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Linux Will Eventually Be Desktop King
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naib
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Windows can't even manage to standardize a desktop environment... A "standard" for one release isn't a Standard it is still changing "but it has a start button" ...that's nice but there are lots of subtle changes as MS moves an awful lot around causing an annoying period of relearning... Windows can't even manage to standardise a package manager... its format keeps changing. A v5 installer won't install on Vista for instance. "but you shouldn't be using vista" is not a counter-argument, as it again will show that the perception of "standard" exists across the population.
Even then you have Steam, Origin, Windows store <insert other 3rd party package manager systems>. Just because it is hidden beneath a thin layer of veneer doesn't change the fact Windows is just as dysfunctional in this regard.
Linux is about choice. If you want KDE you install KDE. If you want GNOME you install GNOME...
A distro at the end of the day is just a group of people with a certain philosophy ... I could take my gentoo install and change it into an Ubuntu IF I wanted to and I had the time...
A package format is like comparing Zip and 7z file formats and saying what it contains is different. I can take a debian file on Gentoo and still "install it" as the underlying data is still ELF for executables. Likewise a distro provides a package manager to facilite a central repository of updated applications... THIS is something only now microsoft is doing with the store ...
Stereodude
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For the most part MS couldn't be trying to push people away any more actively than they are. And yet, despite that Linux still can't gain any appreciable market share. Why? Because they don't want it if it means they have to change.
In general the Linux devs like that it's not super easy to use. They like that the average Windows user can't sit down at Linux and just use it. That's what keeps the riff-raff out and gives them their smug sense of superiority going strong. Until a sizable portion of devs decide to make a distro that is for all intents and purposes as close of a clone to Windows as they can possibly make in terms of feel, layout, organization, and control they're going to be pining away dreaming of the day they're the dominant. Gimp is another perfect example. Sit a Photoshop user in front of Gimp and have them try to use it. Assuming they can actually get done what they want to get done they will promptly tell you afterward that they hate it and hope they never have to use it again.
On the other hand, the Libre Office devs seem to have figured it out. Anyone familiar with MS Office can use Writer or Calc with no problem. They get it and aren't trying to be different for the sake of being different.
Haven't had to do this for a couple of years now. I just use a distro that gives me the option of installing the non-free drivers during setup, like Antergos or Manjaro does.
Fixed that for ya.
I tried using Linux as my desktop in the late 90s, then around 2005 and then again around a year or 2 ago. It's always the same story, different year. Pretty interface that inevitably requires me to jump to CLI and dig through dependency and config file hell to install any simple app or get anything done. Had the issue in the 90s, had the issue today. It's mind blowing and sad to me watch supporters claim their grandparents use a Linux OS without problem. It's a horrible, convoluted mess of an desktop OS for anyone that is not a diehard Linux fan. For whatever reason it doesn't seem that the people who have power to change or make strives to fix this want to even admit it's a problem.
Is Linux a better OS altogether than Windows? Maybe, I'm not going to debate that. Is Windows a far and away more pleasant experience for an end user? This is a resounding yes and the gap hasn't narrowed in 20 years.
Is Linux a better OS altogether than Windows? Maybe, I'm not going to debate that. Is Windows a far and away more pleasant experience for an end user? This is a resounding yes and the gap hasn't narrowed in 20 years.
See, this is gold. Re-read that and ask if the audience Linus is targeting wants to deal with any of that shit.
I can get a one size fits all on my hardware of choice, at an affordable cost that runs everything I want and is point and click. It's not Mac, it's not Linux.
GaryJohnson
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Nobody should have to make that choice. How would you? I mean really those aren't even choices, those are dependencies. Nobody wants GNOME or KDE, they have them because either they need them or because that's what their distro came with.
The layering of dependencies in Linux desktops has gotten stupendously complex. You could spend years trying to figure out what choices to make to get it to do what you want. This is why distros are popular in the first place, because rolling your own is hard.
I was going to take some time to reply to the ridiculous comments about mobile devices taking over, but you said it all much nicer than I was about to. haha!
NickJames
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I believe it's the opposite. People are starting to realize that productivity on mobile devices is shit and are starting to get back into the desktop PC game. The only thing coming close to providing the experience of both is the Surface Pro. My office tried handing out iPads to everyone but they spend more time as coffee coasters. The phone is still the primary source of email correspondent but for everything else Desktop/Laptop is still required even that ratio is pretty large, maybe 10 to 1 on Desktops to Laptop.
Dr. Righteous
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Want a game changer? Here it is:
Microsoft need to develop and distribute their OWN linux distro. Call it MS linux version name Gimpy.
While this may seem to be completely against their grain what better way to get in the game?
What will make it attractive? Office suite included; MS office for Linux. (instead of LibreOffice)
And with Microsoft taking it seriously hardware vendors will start seriously optimizing driver for it.
Now would windows users in droves jump from MS windows to MS linux? No, not really.
Many of the more computer savvy will; but the unwashed masses won't. But MS will have a presents in this world were it didn't before.
Microsoft need to develop and distribute their OWN linux distro. Call it MS linux version name Gimpy.
While this may seem to be completely against their grain what better way to get in the game?
What will make it attractive? Office suite included; MS office for Linux. (instead of LibreOffice)
And with Microsoft taking it seriously hardware vendors will start seriously optimizing driver for it.
Now would windows users in droves jump from MS windows to MS linux? No, not really.
Many of the more computer savvy will; but the unwashed masses won't. But MS will have a presents in this world were it didn't before.
I want KDE as my desktop environment. I don't want GNOME, nor do I want to use GNOME. But the only decent open source finance program is gnucash. Which to install, requires me to install GNOME. I guess ultimately, since it's open source, I could take the gnucash source, and code out the dependencies, but I'm a user, not a programmer, and who has time for that?
Also, most people don't want that low level of choices. Linux desktop choices are not like going to a restaurant and deciding whether you want steak or chicken. It's like having to decide if you want steak from Argentina, Texas, Japan, Canada, and whether it is grass fed, free range, corn fed, with or without anitibiotics, whether it is seared, grilled, or fried, if you want it seasoned with pepper, oregano, cumin, cayenne, secret sauce, if you want it cooked rare, medium rare, medium, medium well, well, extra crispy. Now let's discuss the options you have if you want chicken instead! I JUST WANT FOOD!
Outside of home use, I haven't used a desktop in years. Every company I've worked for just gives a laptop. But other people have already brought up why I think the phone will take over. Right now, you're viewing a phone as a phone, not as a computer. And you're certainly not alone. Microsoft with their Surface is the only company starting to look into turning a tablet into a PC, and at this time, it's still rudimentary. Why can't a phone hook up to my computer monitor or use a keyboard and mouse and a printer? There's nothing stopping it, outside of the companies not seeing the bigger picture. Yes, all that stuff can be accomplished today, as there are apps and hardware for that, but it's not native to the devices. The general audience is tech ignorant, and a company can't guarantee them buying external packages. But sooner or later, an iPhone or Android could come with a docking station that connects your mobile device to your monitor and makes it a computer. I think it will probably be something wireless, so you never even have to remove your phone from your pocket. You'll just have your computer, as we all have phones. The technology is there already. It just requires a company to realize that the market could be created.
naib
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what? that doesnt' even make sense. Not all distro's default to a specific desktop and even then you can CHOOSE what you want ...
A distro has a "prefered default" (unless you go arch,gentoo, lfs but then you wouldn't be a newbie...) so you don't even have to worry about making that choice as the distro maintainers have made an initial choice for you
Ubuntu --> Unity
Kbuntu --> KDE
Mint ---> MATE
Fedora --> GNOME
If you don't like it you can install another ... simply as that (my work Linux box has 3 because different users wanted something else from it: openbox for myself, plasma for another and one is happy with unity)
You seem to forget quite some time ago you could get different "shells" for Windows. Blackbox was available
They
pgwalsh
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I agree that Linux on the Desktop is a bit Forked up. I have 2 desktops and one laptop with Linux, Mac OS X and Windows 10 respectively. I much prefer Linux Mint and OS X over Windows 10. I am not a gamer, but I do development and graphic design etc. There are a few reasons I can't switch to Linux as my sole OS.
- Linux package manager and os upgrades is often fatal.
- Many major apps are not supported like Adobe Photoshop, Illustrator, Ableton Live. Yes there are alternatives, but they're alternatives.
- The system is too easy for an average joe to screw up. They have access to too much.
- The application package names are often obscure and too many fail to be anything but average.
- Utilities for managing networking etc are often cumbersome.
- The community can be harsh if you're not technical enough and that arrogance is often worse than Apple fanboys.
- Non-free software and codecs can be a pita to install. Average person can't deal with it.
Linux supported plug and play long before Microsoft did. I don't know where you got the information that you have to deal with DMAs and IRQs. In fact, Linux has to worry about then Windows since pretty much every driver except the OpenGL driver for 3D graphics is baked into the kernel (e.g. no hunting around for driver disks or a thumbdrive to install your network card).
pgwalsh
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I see your point for the average person. What happens when someone wants to power their 4K 27" monitor? What happens to the developer that has multiple servers running on his computer? I don't see a phone solving the power use dilemma, but maybe in 25 years it will, but where will we be then.
NickJames
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The way I see it, all this technology requires more powerful technology to develop it. You're still going to have a market for PCs for the majority of tech companies.
Mint default is Cinnamon, not Mate.
Shmee
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I was thinking it was time for someone to write this for this year. Next up, Apple doomed, Microsoft doomed, and of course Google doomed.
viscountalpha
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Still relevant.
D
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The day Linux gets dumbed down and standardized enough for the average person to like it, is the same day its top contributors stop developing it. Besides that, If someone made an OSX style Linux (essentially hiding ALL the Linux stuff the average user doesn't understand, just as OSX hides the fact it is BSD), would it even really be Linux anymore? Wouldn't it just be called something else? Linux on the desktop is an OS by programmers for developers. Simple as that.
Desktops and laptops will never be replaced by tablets and phones. They serve completely different roles and you can not get the same functionality with out plugging keyboards and mice into them. The other day I watched a podcasts and the host and guest were talking about all their mac products and how great they are and made comments about who uses Microsoft anymore. It made me think of how if you ask a smoker what percentage of people smoke how they will normally give you a huge way off number like 50% of people. That's how I think of all the linux, mac, phone, and tablet guys. They are so into their products they do not see the reality. Which is Microsoft dominates the global PC market and that very few desktops and laptops are being replaced tablets and phones.
Disposed
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Ok, ill bite...
Do you not see the issue with that statement? You can plug a mouse and keyboard into any tablet. So it can function just like a laptop except that its still a tablet. Theres no legitimate reason tablets cannot replace laptops, desktops is obviously a whole different story but tablets are absolutely poised to replace laptops.
Just look at the surface pro line. I would take a surface pro over a laptop every single time.
Pieter3dnow
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Windows is very very complex as well many many people can't fix their problems , that is why they format and reinstall they don't care what they do wrong every time they just can't fix it ...
Photoshop ? WineHQ - Adobe Photoshop
Why reinvent the wheel if you want to use programs under Linux you can even if they are Windows based.
MS is responsible for hardware sales problem and people do not care about the PC as they used to a lot of them happy with their phone or tablet.
Eventually computer users will get smarter and the bridge between smarter users and "more" user friendly Linux OS will be last step to be taken .....
Yes, because going to an OS that is totally different is exactly what people who whine about tiny UI changes want to do. The lack of logic in your statement is self-evident. You're also implying that the UI in Linux stays static, which is far from the truth. Compare KDE 3 vs 4 or Gnome 2 vs 3, the changes there are about as big as from Windows 95 to 10 and that was just in one version! Even if everyone on earth starts using Linux overnight those same whiny complainers will be there complaining that it's not exactly like whatever they were using before.
Also, Windows 10 doesn't actually contain "spyware" it sends anonymous usage statistics and search information to Microsoft for processing (for Cortana) and statistics. Mac OS X, Android, IOs and Chrome OS all do this as well. So do some Linux distros, Ubuntu for example sends search information to Amazon by default. It mostly just provides reason for people who don't like change or hate Windows anyway to tell others that Windows 10 isn't any good. Coverage of this mostly just shows that Windows is the only OS most people care about.
Wow... this discussion comes up several times a year... and has been doing so for many many years... and I think the last time Linux gained a single point of market share was when Windows Vista came out... then it lost several points when Windows 7 came out. Windows 10 has to be about the biggest privacy invasion since the Greeks sent that horse gift to Troy... yet so many people have accepted it with open arms! Even for all its severe invasions and issues people are still willing to accept Windows over Linux.
The first OS I ever owned was Mandrake Linux (long before it became Mandriva... and then imploded). I have spent many years fighting with linux, from the first implementations of dmRAID (basically what took several months of kernel compiling... yet ran with about 2 hours of work in Windows). Regardless of all the issues Windows has... it has vastly better hardware support... One really easy way to test this is to go to Business Depot and buy one of their fire sale printers... plug it into the same computer and boot Linux... then several weeks later boot Windows and start printing.
This does not even touch on the driver issues with graphics, the insane plethora of rendering platform choices (Xorg, Wayland, DirectFB, Xynth, and a host of others), windowing systems, desktop environments... all of which have nuances that make them incompatible with each other (even simple things like where to find their configs).
Now... if you want to do something truly cool, like split your i5/i7 computer into two or more separate gaming machines and self host multi-player games... you can not even touch Linux with any other software (ex. Linux + qemu or Xen). Having done this it is a truly awesome feature and takes power using Windows to the next level. But again... your not using Linux for anything close to a desktop usage.
Such is my rant...
The first OS I ever owned was Mandrake Linux (long before it became Mandriva... and then imploded). I have spent many years fighting with linux, from the first implementations of dmRAID (basically what took several months of kernel compiling... yet ran with about 2 hours of work in Windows). Regardless of all the issues Windows has... it has vastly better hardware support... One really easy way to test this is to go to Business Depot and buy one of their fire sale printers... plug it into the same computer and boot Linux... then several weeks later boot Windows and start printing.
This does not even touch on the driver issues with graphics, the insane plethora of rendering platform choices (Xorg, Wayland, DirectFB, Xynth, and a host of others), windowing systems, desktop environments... all of which have nuances that make them incompatible with each other (even simple things like where to find their configs).
Now... if you want to do something truly cool, like split your i5/i7 computer into two or more separate gaming machines and self host multi-player games... you can not even touch Linux with any other software (ex. Linux + qemu or Xen). Having done this it is a truly awesome feature and takes power using Windows to the next level. But again... your not using Linux for anything close to a desktop usage.
Such is my rant...
Another excellent and relatable comment.
Disposed
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First off NOBODY FOLLOWS THE GRADING RULES ON WINEHQ! Thats a HUUUUUUGE issue i have with wine and they DO NOT enforce it! You have tons of apps getting gold or better ratings that should be silver or lower according to the grading rules. I have had plenty of lengthy discussions in other forums trying to get people to stop with the stupid grading. (As a basic example, if online functionality is missing from a game/app its supposed to be silver or lower but people will rate it gold+ if it runs decent, or people rating apps platinum that need a dozen workarounds etc.)
WineHQ - Maintainer Rating Definitions
Second off your golden example here is showing the wine ratings for photoshop which show that every version for the last 10 fucking years runs like shit or not at all... BRAVO! Seriously well done, you sure proved that point.
Wine is great! you can (mostly) run photoshop just as long as you are willing to use an 11 year old version!
Gee why is nobody adopting linux again?
Pieter3dnow
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So are you saying here that MS won't sell any of the data gathered through their means to any other party and is only for use of MS itself because that is laughable. They sell data that is the only use for those tools they now made into the OS. They even went so far and made those tools for their other platforms. Something simple as blocking IP of MS in the hosts file to prevent data being sent is not working how much clearer can it be that when users don't wan't this they get forced anyway. No one cares about privacy any more.
KDE never forced users to be shoved into a desktop where everything is done through touch interface rather then mouse and keyboard.
Pieter3dnow
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Disposed
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I see the penguin avatar and your constant defense of linux but you really seem like you are new to linux.
Take a few minutes and go read up on the move from kde 3 to 4...
Done well on mobile? It's really a stretch to call Google's locked down control open source by any means necessary spyware laden version of only Linux at the core they call Android a proper Linux. It violates much of what Linux stood for and is only lumped in so Linux can show some success on something consumer facing, but it really shouldn't count.
Disposed
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OMFG did you even read what you just posted????????????????
Your example is Adobe photoshop CC and all of the ratings say the cloud part dont work.
Do you know what photoshop CC is? Of course you dont... Ill let you figure it out... I will give you a hint if the cloud portion of photoshop creative CLOUD does not function its pretty fucking pointless.
Most of the arguments here boil down to when and not if. Will mobile replace the desktop... I think the answer is yes. What is easy to debate is when. Will it be next year or the year after, 5 years from now or 25 ?
The case that mobile hardware will get to a point where it is "powerful enough" for almost everyone seems pretty clear to me. 5 years ago we would have been talking about terrible omap processors. Today we are talking about chips that are up this year that will likely be pushing 6-8 cores and be on par with shipping mid range intel processors. The industry has been burning R&D money making things smaller... the standard desktop processors are still moving forward, but every cycle the performance gap gets smaller and smaller.
MS has a version of windows that now is capable of running in that space... I would even say their current generation of windows mobile is pretty good as a product. They just haven't handled the market very well the last few years and it has cost them a lot of profit. The future of windows is mobile. They know that, because the future of the desktop is mobile. The only real argument is when that happens.
I am betting that in the next 3-4 years, there will be a slew of products that tip the scale on the mobile/desktop war. I dob't think its 25 or even 10 years out at this point. Apple is likely to start replacing intel chips in their lower range mac books this year. The same A10 chips that will be in those will start showing up in phones and tablets... and the Android world won't be far behind.
There are plenty of possibilities for products that could have major market break through. Will it be a Wireless TV dock for mobile that starts with people streaming their netflix and then reading their emails from their phones to their TVs... or some desktop dock.. or do we have to wait for Augmented reality. It just takes one such product to explode sales wise and the industry will follow the $.
I sound like I hate MS all the time, honestly though I think they may be well placed to jump in on that move. They have done the heavy lifting of getting their Mobile/Desktop OS synced up... even if the last few years have been painful. If they end up being the company that ships a popular game changing device like hololens, they could become relevant very quickly in the mobile market. I just don't think they could afford to have Apple or the Google hardware vendors be the guys to get to that next big game changer product first.
The case that mobile hardware will get to a point where it is "powerful enough" for almost everyone seems pretty clear to me. 5 years ago we would have been talking about terrible omap processors. Today we are talking about chips that are up this year that will likely be pushing 6-8 cores and be on par with shipping mid range intel processors. The industry has been burning R&D money making things smaller... the standard desktop processors are still moving forward, but every cycle the performance gap gets smaller and smaller.
MS has a version of windows that now is capable of running in that space... I would even say their current generation of windows mobile is pretty good as a product. They just haven't handled the market very well the last few years and it has cost them a lot of profit. The future of windows is mobile. They know that, because the future of the desktop is mobile. The only real argument is when that happens.
I am betting that in the next 3-4 years, there will be a slew of products that tip the scale on the mobile/desktop war. I dob't think its 25 or even 10 years out at this point. Apple is likely to start replacing intel chips in their lower range mac books this year. The same A10 chips that will be in those will start showing up in phones and tablets... and the Android world won't be far behind.
There are plenty of possibilities for products that could have major market break through. Will it be a Wireless TV dock for mobile that starts with people streaming their netflix and then reading their emails from their phones to their TVs... or some desktop dock.. or do we have to wait for Augmented reality. It just takes one such product to explode sales wise and the industry will follow the $.
I sound like I hate MS all the time, honestly though I think they may be well placed to jump in on that move. They have done the heavy lifting of getting their Mobile/Desktop OS synced up... even if the last few years have been painful. If they end up being the company that ships a popular game changing device like hololens, they could become relevant very quickly in the mobile market. I just don't think they could afford to have Apple or the Google hardware vendors be the guys to get to that next big game changer product first.
Still haven't had a single customer ask to migrate to Linux. Windows is just supposedly soo bad but...customers would rather keep it.
Had a few move to OSX...then they came back as proper business support for OSX is non-existent in most areas. The Apple Store moves in and takes 60% of the bread and butter business and then the kit is harder to repair so the OSX support guys give up. Then you are limited to iTunes support and whether or not you dropped it in the toilet. If you ask them to help with making a macbook work with anything non-Apple the Apple Store doesn't want to know.That's what has happened in my city. It's why Apple will never be more than 10% as it's not serious computing other than a few small niche areas.
95% of Macbook users could get away with a $200 Chromebook. You look next time you see a bunch of hipsters all sitting in a hotel lobby slurping the wi-fi through their dozens of Macbooks. None of them are doing anything serious.
Had a few move to OSX...then they came back as proper business support for OSX is non-existent in most areas. The Apple Store moves in and takes 60% of the bread and butter business and then the kit is harder to repair so the OSX support guys give up. Then you are limited to iTunes support and whether or not you dropped it in the toilet. If you ask them to help with making a macbook work with anything non-Apple the Apple Store doesn't want to know.That's what has happened in my city. It's why Apple will never be more than 10% as it's not serious computing other than a few small niche areas.
95% of Macbook users could get away with a $200 Chromebook. You look next time you see a bunch of hipsters all sitting in a hotel lobby slurping the wi-fi through their dozens of Macbooks. None of them are doing anything serious.