Banana King
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What consoles does everyone expect will do the best through sales and customer satisfaction once the Wii and PS3 are released?
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Nintendo, Microsoft & Sony Deathmatch
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VoodooChi|d
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This belongs in the Console sub-forum.
When all is said and done... around 2010 I expect PS3 to have 40% of the market share... Xbox 360 to have around 33% and Wii to have 27%... MUCH closer than the last gen of PS2 dominance... but with Sony still out on top...
This is sure to turn into another flame fest though... but I think each console has something good that it offers and it's a good time to be a gamer... just not a cheap time
When all is said and done... around 2010 I expect PS3 to have 40% of the market share... Xbox 360 to have around 33% and Wii to have 27%... MUCH closer than the last gen of PS2 dominance... but with Sony still out on top...
This is sure to turn into another flame fest though... but I think each console has something good that it offers and it's a good time to be a gamer... just not a cheap time
VoodooChi|d said:This belongs in the Console sub-forum.
When all is said and done... around 2010 I expect PS3 to have 40% of the market share... Xbox 360 to have around 33% and Wii to have 27%... MUCH closer than the last gen of PS2 dominance... but with Sony still out on top...
This is sure to turn into another flame fest though... but I think each console has something good that it offers and it's a good time to be a gamer... just not a cheap time
I expect about the same, except for a closer match between the Xbox and Wii. I'd like to hope that the Wii will overtake the Xbox, but I'm just not optimistic enough. I'm definitely buying a Wii, but I think that once the general public starts using the Wiis, some bad impressions about the controllers will spring and dampen down some of the Wii enthusiasm. I'm sure the controller will be good enough for most, but there'll be people who will be irked by even small problems with it, and since the technology is still relatively new in this form, the sensor controls are probably going to have some issues.
I heard about direct sunlight messing with the Wii's response. Irrelevant to me since I wouldn't be playing with glare all over my TV anyway, but one of those small problems that will turn people off. The Leipzig conference video showed the Wii having sensitivity issues when too close to the sensor bar. This one does inconvenience me, since I was hoping to play off an external tuner plugged into my computer monitor. I'll just have to move to the living room instead.
MS has done a good job of buying up developers, unlocking games that were previously exclusives (GTA, Assasin's creed, etc), having a headstart, and some other advantages. Advantages over their previous attempt that is, because despite having bought a 360, I have to think ps3 will eventually outsell it, probably sooner than later. It will end up infinitely closer than the ps2 domination though I believe.
Even with the 360's almost year long head start I don't think that it is more desirable than the PS3. Seems like they have wasted away the year and really fo not have much to show for it. I can't see the the wii doing that great either. Nintendo makes really good games but how far can they carry the wii. The only downside to the ps3 is price, that is it's biggest problem and its price is the wildcard in this deathmatch.
Psychotext
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As you can see from my sig I'm going to be buying all three at one point or another. I think that the Nintendo is actually going to win this round, perhaps not by much but I think the price coupled with the fact that they're aiming it at non-gamers is going to make the difference. I'm thinking Nintendo, PS3, 360 in that order but it'll be close this time with all three doing well (though I doubt Sony will be happy).
Thing is, it's what we need to happen anyway. Any one player dominating this round will be really bad for customers in the long run.
Thing is, it's what we need to happen anyway. Any one player dominating this round will be really bad for customers in the long run.
Lord Nassirbannipal
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The price drop in Japan and the addition of an HDMI port to the core PS3 has basically negated any reason for most gamers to buy the premium version, and I think that Sony has enough of a fanbase and enough developer support to get away with the price difference. The Saturn was $200 more expensive than the N64 and still outsold it in Japan because it had more games that interested the Japanese. Virtua Fighter was one of them, and it's still the most popular fighting game in Japan, and the PS3 has this and will probably have all the Japanese-style RPG's exclusively in its camp, so while the PS3 will be behind for a while because there are less available, I think it will soon outsell the Wii once the yield problems go away.
Nintendo is looking to target non-gamers with the Wii, but if they do this, then those people are no longer non-gamers, so they probably won't stick with just a Wii and will most likely look to get a PS3/360 or even both. Nintendo's consoles are known mostly for first party titles, and those aren't going to be enough. In the past, games like Mario 64, Mario Kart 64 & DD, SSB & SSBM, Starfox, Donkey Kong, Kirby, etc, were unable to save the N64 from finishing last in Japan or the Gamecube from being outsold 10-1 by the PS2 or finishing last in North America and Europe. Nintendo also has the problem of being thought of as "for kids". It also seems to be banking on the Wiimote gimmick, so it'll be interesting to see how that turns out.
Microsoft is playing it safe, and as a result, it hasn't taken advantage of its headstart. 6-7 million is not going to be enough to hold of Sony and Nintendo. I think the biggest thing the 360 had going for it is that it was the only next-gen console on the market, but it won't have this anymore come next month, nor will it have the advantage of having the most powerful hardware or being the only one with a centralized online service.
The PS2 is still outselling all other consoles and to date has sold more than 100 million, and those people will most likely get a PS3 when they decide to upgrade, especially since it's backwards compatible with both the PS1 and PS2 libraries, allowing it to tap the install base. This is something that Nintendo and Microsoft can never equal, much as it applies to competition between the PSP and DS.
I do, however, agree with the status quo that this gen will be much closer. I'd say we're looking at somewhere in the ballpark of the PS3 at 45% and the Wii and 360 at 27.5% when it's all said and done.
I'm also wondering what Microsoft will do if the 360 fails to turn a profit and keeps losing money like the first Xbox did.
Nintendo is looking to target non-gamers with the Wii, but if they do this, then those people are no longer non-gamers, so they probably won't stick with just a Wii and will most likely look to get a PS3/360 or even both. Nintendo's consoles are known mostly for first party titles, and those aren't going to be enough. In the past, games like Mario 64, Mario Kart 64 & DD, SSB & SSBM, Starfox, Donkey Kong, Kirby, etc, were unable to save the N64 from finishing last in Japan or the Gamecube from being outsold 10-1 by the PS2 or finishing last in North America and Europe. Nintendo also has the problem of being thought of as "for kids". It also seems to be banking on the Wiimote gimmick, so it'll be interesting to see how that turns out.
Microsoft is playing it safe, and as a result, it hasn't taken advantage of its headstart. 6-7 million is not going to be enough to hold of Sony and Nintendo. I think the biggest thing the 360 had going for it is that it was the only next-gen console on the market, but it won't have this anymore come next month, nor will it have the advantage of having the most powerful hardware or being the only one with a centralized online service.
The PS2 is still outselling all other consoles and to date has sold more than 100 million, and those people will most likely get a PS3 when they decide to upgrade, especially since it's backwards compatible with both the PS1 and PS2 libraries, allowing it to tap the install base. This is something that Nintendo and Microsoft can never equal, much as it applies to competition between the PSP and DS.
I do, however, agree with the status quo that this gen will be much closer. I'd say we're looking at somewhere in the ballpark of the PS3 at 45% and the Wii and 360 at 27.5% when it's all said and done.
I'm also wondering what Microsoft will do if the 360 fails to turn a profit and keeps losing money like the first Xbox did.
RancidWAnnaRIot
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Doward said:Based on E3, I'm saying Nintendo wins by a long shot, Sony goes bankrupt, is bought out by Nintendo - then M$ and N clash big time over digital entertainment.
No matter what happens, we win
sony will never go bankrupt.. i think they will lose significant markshare.. but i really doubt they're going to pull a dream cast
RancidWAnnaRIot
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kelbear said:
that rumor has been shot down 10000s of times
VoodooChi|d
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That is ridiculous but whatever you want to think...Doward said:Based on E3, I'm saying Nintendo wins by a long shot, Sony goes bankrupt, is bought out by Nintendo - then M$ and N clash big time over digital entertainment.
No matter what happens, we win
Even if you THINK you want that to happen you really don't... having 3 companies competing is much better than having 2 and a lot of gamers are going to get all 3 systems because they each have something good to offer.
Everyone else: Let's try to keep this civil. Get off the minor "wii sunlight" comment. You are taking it out of context. Stay with the topic at hand.
RancidWAnnaRIot
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Martyr said:
QFT
The 360 has a solid user base and with the addition of a cheap ($199) HD-DVD the same day as the PS3 is released I they're going to prevail. $600 for the premium system is a lot and many people (like myself) are going to be spending money on the HD-DVD plus the Wii. I may get a PS3 to sell on ebay but not for myself.
I think market share will go like this after six months.
X360 - 1
PS3 - 2
Wii - 3
But I think the Wii/PS3 numbers will get closer as time goes on and more people buy the Wii.
I think market share will go like this after six months.
X360 - 1
PS3 - 2
Wii - 3
But I think the Wii/PS3 numbers will get closer as time goes on and more people buy the Wii.
Lord Nassirbannipal
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The SNES destroyed the Genesis in Japan, but it didn't become the top-selling console in North America until 1994, and it was never able to overtake the Genesis in Europe.
The SNES finished with 49 million units sold to the Genesis' 35 million, which is 58% market share, but that wasn't always the case, unlike the PS2, which had its huge market share throughout the entire generation excepting the brief period of time that it was behind the Dreamcast.
In closing, the SNES and Genisis each had 50% market share at peak whereas the N64 had 41%(due to its loss of third-party support), the PlayStation had 50%, and the Saturn had 9% at the peak of that particular generation, so the SNES-N64 to the PS2-PS3 comparison doesn't really hold up.
The SNES finished with 49 million units sold to the Genesis' 35 million, which is 58% market share, but that wasn't always the case, unlike the PS2, which had its huge market share throughout the entire generation excepting the brief period of time that it was behind the Dreamcast.
In closing, the SNES and Genisis each had 50% market share at peak whereas the N64 had 41%(due to its loss of third-party support), the PlayStation had 50%, and the Saturn had 9% at the peak of that particular generation, so the SNES-N64 to the PS2-PS3 comparison doesn't really hold up.
RancidWAnnaRIot
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Lord Nassirbannipal said:
sources?
Psychotext
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RancidWAnnaRIot said:
Most of that info can be found on Wikipedia.
Lord Nassirbannipal
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cb9fl said:
I doubt that the HD-DVD add-on is going to be a very big factor. Not a lot of people are going to want to pay $200 for an add-on(Sega CD/Sega 32X), especially when it's got nothing to do with gaming, and much less when you consider that most people didn't want to fork over 30 bucks for the dongle that allowed the Xbox to play DVD's.
When most people will buy the $500 PS3, which already has a next-gen disc player built into it, then $400 for a 360 plus $200 for an add-on makes it, in effect, more expensive.
The thing is, it's an HD-DVD player....for $200...if that's any indication, anyone who wants an HD-DVD player woud be extremely smart to go this route. If you already have an Xbox 360, that is. At any rate, it all comes out to the same price as a stand alone player, so it's an even sweeter deal in that case.Lord Nassirbannipal said:
Example: Joe Schmoe wants an HD-DVD player for Christmas. His son, little Johnny wants and Xbox 360. Joe Schmoe can go spend $599 on the 2nd gen HD-DVD player from Toshiba, or spend $599 on an Xbox 360 Premium PLUS the HD-DVD drive for himself.
It could be win-win for a lot of people.
Lord Nassirbannipal
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lesman said:
You can make the same case about PS3 and Blu-Ray, it just depends on which format the person wants.
And actually, the thing is, it's not an HD-DVD player for $200 bucks, it's an add-on for $200 bucks, and it only really matters to people who already have a 360, which is only about 6 million. If the PS3 is in greater demand, then for the vast majority that doesn't own any next-gen consoles, Joe Schmoe wants a next-gen disc drive and little Johnny wants a PS3, then it makes much more sense to go that way and spend just $500 than it does to spend $400 on a console and $200 for an add-on.
I agree that it will be something to look at for the people who already own a 360 and don't plan on getting a PS3, but most who do plan to get the PS3 will see the fact that it has a Blu-Ray player right out of the box as a better deal than having to pay even more for an add-on, which is what I'm surmising from the fact that people didn't even want to pay an extra $30 to watch DVD's on their Xboxes.
I'm sure that the PS3 will outsell the HD-DVD add-on, meaning that there will be many more Blu-Ray players in homes across the world, which makes the HD-DVD add-on quite irrelevant in the long run.
Lord Nassirbannipal said:
That may be. I, personally, like the fact that MS didn't unnecesarily throw it in the box to make us pay more. I like the "we gave people a choice" argument. because it makes a lot of sense.
The thing is, most people get separate components anyways. I can almost guarantee that the majority of people who bought a PS2 eventually bought a stand alone player, due to the PS2 one being underwhelming.
Sony has an agenda. That agenda is "buy our blu-ray player so that we may win the format war!". Sure, there's nothing wrong with making money.
But I like to think I had a choice in it all.
My situation is this: so far, reviews show that HHD-DVD's quality tops that of Blu-Ray. I am no doubt getting a PS3...I already have an Xbox 360...BUT...I was going to buy a separate HD-DVD player anyway.
Why spend $600 on that, though, when I can get an HD-DVD drive for $199?
But to each his own.
RancidWAnnaRIot
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Psychotext said:
i'm not so sure if i'd trust it.. but whatever
cb9fl said:
The PS3 can do what the Xbox 360 can with it's $500 system, all it is missing is wi-fi, but you can make a cheap $15 router a bridge to connect to wireless, so thats $515, with blu-ray, wi-fi, free online service, usb keyboard support, actual web browser, 20gb hard drive and etc.
Now let us break this down for the 360 to have the same thing:
Xbox 360 Premium: $400
HD-DVD: $200 (doesn't even have HDMI so you would be screwed once HD-DVD enables TCP)
Wi-Fi: $15 (same router logic)
Xbox Live: (Forget how much it is a month, but times that by 12)
Total: At least $700, PS3 total is $515.
LeviathanZERO
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Why dont you guys just google then. its not hard to find sources for history that actually happened. I've seen those numbers many many times, at many many places. Its not exactly hard to find that information.
Lord Nassirbannipal
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lesman said:
Good point.
True, and I was just going to bring this up.
DVD was established in America, but for a lot of people in Japan and Europe, the PS2 was their first DVD player, even if the quality wasn't really something to make you do cartwheels.
I agree, but Nintendo and Microsoft are also companies that just want your money and will push the envelope as far as they think they can in order to get your cash. I'm pretty sure that Microsoft would have thrown in an HD-DVD drive and charged $600 if they thought they could get away with it.
Lord Nassirbannipal said:
As others have mentioned, it's all about giving the customer a choice, a say in where there money goes. My buddy didn't have a DVD player when he bought his first xbox. The way he looked at it, was that he paid $300 for the console, which was the the accepted price for that generation, then got a DVD player for 30 bucks. Hard to beat that deal. I already had a DVD player, so I got the option to NOT pay 30 bones to make the xbox do something that I didn't really need it to do--play movies. If my dedicated DVD player went tits-up, I could spend $15 on a used xbox DVD adapter and be watching movies again on the cheap.
Same thing with Sony forcing their customers to adopt blu-ray. It could be a year before the new format war is settled. If HD-DVD wins the fight, what good is that fancy blu-ray drive going to do for PS3 owners? I doubt Sony will develop games that use a dead media technology just to keep PS3 owners happy.
I plan on getting a 360 when the price drops, or when refurb units become available. Later, if HD-DVD wins, I'll get the drive for the 360. Hell, it might be down to $150 by that time. If blu-ray wins, power to the PS3 peoples. I still didn't have to cough up $200 for losing technology just to play games on DVD9.
PikachuMan
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LeviathanZERO said:
Still, whenever you present something as factual, then you should include your sources. More so if you talk about numbers and statistics.
This is a good thing. It makes the BS'ers easier to identify.
VoodooChi|d
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This isn't an academic research paper... if you don't believe him look it up yourself... and keep the thread on topic.
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