Robots Could Push Unemployment To 50% In 30 years

Contracted? What are you referring to?

The entitlements aren't bankrupt either and are far from unviable. Most of the debt is long term and analogous to a mortgage on a house: so long as you keep making payments you're not bankrupt.
The size and scope of both government and it's programs.

Anyone telling you the programs are solvent is either naive or a total conman.

What we have is a bunch of government I.O.U.s that have already been double-spent.
 
We were one of the last to pull out of the Depression...use of the federal coffers to buy votes to achieve the social policies of the rich at the expense of the working Poor and Middle Class...Social Security... The rich have no part of it
Being one of the last or first to pull out of the Depression is no indicator of the New Deal or the effectiveness per se of govt. reform. Slow improvements are still improvements and Depressions tend to be quite slow to recover from almost no matter what a govt. or Central Bank does. Also comparing countries economies tends to be apples to oranges affair, they're often quite different making comparisons difficult.

If you want to call improving people's lives substantially via popular legislation and policy change vote buying then pretty much any politician ever who has engaged in policy changes the constituents liked or wanted has been buying votes. Which is ridiculous. It devalues to the term to say the least.

The rich also pay into SS. They just don't pay as much as everyone else under the max wage limit of ~$118K or so. From that perspective it is a regressive tax. It varies from year to year. The rich have no need of it but that doesn't mean they have no part in it.
 
The size and scope of both government and it's programs. Anyone telling you the programs are solvent is either naive or a total conman. What we have is a bunch of government I.O.U.s that have already been double-spent.
Which govt. programs? SS or what? And to what degree exactly and how are they, if you mean other programs, "insolvent"?

You realize a Pay Go system like as used with SS is never truly solvent or insolvent right? They're not regular insurance or annuities since they're backstopped by the govt. no matter what, the normal terms and rules don't actually apply. There is a fund, of sorts, but its all govt. debt instruments that can't be traded or lent, which is what I think you mean by IOU's. Its not a pile of money or stocks but it still has value.

When that fund runs out SS won't be insolvent. The govt. will either just issue more debt or raise taxes as needed or cut something else to pay for it. None of which is the end of the world or a fraudulent or underhanded policy change. It happens all the time.

FWIW all that is needed to keep the SS fund solvent for decades is to raise or eliminate the Taxable Earnings Base (aka max wage cap). No actual increase in the tax rate is even needed or other change in policy really. If means testing and a mild tax increase were implemented SS could easily be made financially self funding indefinitely.

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32896.pdf

Raising or eliminating the cap on wages that are subject to taxes could reduce the long-range
deficit in the Social Security Trust Funds. For example, if the maximum taxable earnings amount
had been raised in 2005 from $90,000 to $150,000—roughly the level needed to cover 90% of all
earnings—it would have eliminated roughly 40% of the long-range shortfall in Social Security. If
all earnings were subject to the payroll tax, but the base was retained for benefit calculations, the
Social Security Trust Funds would remain solvent for the next 75 years
 
What?????? The rich pay exactly the same percentage as the poor do into Social Security... 6.2% of their paychecks and a matching 6.2% from their employer. The maximum limits on what they tax is currently the first $118,500 of salary / compensation each year.

As for being a 'regressive tax', maybe you don't realize that people at the lower income levels get back considerably more as a percentage than richer folks based on what they put in. Use this calculator to see for yourself: Estimated Social Security Benefit

For example: If you made $40,000 / year and apply for SS benefits, your monthly check is $1111.00. If you made $100,000 / year, your check will be $2030.00. That means that the $100K person paid in 2.5x as much in SS taxes and only got 1.83x as much benefits back vs. the $40K person. Those numbers are even worse if you go down to $25k vs. $115k. It's designed to be a progressive system, not regressive!
 
What?????? The rich pay exactly the same percentage as the poor do into Social Security... 6.2% of their paychecks and a matching 6.2% from their employer. The maximum limits on what they tax is currently the first $118,500 of salary / compensation each year.
Are you being serious? So if somebody who earns $120k a year, they pay $14.88k a year into social security. If somebody earns $25 million, they pay... $14.88k a year into social security. How is that an equal percentage as the poor again?
 
[/QUOTE]

Actually I'd consider myself house rich. I've lived in the same house for over 20 years, and it's almost paid for.
It's worth way more than I could ever afford on my current pay, and if I sold it and moved to a state with lower housing costs (like a decent house for $250K), I would have enough left over to pay for half my retirement needs.
As I said, reverse mortgages might work for some people, but I'd never use one, just as I'd never use a pay day loan or any of the other expensive money services many people use.[/QUOTE]

Me too, I retired from the military as an E-6 with only 16 years of service, means I don't get much in retirement pay but my wife and I raised two kids very frugally and we saved and invested wherever we could. At 40, after I retired, we bought our first home and didn't need a mortgage at all, just wrote a check. My hand was shaking when I wrote that check. About seven years later we bought a condo in Tucson that cost just about as much as the house. We just sold it, but we didn't have a mortgage for it either. It's amazing how much money you can bank when you aren't making a house payment or paying rent. And the money you can save by not getting a mortgage is enough to make buying a second not really that hard. Face it, once you get past the first one and out from under having to pay out rent or loan+interest, you got it made my friends, you are over the top in a big way.
 
What?????? The rich pay exactly the same percentage as the poor do into Social Security... 6.2% of their paychecks and a matching 6.2% from their employer. The maximum limits on what they tax is currently the first $118,500 of salary / compensation each year.

As for being a 'regressive tax', maybe you don't realize that people at the lower income levels get back considerably more as a percentage than richer folks based on what they put in. Use this calculator to see for yourself: Estimated Social Security Benefit

For example: If you made $40,000 / year and apply for SS benefits, your monthly check is $1111.00. If you made $100,000 / year, your check will be $2030.00. That means that the $100K person paid in 2.5x as much in SS taxes and only got 1.83x as much benefits back vs. the $40K person. Those numbers are even worse if you go down to $25k vs. $115k. It's designed to be a progressive system, not regressive!


Who's bullshit have you been reading?

First off, your withholding that comes from your paycheck each payday has nothing at all to do with what you owe for the year. You are simply supposed to be close to the final number at year's end. Sometimes a person who earns additional no-withholding income must make estimated payments each quarter just to make sure they are paying in a "reasonable" amount of their taxes for what they will owe at the end of the year. Secondly, the poor or at least, the less well off, qualify for many tax breaks. Shit, in the 90's I was considered so poor that when it was all done for the year, my tax return was greater then what I owed for the year. I was making money each year. The first years of the Earned Income Credit were great for many people, the rich were actually paying the poor to live.

The more you earn the greater percentage you pay. Your statement makes it look like you have never ever seen a tax table. As your income goes up so does your percentage while at the same time you loose tax breaks designed for the poor. You even start loosing your ability to deduct IRA investments from your taxable income. Somewhere above $120,000 or so the tax table tops out and a person is paying a rough 1/3 of what he makes in income into taxes and all the tax breaks are long gone. Furthermore at that rate a guy is almost certainly making investment income which if capitol gains kicks in is also being payed at about 30%.

So you completely missed that $118,500. this isn't a cap, it's a cap on where the tax table stops advancing the percentage. You'll pay that same percentage in taxes on ALL your taxable income, or more if it's subject to capitol gains.
 
Oh, and if your not sure, I make $85K a year and my wife makes another $60K so together we are all over that top number. We pay on the same tax table as the richest people in the country do but we are only rich by a poor man's standards. The little woman does not wear Prada. With no mortgage to get a tax break, we only ever qualify for a standard deduction. Insult to injury, my property taxes are due every year and I pay all those other little taxes just like all of you guys. You'd think I'd be amassing my fortune but it never seems to go that way. We just seem to keep spending more. Having our 20 year old house repainted outside for the first time this week, $2,000, then income tax, I'll be writing a $4K check at least. Then it's the auto and home owners policies, property taxes, the driveway is cracked ..........
 
I was referring to modern day liberals who want the government to fix all of the worlds problems and control everyone and hunt for every single criminal, give out handouts, and so on and so on and so on. Most of what they advocate is allowing the government to control about everything....which is communism.

Actually it's communism, monarchies, oligarchies, most anything that isn't remotely similar to what we in the US have. Our little blend of a democratic republic with a little of the tenth amendment thrown in for balance.
 
Oh, and if your not sure, I make $85K a year and my wife makes another $60K so together we are all over that top number. We pay on the same tax table as the richest people in the country do but we are only rich by a poor man's standards. The little woman does not wear Prada. With no mortgage to get a tax break, we only ever qualify for a standard deduction. Insult to injury, my property taxes are due every year and I pay all those other little taxes just like all of you guys. You'd think I'd be amassing my fortune but it never seems to go that way. We just seem to keep spending more. Having our 20 year old house repainted outside for the first time this week, $2,000, then income tax, I'll be writing a $4K check at least. Then it's the auto and home owners policies, property taxes, the driveway is cracked ..........
I wouldn't say your rates are insult to injury, more like right where they should be. If you're having difficulty not having anything left over, that speaks more to the lifestyle you're accustomed to rather than how far that kind of money can take you. Your combined income puts you in the top 10% of the USA, and right on the border between upper middle class v. lower upper class (depending on what system is used to measure it). However you almost certainly ARE probably paying a higher percentage in taxes than people far, far richer than you, since once you start approaching the stratosphere, you can hire accountants to pull every tax trick for you, put money in offshore accounts that government can't find out about, lobby congressman to get laws changed favoring you or your business, etc. In an ideal situation, people wealthier than you would be paying at LEAST as much as you are, not less.
 
I wouldn't say your rates are insult to injury, more like right where they should be. If you're having difficulty not having anything left over, that speaks more to the lifestyle you're accustomed to rather than how far that kind of money can take you. Your combined income puts you in the top 10% of the USA, and right on the border between upper middle class v. lower upper class (depending on what system is used to measure it). However you almost certainly ARE probably paying a higher percentage in taxes than people far, far richer than you, since once you start approaching the stratosphere, you can hire accountants to pull every tax trick for you, put money in offshore accounts that government can't find out about, lobby congressman to get laws changed favoring you or your business, etc. In an ideal situation, people wealthier than you would be paying at LEAST as much as you are, not less.
you dont even need to do that. Just live on a farm and you can deduct out of the ass. The F form is a gold mine :D
 
The rich pay exactly the same percentage as the poor do into Social Security...
Where did I say they didn't? Google or read up on the Taxable Earnings Base. Increasing the Taxable Earnings Base has nothing to do with increasing the rate.

As for being a 'regressive tax', maybe you don't realize that people at the lower income levels get back considerably more as a percentage than richer folks based on what they put in.
Which is the way its supposed, as you note its meant to be a progressive system, to be but ignores my point: less of the rich people's total income is taxed even if the rate stays the same. That is how it is regressive. The total amount of money a billionaire will pay into SS is the same as someone how is "merely" a millionaire or who is right at the limit of the Taxable Earnings Base since only the 1st $118K of income is taxed for SS.

That is why raising or eliminating the Taxable Earnings Base would keep the fund loaded with cash without changing the rate at all: more of the rich's total income would be subject to the SS tax.

More food for thought:
While almost all working Americans will pay into Social Security through their paychecks throughout the year, the 900 wealthiest people in the country won’t.

That’s because the highest-earning 0.0001 percent of the U.S. — many of them corporate CEOs — made $117,000 in the first two days of the year, which is the maximum annual income that is subject to Social Security taxes under federal law.They get to live the year free from Social Security taxes because the law says that only the first $117,000 earned in a year can be taxed to fund the retirement program that kept more than 15 million people out of poverty in 2011.

Democrats have pushed to raise the cap in recent years from $106,800 in 2009 to the current level. Eliminating the cap entirely could make the program solvent for the next 75 years without cutting a dime from anyone’s benefits — and doing so wouldn’t touch the earnings of 94.2 percent of all American workers.Despite that option, most of the debates around Social Security in recent years have focused on cutting the program rather than increasing its revenue stream.

Yet Americans are facing a retirement crisis. Companies’ shifts from pensions to investment plans for retirees has undermined the financial security of working people while enriching the financial services industry and worsening inequality. For non-white workers who are far less likely to have access to even those paltry 401(k) plans, the picture is even bleaker. Overall more than half of all Americans are projected to see a steep drop in their standard of living upon retirement.
 
Where did I say they didn't? Google or read up on the Taxable Earnings Base. Increasing the Taxable Earnings Base has nothing to do with increasing the rate.


Which is the way its supposed, as you note its meant to be a progressive system, to be but ignores my point: less of the rich people's total income is taxed even if the rate stays the same. That is how it is regressive. The total amount of money a billionaire will pay into SS is the same as someone how is "merely" a millionaire or who is right at the limit of the Taxable Earnings Base since only the 1st $118K of income is taxed for SS.

That is why raising or eliminating the Taxable Earnings Base would keep the fund loaded with cash without changing the rate at all: more of the rich's total income would be subject to the SS tax.

More food for thought:
i dont see an issue but the last part...thats how it was specificly designed to not rob the rick entirely blind. Again, it would be better if the terrible program was just removed....but i am being wishful of course.

BTW who ever said i think the government is evil is correct. Government is a terrible waste and causes more trouble than it solves in almost all cases. I don't advocate no government....i advocate the smallest government possible because it is a necessary evil upto a certain point. I used to work for the DOD before retiring and worked with various other government organizations and government is the most wasteful organization i have ever seen. It has absolute power and is the hardest system to fix/shrink. Why would anyone want to further enlarge the most rigid organization concept ever built?

I won't get into anything in details but government is a horrible organization to use for nearly anything because accountability is a sarding joke.

If you think the government is efficient or benevolent your straight up delusional. The government could easily be half its size if corruption wasn't rampant and some basic accountability was thrown in with a little realism.

Find me one organization besides government that can print money, destroy lives, make up laws, ignore laws, use the "checks and balances" to protect its own interests and the list goes on. Let me know.
 
thats how it was specificly designed to not rob the rick entirely blind
How would it rob the rich blind? All other taxes aren't subject to a Taxable Earnings Base that only taxes the first ~$118K of income and the rich are still plenty rich. In fact they're richer than ever in just about all of US history.

Again, it would be better if the terrible program was just removed
How is it terrible and how could things be possibly better with it gone? Bear in mind prior to SS it was normal for the old to generally die in extreme poverty on the street. Mutual Aid Societies, the only other option available at the time, tended to fail to help people who paid in to them and often went bust during Recessions and almost totally collapsed during the Great Depression. They were also prone to fraud and ponzi schemes that would make Wall St. blush today.

I don't advocate no government....i advocate the smallest government possible because it is a necessary evil upto a certain point.
Except the smallest possible govt. approach has been a complete failure all throughout history. Not just the history of the world but also in the US where it was tried multiple times. Yes there is plenty of waste in govt but guess what? There is plenty of waste in private industry too. Quite a bit of fraud as well. And accountability is a joke everywhere you go. I've seen plenty of VIP's and middle managers play pass the buck in private industry and corporations to the detriment of the company as a whole or to the employees. Neither govt. nor private industry are perfect and each have their strengths and weaknesses.

If you think the government is efficient or benevolent your straight up delusional.
Neither govt. nor private business is efficient on a large scale, that is a human problem not a organizational one, and neither are inherently benevolent. There have been bad govt. and bad businesses. Govt. doesn't have the profit motive though and so when it does tend to fail on a operational level its usually due to incompetence rather than greed (which often leads to fraud in private industry) which is easier to sort out and fix.

Find me one organization besides government that can print money, destroy lives, make up laws, ignore laws, use the "checks and balances" to protect its own interests and the list goes on. Let me know.
Wildcat (read: private) banks and private tax collectors used to exist you know. They're gone and relegated to the dustbin of history because as bad as Central Banks and the IRS are they're still better than any of the private solutions were.
 
Sure corporations are corrupt too but you dont have corporations prosecuting themselves....conflict of interests?

SS was made to be a hogpog retirement plan and not a welfare plan but it has been turned into welfare over the years. It put those tax stop gaps in to prevent it from being pure welfar.

I will gladly choose private citizens have the choice to help the needed over forced takings to give to the "poor" I trust people with their own money more than an aribtary system that can never been adjusted. Trying to tweak SS in any manner take basically a damn miracle.

Yea and giant government have better records? Delusional must?

BTW thanks for completely taking my last statement out of context. GJ! Actual it wasn't even out of context you simple made something up and tried to claim i was talking about taxation and private tax collectors....
 
I'm still not clear who these robots are building stuff for if 50% of the populace is unemployed. Also, although labor costs have risen somewhat recently, it is still material costs (and not labor) that govern the majority of product manufacturing costs. Robots don't fix that conundrum (and make it worse in some ways) since they take materials to build and maintain themselves. No society can long function with 50% (or more) of the populace dependent on the shrinking remaining portion for basic survival. Even business is not foolish enough to totally eliminate their consumer base they need to sell products to, and business hates revolutions and violent insurrections (which tend to result from economic imbalances like that).
 
Sure corporations are corrupt too but you dont have corporations prosecuting themselves....conflict of interests?
Conflicts of interest happen all the time in private industry what are you talking about? They're also pretty piss poor at regulating themselves or even following regulations due to the profit motive.

It put those tax stop gaps in to prevent it from being pure welfar.
No, they did that because the law was written the 1930's with 1930's wages and wealth in mind. It just needs to be updated but good luck getting that through the current Congress. And it was always meant to be a welfare program and it was expected that people would live longer to use more of it in time too.

I will gladly choose private citizens have the choice to help the needed over forced takings to give to the "poor" ....Trying to tweak SS in any manner take basically a damn miracle.
Are you goal post shifting to talking about charity now? Charity has never been able to meet the needs of the poor ever in the history of the world and it can't do it now either. So your trust is misplaced and founded not in fact but, at best, ideology. Also trying to get the 40hr work week or even SS passed took what amounted to a "damn miracle". Just because its hard doesn't mean it isn't worthwhile.

Yea and giant government have better records? Delusional must?
I don't know what you're referring to here.

BTW thanks for completely taking my last statement out of context.
I didn't take you out of context at all. While I also didn't provide you with the example you were asking for I gave you some historical ones that are factual examples of private industry failing horribly where govt. has succeeded if only sloppily at that.
 
I'm still not clear who these robots are building stuff for if 50% of the populace is unemployed. Also, although labor costs have risen somewhat recently, it is still material costs (and not labor) that govern the majority of product manufacturing costs. Robots don't fix that conundrum (and make it worse in some ways) since they take materials to build and maintain themselves. No society can long function with 50% (or more) of the populace dependent on the shrinking remaining portion for basic survival. Even business is not foolish enough to totally eliminate their consumer base they need to sell products to, and business hates revolutions and violent insurrections (which tend to result from economic imbalances like that).
This has been said throughout history. The cotten gin, industrial era and so on. What will happen is new sectors will be made and new jobs will be filled. Look at whole agriculture was 90% of the market but now its mostly manufacturing and service. You'll see that more and more service jobs will exist. Cleaning, massages, pleasure/leasuire, and so on will become more common. It just means new types of jobs will be made but some displacement will happen and some time will be needed for the market to adjust.
 
I'm still not clear who these robots are building stuff for if 50% of the populace is unemployed.
For the rich, HENRY's, and the (now small) middle class. Just because the market for goods shrinks doesn't mean the jobs would or could come back. Most of the poor and unemployed would end up like those that live in favelas in 3rd world countries essentially.

it is still material costs (and not labor) that govern the majority of product manufacturing costs. Robots don't fix that conundrum
They don't have to be a cure all for manufacturing to end up replacing most labor, just cheaper than most labor.

No society can long function with 50% (or more) of the populace dependent on the shrinking remaining portion for basic survival. Even business is not foolish enough to totally eliminate their consumer base they need to sell products to, and business hates revolutions and violent insurrections (which tend to result from economic imbalances like that).
There are also plenty of modern societies where the few rich have nearly all the wealth and everyone else lives in grinding poverty. Again 3rd world countries are what I'd look to. Historically under Feudalism and various empires it was normal for almost everyone but the rich to be dirt poor or a slave. Not saying I like or want it that way but it could really happen unfortunately.

"Business" isn't a single entity or collection of entities with a common plan for the common good: its everyone for himself and they can and will screw over entire nations or groups of people to get their profits. This is common and normal all throughout the world right now. We got a taste of it in the US during the Housing Bubble and Global Financial Crisis.
 
You'll see that more and more service jobs will exist. Cleaning, massages, pleasure/leasuire, and so on
Robots will be able to do nearly all those jobs cheaper or better than humans though too. The future will not be exactly like the past since in the past such advanced machinery and software didn't exist to do such tasks. In the future, a very near future at that, it will.
 
@post 100 We are far away from robots able to do fine and advance stuff that human hands can do. When we have humanoid robots with skin sure but thats centuries away. Again there are countless things that robots will never beable to do unless they are sentient....again centuries if not longer. Entertainment is one of them. Plus at the moment most people don't like robots and rather interact with a human. I am not worried about a full automated society...thats 100s of years away and by that point it will be moot because other things will have solved those issues. Worrying about it amounts to fear mongering and....forgot the second part :/ It is pointless to worry about it because it isn't an actual issue. The time between that point the market and society will adjust because we will have changed several generations by then.

if you say a full automated society is less than even 100 years from now your full of shit. We were all supposed to be in fly cars and all sorts of stupid BS but low and behold people over estimate advancements like crazy. The market/society will adjust just fine.


Conflicts of interest happen all the time in private industry what are you talking about? They're also pretty piss poor at regulating themselves or even following regulations due to the profit motive.


No, they did that because the law was written the 1930's with 1930's wages and wealth in mind. It just needs to be updated but good luck getting that through the current Congress. And it was always meant to be a welfare program and it was expected that people would live longer to use more of it in time too.


Are you goal post shifting to talking about charity now? Charity has never been able to meet the needs of the poor ever in the history of the world and it can't do it now either. So your trust is misplaced and founded not in fact but, at best, ideology. Also trying to get the 40hr work week or even SS passed took what amounted to a "damn miracle". Just because its hard doesn't mean it isn't worthwhile.


I don't know what you're referring to here.


I didn't take you out of context at all. While I also didn't provide you with the example you were asking for I gave you some historical ones that are factual examples of private industry failing horribly where govt. has succeeded if only sloppily at that.


Yes they did put a stop gap for a legit reason. They wanted to program to have a limit so that it wasn't a complete redistribution of wealth. Plenty of people were over the original cap...dont be ridiculous.

You said small governments have been a failure and i said and large massive ones have been better? No way. Large governments have been larger wastes throughout history and have trampled civil liberties the most. Bigger they are the more they can abuse....obviously.

And yes i was referring to charities and thats not goal post shifting. There are two solutions to this problem or a combination. I rather let people have a choice in the matter or more choices. I'll take more freedoms over less any day. Life sucks and bad things happen and some poeple get a short straw but difficulty makes people try and make something of themselves. Welfare makes people lazy especially when US welfare makes people dependent and creates a system where people don't want to get out because they make more living off the tits of others. Go google the numbers. People on welfare in IL can make ~36000 a year -_- People don't get off it because they'll make less actually working. Thats a serious issue.

Where has government succeeded? You are completely revisioning and cherry picking. When you got a system that makes people dependent and gives them no reason to work...thats a serious issue.

Additionally, lets go back for a moment.

Do you trust a system that polices itself more than a system that has an external checks and balances? Say government vs private? Government policies itself vs private is policed by government. Also government is nearly impossible to change and fix vs a private organization (that's a fact). You cant easily replace a broken government program vs a privately run organization. Private organization isn't going to use deadly force to protect its existence (at least not on the level of a government).

For an example, if one of these organizations can actually get away with murdering people with out consequences would you even trust it to keep itself accountable about the "small" things?

Why would you put faith into an organization that has virtually no real checks and balances and no way too get grievances addressed?

Have you ever heard of a private organization able to murder someone on video and not get thrown in jail? And prosecute itself?

Or a private organization able to restructure evidence to avoid fruit of the poisonous tree and further its agenda (DEA)?

Indefinitely lock a citizen up without habeas corpse or whatever?

Have a black site holding facility in Chicago (CPD)?

I can go on and on but feel free to show a private organization able to do any of those and please honestly tell me if you would trust an organization that can actually murder people on video and prosecute themselves and refuse to do anything about it.
 
Are you being serious? So if somebody who earns $120k a year, they pay $14.88k a year into social security. If somebody earns $25 million, they pay... $14.88k a year into social security. How is that an equal percentage as the poor again?

First off: You're right the 'rich' pay a maximum capped amount no matter what they earn.... They also receive a maximum capped amount. If they have to pay in more, the system will also be adjusted to pay out more to those same 'rich' people.
Second: Raising the social security cap (or eliminating it) would actually lower how much the rich pay in federal and state taxes, thereby offsetting some of the gains you're going for. If you're taking 6.2% (plus the employers match) out of someone's paycheck, that comes out before the federal / state taxes are calculated... thereby lowering those taxes. Social Security would receive a boost... the federal and state governments would just have to borrow more to cover everything else.
Third: If employers are required to match that 6.2% social security tax, what do you think the odds are that people get paid less or get raises less often? I'd say it's high as no company can just eat an instant 6% loss on payroll costs. If payrolls are affected downward to cover that 6%, then we go back to 'Second' and watch the federal and state taxes take an even bigger hit.
Fourth: Some of the people posting above are totally confusing federal taxes with social security and Medicare / Medicaid. How much you pay in 'estimated' quarterly taxes has NO bearing on social security taxes (FICA). You can't claim deductions or dependents against SS taxes and lower their amount. If you get paid $1000.00 in a pay period, you will pay $62.00 in FICA tax and so will your employer. If you're self-employed, you'll pay both sides (12.4%).
Fifth: I suggest people aught to study up on Marginal tax rates. There's been a lot of studies done that show how marginal taxes rates (total taxes) affect everyone if they're allowed to get too high.

There are a lot of younger folks that like to point out that we once had much higher tax rates in this country for income. What is never said in the media is the other side... we also had much higher deductions available than we do now. When I was young, I could write off interest paid on car loans, student loans, credit cards, etc. for example. The only major interest deduction available now is for a house loan.... and even that type of deduction has a maximum limit. The actual 'average' tax rate that people pay in this country isn't all that much different now than it was 60 years ago when those 90% top tax rates actually existed. In fact, the 'poor' actually pay MUCH less now than they use to. Historical Average Federal Tax Rates for All Households
 
@post 100 We are far away from robots able to do fine and advance stuff that human hands can do.
That is a goal post shift from "Cleaning, massages, pleasure/leasuire, and so on". They don't have to do everything a human's hands can do, just most of it to replace most jobs. I've also never talked about a fully automated society or work place. Neither did the article in the 1st post.

es they did put a stop gap for a legit reason.
In 1930's when the law was written sure and under 1930's wages and 1930's degrees of wealth the concept made sense. It doesn't today because things, in this case wage stagnation + massive wealth inequality, change. There is nothing ridiculous about this and the paper I linked a ways back in thread goes over all this stuff in detail.

No way. Large governments have been larger wastes throughout history and have trampled civil liberties the most. Bigger they are the more they can abuse....obviously.
All govt's prior to the 1700s have been smaller than any US one but plenty of atrocities, genocides, wars, and massive amounts of stupidity have occurred due to them. Being small doesn't mean they can't cause or enable massive abuses at all. Look at the slave trade from a historical perspective. Or look at people like Genghis Khan. Look at the Tulip Bubble or the Crusades. You have to be blind to history to believe the things you're saying.

And yes i was referring to charities and thats not goal post shifting.... I'll take more freedoms over less any day....Welfare makes people lazy.... People don't get off it because they'll make less actually working. Thats a serious issue.
The discussion had nothing to do with charities, you were saying SS was terrible and didn't explain how. You just dropped that part of the discussion and then started hinting at charities as a replacement to SS with no information to support your view. So yes that is goal post shifting. The freedom to starve or die in the streets isn't much of a freedom at all. And it was one that society already decided they didn't want anyways when it was put to a vote. That you might want that "freedom" is irrelevant. The US and society doesn't do what you or I want. Productivity is the highest its ever been in US history BTW so you're going to have to provide some seriously high quality evidence to prove welfare makes people lazy too. Just remember we're supposed to be talking about SS while you do it in your reply.

I take it in your last statement quoted you're arguing for a massive increase wages as a fix or what? Because yes its a serious issue but its due to people not getting paid enough since wages adjusted for inflation have been stagnant for like 40yr or so.

Where has government succeeded? You are completely revisioning and cherry picking.
SS, the IRS, and Central Banks are all success of govt. and no none are cherry picking or "revisioning". They all also came about due to market failures and/or failures of private enterprise to meet the needs of people and/or govt.

SS is due to most of the elderly dying in extreme poverty and the failure of Mutual Aid Societies, and also come to think of it charity, to provide for them: The World: Life Before Social Security; 'A Great Calamity Has Come Upon Us'
The IRS exists because private tax collectors were tried, as a alternative to the then existent BIR and a "free market solution", and found to be massively corrupt and incompetent: Sanborn incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Central Banks like the FED exist to coordinate the economy due to massive market and bank busts which completely failed multiple times in bigger and uglier ways: Long Depression - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, Panic of 1907 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is all historical fact and you can't just make claims that I'm cherry picking or "revisioning" here. You're going to have to put some effort into your posts and back them up with facts. And no links to stuff from Von Mises or the Tax Foundation aren't legit either.

Government policies itself vs private is policed by government. Also government is nearly impossible to change and fix vs a private organization (that's a fact). You cant easily replace a broken government program vs a privately run organization. Private organization isn't going to use deadly force to protect its existence (at least not on the level of a government).
Govt. is policed by voters and officials they elect though, its facetious of you to claim otherwise. People do occasionally vote for the wrong people who do terrible things (ie. Hitler, Bush, etc.) but that is a whole other problem that private enterprise cannot address. Its hard to change any large organization, whether its private or govt., due to social inertia, buck passing, self centered or out of touch leadership, etc. All those problems also happen in private industry and have caused major private companies to collapse in the past. Private organization also does routinely use deadly force to protect its existence and achieve its goals via mercenaries or by paying for coups. Its so common that the name "Banana Republic" has often been given to various Central American countries as a result of United Fruit's successful efforts to have its interests enforced when the local populace wanted to redistribute some wealth. Another great historical example would be the Dutch East India company's efforts with the slave trade.

if one of these organizations can actually get away with murdering people with out consequences would you even trust it to keep itself accountable about the "small" things? Why would you put faith into an organization that has virtually no real checks and balances and no way too get grievances addressed? Have you ever heard of a private organization able to murder someone on video and not get thrown in jail? And prosecute itself?
Modern PMC's would meet all if not all your criteria here. They're notorious for getting away with murder and worse.

Or a private organization able to restructure evidence to avoid fruit of the poisonous tree and further its agenda (DEA)?....Indefinitely lock a citizen up...Have a black site holding facility
PMC's do this too. Blackwater has changed itself into Xe and then Academi and now Constellis and has done all this stuff in Iraq and Afghanistan. At least with the CIA most of the torturers were made to leave the organization and there was public outcry about what went down that helped to get Bush's cronies booted out over time too. Not saying that is ideal or just, it isn't, but its clearly better than what has done down with the PMC's.
 
Who's bullshit have you been reading?

First off, your withholding that comes from your paycheck each payday has nothing at all to do with what you owe for the year. You are simply supposed to be close to the final number at year's end. Sometimes a person who earns additional no-withholding income must make estimated payments each quarter just to make sure they are paying in a "reasonable" amount of their taxes for what they will owe at the end of the year. Secondly, the poor or at least, the less well off, qualify for many tax breaks. Shit, in the 90's I was considered so poor that when it was all done for the year, my tax return was greater then what I owed for the year. I was making money each year. The first years of the Earned Income Credit were great for many people, the rich were actually paying the poor to live.

The more you earn the greater percentage you pay. Your statement makes it look like you have never ever seen a tax table. As your income goes up so does your percentage while at the same time you loose tax breaks designed for the poor. You even start loosing your ability to deduct IRA investments from your taxable income. Somewhere above $120,000 or so the tax table tops out and a person is paying a rough 1/3 of what he makes in income into taxes and all the tax breaks are long gone. Furthermore at that rate a guy is almost certainly making investment income which if capitol gains kicks in is also being payed at about 30%.

So you completely missed that $118,500. this isn't a cap, it's a cap on where the tax table stops advancing the percentage. You'll pay that same percentage in taxes on ALL your taxable income, or more if it's subject to capitol gains.


You're totally missing the difference between FICA taxes and federal income taxes. FICA is a tax with an income limit (currently at least) and no modifying options allowed. I suggest you go back and re-read what I wrote. Yes, Federal withholding is a variable. But FICA is a constant 6.2% up to the cap (12.4% with employer match) and nothing you do (IRA's, dependents, long-form deductions for charity, etc) can change that FICA amount. The poor pay that tax just like the rich do - at exactly the same rate.

One other argument that should be talked about with SS benefits: It can be argued that we aren't entitled to squat for social security no matter how much we've paid in over our lifetimes. We don't have an entitlement because our parents and grandparents are living off what we paid in. That's the way the system was set up.... Current payers support the existing retirees. Our children will be the ones that have to pay for us. Our money has already been spent. If we're going to be dealing with a 50% reduction of our workforce, I don't see how SS keeps going as we currently know it.
 
They also receive a maximum capped amount. If they have to pay in more, the system will also be adjusted to pay out more to those same 'rich' people.
Which is fine, no one has a problem with that per se, though it must be mentioned that means testing would help keep SS self funding for longer here, and that wouldn't effect the ability of SS to continue to operate.

Second: Raising the social security cap (or eliminating it) would actually lower how much the rich pay in federal and state taxes, thereby offsetting some of the gains you're going for.
This would be negligible at absolute worst since the SS tax is on wages only. The rich don't actually earn much money through wages. Most of their money is in stocks and bonds which are subject to the capital gains tax instead. The Capital Gains Tax BTW is lower than the highest wage tax bracket at 20% for people who earn more than $400K/yr. The highest wage tax bracket for 2015 is 39.6% for single earners with a income of $413K or higher. Do be aware that isn't the effective tax rate though which is often much lower than that due to deductions and other exemptions.

Third: If employers are required to match that 6.2% social security tax, what do you think the odds are that people get paid less or get raises less often?
About the same as it is right now. Reminder: employers let wages stagnate since the late 70's in the US. They're not really giving raises out now or just about ever really so your third point here is moot and quite frankly a bit out of touch with the reality people have to deal with right now in the work place.

Fifth: I suggest people aught to study up on Marginal tax rates. There's been a lot of studies done that show how marginal taxes rates (total taxes) affect everyone if they're allowed to get too high.
There have but there is no evidence to suggest that the US's tax rates are anywhere near too high. Or that raising or eliminating the SS Taxable Earnings Base will cause any problems to the economy at large.

There are a lot of younger folks...
The thing you have to understand though is that the poor now are generally poorer than they were back then in terms of income and that the rich are FAR richer than they were back then. This is why wealth inequality is talked about so much.
 
If we're going to be dealing with a 50% reduction of our workforce, I don't see how SS keeps going as we currently know it.
You'd have to crank the taxes up on the only people who'd have nearly all the money at that point to make it work: the rich.

It can be argued that we aren't entitled to squat for social security no matter how much we've paid in over our lifetimes.
If you believe this then you must also, by default, believe that all forms of insurance (private or otherwise) are invalid too.
 
You're totally missing the difference between FICA taxes and federal income taxes. FICA is a tax with an income limit (currently at least) and no modifying options allowed. I suggest you go back and re-read what I wrote. Yes, Federal withholding is a variable. But FICA is a constant 6.2% up to the cap (12.4% with employer match) and nothing you do (IRA's, dependents, long-form deductions for charity, etc) can change that FICA amount. The poor pay that tax just like the rich do - at exactly the same rate.

One other argument that should be talked about with SS benefits: It can be argued that we aren't entitled to squat for social security no matter how much we've paid in over our lifetimes. We don't have an entitlement because our parents and grandparents are living off what we paid in. That's the way the system was set up.... Current payers support the existing retirees. Our children will be the ones that have to pay for us. Our money has already been spent. If we're going to be dealing with a 50% reduction of our workforce, I don't see how SS keeps going as we currently know it.
The 'rich' are often just living off investments side-step FICA completely The ones who are employed don't pay in an absolute sense, anything more than someone making $100,000. So its a regresssive tax on the rich, when they do pay it.

SS was never sold on the revolving door model. There was an initial grace period that people who never paided into it could start collecting, but the baby boom population was suppose to support that and have money left over to build the coffer. That's not what happened. There's a difference between what was promised/inferred and what happened.
 
There's a difference between what was promised/inferred and what happened.
True but this is due to an unforeseeable wealth inequality gap that no one predicted would occur.

Basically if employers had continued to raise wages with inflation and productivity increases since the 70's no one would be saying a thing about the viability of SS. Its also why raising the Taxable Earnings Base is probably going to be needed at some point if they don't want to start cutting the military's budget.
 
No. The biggest problem is they don't provide enough security for the money invested as a retirement option and frequently get wiped out due to the market taking a dump when people need them the most. Your situation is the not the same as everyone else's so you can't give your experience as proof of its effectiveness here. Especially when those articles both gave evidence showing 401k's widespread failure for most everyone in the entire nation. If it can only work for a few at best then its not a viable option.

What it boils down to is that you need to be engaged with your investments, not let them be on auto pilot like a lot of people do. How you invest in your 30-40s is alot different then how you should invest your money when your over 60 and getting closer to retirement. You invest that money into things that aren't affected as much as stocks are if there is downturn in the market.
 
Basically if employers had continued to raise wages with inflation and productivity increases since the 70's no one would be saying a thing about the viability of SS. Its also why raising the Taxable Earnings Base is probably going to be needed at some point if they don't want to start cutting the military's budget.

The defense budget isn't the problem its the money being put into Medicare and SS. If you actually looked at the budget that the US has, there are two of them...one is required spending (i.e. Medicare/SS) and the other is discretionary spending (i.e. defense budget)

The military budget is 598 Billion, but Medicare is nearly 1 Trillion and SS is 895 Billion dollars...even if you cut the military budget in half it wouldn't make much of dent in the two biggest programs.
 
What it boils down to is that you need to be engaged with your investments, not let them be on auto pilot like a lot of people do.
None of that works in the real world though because people in general are terrible at investing and routinely do dumb things with their money since they're not rational.

I'm sure there are some people who have great financial restraint and the know how to invest themselves properly but they're few and far between, as is shown by the data in the articles on how big of a failure 401ks have been to provide for retirement that was linked earlier. Therefore it is dumb, as a matter of national economic policy, to expect and require people in general to manage their own retirement funds. Not saying I like that fact but that it is indeed a fact.

Also generally doing the "dumb" autopilot index fund investing is about the safest and best way for even most knowledgable people to invest: It's Getting Harder And Harder To Deny The Power Of The Index Fund
Looking at advanced portfolios holding 10 asset classes between 1997 and 2012, researchers found index fund portfolios outperformed comparable actively managed portfolios a staggering 82% to 90% of the time. And the longer investors held those investments, the better shot they had at outperforming active funds over time.

Still not convinced? Even lowering the cost of actively managed fund portfolios couldn't offer a boost significant enough to outperform index funds, the researchers found.

“The outcome of this study statistically favors an all-index fund strategy, all the time," the report says. "The probability of outperformance using the simplest index fund portfolio started in the 80th percentile and increased over time and with additional asset classes. These results have significant and practical implications for investors who seek a strategy that can give them the highest chance of reaching their investment goals.”
 
As some have already stated Capitalism is not evil. People are evil.
You work hard you get paid life is good. When corruption and greed take hold working hard isn't enough and people suffer.
Socialism or Communism are flawed in a much worse way because you cannot choose to participate and are also rampant with corruption and greed.

Read 1984
 
The defense budget isn't the problem its the money being put into Medicare and SS. If you actually looked at the budget that the US has, there are two of them...one is required spending (i.e. Medicare/SS) and the other is discretionary spending (i.e. defense budget)

The military budget is 598 Billion, but Medicare is nearly 1 Trillion and SS is 895 Billion dollars...even if you cut the military budget in half it wouldn't make much of dent in the two biggest programs.
I didn't say the military budget itself was a problem, I said they might have to cut it to fund SS. And yes pumping nearly $300 Billion would make a big difference to SS. That is a 30%+ increase in funding going forward for SS. We'd also still be spending more than most if not all the other militaries in the world at that point.

That probably isn't necessary though if they just raise or eliminate the SS Taxable Earnings Base.
 
The thing you have to understand though is that the poor now are generally poorer than they were back then in terms of income and that the rich are FAR richer than they were back then. This is why wealth inequality is talked about so much.

prove that. I have never seen any stats that say the poor are now poorer than the past. Everyone's quality of life has gone up and welfare is massive in the US....again people can make over 30K a year on welfare. Plus off the book labor isn't hard.

Also it should be noted a large portion of defense spending in VA/pension. VA pay should be higher but the VA has done a great job screwing vets out of disabilities from work and the war. Getting VA to actually give you an accurate rating is ridiculously hard especially for brain injuries even with proper documentation. The VA is natorious for givening the lowest rating and forcing vets to go through several years of legal battle just to make it as difficult as possible so most vets just give up at that point.

why would u cut miliotary spending that actually does generate something vs not cut welfare? Especially a horrible broken welfare.

we spent over a trillion a year on welfare....it has plenty of bloat to cut.
 
I didn't say the military budget itself was a problem, I said they might have to cut it to fund SS. And yes pumping nearly $300 Billion would make a big difference to SS. That is a 30%+ increase in funding going forward for SS. We'd also still be spending more than most if not all the other militaries in the world at that point.

Part of the reason that US military spends so much is that its actually one of the largest employers in the world.

Who is the world’s biggest employer? The answer might not be what you expect.
 
Socialism or Communism are flawed in a much worse way because you cannot choose to participate and are also rampant with corruption and greed. Read 1984
1984 was about a Totalitarian state with Socialist trappings not about Socialism or Communism per se. If you actually read Orwell's comments about govt. he believed the actual system of govt. didn't much matter and that 1984 could just as easily be applied to the US or Capitalistic Republic of sorts too.

Socialism and Communism are no more prone to corruption or greed than Capitalism. Plenty of European Socialist countries ran and still run just fine. Some of them had better deficit levels than the US up until the Global Financial Crisis. Choosing to participate or not in a Socialist or Communist state is the same as it is for a Capitalist one: if you don't like it you can leave and go to a different country with different rules.
 
Also it should be noted a large portion of defense spending in VA/pension. VA pay should be higher but the VA has done a great job screwing vets out of disabilities from work and the war. Getting VA to actually give you an accurate rating is ridiculously hard especially for brain injuries even with proper documentation. The VA is natorious for givening the lowest rating and forcing vets to go through several years of legal battle just to make it as difficult as possible so most vets just give up at that point.

Actually the VA is broken out from DOD spending

Federal Spending: Where Does the Money Go

And the reason the VA is so fucked up is not because of Iraq/Afghanistan...its the aging Baby Boomer population that served in Vietnam. The amount of troops that served in the Middle east over the past is tiny vs what happened in Vietnam.
 
1984 was about a Totalitarian state with Socialist trappings not about Socialism or Communism per se. If you actually read Orwell's comments about govt. he believed the actual system of govt. didn't much matter and that 1984 could just as easily be applied to the US or Capitalistic Republic of sorts too.

Socialism and Communism are no more prone to corruption or greed than Capitalism. Plenty of European Socialist countries ran and still run just fine. Some of them had better deficit levels than the US up until the Global Financial Crisis. Choosing to participate or not in a Socialist or Communist state is the same as it is for a Capitalist one: if you don't like it you can leave and go to a different country with different rules.
that is niave....absolute power with no checks like communism is systematically more likely to become corrupt....history shows this. I really cant tell if your totally oblivious or intellectually dishonest.

BTW I am still waiting for you to answer my question about which u will trust more.
 
Part of the reason that US military spends so much is that its actually one of the largest employers in the world.
They spend "only" about $150 Billion of their budget on people though. Quite a bit of it is being blown on hardware and stupid pork barrel projects. Cutting the military budget in half wouldn't have to effect the amount of people they employ unless the military wanted it to.
 
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