Next-gen Xbox Speculation Summarized

[Terry Olaes]

There’s been a lot of speculation around Microsoft’s next version of the Xbox. Techradar took some of the rumors and summarized them nicely in this article. What do you think?

We look at whether the 'Xbox 720' will feature a return to Intel chips, the inclusion of a Blu-ray drive, and more storage than you can ever fill. ...The next question isn't necessarily 'what will the next Xbox look like?' but 'will there even be one?'

 

[SpeedRunner]

Better question... will it work? Like... actually function?

 

[markt435]

no kidding

 

[Freddo]

Don't remember the source, but I read some article somewhere that speculated that next-gen won't happen until 2015 or so, or maybe 2018! That both MS and Sony want 360 and PS3 to have a very long life cycle cause they invested so huge amount of money on them.

2018 doesn't sound particulary likely, though, but on the other hand, 2011 seems a bit too early to me.

 

[Chris_B]

I remember reading somewhere that microsoft were supposodly desigining their own cpu for the console. Near sure it came from an MS rep as well.

 

[One2The3]

Theres no way the 360 can last as long the PS3. The 360 uses DVD9 and since games will get more advanced as times goes on, a new Microsoft system will probably be available by 2010-2011. The PS3 will probably last until 2012 since it is currently using Blu Ray format. Either way its gonna be hella expensive (PS4) but will be the most cutting edge console just as it is now; not computer since computers' graphics are already better and the resolution is way more higher on PCs than consoles. The Wii I think was just made as a cash cow so Nintendo can use the money to make another console. I have a Wii and quite frankly its just not fun *for my needs anyways. Sure its got all the classics and I'm all down for those but its got pretty much zero quality third party support and the dated graphics and new peripherals don't make it better at all.

 

[RussianHAXOR]

Don't remember the source, but I read some article somewhere that speculated that next-gen won't happen until 2015 or so, or maybe 2018! That both MS and Sony want 360 and PS3 to have a very long life cycle cause they invested so huge amount of money on them.

2018 doesn't sound particulary likely, though, but on the other hand, 2011 seems a bit too early to me.

IF the timeline you're talking about is true then PC gaming will without a doubt trump consoles.

 

[Exavior]

I know that sony has said 8 - 10 years or something like that till the PS4, but i don't recall ever seeing Microsoft say anything like that.

As for the comments in the article about no new consoles ever. I find that one hard to believe. Sure Sony may not ever make any money to cover to cost of the PS3, but that just them. Microsoft and Nintendo aren't in that boat. Sony tried to add two much and screwed them selves over.That in no way means that consoles are no longer able to make money and that this is the last console generation we will ever see.

 

[FrgMstr]

Way out prediction. Box will be fully AMD. Chipset, GPU, and CPU(s). 2012. Just a guess out of my ass....

 

[epblash]

Pretty simple, really. The 360 right now carries almost the pinnacle of what's possible with rasterization, which is why ray-tracing has been getting a bit of press recently. I mean seriously, how much better are you going to get than Crysis, and Crytek's mentioned that it would be possible to port it to the 360. So while the 360 is not quite the best of rasterization, it's almost there, and it doesn't make much sense to release a brand new console and have people look at 360 Crysis and 720 Crysis side by side and say, "that's not much of a difference".

So, here's the laundry list:

1) Ray-tracing capabilities, especially because Intel is going at Larrabee right now. and subsequently, 1a) Intel processors
2) Terabyte-level storage and a higher level of emphasis on digital distribution of not just movies and music, but full-featured games (like what we have at retail right now, not just XBLA. Think Steam).
3) MAYBE a Blu-ray drive. By the time such a console comes around, we're not even sure if Blu-ray will be around, and it makes more sense to simply distribute everything over a pipe anyways.
2,3a) and by association, a massive digital distribution network over XBL.
4) x86 main processor, Microsoft has started along this path with the 360 by making it a hell of a lot easier for developers to port from the PC->360 rather than PC->PS3, and by going x86 they can make it as easy as just adapting the interfaces for the controller and adding XBL modules because the code will just run on both systems (remember, the whole point of consoles in the first place was that you knew what 100% of the systems running your games were, what their specs were, so you could code accordingly. So what if those specs were components you would ordinarily find in a PC?)

So yeah, basically take a PC, put a nice case on it, make a version of Windows that's got a console UI and you're looking at the 720.

 

[colinstu]

I don't think the next iteration of consoles will come soon, but I do think there will be some redesigns and other fixes.

MS and Sony will probably continue to shrink their chips/remove unnecessary components. I can't wait to see a 360 or PS3 Slim

 

[PRIME1]

It will be called......The Playstation 4

 

[Toytown]

We look at whether the 'Xbox 720'

Well one things for sure, MS wont be calling it the xbox 720, as it would confuse customers into thinking the machine can handle 720p only instead of 1080p which is what it will almost certainly do.

 

[NKDietrich]

Isn't it "next-next gen"? Since "next-gen" now refers to 2 year old consoles.

 

[TerranUp16]

Pretty simple, really. The 360 right now carries almost the pinnacle of what's possible with rasterization, which is why ray-tracing has been getting a bit of press recently. I mean seriously, how much better are you going to get than Crysis, and Crytek's mentioned that it would be possible to port it to the 360. So while the 360 is not quite the best of rasterization, it's almost there, and it doesn't make much sense to release a brand new console and have people look at 360 Crysis and 720 Crysis side by side and say, "that's not much of a difference".

Um... maybe they can port low settings... but given how much trouble the GTX 280 has with just High settings at a decent rez...

Anyway, even Crysis, despite it being the best-looking game around, has a lot of room for improvement. Hell, the Natural Mod alone (in more ways than one) shows that.

 

[akugami]

Nintendo, Sony & Microsoft is working on new consoles. I think Nintendo will keep the overall lead this generation but I don't believe it will be for more than roughly 50% of the market with PS3 at second place with 30% and the Xbox 360 at last with about 20%. There will be no 70-80% domination as enjoyed by the PS2 and the venerable NES.

Nintendo will likely be the first out of the gate with a new console. The simple fact remains that they are the weakest overall system this generation and while I personally do not believe it will affect them now or in the next year to year or so it will really start showing its age mid to late '09 as all the prettier games come out for both the Xbox 360 and PS3.

I can see a new Nintendo system either released or at the very least announced in 2011 for release in 2012. At this point, moving to a HD disc format for the larger storage as well as moving to a console that can do 1080p makes sense. Blue lasers and producing discs will have fallen drastically in cost (a major contributor to the cost of the PS3) and HDTV penetration will be much greater at that point as opposed to even today where most families are still using SDTV's. With technological advances, I can easily see a multi-core CPU as well as a GPU that is relatively inexpensive but will still surpass the power of the PS3 and 360. Ray Tracing is still not ready and I do believe that it still won't be ready in two to three years time when they are finalization designs on a new console.

The main feature should of course be increased control and if Nintendo wants to keep its lead, I think they will need to bring something else to the table besides waggle. Luckily Nintendo has a very good track record in developing new controlling methods dating back to the original NES. But this is the biggest question mark for the new Nintendo console.

The advantage is they will be the market leader going into the next generation of consoles but the negative would be they would have the most dated system power wise and that may be a negative as they can be perceived to be "gimped" systems. They won't need the most powerful console in the next gen but I think they will need to be the first out of the gate. Graphics are going to matter little since I think even the weakest system in 2011 or 2012 will be more than adequate for 99% of games.

One of the main differentiators of all three next gen consoles may be CPU power. I'm sure many of us have read about multi-core CPU's with differentiated cores similar to what Cell brings but with much more specialization. A note on Cell, I didn't think it was a bad idea. I just thought it was way too early for a CPU of this type. The cost in developing and manufacturing it was way too much considering the benefits. I think the next CPU developed for gaming will have one general all purpose core with a few specialized cores for stuff such as physics, maybe AI routines, etc.

For the Xbox 360. This one is tough, there wasn't a whole lot (besides the inadequate cooling causing red rings) that was truly wrong with the 360. I think they need better diversity in games. I know they tried wooing Japanese developers with games that appeal to a wider audience as well as to the gamers in Japan specifically but...I dunno...tough one to really point out where they truly went wrong. Maybe it's MS's image of producing a FPS centric console.

The overall increase in power should be similar to what is being done with Nintendo's next console. I think graphics are reaching a point of diminishing return and with all three next gen consoles they won't matter as much. Aside from claiming the biggest e-penis, Joe Consumer just won't see a difference and I think the graphics level in the PS3 is hitting that spot or quite close to it and the next gen of consoles will reach it.

Emphasis again I think will be on multi-core CPU's that contain specialized cores for different stuff. MS has a quite a few patents along with some for UI's and interacting and controlling electronic devices. They need to really wrack their brains because I think much like Nintendo's next console, the next Xbox and Playstation will need to emphasize controllers as a feature.

One of the major differences between Nintendo and MS is that MS will still seek to tie its computer OS's, web technologies, and games consoles to develop a hub that ties you into the MS family of products.

Sony hasn't really done anything wrong except their blunder with overdeveloping their console for little extra gain which has hurt them terribly. It didn't help their image nor help them sell console with the crap they were shoveling out to the public. I can't help but think how a scaled back, and drastically cheaper, PS3 which would still be slightly more powerful than the Xbox 360 but at similar price points would have let Sony take the lead in this generation's console race once again.

It's not fatal (yet) but Sony which was once thought to be invincible is hurt and hurt bad. This should serve as a warning to Nintendo if they want to keep the throne they recently won back after a decade of being dethroned by Sony.

Much like the Xbox, Sony wants to make the next Playstation a hub for all things Sony such as their music players, TV's, stereos, computers, etc. Much like the Xbox I'm still not sure an entertainment hub is the way to go but at least it is starting to make more sense and the technologies are starting to come together. So this may be a major battle between Sony and MS on who is the entertainment hub king. Nintendo will still focus on games exclusively.

Like Nintendo and MS, I think Sony needs to emphasize new controlling methods for games. The CPU & GPU front will likely be equalized and it will be your company image as well as game controllers that will differentiate your console.

Sony has a much bigger advantage in the games industry than MS and I do think that the battle for supremacy will be fought by those two.

 

[Freddo]

Isn't it "next-next gen"? Since "next-gen" now refers to 2 year old consoles.

2 year old consoles are current gen. Next-gen consoles stop being next-gen consoles the moment they are released for sale.

Also, the word "next-gen" was just the huge marketing word 2 years ago. Just like how every game ad back in the 90s had the word "cyber" or "interactive" in it.

 

[snaggletooth]

^^

that's nice, using some logic i agree with there, but the systems and games in this current generation are still referred to as 'next-gen' by many.

marketing to those who haven't yet bit at the hype, i guess.

 

[Nenu]

Well one things for sure, MS wont be calling it the xbox 720, as it would confuse customers into thinking the machine can handle 720p only instead of 1080p which is what it will almost certainly do.

Agreed, Xbox 720 is a daft name.

 

[Blazestorm]

Heh, wasn't the point of the Xbox 360's name because Originally the Wii was dubbed "Revolution"

1 Revolution is 360 degrees, and PS3 = 3rd Console

Instead of Xbox2 or something, they combined their competitor's console names into the Xbox 360?

So yea, Xbox 720 would be silly, but it'd be sillier if Microsoft keeps changing the name scheme.

Xbox 3? would make the 360 seem "bigger" but like the other guy said, 720 would make it seem like it can only put out 720p (Which... heh, the 360 can only do... upscaling to 1080p doesn't count -_-)

Meh. They'll figure it out... and I won't own one...

 

[NKDietrich]

2 year old consoles are current gen. Next-gen consoles stop being next-gen consoles the moment they are released for sale.

Also, the word "next-gen" was just the huge marketing word 2 years ago. Just like how every game ad back in the 90s had the word "cyber" or "interactive" in it.

Maybe in reality, but in the world of marketing game announcements refer to Xbox 360 and PS3 as "next gen consoles" still.

 

[TerranUp16]

Maybe in reality, but in the world of marketing game announcements refer to Xbox 360 and PS3 as "next gen consoles" still.

EA still internally refers to the 360/PS3 as "next-gen" and PS2/Xbox as "current gen".

 

[Hornet]

Pretty simple, really. The 360 right now carries almost the pinnacle of what's possible with rasterization, which is why ray-tracing has been getting a bit of press recently. I mean seriously, how much better are you going to get than Crysis, and Crytek's mentioned that it would be possible to port it to the 360. So while the 360 is not quite the best of rasterization, it's almost there, and it doesn't make much sense to release a brand new console and have people look at 360 Crysis and 720 Crysis side by side and say, "that's not much of a difference".

You have a good point there about the graphics.

I think it gives all the more reason for Sony and Microsoft to extend the lifespan of current console. They could be shooting themself in the foot if they release anything in the next few years before there's any new technology to allow a significantly better set of console.

Besides, the ever increasing cost of developing each new console would logically meant that each new console would have longer lifespan.

 

[Ur_Mom]

Also, the word "next-gen" was just the huge marketing word 2 years ago.

And with the release of every other system since the Sega Genesis (which was a next-gen machine back then) as well as every subsequent system released after that...

 

[swiftB3]

Pretty simple, really. The 360 right now carries almost the pinnacle of what's possible with rasterization, which is why ray-tracing has been getting a bit of press recently. I mean seriously, how much better are you going to get than Crysis, and Crytek's mentioned that it would be possible to port it to the 360. So while the 360 is not quite the best of rasterization, it's almost there, and it doesn't make much sense to release a brand new console and have people look at 360 Crysis and 720 Crysis side by side and say, "that's not much of a difference".

I agree with respect to the graphics levels. I would guess that ray-tracing / full-out physics processing is the way of the future for consoles.

OR

Maybe the new generation will have upgradeable parts (i.e. DVD upgrades to blu-ray, then whatever might come next, or better CPUs) -- all proprietary, of course. Oh wait, that would be a Mac.


j/k I know, I know

 

[TexasAg05]

Well one things for sure, MS wont be calling it the xbox 720, as it would confuse customers into thinking the machine can handle 720p only instead of 1080p which is what it will almost certainly do.

Ahem...don't you mean 4000p?

 

[TexasAg05]

Heh, wasn't the point of the Xbox 360's name because Originally the Wii was dubbed "Revolution"

1 Revolution is 360 degrees, and PS3 = 3rd Console

Stupid no-edit...and stupid me not reading all posts...

But isn't 'revolution' 180 degrees, in this context?

 

[TechieSooner]

The PS3 will probably last until 2012 since it is currently using Blu Ray format.

IMO both Sony and its fans are placing way too much in this single basket of the marvelous "BlueRay".
Once more- look at BetaMax. Obviously I have no idea what will happen: but very good chance it will end up the same way. You can argue until you're blue (haha) in the face, but the general public is quite happy with DVD, unless cost of BlueRay is VERY competitive. Unlike many, I'm not talking out of my ass on that one- go do some homework and talk to some folks about it.
I personally don't care if BlueRay lives or dies, but betting so much on it is never a good thing.


That said, I think the next Xbox needs not be too expensive. PCs are getting CHEAP. When you start talking about 8GB of RAM, 1TB hard drives, that's getting expensive... I realize actual hardware cost isn't that much, but look at the Elite for example: big money for big storage.

I still have yet to see anyone fully utilize the potential of either the 360 or PS3... But with games like Call of Duty 4, graphics are doing quite well, which is why I am in the same boat we won't see anything new really soon.

Software can obviously be changed and updated at any time, but for hardware I'd like to see USB ports, more RAM, CPU, and overall quieter systems.

 

[Enduring_Warrior]

Just..... Read.... This....Blog

http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com/

 

[450]

not that AMD can't build a really good gaming PC but do they do anything with consoles beyond the graphics chips for the one (I don't remember the exact one)?

Are you thinking of ATi's Gamecube GPU?

 

[Silus]

Heh, wasn't the point of the Xbox 360's name because Originally the Wii was dubbed "Revolution"

1 Revolution is 360 degrees, and PS3 = 3rd Console

Instead of Xbox2 or something, they combined their competitor's console names into the Xbox 360?

So yea, Xbox 720 would be silly, but it'd be sillier if Microsoft keeps changing the name scheme.

Xbox 3? would make the 360 seem "bigger" but like the other guy said, 720 would make it seem like it can only put out 720p (Which... heh, the 360 can only do... upscaling to 1080p doesn't count -_-)

Meh. They'll figure it out... and I won't own one...

1 revolution = 360 degrees ? And I thought 360 degrees would put you right back where you started...

 

[Draax]

1 revolution = 360 degrees ? And I thought 360 degrees would put you right back where you started...

lol wut?

 

[MH Knights]

Heh, wasn't the point of the Xbox 360's name because Originally the Wii was dubbed "Revolution"

1 Revolution is 360 degrees, and PS3 = 3rd Console

Instead of Xbox2 or something, they combined their competitor's console names into the Xbox 360?

So yea, Xbox 720 would be silly, but it'd be sillier if Microsoft keeps changing the name scheme.

Xbox 3? would make the 360 seem "bigger" but like the other guy said, 720 would make it seem like it can only put out 720p (Which... heh, the 360 can only do... upscaling to 1080p doesn't count -_-)

Meh. They'll figure it out... and I won't own one...

The reason MS didn't call the 360 "XBox 2" was because Joe Consumer would think it was inferior to the "Playstation 3." Personally I think MS should not have any numbers in the name of the third gen Xbox.

As for the hardware specs I think both MS and Sony will follow Nintendo's lead and create smaller more efficient systems rather than power hungry eye candy monsters. Both companies lost way to much money on this generation and are not going to do that again.

Next-gen systems will still have optical drives as NA does not have the bandwidth to go with digital distrobution only. Though they could do something where the HDD is removable, you go to Best Buy, buy the game, and have the game data transfered to the HDD. Yeah there are security issues to be worked out though.

 

[daragon]

What credibility does the President of Crytek have in the video game arena? He's a moron trying to edge his way into gaming and turn it into a big money business. I honestly consider anything he says as him jockeying for credibility so he has somewhere else to go when Crytek goes down in flames. Now, all that aside, I don't really care about the "Next" generation of consoles at this point. If it's a little over 2 years away, then they are still in the "What do we want this thing to do" phase and any talk is just speculation.

 

[TechieSooner]

^^^ yep.

I think it's clear, after the Wii came on stage, folks LOVED being able to play a console like that. Granted- it isn't really the Xbox's market, but folks are loving this new interface.

My question is what will be the next interface? Surely Microsoft can come up with something, but I have zero ideas, other than improving responsiveness, etc on current accelerometer technology.
Even Nintendo, the Wii 2 needs to improve on SOMETHING other than graphics. The Wii proved folks don't care about graphics that much, but rather gameplay, so it's got to improve SOMEWHERE. Same goes for Xbox, it isn't just about Graphics anymore.

 

[pigpen]

Most people could care less about Bluray now, and it's a brand new technology. Why would it get more important in 4 years? I know DVD took a while to hit the mainstream, but people were still excited about it even though they were waiting for prices to come down. Bluray is definitely lacking that excitement.

 

[Tokamak]

Speaking of "current gen" vs "next gen" has the PS3 outsold the PS2 in any particular quarter yet? I find it amusing that people are talking about the next next gen when the next gen isn't even outselling the current gen.

 

[Clockworks]

neXbox

 

[Valset]

Are you thinking of ATi's Gamecube GPU?

no I think one of the big three consoles use ATI graphics chips, 1950? I can't remember

 

[Dark Shade]

^^^ yep.

I think it's clear, after the Wii came on stage, folks LOVED being able to play a console like that. Granted- it isn't really the Xbox's market, but folks are loving this new interface.

My question is what will be the next interface? Surely Microsoft can come up with something, but I have zero ideas, other than improving responsiveness, etc on current accelerometer technology.
Even Nintendo, the Wii 2 needs to improve on SOMETHING other than graphics. The Wii proved folks don't care about graphics that much, but rather gameplay, so it's got to improve SOMEWHERE. Same goes for Xbox, it isn't just about Graphics anymore.

I personally think, as a Wii owner, the only thing they could have done better with this Wii (and the next gen Nintendo console) is better third-party support (top-tier games from SquareEnix, Capcom, etc.) and hardware graphical improvements (1080p support, Blu-Ray or whatever is high end disc media at the time)