Memory Prices Are Coming Back Down to Earth

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by AlphaAtlas, Dec 27, 2018.

  1. AlphaAtlas

    AlphaAtlas [H]ard|Gawd Staff Member

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    As many of you already know, early 2018 was a bad time to build a new PC. The price of new DDR4 was offensively high about a year ago, and the recent cryptocurrency craze didn't help video card prices either. Media outlets and research firms like DramXchange and Digitimes have been prophesizing lower prices for some time, but their numbers are largely focused on bulk shipments to OEMs, which doesn't necessarily translate to lower prices for enthusiasts. However, PCPartPicker indexes PC part list prices from a large variety of U.S. retailers, and they maintain historical price charts for various components.

    According to their latest charts, 4x4GB DDR4-3000 kit prices are finally coming down to mid-2017 levels, and other kits are following similar trends. Meanwhile, SSD prices are dropping like a rock, and video cards like the GTX 1070 and Vega 56 are slowly coming back down to their mid-2017 prices, while the RX 580 has already dropped to well below its launch price.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
  2. arnemetis

    arnemetis 2[H]4U

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  3. deton8

    deton8 Limp Gawd

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    OMG, are you telling me I'm finally going to be able to build a complete system next year?
     
  4. Armenius

    Armenius I Drive Myself to the [H]ospital

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    The 32GB kit I'm eyeing for my next build is still $400, or twice as much as what I paid for the 32GB DDR3 in my current system.
     
  5. RealBeast

    RealBeast Gawd

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    I convinced myself that I could live with a 32GB pair of G.Skill CL16 3000MHz from Newegg that I got a couple weeks ago for $179 due to a sale and some odd free $50 off coupon they sent.
    You could have built one in 2018 for just a kidney and an eye, next it'll only cost a kidney. ;)
     
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  6. capt_cope

    capt_cope Gawd

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    Back to Earth you say? Call me when I can buy this kit for $200, because that's what I paid for it about 2 years ago.
     
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  7. deton8

    deton8 Limp Gawd

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    My car already takes kidneys at the pump, I can only afford so much.
     
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  8. Caeden

    Caeden n00b

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    Ya, the current prices still seem outrageous to me. ~2 years ago I bought 16GB of DDR3 for $75. DDR4 isn't much better, so I am not sure why $200 for 16GB is something to be happy about.
     
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  9. M76

    M76 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    That is why I finally managed to upgrade to the 32GB. I originally thought I would wait a few months after I did my current build 2 years ago.
     
  10. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

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    I dunno, I guess I don't see how these prices are so astronomical......when I bought my system 4 years ago I got DDR4 16GB 2400 for $287.......that was high. This isn't that bad, the prices rose yes, but they weren't at the prices of first release.
     
  11. Joust

    Joust 2[H]4U

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    Gas prices at the pump are quite low compared to a few years ago. About half, here.
     
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  12. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

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    But he never said kind of car he drives......it could be a Ford F350 duely with a 40 gallon gas tank. ;)
     
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  13. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    They are trending in the right direction, but they are nowhere near where they should be yet.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
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  14. THUMPer

    THUMPer 2[H]4U

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    I only buy samsung B-die. hah
     
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  15. Armenius

    Armenius I Drive Myself to the [H]ospital

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    DDR4 was literally brand new 4 years ago.
     
  16. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

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    Right, and they aren't as high as that price. So if its lower than that I wouldn't say its astronomical. I do agree they are pretty high though. If it reached back to those prices then I would be concerned.
     
  17. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    Here are all the times I've bought RAM in ~ the last 10 years from Newegg and Amazon:

    08/21/2018: Team T-Force DARK Pro 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3466 (PC4 27700) $199.99 ($12.49 per GB)
    03/26/2017: Crucial 8GB Kit (4GBx2) DDR4-2133 MT/s CL15 SR x8 Unbuffered DIMM (PC4-17000) $55.49 ($6.93 per GB)
    07/14/2015: G.SKILL Ripjaws X Series 32GB (4 x 8GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1866 (PC3 14900) $204.99 ($6.37 per GB)
    10/16/2012: GeIL EVO Leggara Series 16GB (2 x 8GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1866 (PC3 14900) $94.98 ($5.93 per GB)
    08/07/2012: CORSAIR DOMINATOR GT 8GB (2 x 4GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 2000 (PC3 16000) $84.99 ($10.62 per GB)
    02/13/2012: G.SKILL Ripjaws Series 4GB 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1600 (PC3 12800) $24.99 ($6.24 per GB)
    12/15/2011: CORSAIR Vengeance 8GB (2 x 4GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1600 (PC3 12800) $39.99 ($4.99 per GB)
    10/21/2011: G.SKILL Ripjaws Series 4GB 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1600 (PC3 12800) $26.99 ($6.74 per GB)
    06/22/2011: CORSAIR DOMINATOR GT 8GB (2 x 4GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 2000 (PC3 16000) $189.99 ($23.75 per GB)
    12/01/2010: G.SKILL Ripjaws Series 4GB 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1333 (PC3 10666) $54.99 ($13.75)
    07/30/2010: G.SKILL Ripjaws Series 8GB (2 x 4GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1333 (PC3 10666) $189.99 ($23.75 per GB)
    07/24/2009: OCZ Gold 6GB (3 x 2GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 1600 (PC3 12800) $99.99 ($16.67 per GB)

    So here's the deal. For basic (not fancy overclock ram) in the DDR3 era, my expectation would have been to pay ~$6 per GB. Except for a blip in 2010 and early 2011 that's pretty much what we see, once I remove the outliers (that Corsair Dominator DDR3-2000 RAM was a mistake, overpriced and came with stupid ram cooler fans)

    In generalk these things should go down with time. In 2012-2015 when $6 per GB was the norm for basic RAM an the normal memory stick was also either 4GB or 8GB.

    Since then chip density has improved, each chip on a stick of RAM contains more ram, and the normal memory stick is 8GB or 16GB today, double what it was then.

    With the expectation that technology always gets cheaper with time, and the density improvements shown, we should be paying ~$3 per GB for basic RAM today.

    So, anything more than $24 for an 8GB kit, or $48 for a 16GB kit (for basic non-OC RAM) is a ripoff. This is where the pricing needs to get down to. These $159 for a 2x8 16GB kit may be cheaper than it has been recently, but it still costs more than 3x as much as it should.
     
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  18. Joust

    Joust 2[H]4U

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    As a driver of an F250 diesel, I get it. It still cost me less per mile by a large bit than in 2008-2015.

    That being said, I'm sitting on a well-priced 970 pro nvme and I'm reluctant to jump, since the prices have been so steadily going down. Rapidly, too.
     
  19. jimbob200521

    jimbob200521 Limp Gawd

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    I for one am glad the prices are coming back to sane levels, now I can finally upgrade from 32gb and can begin to enjoy Chrome and Minecraft at the same time again!
     
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  20. Joust

    Joust 2[H]4U

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    Your memory, she has a leak!
     
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  21. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Bah, thats nothing. I remember paying $200 for 256mb's of PC-100 back in the day. :oldman:
     
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  22. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Just paid $1.74 a gallon, pegged the gas tank on my little Hyundai for $12 after running it to almost empty.
     
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  23. ashmelev75

    ashmelev75 [H]ard|Gawd

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    My last memory purchase was Crucial Ballistix Tactical 16GB DDR3 PC3-12800) CL8 for $53.10 back in April 2014. It was a price mistake but Amazon did ship anyway.
    So far my PC works just fine, should be good enough for another year or two, but there's no way DDR4 prices would go that low any time soon.
     
  24. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    As do I, but there is an expectation that tech comes down in price over time as volume production increases. DDR4 has been around for a long time now (4 years?) We should bein volume production. The per GB price should be half today for DDR4 compared to what it was in 2011-2012 for DDR3.

    At $3-$4 per GB, which is where the price should be for DDR4 depending on clocks and CL that should cost at most $128, not $380.
     
  25. Joust

    Joust 2[H]4U

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    Eh. I think your estimate is too low. I'm not sure production cost of ddr4 is properly compared with ddr3.

    Additionally, add 2.5% inflation every year.

    Meh.
     
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  26. KazeoHin

    KazeoHin [H]ardness Supreme

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    RAM prices still aren't as good as they were in 2014...
     
  27. A Little Teapot

    A Little Teapot Limp Gawd

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    Everything is overpriced at the moment. Motherboards, CPU's, memory, graphics cards. All of it. The only parts that are reasonably priced are SSD's.
     
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  28. steakman1971

    steakman1971 2[H]4U

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    My current rig as 16gb ram (ddr3). It was more than I needed when I built it - but have never regretted having it. My next rig might start off with 16, but I see 32 or maybe even 64 in the future. Let's get those prices down.
     
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  29. Ranulfo

    Ranulfo [H]ard|Gawd

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    I picked up 16gb 3000mhz DDR4 around black friday for $89 on sale so there are some deals out there.
     
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  30. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

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  31. InorganicMatter

    InorganicMatter [H]ardForum Junkie

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    "Coming Back Down to Earth" is really a terrible way to look at it. Yes, DDR4 finally costs the same it did at launch.

    A better way to look at things: DDR4 is four year old tech and still selling for the same price it did at launch, thanks to market manipulation.
     
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  32. Uncle

    Uncle 2[H]4U

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    In a few months a Headline will read. "Memory makers charged with price fixing", same as a few years ago.
    Memory Makers Plead Guilty to Price Fixing - The New York Times
    DRAM makers sued (yet again) for 'fixing prices' (yet again) of chips ...
    The trouble is the penalty doesn't fit the crime, so for us consumers, this problem keeps getting recycled every few years.
     
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  33. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

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    That's the problem with these fines. They are smaller than what companies can benefit by violating the law, so the fine becomes just a cost of doing business.

    IMHO, the minimum fine for any violation, civil or criminal, which has any financial implication should be the amount gained by the violation. After that add a multiplier based on how egregious it was.
     
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  34. Uncle

    Uncle 2[H]4U

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    Punitive damage as in civil cases could help. Punitive damage"Since the 1970s, punitive damages have been criticized by U.S. business and insurance groups which allege that exorbitant punitive damage awards have driven up the cost of doing business." I for one would like to see board members of Corporations held personally accountable . This would illuminate 90% of the problems we now face.
     
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  35. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

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    I know what you are saying but, the only problem i see in the purchasing of RAM is that they aren't that similar in kits purchased.
    08/21/2018: Team T-Force DARK Pro 16GB (2 x 8GB) 288-Pin DDR4 SDRAM DDR4 3466 (PC4 27700) $199.99 ($12.49 per GB)
    03/26/2017: Crucial 8GB Kit (4GBx2) DDR4-2133 MT/s CL15 SR x8 Unbuffered DIMM (PC4-17000) $55.49 ($6.93 per GB)

    These two kits are pretty different. The one is 2133 and the other is 3466. You definitely will pay a premium on the faster dimms because they are manufactured to have the increased speed. The true analysis would be to compare prices on the same kit or very similar kit to determine where the prices fall. I think they are a bit high just not nearly as high as launch. I bought my 16GB kit in 2014 and it was $287. I guess in my mind astronomical prices would be at launch price or higher. I'm not arguing that the prices shouldn't be falling but i'm not complaining either. The cheaper the better. ;)
     
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  36. El Derpo

    El Derpo Limp Gawd

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    Yeah ... was upgrading a rig for a buddy of mine and the RAM prices were mind-boggling so I told him to wait. Seems like that was the right choice.
     
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  37. PCMusicGuy

    PCMusicGuy [H]ard|Gawd

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    Yes. Still too expensive though. If there is a price fixing scheme, the CEOs, CFOs, or anyone involved need to see jail time, not a monetary fine.
     
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