NVIDIA Swamped with Extra Inventory

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by FrgMstr, Jun 20, 2018.

  1. FrgMstr

    FrgMstr Just Plain Mean Staff Member

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    An anonymous writer at Seeking Alpha says that Chalie at SemiAccurate says that someone told him that NVIDIA is holding back its next-gen GPUs due to a massive overstocking inventory problem. And you can take that to the banks's bank's bank.


    Too Much of It - Nvidia has overestimated pent-up gaming demand and underestimated the impact of declining mining demand.

    How badly have they miscalculated? - Enough to have to agree to take back 300k GPUs from a 'top 3' Taiwan OEM. This is quite notable news as Nvidia usually exerts massive influence over its partners and can be quite ruthless with allocations of new GPUs if partners step out of line. The fact that this partner returned these GPUs says a lot about the current state of supply in the channel. The report also cites Nvidia aggressively buying GDDR5 as evidence that they now have an excess stock of lower-end GPUs that need to be made into boards as well as other insiders/sources citing an inventory buildup.

    When you factor in manufacturing lead times at TSM and the current supply on hand, Nvidia really has no choice but to wait if they want to avoid expensive price protection payouts.
     
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  2. ThatsAgood1jay

    ThatsAgood1jay [H]ard|Gawd

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    Rumor spreading to help a short position?
     
  3. BSmith

    BSmith [H]ard|Gawd

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    Something does not smell right. And no,....my tin foil hat has not slipped over my face.
     
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  4. TheOne&OnlyZeke

    TheOne&OnlyZeke 100% Irish

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    Cheap 1080Tis for EVERYONE

    I highly doubt this is real. nVidia are cutthroat...so they'd just tell their OEMs to go pound sand if this situation were to happen
    "sell our shit or else"
     
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  5. Overall prices are just a little above MSRP on average. So something isn't jiving. Over supply and Over MSRP? Is a supplier sitting on stock hoping prices will come back up?
     
  6. Donald Bell

    Donald Bell Limp Gawd

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    I bet it is laptop chips, not desktop.
     
  7. Logan321

    Logan321 [H]ard|Gawd

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    It's probably overstock on a single type of cryptocurrency mining GPU, not anything high end. With Bitcoin now at 1/3 of last year's high and still falling, it's no wonder that mining cards aren't a hot commodity.
     
  8. Doubtful.
     
  9. There is no difference in the GPU's. The only difference is in the drivers and the card which doesn't have headers for display. The card mfg are sending GPU's back, not entire cards.
     
  10. Inacurate

    Inacurate Limp Gawd

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    The mining market has a 'reach unknown' impact on the discrete GPU sector, clearly.
    That's the only solid fact in any of this.
     
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  11. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

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    This will probably go back and show up in OEMs.. nVidia will not drop prices under any circumstances. I think they will destroy inventory before that. They will also probably launch new card at extreme prices, in an attempt to protect current prices of current inventory... When and if mining collapses, we could really see cheap card, and I mean the used ones not new retail. I would aim for severely low prices in this used inventory. I mean severe, 50$ 1050s or 1060s and shit like that.
     
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  12. PeaKr

    PeaKr Gawd

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    Jensen better start buying gpu crypto's quick, fast and in a hurry.
     
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  13. Donald Bell

    Donald Bell Limp Gawd

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    It's Charlie, he is usually half-right, but leaves you to make assumptions that aren't true. Since nobody has actually mentioned what kind of chips we are talking about, I'm assuming it is laptop chips, specifically the mx130. I could be totally wrong, but that is my guess.
     
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  14. mkk

    mkk [H]Lite

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    Saved for Q418 restamping to 11x0 model(s).
     
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  15. demondrops

    demondrops Limp Gawd

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    ohwee.. didnt take long before i said crypto would flop until it did, and ppl scoffed at this and predicted infinite growth haha. i guess it didnt fully crash yet, but who knows. bitcoin is like pokemon GO at some point everyone is hyped into it and few months later its over, ppl still play it but. ppl are so easily controlled and manipulated into it, like idiots on spiritual stupidity pages on facebook who could tell us that bitcoin was the dawn of the new era, mind altering, life changing currency! just to fire up under the hype, they probably invested in bitcoins themselves. it could be a good time to buy bitcoin or the time of making insane profits could be over, it probably is. crypto is as lame as all other currencies.
     
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  16. I agree. I heard rumors of the new top end Voltas being $1600. NVIDIA is in protect bottom line mode. Can't blame them. But they can lick my lilly white tail if that's the pricing.

    I'm not investing in 2 year old tech for VR. That's like buying obsolesce. So I'll sit and wait till prices on next gen comes down.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 20, 2018
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  17. I wonder how the nintendo switch sales are going? There was no reason to expect a mass change of laptop discrete GPU's to change. So there's no reason for oversupply. The laptop market is pretty steady and predictable (even if in slow decline due to lack of advancements) due to business refreshes.
     
  18. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    They can label these "Special Founder's Edition" and sell them themselves. :D

    Not that they'd ever do it, but they should seriously just discount these. They'd still profit from selling them for less.
     
  19. Donald Bell

    Donald Bell Limp Gawd

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    The MX130 is a maxwell part that seems to be falling out of favor with current "new" laptops. I'm guessing that there isn't enough difference between AMD/Intel graphics and the mx130 to make it worth the trouble. Most entry level discrete graphics Nvidia laptops I'm seeing are mx150.
     
  20. Zion Halcyon

    Zion Halcyon 2[H]4U

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    Rofl at the mad rush to defend Nvidia here.
     
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  21. Discrete graphics for laptops is a small portion of the market. I still doubt it's the MX130. 300K units is too big a switch to say laptops alone (which are steady) Nintendo Switch maybe.

    NVIDIA said they were ramping up production to get cards in gamers hands. Looks like it might have bit them in the tail. That means it will likely never happen again no matter the shortage if this is true.
     
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  22. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I haven't read every post here, as I'm at work right now, and just skimming through, but from all the ones I did read, I'm not really seeing any evidence of your statement. In fact, my own post was a tongue-in-cheek jab at them. I'm one of those that enjoys NV products, don't have too much bad to say about them even with their track record, but what's to defend here? So they over-calculated stock requirements, and had to take a hit. Oh well. That's business.

    I guess, rofl at someone coming into an already balanced thread trying to stir shit up?
     
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  23. BSmith

    BSmith [H]ard|Gawd

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    Nice thing about public companies is we can wait until the next quarter's financials to see what is really going on.

    IF this story has any truth to it, NVidia will not be able to hide that kind of inventory fluctuation for long.
     
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  24. pfc_m_drake

    pfc_m_drake [H]ard|Gawd

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    Is it bad that I stopped reading at this point?
    I better go back and try harder.
     
  25. serial__thrilla

    serial__thrilla Limp Gawd

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    I'd buy 5-6 discounted nVidia 10-series cards. I need to finalize my Equahash/Lyra mining rig. Muahaha!:)
     
  26. Dekar12

    Dekar12 Gawd

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    Sounds like a bunch of low end chips. Which have been in stock pretty much the entire time, highly doubt this was anything high end that we have been seeing stock issues with.
     
  27. Stock inventory doesn't have to be reported. They do have to report on inventory write down though.
     
  28. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Depending on the discount, I'd probably buy a few as well, but for extra gaming machines. :D
     
  29. Dead Parrot

    Dead Parrot 2[H]4U

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    From the disclosure section of the Seeking Alpha article:
    Disclosure: I am/we are short NVDA.

    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: long amd, googl, bbby
     
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  30. Well that is about 1/2 the market. But considering everyone is used to nvidia releasing on a more regular cadence, they are likely holding out for next gen. (Miners and gamers like me alike)
     
  31. BSmith

    BSmith [H]ard|Gawd

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    Exactly. Like I said, these types of numbers are not going to be hidden long, if there is any truth to it.

    It also has a tendency to take a big chunk out of your net profits, if you do not adjust manufacturing to compensate for the inventory gain.

    There really is no way to hide this big of an inventory churn, for any meaningful time period.
     
  32. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

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    a flood of low end parts

    *YAWNS*
     
  33. odditory

    odditory [H]ardness Supreme

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    Ya think? Someone told someone told someone that an overzealous yet top3 board partner ignored all their channel data, ignored the obvious that the Q1 surge had tailed off, and overshot by (big round number) anyway despite their experience and time in the business. Meanwhile prices are still up and still healthy for them.

    Its FUD.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2018
  34. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Well that's what I heard anyway.

    :D
     
  35. Stoly

    Stoly [H]ardness Supreme

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    I can't remember the last time Charlie posted news about nvidia. Probably more than a year. :rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
  36. Kardonxt

    Kardonxt 2[H]4U

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    I find this hard to believe in the low end segment. Lowend cards are re-badged all the time. If it was really a problem Nvidia would reflash and repack the cards with a new model number and throw them back in the supply chain after they launch their next gen high end.
     
  37. James21

    James21 Limp Gawd

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    So all the gamers who were whining loud, long and all righteous about how Nvidia needed to make tons of video cards so they could have all they wanted & lower the prices back to MSRP because they are "loyal virtuous gamers"....
    So now all the cards you want, at prices lower than they have been for 8 months..... Whiners don't buy it seems...
     
  38. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Yes, the new "Founders Value Line"
     
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  39. renz496

    renz496 Limp Gawd

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    is there any problem with this anyway? it is not like nvidia in a rush to release something faster to the market because their competitor will have something cheaper and faster on the market anytime soon.
     
  40. nEo717

    nEo717 Limp Gawd

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    your comment prompted to check nvidia.com for stock... no Ti's currectly, 1080 and 1070 are in stock, 1060 out of stock (even Titan Xp are out of stock). Wonder which chips they are overstocked on, or, if this is a great leak to keep nvidia in the news :)

    My money is still on a the July 30 launch, with 1180 coming out at 1080 Ti current msrp.
     
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