mem prices

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[H]ard|Gawd
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I realize it was announced that mem prices would rise due to shortage due to cell phones but cell phones use a much smaller casing than PC sticks so why the increase in PC prices, I mean, is it the same mem chip in a larger case compared to cell phone mem?

Also, DDR3 has not changed in price much so are they using DDR4 in cell phones today and that's why DDR4 prices are way too high ($280 for 16GB)?
 
The chips are different, but they are made by the same companies in the same factories, so one affects the other.
 
Yes, cell phones swapping to DDR4 was a major contributing factor.

And while cell phones don't use that much DDR4 compared to say a high end desktop, in a four person household there is likely 1 PC that is a candidate for running DDR4, but everyone in the family has a damn cell phone. The volume on them is significant, and unlike say memory sold for a computer, there is no possibility of reuse - when the phone goes in the pool, the DDR4 dies with it.

In addition to that, there are other sources. High end servers can consume multiple terabytes of memory per server, and lots of clients built high end servers around the Xeon v2/v3 (Sandy/Ivy bridge) era and are just now replacing them. Those servers all used DDR3 in the past, but the newer platforms running DDR4 can get double or quadrouple the memory density per server. Buddy of mine works for HP as a sales engineer, and he's in the middle of a quote for one of his customers to sell twenty server nodes with 8 TB of memory *each*. Those twenty servers alone will consume as much DDR4 as 10k desktops with 16GB of RAM, if my math is right. AMD has also finally moved to DDR4, so whatever subset of the market that was still purchasing AMD based systems are on the DDR4 train now.

Lastly, everything I've read has said that memory manufacturers have *not* ramped production to try and equal demand; they're not opening up more DDR4 factories. There are I'm sure lots of reasons for this, but I cannot imagine the memory vendors were happy when 32 GB of DDR4 sold for $120 (which is what I paid for mine) and I'm sure they're all very sad to be selling it for $400 instead nowadays.
 
sinisterDei said:
Lastly, everything I've read has said that memory manufacturers have *not* ramped production to try and equal demand; they're not opening up more DDR4 factories. There are I'm sure lots of reasons for this, but I cannot imagine the memory vendors were happy when 32 GB of DDR4 sold for $120 (which is what I paid for mine) and I'm sure they're all very sad to be selling it for $400 instead nowadays.
Click to expand...

Excellent reply, thanks
 
sinisterDei said:
Yes, cell phones swapping to DDR4 was a major contributing factor.

And while cell phones don't use that much DDR4 compared to say a high end desktop, in a four person household there is likely 1 PC that is a candidate for running DDR4, but everyone in the family has a damn cell phone. The volume on them is significant, and unlike say memory sold for a computer, there is no possibility of reuse - when the phone goes in the pool, the DDR4 dies with it.

In addition to that, there are other sources. High end servers can consume multiple terabytes of memory per server, and lots of clients built high end servers around the Xeon v2/v3 (Sandy/Ivy bridge) era and are just now replacing them. Those servers all used DDR3 in the past, but the newer platforms running DDR4 can get double or quadrouple the memory density per server. Buddy of mine works for HP as a sales engineer, and he's in the middle of a quote for one of his customers to sell twenty server nodes with 8 TB of memory *each*. Those twenty servers alone will consume as much DDR4 as 10k desktops with 16GB of RAM, if my math is right. AMD has also finally moved to DDR4, so whatever subset of the market that was still purchasing AMD based systems are on the DDR4 train now.

Lastly, everything I've read has said that memory manufacturers have *not* ramped production to try and equal demand; they're not opening up more DDR4 factories. There are I'm sure lots of reasons for this, but I cannot imagine the memory vendors were happy when 32 GB of DDR4 sold for $120 (which is what I paid for mine) and I'm sure they're all very sad to be selling it for $400 instead nowadays.
Click to expand...

The cost per additional bit of capacity is too high for significant expansion and building out capacity too quickly will tank prices and make the sector unprofitable. They are building out capacity to replace lost capacity from node transitions and to keep up with demand, but the days of supply gluts are over (unless China floods the market but I doubt they can do so with competitive products for at least a decade).

DRAM is about to hit a wall and will have to go 3D like NAND to continue improving costs. 3DXP may alleviate some of the demand in the near future and I know Micron has been working on another new memory tech but they haven't disclosed any new information on it in the past year.
 
sinisterDei said:
Yes, cell phones swapping to DDR4 was a major contributing factor.

And while cell phones don't use that much DDR4 compared to say a high end desktop, in a four person household there is likely 1 PC that is a candidate for running DDR4, but everyone in the family has a damn cell phone. The volume on them is significant, and unlike say memory sold for a computer, there is no possibility of reuse - when the phone goes in the pool, the DDR4 dies with it.

In addition to that, there are other sources. High end servers can consume multiple terabytes of memory per server, and lots of clients built high end servers around the Xeon v2/v3 (Sandy/Ivy bridge) era and are just now replacing them. Those servers all used DDR3 in the past, but the newer platforms running DDR4 can get double or quadrouple the memory density per server. Buddy of mine works for HP as a sales engineer, and he's in the middle of a quote for one of his customers to sell twenty server nodes with 8 TB of memory *each*. Those twenty servers alone will consume as much DDR4 as 10k desktops with 16GB of RAM, if my math is right. AMD has also finally moved to DDR4, so whatever subset of the market that was still purchasing AMD based systems are on the DDR4 train now.

Lastly, everything I've read has said that memory manufacturers have *not* ramped production to try and equal demand; they're not opening up more DDR4 factories. There are I'm sure lots of reasons for this, but I cannot imagine the memory vendors were happy when 32 GB of DDR4 sold for $120 (which is what I paid for mine) and I'm sure they're all very sad to be selling it for $400 instead nowadays.
Click to expand...

News seems a bit difficult to find, and I thought I saw some that looked hopeful within the past 2 months or so. It might have been a Digitimes Bits + Chips article about increased yields suggesting better prices Q1 2018). Looking today I found 2 articles worth a glance, but nothing looks like great news in the short term.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/21/china_memory_insource/

http://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html
 
jegbus said:
News seems a bit difficult to find, and I thought I saw some that looked hopeful within the past 2 months or so. It might have been a Digitimes Bits + Chips article about increased yields suggesting better prices Q1 2018). Looking today I found 2 articles worth a glance, but nothing looks like great news in the short term.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/21/china_memory_insource/

http://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html
Click to expand...

Don't expect DRAM prices to drop in the next year; they should continue to rise for the next quarter or two then possibly stay flat for a while. Samsung is building out more capacity but it's merely to keep up with demand. Even with more production, it is less likely to be for PC DRAM instead of mobile and server.
 
Was looking at RAM prices on Dell Optiplex Refurbs and Dell charges an extra $100 from 4GB to 8GB. I couldn't believe it, then I went to Crucial and Newegg and saw 4GB DDR4 2400 sitting at ~$50. Wow, I bought 8GB DDR3 for $50 back in June 2013.

If you follow my logic, maybe RAM prices will come down by 2020. In 2010 I bought 4GB for $120, in 2013 8GB for $50, in 2017 8GB is now $90. So the next minimum hopefully will be 2020.
 
Dk975 said:
Was looking at RAM prices on Dell Optiplex Refurbs and Dell charges an extra $100 from 4GB to 8GB. I couldn't believe it, then I went to Crucial and Newegg and saw 4GB DDR4 2400 sitting at ~$50. Wow, I bought 8GB DDR3 for $50 back in June 2013.

If you follow my logic, maybe RAM prices will come down by 2020. In 2010 I bought 4GB for $120, in 2013 8GB for $50, in 2017 8GB is now $90. So the next minimum hopefully will be 2020.
Click to expand...
Memory upgrades have always been the biggest scam with pre-built systems. Apple is the biggest offender of it. Also they typically give your low speed memory and 1 stick on cheaper systems. So you wouldn't even get dual channel working.
 
I've said it once, I'll say it again:

Super glad I picked up 2x8 of DDR3 for $80 back in late 2015.

I've actually witnessed my "everyday use" exceed 8gb on several occasions recently....
 
Best 170$ kit ever got even if alittle high hands down...and had it up to 3600 if wanted.
 
I was wondering why prices are so high. I was looking for some cheap DDR3 for an old system and was surprised to see how high the prices were.
 
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