nVidia supporting it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot to game devs.
 
Competition is good, but it looks like we're going to have new cards coming out every 1-2 months from nvidia/ati

it makes deciding when to buy a little bit tricky ><
 
myndcrime said:
Competition is good, but it looks like we're going to have new cards coming out every 1-2 months from nvidia/ati

it makes deciding when to buy a little bit tricky ><
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Agreed completely. As the saying/curse goes, "May you live in interesting times." These are certainly interesting times as far as the GPU market is concerned! :)
 
So what is nvidia just going to rename their die shrink gtx 380 and try to sell it of as a "better" product? A die shrink this fast probably means it not going to be any more faster then an oc'ed gtx 280 model. Just wait for 2009 q1 and see what nv will answer with to this ati beast.
 
myndcrime said:
Competition is good, but it looks like we're going to have new cards coming out every 1-2 months from nvidia/ati

it makes deciding when to buy a little bit tricky ><
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Absolutely! That's why when someone says "Just wait a month or two" I'm a bit miffed. In a really competitive environment, we'd always be waiting a month or two.
 
DeadSkull said:
So what is nvidia just going to rename their die shrink gtx 380 and try to sell it of as a "better" product? A die shrink this fast probably means it not going to be any more faster then an oc'ed gtx 280 model. Just wait for 2009 q1 and see what nv will answer with to this ati beast.
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If you think that its AMD's game then no, why would nVidia release a part that isn't convening? A 25% clock boost in this case would be interesting if the part was only $400.

If you thought that nVidia has been lazy, that's understandable. I think that nVidia's hibernation cycle ended last month. If AMD has for once and all fixed its "hibernation" problem it had better have some better whoopass than nVidia bought!
 
heatlesssun said:
If you think that its AMD's game then no, why would nVidia release a part that isn't convening? A 25% clock boost in this case would be interesting if the part was only $400.

If you thought that nVidia has been lazy, that's understandable. I think that nVidia's hibernation cycle ended last month. If AMD has for once and all fixed its "hibernation" problem it had better have some better whoopass than nVidia bought!
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they have, and hopefully this is the beginning of AMD turning around.
 
heatlesssun said:
Who said it had to be killer? Take a page from AMD's play book. A $400 dollar GTX 290 (55nm GT 200b GPU) clocked at say 750/1670/1200 would definitely look good against a $500 4870x2 based on the previews we just saw.

Cheaper, less complex (one GPU vs. two), less power, less heat. That sound familar?:)
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Wait, the preview of the GT200b is out? How the hell did you know that it will look good against the HD 4870 X2? GT200b is cheaper than the HD 4870 X2? What is the retail price of the HD 4870 X2?
 
I'm assuming the 55nm GT200s will replace the 65nm ones but this soon?
The more I read it seems like GTX 280/260 was a rush job.
 
heatlesssun said:
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8515&Itemid=1

Whether you believe this or not, 55nm GT200b by most of the rumor mills had been taped out in May so this isn't impossible.

And so the 4870x2 launches at $500-$550, then a few weeks later let's say a 750MHz GTX 290 rears is ugly head. There are cherry picked versions of the GTX 280 that can run at that speed already, and if they launched at $400, they could give the 4870x2 a run for its money.

At any rate, nVidia looks to be closing its performance vs. price gap faster than most expected. If nVidia does launch a GTX 290 or whatever in August/September it would need to be pretty impressive to even bother.
Click to expand...
It's too bad nvidia inflated it's prices to begin with. I think they lost some customers coming out with ridiculously high prices to begin with.
 
heatlesssun said:
Who said it had to be killer? Take a page from AMD's play book. A $400 dollar GTX 290 (55nm GT 200b GPU) clocked at say 750/1670/1200 would definitely look good against a $500 4870x2 based on the previews we just saw.

Cheaper, less complex (one GPU vs. two), less power, less heat. That sound familar?:)
Click to expand...

It does sound familiar. It sounds like the 4870 which can already be bought for $275. The only thing that the gtx290 will have over the gtx280 is probably it will run cooler, less power, and less heat as you said. It will get higher clocks I'm sure and it might cut some of the huge performance gap left by the 4870x2 over the current gtx280...but it's obviously not aimed at taking back the performance crown. I'm sure the gtx290gx2 is the one that will try to top the 4870x2 set to be released in five months(J/K :p)
 
I REALLY like this price war going on. I plan on picking up a couple of 4870x2 as soon as they are released.
 
heatlesssun said:
I've heard that it can be done in 90-120 days if things go well.
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We don't know when GT200 precisely taped out, but G80 (8800GTX) exceeded the 120 day mark. Not that this is any bad, it's just routine, and when things get very bad, you get to R600's 7/8 months (eek)

We're seeing a GPU about the same size on a relatively simillar process. I would not be shocked if it took 120-150. Nevertheless it's a daring attempt to get back to speed- ATI's 3870 was overdue, and that was with a miracle production attempt (the 4800s went back to normal luck)
 
So we shouldn't wait less than one month to buy a GPU at $450 instead of $600?
 
alg7_munif said:
So we shouldn't wait less than one month to buy a GPU at $450 instead of $600?
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In the case of the GTX 280, everyone should have waited knowing that the 4870 was coming ONE WEEK later. I knew right away the price of the 280 would plummet soon after.

It's not always like that, though. Usually prices drop much slower than that.
 
myndcrime said:
In the case of the GTX 280, everyone should have waited knowing that the 4870 was coming ONE WEEK later. I knew right away the price of the 280 would plummet soon after.

It's not always like that, though. Usually prices drop much slower than that.
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Yes, I think that everyone should wait at least one month to let the price stabilize and the price gouging ends.
 
with all this talk about micro-stuttering, the 4870x2 or any sli/crossfire scares the shit out of me..I've never ran a setup like that, but ive seen some videos of microstuttering, and its like having 10fps....its terrible....im going to wait to hear some user reviews to see if they have that problem
 
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