Microsoft Has iPhone Coffin Parade?

heatlesssun said:
And hey if it did work for you then it didn't work for you and you got a Droid. Awesome, glad you had the choice. For whatever reason you are now arguing against choice. :confused:
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I'm not arguing against choice - WP7 brings nothing new over Android. The choice already exists. I'm arguing against wasting resources making a premature clone of an already developed choice, when MS could use the money to further improve any number of excellent products they already do well.
 
aw sad. i like my original iphone and will be sad when it dies in a few months. :(

wish i had know about the parade, i would have gone. redmond is just across the lake from me.
 
computerpro3 said:
I'm just going to respond to your own posts by quoting you from now on. You're doing all the work for me.
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Huh?:confused: All I said is that W7 Phone is coming in a few weeks. FACT. There's tons of videos and previews out there and the development tools and emulator have been out have been out for months in beta, we know pretty much what W7 Phone looks like. FACT.

W7 Phone is dead. Maybe true but not a fact since it's not been released. ;)
 
heatlesssun said:
Huh?:confused: All I said is that W7 Phone is coming in a few weeks. FACT. There's tons of videos and previews out there and the development tools and emulator have been out have been out for months in beta, we know pretty much what W7 Phone looks like. FACT.

W7 Phone is dead. Maybe true but not a fact since it's not been released. ;)
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While i don't think that anyone can say factually whether or not win7 is going to flop or not, the chances of Microsoft getting everything right out of the gate is slim. Not saying that its impossible but Microsoft has never gotten a product right on first try. So what are the chances of that happening this time? I just don't see that happening.
 
kac77 said:
While i don't think that anyone can say factually whether or not win7 is going to flop or not, the chances of Microsoft getting everything right out of the gate is slim. Not saying that its impossible but Microsoft has never gotten a product right on first try. So what are the chances of that happening this time? I just don't see that happening.
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The phone doing well is not the same thing as getting everything right cause nobody has done that, iPhone 4 anyone? Shit happens. The question is will they get ENOUGH right and at this point I think so.

This is a HUGE market, it can support a dozen OSes I think and Microsoft isn't going anywhere.
 
heatlesssun said:
The phone doing well is not the same thing as getting everything right cause nobody has done that, iPhone 4 anyone? Shit happens. The question is will they get ENOUGH right and at this point I think so. .
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No, that's not the question. Once again, you're assuming everyone views Microsoft in the same light that you do. The question isn't whether Microsoft can get enough right to field a competent entry in the segment. Just as you are, I'm sure they will.

The question is, can Microsoft field a phone that is so good, polished, unique, and lust-worthy that it can overcome massive anti-Microsoft sentiment among lay people, an illogical and undying devotion towards everything iPhone, a horrible track record in the modern mobile OS space, even worse mis-branding and mis-management, and massively lacking features, applications, and developers compared to the other top three phone operating systems.

And taking that bet, my friend, would be incredibly foolish.
 
And again, you've still not answered me:

Who on earth is going to buy this in it's first iteration when lined up against the iPhone 4 and phones like the Evo and Incredible? Can you even give me one reason why besides people who like the Zune player, which is like .00000000001% marketshare compared to the iPod?
 
computerpro3 said:
And again, you've still not answered me:

Who on earth is going to buy this in it's first iteration when lined up against the iPhone 4 and phones like the Evo and Incredible? Can you even give me one reason why besides people who like the Zune player, which is like .00000000001% marketshare compared to the iPod?
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I thought I've answered it several times. First a market this size can handle a DOZEN players, I simply don't see how iPhones and Androids can satisfy everyone. Secondly and this was your point, status symbol, it'll be the newest and slickest thing out there, that draws people to phones. I do think that Zune and the gaming with the XBox label on it will be a big draw as well, particularly Zune Pass people will help drive early sales. I have no idea how many Zune Pass subscribers there are but I'd say that they aren't rare.

I never said that this will be enough but I just don't see any reason why this phone won't launch sucessfully especially if Microsoft really does poor a billion into marketing.

Once again I have no idea why you are rooting AGAINST choice. Do you just want a few phone choices? Hell I'd like to see webOS phones do well because the more choices out there the better and cheaper this stuff will be.
 
heatlesssun said:
The phone doing well is not the same thing as getting everything right cause nobody has done that, iPhone 4 anyone? Shit happens. The question is will they get ENOUGH right and at this point I think so.
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If they went in with that mindset they are doomed. Think about it. Android and the iPhone basically went above and beyond what was currently available. Both of them made BB's damn near unnecessary and Nokia lose it's CEO. There wasn't a "just enough" attitude about them at all. Apple brought the gui and design while Android matched that and brought multitasking and a level of customization that rivals anything that I've seen. If MS hits just south of those two who is really going to buy it intentionally? As a power user of phones, why would I pick something that's less than what's available along with a 2 year contract or $500 retail price? I'm not and most people if they had an iPhone or Android aren't either. New users maybe who don't know. any better might buy it. But that's not a good place to be.

heatlesssun said:
This is a HUGE market, it can support a dozen OSes I think and Microsoft isn't going anywhere.
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Yes its a huge market. However MS does not have a good track record of entering new markets on the first try. This will be it's 7th attempt (more if you include point releases). They will be around for sure. This is a market they can't ignore. However, there's a difference between being around and being successful.
 
kac77 said:
Yes its a huge market. However MS does not have a good track record of entering new markets on the first try. This will be it's 7th attempt (more if you include point releases). They will be around for sure. This is a market they can't ignore. However, there's a difference between being around and being successful.
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How do you define sucess? Microsoft has made plenty of money in this space, more than Google for sure though I know Google gets it in other ways.

Bottom line, this phone will have a sucessful launch and will sell well simply because it is new and slick and has some unique feautres. Beyond that I haven't a clue.
 
I'm giving Windows Phone 7 hope for neither success nor failure, as the market needs to remain competitive so better and better technology for people can be readily available. Phone 7 as a platform, however, will likely be overly irrelevant in those terms at launch because of what already exists (and is evolving, no less!), its unique features are either esoteric, incomplete, or irrelevant, and the fact that it remains ambiguous who exactly the platform fits.

Firstly, elaborating on the existing market, there's two very clear and mature smartphone platforms Phone 7 will be directly compared to, given Microsoft's general approach; obviously these are iOS and Android. The reasons for this are that Microsoft most closely models Apple's curated App Store in regards to general content control and 3rd-party feature delivery and Google's "open hardware" approach as a means of penetration and providing of more consumer selection across hardware, exclusively. Therefore, consumers considering Phone 7 will make two major, overall comparisons: Phone 7 vs iOS and Phone 7 vs Android. iOS, against Phone 7's launch, already delivers a far more recognizable and mature feature set. Some examples include a working compass, the very large and known App Store, and a predictable experience on devices. Android itself deals a few blows to Phone 7 in that it already has several device manufacturer's adoption, a more mature Marketplace (even if less so than iOS), and an ability for customization that neither phone easily has. Against both, Phone 7 doesn't deliver more than one default search engine (Bing), copy/paste, access to sockets (bye-bye Skype, etc), VPN support, 3rd-party multitasking, no tethering ability, or even a modern browser supporting HTML5, Silverlight, or Flash (it being a derivative of IE7). How in the world will web-based video viewing be possible without a dedicated application? Will web developers be pleased with Microsoft doing this in the face of 90% of the market using some flavor of WebKit?

Secondly, Phone 7's unique features either don't address a major existing demand, they're incomplete, or they will probably remain largely irrelevant. Xbox Live is an interesting feature that deserves evaluation next to its estimated (by Microsoft's reckoning) demand. Having over 20 million Xbox subscribers is helpful, sure, but many questions linger. What portion of them use smartphones? What about smartphone newcomers? Is there a reason to really switch, or adopt (see first point)? In other words, what will value will XBox Live integration bring next to what's expected on a smartphone? What about those that aren't even interested in smartphones? Suddenly, that 20 million doesn't sound like a silver bullet. A couple examples of incomplete (potentially or outright) features are the non-working compass (the API is incomplete due to rushed development) and the Office hub not inheriting any rights-management features (enterprise, I imagine, would like this). Ah, wouldn't copy/paste have been useful, after all? Did MS not consider this while building the Office hub? Zune Pass integration is something that I don't feel many people migrating to Phone 7 would be terribly interested in, for a couple of reasons. It requires yet another subscription on top of cellular data plans and contracts and the subscriber library is only a subset of what Zune offers, which altogether is a subset of what the likes of iTunes offers.

Lastly, it's pretty murky about who would really benefit most from the combination of features offered by Phone 7, while somehow ignoring its limitations. Clearly, the enterprise is out due to no VPN support, no Windows Rights Management services (who can edit these Office docs?), no tethering, and no enforced security policies. That's leaves consumers, most of which will have made their minds up, reasonably settling on iOS or Android, for reasons found in my first point. So, that leaves those that prefer an exclusively Microsoft experience, or those that will somehow appreciate the limited platform while paying the same cellular data rates found on superior devices. These people, I imagine, are few and far between.

In conclusion, when Phone 7 launches, there will be many more clear, substantive reasons to exclusively consider iOS vs Android than there are to give a second look at the newcomer to the market. These are drawn from existing platform states and their ongoing evolution, Phone 7's unique features not delivering appropriate relative value, and that the estimated target audience for success is vastly unclear and totally underwhelming when best defined in Microsoft's favor. I also define success for a platform as making significant enough market penetration against existing forces to afford its own ongoing sustenance and evolution, all leading to a more competitive market for everybody. Is there anything tangible about Phone 7 to compel improvement from any other player?

Consumers faced with expensive cellular data plans will logically want the most device out of their dollars, as the Kin demonstrated. Windows Phone 7 will not answer that call.
 
computerpro3 said:
I'm not arguing against choice - WP7 brings nothing new over Android. The choice already exists. I'm arguing against wasting resources making a premature clone of an already developed choice, when MS could use the money to further improve any number of excellent products they already do well.
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So we should just use Android or iPhone because Android and iPhone already do everything? So why use Mac OS X or Linux on a desktop? Windowsmalready does everything they do and more right?
 
heatlesssun said:
So we should just use Android or iPhone because Android and iPhone already do everything? So why use Mac OS X or Linux on a desktop? Windows already does everything they do and more right?
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No it doesn't. Try running aircrack -ng on a windows machine. It's a fucking nightmare - people won't even write drivers for the majority of wireless NIC's, but it takes 10 seconds in linux/unix. Plus, linux is far more suited to being customized for businesses. We run a customized flavor of linux at our company that has been closely integrated with our software in a way that windows never could be.

There are plenty of viable reasons to use Mac or Linux on a desktop, and you know it. Not so for Windows Phone 7.
 
computerpro3 said:
No it doesn't. Try running aircrack -ng on a windows machine. It's a fucking nightmare - people won't even write drivers for the majority of wireless NIC's, but it takes 10 seconds in linux/unix. Plus, linux is far more suited to being customized for businesses. We run a customized flavor of linux at our company that has been closely integrated with our software in a way that windows never could be.

There are plenty of viable reasons to use Mac or Linux on a desktop, and you know it. Not so for Windows Phone 7.
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Zune Pass? Plus W7 Phone uses much different development tools and environment that uses .Net. I can take existing Windows code and a lot of it will run as is.

To say that that Android does everything already simply isn't true and over time the differences will grow and you know that.
 
You keep talking as if Zune actually matters. Some hard numbers:

In January, 2009 Microsoft's quarterly earnings filing with the SEC indicated that Zune sales had fallen $100 million from 2007 to 2008 during the fourth quarter of the calendar year. The Wall Street Journal estimated that sales appear to have dropped from about $185 million during the holiday period in 2007 to just $85 million in 2008.
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Zune market share decreased to 2% in the first half of 2009, according to the NPD Group
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So, 2% of the MP3 market is willing to buy a Microsoft MP3 player, and that number is shrinking more and more every day. Now, what percentage of that population is willing to buy a new $200 device that offers less functionality than an iPhone and Android phone, has less storage then their zune, and has worse battery life then their Zune?

Like maybe four people?

And as to your point about the development tools, well, that's great. But nobody is going to develop for a platform where there are no users. Well, except you.
 
computerpro3 said:
You keep talking as if Zune actually matters. Some hard numbers:





So, 2% of the MP3 market is willing to buy a Microsoft MP3 player, and that number is shrinking more and more every day. Now, what percentage of that population is willing to buy a new $200 device that offers less functionality than an iPhone and Android phone, has less storage then their zune, and has worse battery life then their Zune?

Like maybe four people?

And as to your point about the development tools, well, that's great. But nobody is going to develop for a platform where there are no users. Well, except you.
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I said Zune Pass (and I think that's actually growing, it's not counted into these numbers, you don't need a Zune for Zune Pass BTW) and it looks as though Microsoft is coming out with a Zune HD2: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-zune-hd2-more-than-just-a-rumor/7364?tag=nl.e539

Your argument keeps shifting. First it's everything that a W7 Phone can do is already done by Android now it's Zune doesn't matter because of low market share when I'm actually talking more about Zune Pass and your numbers are from H1 2009 BEFORE the HD and you bought up stuff like aircrack -ng which I imagine has pretty low usuage even compared to Zune and Zune Pass.

You simply don't like choice at least when it comes to alternatives to Android. That's fine but most people would rather have more options than fewer.;)
 
Look, I could tell you the sky is blue and you're still going to argue. It's fine, I get it. You've said many times who your whole life is owed to Microsoft.

Thus, I'm simply going to revisit this thread in six months when the first article comes out about poor Windows Phone 7 adoption and post "I told you so".
 
computerpro3 said:
Look, I could tell you the sky is blue and you're still going to argue. It's fine, I get it. You've said many times who your whole life is owed to Microsoft.

Thus, I'm simply going to revisit this thread in six months when the first article comes out about poor Windows Phone 7 adoption and post "I told you so".
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Not at all. Firstly the sky is blue. Secondly I agreed with you when you said phones are status symbols and then for some bizzare reason you started to argue against your own point. Finally you may very well be right, W7 Phone could be a flop, all I said is that I think it will launch well because of the point you made, the status symbol idea. The latest and great smart phone that's not an iPhone or Android, that's going to draw attention ESPECIALLY is Microsoft pours 1 billion bucks into marketing. I've said many times I had no idea about it long term prospects other than even if W7 Phone you can bet your life that there'll be a Windows 8 Phone no matter what.

Doesn't get anymore logical than this.;)
 
That last point was even if W7 is a FLOP that you can bet your life that there will be a Windows 8 Phone.
 
blisstik said:
Oh man, the funeral must have been ordered by Bill when he saw this on E this morning. LOL!

facetime-windows-mac-2.jpg
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looks kinda like tony hawk
 
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